Alberta Politics II

[Cage]

Going into the prewrit election period, the UCP has a chance to sweep Calgary, leaving the NDP with on 6-9 seats in Edmonton.

Get Out The Vote (GOTV) is critical for both the UCP and the NDP. The UCP have to contend with complacency in the rural and suburban ridings; coupled with close races in both Edmonton Henday Belt and inner city ridings. For the NDP they have to invigorate the far left into holding their noses and voting NDP rather than staying home and not voting for Canada’s most centrist NDP. The NDP also have to fend off the centrist attack from the Alberta Party the ABP could pull enough centrist or UCP protest votes away from the NDP (compared to 2015).

[Cage]

The polls show that Albertans are ready for change at the provincial govt stage. The UCP has held onto the combined WR + PCAA vote and has the largest segment of accessible voters.

The biggest problem for the UCP will be conservative apathy.

A close second UCP problem is a desire by some conservatives to not have another super majority easily handed to Kenney and co. This type of conservative voter doesn’t agree with NDP or ABP policies and values, but is still inclined to vote for an expected opposition party simply have a strong opposition party in the legislature. This type of voter wants to see the UCP platform in order to find a reason to not vote UCP.

[Cage]

The biggest NDP problem is they have least number of accessible voters available to them. The NDP need to grow their voter share in order to counter the combination of WR+PCAA. Having the fewest number of accessible voters is a big problem.

The largest source of new voters is people who didn’t vote in the last election. However this group is a hodge podge of inaccessible voters. People who hate politics and all politicians. People who have unique view on politics or have an unpopular idea close to them (ie people who view an Alberta PST as a good idea, or want to abolish party system in favour of 87 independent MLAs). Attempting to activate this group of voters usually ousts a larger group of existing supporters without enlarging the voter base.

Having to run on their record is the last of the firsts for the AB NDP. It’s also their second biggest problem while they have made a larger number of really good attempts, they don’t have many successes.

The third problem for Alberta NDP, they have to contend with opposing views of the federal main NDP. It’s a very real problem that Jagmeet Singh and Rachel Notley will be fighting for their political lives this spring. The primary benefactors a civil war in the NDP Party is the Federal Liberal Party, which can consolidate their left of Center position in Ontario, Quebec, and BC.

[suburbia]

Whoa!

Jason Kenny was listing a home his mother had already sold as his Calgary home so that his home base in Ottawa could be subsidized by Canadian tax payers.

Later, he changed his home address to his mother's assisted living facility, where he would not legally be allowed to live, so that he could continue his scam defrauding Canadians.

Now Kenny is claiming he lived in the basement, but the unit has no basement and only those who are approved for the facility by Alberta Health Services may live there:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...ence-1.4985648

Looks like the lawyer who outed him is being sent death threats by the UCP faithful:
https://twitter.com/kylemmorrow/stat...60271007858689

[itom 987]

I loathe the UCP.

[mintzilla]

I really had hoped the NDP could have loosened our lame ass archaic Puritan Christian liquor laws a bit here while they are in power but it seems time is running out.

[PPAR]

I will venture a prediction.

As the election approaches the picture for the NDP will look increasingly bleak. There will be much talk of a wipeout. However, as the campaign winds down there will have been a series of UCP Missteps and the final result will have a UCP victory but a strong (30 some seats) NDP opposition.

[Rollerstud98]

I've been wondering for a while how Notley will respond to the energy industry if she is no longer premier. Will she go back to protesting?

[PPAR]

Notley could be the Federal Liberal Natural Resources Minister in 10 months, all she would need do is ask.
(No idea if she would actually consider this.)

[Corndogger]

Originally Posted by PPAR

Notley could be the Federal Liberal Natural Resources Minister in 10 months, all she would need do is ask.
(No idea if she would actually consider this.)

I'd say way sooner than that. Reality is hitting the Liberals and they know that they need the extra revenue to fund all of their schemes. They'll make sure TMX gets passed and by having Notley in charge of that department they'll be able to score points against the Conservatives at the federal and AB level. Notley's got nothing to lose by taking the position as she's already done the be a leader of a party with just few seats gig.

[Cage]

Originally Posted by PPAR

Notley could be the Federal Liberal Natural Resources Minister in 10 months, all she would need do is ask.
(No idea if she would actually consider this.)

