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  #21  
Old Posted Oct 28, 2008, 6:32 PM
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Yep. Plus whatever the amount of FCC that BMO takes up, and Scotiabank in Scotia Centre, both combined are probably close to another million square feet.
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  #22  
Old Posted Oct 28, 2008, 6:40 PM
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Originally Posted by 240glt View Post
^ One could argue that Calgary wouldn't be the western Canadian banking centre if it wasn't for the O & G industry.
Exactly. Most of the major western regional bank offices were in Winnipeg for much of the 1900's before they moved to Calgary. I am sure that if market conditions dictated it, they might decide to move again, or consolidate offices elsewhere.

Certainly banks should never be considered anything but "fair weather" businesses...

Winnipeg already learned that lesson.
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  #23  
Old Posted Oct 28, 2008, 6:59 PM
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CP Rail alone occupies 1 million SF in Gulf Canada Square. 3 million SF is a fraction of what much smaller cities such as Halifax and Winnipeg have - even though Calgary is the financial centre for Western Canada. Then there are all the other downtown tenants such as law and accounting firms, business services etc...Bankers Hall for example (2 million SF in both towers) is mostly banking, financial and business services. Again, the numbers just don't add up.
I tend to agree. The numbers could be off. You've got insurance companies in there as well. Standard Life, Sun Life, Sovereign, etc... that have large amounts of space. The banks are pretty much here because of O&G.

There's no doubt that Calgary's downtown office space is dominated by O&G at them moment, but all of this building, will help diversify Calgary in the future.

-For example look at companies like Shaw. They got a sweet deal on their building when the bought it from Shell at a time when vacancy rates were high.

-Take CP, one of the benefits of Calgary that helped sway CP to move was the fact that they could get 1 Million sq ft of office space in one building.

-Calgary's infrastructure from a telecom perspective is the best in western Canada. Much of that is a result of the O&G industry, but it will help in diversification.
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  #24  
Old Posted Oct 28, 2008, 7:15 PM
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Originally Posted by 240glt View Post
^ One could argue that Calgary wouldn't be the western Canadian banking centre if it wasn't for the O & G industry.

A few exceptions asside (Like CP, which incidentally is tied to the resource industries as well) it's fair to say that the vast majority of Calgary's DT offices are either directly or indirectly linked to O & G. Having been in most of those office towers at some point in the last 7 years, it's pretty obvious who the tenants are and why they're there.
CP and banks are not directly tied to O & G. They may be here partially because of O & G, or do much business with O & G companies, however they are still not part of that industry. Just look at the logos on many of those downtown towers - BMO, Scotiabank, TD, Sun Life, Standard Life, HP, Bell, Telus...

Not denying that most of our DT office space is O & G - of course it is. Just saying that the 30 out of 33 million figure is off - probably way off. I would bet more like 20 - 25 million.
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  #25  
Old Posted Oct 28, 2008, 7:17 PM
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^ I agree that is plausable.

But there's no doubt the banks are tied to O & G. CP is insofar as it does lots of business with mining and other resource industries.
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  #26  
Old Posted Oct 28, 2008, 10:24 PM
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Originally Posted by wild wild west View Post
I'm calling BS on that statistic. You can't tell me that the Western HQs of the major Canadian banks, as well as various foreign banks with offices in Calgary, the Headquarters of CP Rail, Shaw, all the law, accounting, IT, architecture and engineering firms and all other non-O&G industry employment in the downtown core occupies a measly 3 million square feet? No effing way.
Don't forget the City itself. I am assuming the Municipal Building is counted in office space totals. Plus, they hold space in a few other buildings down town as well (Palliser Square 1, Public Building, etc.).
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  #27  
Old Posted Oct 29, 2008, 1:29 PM
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Don't forget the City itself. I am assuming the Municipal Building is counted in office space totals. Plus, they hold space in a few other buildings down town as well (Palliser Square 1, Public Building, etc.).
Absolutely. There is quite a bit of public sector space (which probably isn't included in the totals) such as the Municipal Bldg, Harry hayes and of course the new Courthouse...probably good for at least a couple million SF (1 million in the Courthouse alone). And The City leases space in surrounding buildings such as Rocky Mountain Plaza as well.
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  #28  
Old Posted Oct 29, 2008, 3:26 PM
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Even at the height of the boom, non-energy companies were building distribution centres in Calgary, due to its strategic location and good infrastructure base. There has to be a reason Wal-Mart put its northern plains distribution centre in calgary, and not in lower cost locations further down the railway/highway. Same with Canadian Tire, and many other smaller businesses.

