Quote:
Originally Posted by BigDan35
I know everyone wants this building to happen. So, for the realists, what do you guys think are the actual chances of this building starting construction in the next: 2,3,4 years?
Does this building have a better chance than a lot of other proposals in Philly and around the US for certain reasons or does it stand the same chance as any other building?
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I think this has a very real chance of getting built for several reasons.
1) From what I understood, as soon as the zoning change is passed by City Council, the developer can begin to sign tenants "within a week". From people on the inside that work closer with Garrett, it sounds like they have people waiting in the wings ready to sign leases. That's not confirmed, but that's what I gathered from their language and haste.
2) The development cycle for a project of this scale is usually 6 to 8 years from proposal to end of construction, so the financing issues with a frozen credit market may be in much better shape.
3) This has strong support from Mayor Nutter, most of the PCPC, and a large percentage of the neighborhood (minus the 80-year-old NIMBYs)
4) That pension fund already has the financing up...they're not relying on banks for a large percentage of their construction cost.
5) Construction could begin at the end of the recession where material costs and labor are cheaper than they would otherwise be. If this building was in the stage that the Chicago Spire is in - ready to build now - then I think it would have a real chance of not happening.
6) This is a mixed use building and not solely reliant on a single type of tenant like other major projects around the country (i.e. Chicago Spire: 100% residential, big mistake; The Freedom Tower: Offices and mired in political delays). The mixed-use aspect is important because it engages the pedestrian extremely well and it has lots of public space, something that the PCPC and the city in general likes.
7) It's going to be directly linked to regional rail, something that is on the up and not down. The LEED certification is huge as well, and it's something the city can boast about in tandem with the Comcast
Center.
8) The real estate market is in MUCH better shape here than in many other areas of the country...this isn't Miami, Phoenix or Southern California.
It has a majority of the funding and what seems to be tenants waiting in the wings. I am expecting a lot of activity after December 3rd if they pass the zoning restructuring (which I think they will).