There are two viable paths for Notley to go to Ottawa.

(1) As you suggest; The PM offers up a fast path to Federal Cabinet ahead of the October federal Election by asking Randy Boissonault to step aside in YEG Centre, quick by-election and then immediate Cabinet appointment. Another option is to ask Amerjeet Sohi to step aside, but that could give Liberals a black eye.
(2) A second path involves Jagmeet Singh losing in Burnaby-South and then getting ousted by Caucus. This would involve Notley retiring from her seat to run for the Federal NDP leadership. This is a lot messier option as its not certain the Federal NDP would take to Notley given pro-pipeline stance. Also I don't know how good Notley's conversational french.

All the above is dependent on how many seats the NDP wins. If the get over 20 seats, Notley will stay on. To get to 20 seats I'm seeing 12 YEG, 4 YYC, 4 Rural Alberta. This would provide the AB NDP with enough coverage to rebuild in four years.

If the day after election we wake up to an 8 member Alberta Caucus, its likely to look like this: Notley, Bilious, Ceci, Ganley, Hoffman, Irwin, Phillips, Shepherd. In this instance, prepare for a hard left turn as the NDP leadership contest will be Bilious vs Shannon Phillips Seymour of Sarah Hoffman.

[240glt]

Notley has said she will stay on as an MLA and leader of the NDP even if the party fails to form government after the next election. I'd be exceptionally disappointed if she pulled a Prentice and took her ball and went home if the election didn't go her way. I feel she has much more integrity than him so I am hoping she does not do that.

[Cage]

Originally Posted by 240glt

Notley has said she will stay on as an MLA and leader of the NDP even if the party fails to form government after the next election. I'd be exceptionally disappointed if she pulled a Prentice and took her ball and went home if the election didn't go her way. I feel she has much more integrity than him so I am hoping she does not do that.

The NDP are very much into a fall back and regroup in YEG strategy, they don't have any competitive game outside of YEG, 6 ridings in YYC and 2 ridings in YQL.

How bad is it? In recent financial disclosures and for pre-writ filings with Elections Alberta, 17 local NDP constituency associations (8 suburban YYC, 9 rural Southern AB) have Roari Richardson (Notley Chief of Staff) as President and William Gammon (Erin Babcock partner/spouse) as CFO. This means no local organizational capability for 20% of the province.

For this Election, Notley is all the NDP got. She has to say that she will stay on otherwise the caucus will get decimated back to 4 MLAs. Just like Kenney has to also say he has no federal conservative party leadership aspirations.

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by PPAR

I will venture a prediction.

As the election approaches the picture for the NDP will look increasingly bleak. There will be much talk of a wipeout. However, as the campaign winds down there will have been a series of UCP Missteps and the final result will have a UCP victory but a strong (30 some seats) NDP opposition.

However it goes, I think there is a very high likelihood of a minority government either way.

If you take off the UCP and NDP labels, I think Notely has actually done a pretty good job in contrast to how many mis-steps Kenney's team has already made and his history of anti-LGBTQ2 comments and extremist alliances.

If Kenney somehow manages a majority, we're in trouble, because the "unite the right" campaign made progressive conservatives swallow accepting extremists right wingers in, trading that for a majority possibility. This means the strings will actually be held by the extreme right wing (not unlike what has happened in the US) and you'll potentially have decisions made on all our behalf that will be very regretful and painful at the end of the day.

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by Cage

There are two viable paths for Notley to go to Ottawa.

(1) As you suggest; The PM offers up a fast path to Federal Cabinet ahead of the October federal Election by asking Randy Boissonault to step aside in YEG Centre, quick by-election and then immediate Cabinet appointment. Another option is to ask Amerjeet Sohi to step aside, but that could give Liberals a black eye.
(2) A second path involves Jagmeet Singh losing in Burnaby-South and then getting ousted by Caucus. This would involve Notley retiring from her seat to run for the Federal NDP leadership. This is a lot messier option as its not certain the Federal NDP would take to Notley given pro-pipeline stance. Also I don't know how good Notley's conversational french.

All the above is dependent on how many seats the NDP wins. If the get over 20 seats, Notley will stay on. To get to 20 seats I'm seeing 12 YEG, 4 YYC, 4 Rural Alberta. This would provide the AB NDP with enough coverage to rebuild in four years.