I think when outsiders look at Calgary, they only see oil. When oil and gas were in the doldrums in the 1990s, Alberta still had the highest GDP per capita in the country.

I think also that the cyclical nature of the industry is not well understood from the outside. It isn't depression when prices are down, it just is like the rest of Canada normally is. There aren't mass layoffs like we have seen in financials in the USA and there isn't going to be.
3 comments that sum up the inanity of this thread, and the stupidity of all these chicken littles who seem to think that Calgary is about to become a ghost town.

Calgary's year-over-year population went down once. Singular. Uno. I've been in far more diversified cities that did it for 15 years straight. "The worst economic bust" happens and the city barely blinks.
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  #29  
Old Posted Oct 29, 2008, 3:46 PM
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If the government ever stopped being so anal and started allowing more foreign banks to enter Canada and compete, I just have this hunch that they may look to Calgary to set up their foreign subsidiary. Bring on a new Citibank and Bank of America tower. Of course the probability of this happening now especially with the big American banks struggling just to stay solvent is nearly 0, but you never know sometime in the future perhaps.
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  #30  
Old Posted Oct 29, 2008, 5:26 PM
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Hmm... I have to admit, considering just where things are in the finance world right now, I'm pretty damned pleased at how the federal government regulates our banking industry.

You do NOT want US or UK (to pick examples of folks I've been talking with recently) banks in Canada. While we in Calgary are all worried that oil might dip a bit more and fewer Lexuses will be sold in 2009, Americans and Brits are actively planning for unemployment by the millions. It's a whole different world out there right now.

A swanky supertall isn't much concession if it means opening up our financial system to the shit that was October 2008.
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  #31  
Old Posted Oct 29, 2008, 6:23 PM
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Diversification only reduces volatility it does not inherently promote growth. A relatively stagnant city can have a very diversified economy (ex. Winnipeg), but still grow far less quickly than one more exposed to business cycles. A more important quality than diversification is agility - i.e. the ability to constantly change direction in order to seize opportunities. Calgary with a young, ambitious and highly trained white collar workforce is well positioned, especially given that much of its economy consists of small business and the self employed. Cities that rely on blue collar industries, government and large business may be more stable economically, but also more lethargic. Besides, boom and bust is far more exciting than boring steady as you go.
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  #32  
Old Posted Oct 29, 2008, 6:41 PM
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Diversification only reduces volatility it does not inherently promote growth. A relatively stagnant city can have a very diversified economy (ex. Winnipeg), but still grow far less quickly than one more exposed to business cycles. A more important quality than diversification is agility - i.e. the ability to constantly change direction in order to seize opportunities. Calgary with a young, ambitious and highly trained white collar workforce is well positioned, especially given that much of its economy consists of small business and the self employed. Cities that rely on blue collar industries, government and large business may be more stable economically, but also more lethargic. Besides, boom and bust is far more exciting than boring steady as you go.
Excellent points. The high level of educational attainment in particular bodes well for Calgary's ability to ride out economic turbulence. The large number of engineers, MBA's etc. provides a skilled workforce with a lot of expertise that can apply to fields other than oil and gas.

And it is certainly true that there really isn't much correlation between economic diversification and growth. If I recall correctly, Canada's 3 most economically diversified big cities are (in whatever order) Edmonton, Winnipeg and Montreal. Of those, only Edmonton is what I would consider to be a fast-growing city.
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  #33  
Old Posted Oct 31, 2008, 7:48 PM
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I just have this hunch that they may look to Calgary to set up their foreign subsidiary. Bring on a new Citibank and Bank of America tower.
and move their Canadian operations from Toronto? I guess anything is possible but, I certianly wouldn't be betting on that hunch.
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  #34  
Old Posted Oct 31, 2008, 10:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Spring2008 View Post
If the government ever stopped being so anal and started allowing more foreign banks to enter Canada and compete, I just have this hunch that they may look to Calgary to set up their foreign subsidiary. Bring on a new Citibank and Bank of America tower. Of course the probability of this happening now especially with the big American banks struggling just to stay solvent is nearly 0, but you never know sometime in the future perhaps.
Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Merrill Lynch (now part of Bank of America) already have some investment banking operations in Calgary. Lehman did as well but we all know how that ended. Obviously the retail and commercial banking side that would bring in a lot of employees is not here.
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  #35  
Old Posted Nov 1, 2008, 8:41 PM
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Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Merrill Lynch (now part of Bank of America) already have some investment banking operations in Calgary. Lehman did as well but we all know how that ended. Obviously the retail and commercial banking side that would bring in a lot of employees is not here.
If you talk to people on the Investment Banking side, the overwelming majority of there business interests were tied to the oil sands projects. Multi-billion dollar finance projects are very profitable for them.

If these major oil projects don't gop forward I'd expect many of the Investment Banking offices to reconsider operations. OR to state it another way .. they are here for the $130 oil... not $65 oil.
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  #36  
Old Posted Nov 2, 2008, 1:39 AM
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If these major oil projects don't gop forward I'd expect many of the Investment Banking offices to reconsider operations. OR to state it another way .. they are here for the $130 oil... not $65 oil.
They only moved up here with incredibly short notice, for a short several month period?

Man, you'd think oil was over $100 for YEARS the way people talk (and act) lately - not the seven months that it was in reality. Shit, oil was below $130 just 2 months after it first reached that level.

But, I guess this is what you get when a bunch of 23 year olds who can't follow history past last night's Idol are running a bunch of the financial world (I only wish I was joking).
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  #37  
Old Posted Nov 2, 2008, 4:35 PM
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If you talk to people on the Investment Banking side, the overwelming majority of there business interests were tied to the oil sands projects. Multi-billion dollar finance projects are very profitable for them.

If these major oil projects don't gop forward I'd expect many of the Investment Banking offices to reconsider operations. OR to state it another way .. they are here for the $130 oil... not $65 oil.
Morgan Stanley, Citibank, Lehman, Credit Suisse and others all moved into Calgary around early 2005 when oil was around the $50-60 mark.

I was personally involved in helping them set setup to start trading Natural Gas at the time and know many commodities traders that left their jobs at more traditional trading floors to start trading for these investment banks.

The comment about them only being here for $130 oil is VERY incorrect.
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  #38  
Old Posted Nov 2, 2008, 4:50 PM
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But, I guess this is what you get when a bunch of 23 year olds who can't follow history past last night's Idol are running a bunch of the financial world (I only wish I was joking).
Because age alone dictates ones ability to asses the past, and operate in the present.
Ignorant comment....
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  #39  
Old Posted Nov 2, 2008, 5:33 PM
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Because age alone dictates ones ability to asses the past, and operate in the present.
Ignorant comment....
It's only ignorant when it's not true.

Of course, intentional hyperbole and sarcasm is usually lost on most people anyway.
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  #40  
Old Posted Nov 3, 2008, 7:10 PM
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Originally Posted by freeweed View Post
They only moved up here with incredibly short notice, for a short several month period?

Man, you'd think oil was over $100 for YEARS the way people talk (and act) lately - not the seven months that it was in reality. Shit, oil was below $130 just 2 months after it first reached that level.

But, I guess this is what you get when a bunch of 23 year olds who can't follow history past last night's Idol are running a bunch of the financial world (I only wish I was joking).
As I work in the industry .. I can assure you there has been significant expansion of Investment Banking in the city in the last 3 years. Thats not to say it didnd't exsist before 2005, but it has grown a great deal since.

I guess you are among the 23 yr old who can't follow history... even if it is very rescent.

This is not to say that everyone will be closing shop... but they will be looking to trim if major business financing is no longer required.... or even availiable for that matter.
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