If the day after election we wake up to an 8 member Alberta Caucus, its likely to look like this: Notley, Bilious, Ceci, Ganley, Hoffman, Irwin, Phillips, Shepherd. In this instance, prepare for a hard left turn as the NDP leadership contest will be Bilious vs Shannon Phillips Seymour of Sarah Hoffman.

While all are getting well ahead of themselves, particularly with the provincial NDP doing frankly way better than the maligned right wing had expected. Even if she loses, high chances she'll hold the strings in a UCP minority OR will be head of a pretty strong opposition.

Further, #2 is an impossibility no matter how you cut it given that supporters of the Federal NDP absolutely do not like or agree with Notely.

[suburbia]

The bigger question in my mind is what will happen with the devastated Federal Cons. You can say what you want about Singh, but Scheer has not done much for the Cons either. You'll all recall that Kenney made a trip to India immediately before Scheer went there. The reason? Kenney had to explain and introduce Scheer to the Indian leaders, and convince them to even meet Scheer. He was prepping the ground. So why the heck would a prospective AB leader spend his time on that front? Let me tell ya', the Federal Cons want Kenney back. There is no doubt he has broad following nationally, and what happens in the next while will dictate what path Kenney will take back to the Federal Cons. There is no doubt that currently they'd offer up deputy to Scheer, and after the next Federal election (which the Cons look destined to lose royally) Kenney would take over leadership.

[Cage]

Originally Posted by suburbia

While all are getting well ahead of themselves, particularly with the provincial NDP doing frankly way better than the maligned right wing had expected. Even if she loses, high chances she'll hold the strings in a UCP minority OR will be head of a pretty strong opposition.

Further, #2 is an impossibility no matter how you cut it given that supporters of the Federal NDP absolutely do not like or agree with Notely.

The provincial NDP have held steady at 27-33% in the polls for the past 18 months. The mathematical problem is the UCP has held 48-55% since inception. This is going to be a landslide for the UCP, nobody is currently predicting any other result. The worst the UCP could do is a smaller majority government.

Another data point, this weeks financial disclosure revealed the NDP have no local constituency organization in 8 YYC and 9 S Alb ridings. The Calgary ridings are: Falconridge, Foothills, Hays, Lougheed, North, Peigan, Southeast, and West. The S AB ridings are Airdrie-East, Cardston Siksika, Drumheller Stettler, Highwood, Innisfail Sylvan Lake, Livingston MacLeod, Rimby Rocky Mountain House, Taber Warner, Vermillion Lloydminster (okay this one's not Southern AB). In each of these 17 ridings the President is Roari Richardson (Notley's Chief of Staff) and the CFO is William Gammon (Erin Babcock's spouse. Erin is MLA for Stony Plain-Spruce Grove).

In 20% of ridings the NDP has no local organization.

Originally Posted by suburbia

The bigger question in my mind is what will happen with the devastated Federal Cons. You can say what you want about Singh, but Scheer has not done much for the Cons either. You'll all recall that Kenney made a trip to India immediately before Scheer went there. The reason? Kenney had to explain and introduce Scheer to the Indian leaders, and convince them to even meet Scheer. He was prepping the ground. So why the heck would a prospective AB leader spend his time on that front? Let me tell ya', the Federal Cons want Kenney back. There is no doubt he has broad following nationally, and what happens in the next while will dictate what path Kenney will take back to the Federal Cons. There is no doubt that currently they'd offer up deputy to Scheer, and after the next Federal election (which the Cons look destined to lose royally) Kenney would take over leadership.

Kenney's trip to india was planned after Scheer organized his trip. However the Kenney/Panda/Dreeshen did travel to India prior to Scheer.

Cons and Liberals are neck and neck in the polls and Ontario is cracking open for CPC. Things will be tighter for the Liberals this time round compared to the 2015 election.

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by Cage

The provincial NDP have held steady at 27-33% in the polls for the past 18 months. The mathematical problem is the UCP has held 48-55% since inception. This is going to be a landslide for the UCP, nobody is currently predicting any other result. The worst the UCP could do is a smaller majority government.

Another data point, this weeks financial disclosure revealed the NDP have no local constituency organization in 8 YYC and 9 S Alb ridings. The Calgary ridings are: Falconridge, Foothills, Hays, Lougheed, North, Peigan, Southeast, and West. The S AB ridings are Airdrie-East, Cardston Siksika, Drumheller Stettler, Highwood, Innisfail Sylvan Lake, Livingston MacLeod, Rimby Rocky Mountain House, Taber Warner, Vermillion Lloydminster (okay this one's not Southern AB). In each of these 17 ridings the President is Roari Richardson (Notley's Chief of Staff) and the CFO is William Gammon (Erin Babcock's spouse. Erin is MLA for Stony Plain-Spruce Grove).

NDP support being consolidated in specific ridings is not a negative, but a positive for them.

Originally Posted by Cage

Kenney's trip to india was planned after Scheer organized his trip. However the Kenney/Panda/Dreeshen did travel to India prior to Scheer.

Request was made, and Kenney obliged. I'm unclear if there was any actual Alberta angle there whatsoever, but there was absolutely waxing the wheels for Scheer, who was (and remains in large part) a major unknown in India. It is mind-blowing that an opposition leader of a provincial party take time out for such a long distance federal wheel house trip.

Originally Posted by Cage

Cons and Liberals are neck and neck in the polls and Ontario is cracking open for CPC. Things will be tighter for the Liberals this time round compared to the 2015 election.

Ontario is being hurt for them by Ford. The fact Ford is appointing his friends to leading positions is not looking very good at all. Meanwhile, the Cons have had zero in-roads in Quebec. Zero.

I know many, many Cons that are praying for Kenney to get back into Federal politics. On the provincial side, there was huge frustration with the Cons machinery when he was not able to unseat Mayor Nenshi. I suspect Kenney himself had a few days there were he wondered if he had made the right decision bowing out of the Federal side of things.

[suburbia]

I've posted this in the Calgary economy thread, but this has much relevance (possibly more) to Alberta provincial and federal politics and voting.

---
This is a fascinating long'ish read, and has great interactive graphics and a short podcast that will interest many. It is based on two years worth of extensive polling data, and tracks views regarding economy depending on age, gender, provincial voting, municipal voting and education level. The skinny of it is that much of this stuff drive beliefs on views of the economy more than data and evidence. Specifically, it found that if you are a UCP member, for example, your view of the economy trend over the last year is far, far worse than the actual economic data suggests.

Why Calgarians' perceptions of the economy are 'more negative than the reality'
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...ling-1.4995703

Would love more discussion about this, particularly the specific data and the parallel to zombie voting as we've seen particularly in the US and particularly on the extreme right. This is where people vote irrespective of facts or how good or bad the current leadership of their historic political affiliation is. Rob Anders come to mind - how did that guy get elected so many times?

[Cage]

Originally Posted by suburbia

Why Calgarians' perceptions of the economy are 'more negative than the reality'
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...ling-1.4995703

Would love more discussion about this, particularly the specific data and the parallel to zombie voting as we've seen particularly in the US and particularly on the extreme right. This is where people vote irrespective of facts or how good or bad the current leadership of their historic political affiliation is. Rob Anders come to mind - how did that guy get elected so many times?

Economists and statisticians have a very hard time collecting data about quality of jobs. Their data points are part-time, full-time, and contract. They cannot, for instance, measure whether the job is full time geophysicist or full time fast food manager.

Economists and statisticians cant handle the forward looking aspects of peoples perceptions. This is impacted by the dramatic rise in contract jobs that are fueling the economic recovery over the traditional full time or permanent part time work. For example, its hard to plan a summer vacation if your contract is up April 30th. For people on continuous short term full time contracts, their economic situation improves but they don't feel it because disaster is a contract cancellation away.

The much larger proportion of civil service drives economic stability in Edmonton's economy. Coupled with the Health, education, and other public sector supported jobs; their perception of a better economy is holding true in Edmonton. In Calgary, which has almost no provincial public service, the private sector only job market is feeling the most of the energy recession.

In the political realm, the factors of quality of employment and future prospects are way much more important than the rear view mirror approach used by economists and statisticians. For the person on a short term contract whose friends and family have been in and out of work for the past 3 years; they are still very nervous and pessimistic about the economy. Things have gotten better in the past 18 months, but better is defined as a lower pay job that is frequently on short term contract where in a contract extension is not certain.