DENVER | Transportation Thread

[TakeFive]

Speaking of Greater Greater Washington it looks like Cirrus has been out shaking hands and kissing babies.

Va. reaches landmark $154M Metro funding deal

[Cirrus]

You have no idea.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by Cirrus

You have no idea.

I can only imagine.


If it's good enough for D.C.
then it must be even better for Arlington, Texas?

Texas town ditches its bus service for ride-sharing app Via
Mar 12, 2018 By Andrew J. Hawkins/The Verge

It’s the latest evidence of US cities forgoing investments in public transportation in favor of partnerships with privately held technology startups.

Under the deal, residents of Arlington, Texas, who own a smartphone can use Via’s app to summon one of 10 commuter vans that will be operating primarily in the city’s downtown area. Fares will only be $3 a ride, or $10 for a weekly pass, thanks to direct subsidies from the city. Via will replace a fleet of charter buses that had been operating in Arlington for four years.

So does this make traditional transit obsolete?

Arlington mayor Jeff Williams said, “Absolutely. I think with the new technology that’s coming on you’re going to see very little light rail built because this is so much cheaper.”

So far as being cheaper - highly unlikely - but to date Uber doesn't even know what it needs to charge to actually make money.

I'm still trying to sort out how all this will work in the future. My best guess is that ride sharing can provide a first mile, last mile assist to light rail but is more of a threat to clunky, unpredictable buses. But it would work best I'd think during non-peak hours when having a bus with 2 or a few riders is decidedly not very efficient.

[Cirrus]

Arlington TX was famous for years as being the largest city in America without even a local bus network. So it's not exactly surprising they're taking the first opportunity to bail.

For the adults at the table, we're still talking about ride-hailing as something that replaces very low-ridership/frequency buses, but not main lines. Ride-hailing generates more trips per person than normal owner-occupied driving does, meaning it generates more congestion, so it really cannot replace main line transit.

Arlington TX just doesn't have any main line transit.

[TakeFive]

RTD, transit workers union agree to new contract that could help alleviate driver woes
March 13, 2018 by Esteban L. Hernandez/Denverite

The Regional Transportation District is banking on higher wages and improved benefits introduced by a new collective bargaining agreement to help attract bus and train operators in what an RTD spokesman said is a “hot” Colorado economy.

This was not a case of the Union holding RTD hostage; rather it was needed to hopefully alleviate the shortage of nearly 200 drivers to operate buses and light rail.

According to (Scott) Reed, RTD currently has 139 vacancies for bus drivers (13 percent) and 59 vacancies for light rail drivers, which is nearly a third of their workforce (27 percent).

For a more permanent fix, RTD will launch an “aggressive” marketing campaign to hire more operators next month, Reed said.

Not sure why this wasn't done previously but sounds smart to me.

While Reed said the agency usually advertises on top-rated radio stations, this year will include radio ads on Spanish-speaking stations to help broaden their reach.

“We think that it’s a bit of an untapped market for what could be a very successful career with RTD,” Reed said, adding that they’re interested in hiring more bilingual drivers.

[TakeFive]

I think I see the future

Originally Posted by Cirrus

Arlington TX was famous for years as being the largest city in America without even a local bus network. So it's not exactly surprising they're taking the first opportunity to bail.

Who knows, maybe this time, Arlington will be a Trail Blazer?

Originally Posted by Cirrus

For the adults at the table, we're still talking about ride-hailing as something that replaces very low-ridership/frequency buses, but not main lines. Ride-hailing generates more trips per person than normal owner-occupied driving does, meaning it generates more congestion, so it really cannot replace main line transit.

Certainly D-Met Transport could catch fire any day and blow up like a hot air balloon... but just to be on the safe side let's assume that doesn't happen.

RTD has just significantly increased their operating expense with pay raises and increased legacy costs and more will be needed over time.

Looking ahead I can foresee RTD being forced to redefine itself and repurpose its services. Including guidance from Denveright/Denver Moves: Transit as well as trends around the country RTD needs to come up with the money needed for the capital costs of creating a more competitive product and meeting increased operating expenses around designated High Value routes ie BRT/enhanced service routes. To do this RTD will need to put away the scalpel and take a hatchet to its current budget. I can foresee the need to cut back or even eliminate much of the off-peak service in favor of ride-sharing which is easily much more efficient.

[Cirrus]

Oh there's no doubt the big transit agencies will have to evolve.

But it's not like the changes are only bad. For now, ride-hailing is only working because it's massively subsidized by venture capital. That won't last forever. The hope among ride-hailing companies is that it lasts long enough for autonomous cars to make drivers obsolete and thus massively reduce their costs. It's a race to get the robots on the street before the venture capital dries up.

Sounds great. Except the same trick works for transit. The biggest operating cost for transit is the driver. Cut out the driver and you can run way more frequent service for way less money, making your bus line competitive again.

So yeah, there's no doubt evolution is coming. But don't throw in the towel yet.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by Cirrus

Oh there's no doubt the big transit agencies will have to evolve.

But it's not like the changes are only bad. For now, ride-hailing is only working because it's massively subsidized by venture capital. That won't last forever.

'Ride-hailing' is a fascinating system built on technology. I've been doing some reading into the concept. I also recall reading several years ago about how Amazon wouldn't be able to generate enough revenue to justify its model with the extreme investments they were making. Uber/Lyft is not the same though so we'll see.

I linked to an article about ride-hailing in Portland which mentioned there were a record 10 million rides last year. Checking APTA for bus ridership numbers yielded a little over 61 million or roughly a six to one ratio. Pretty impressive ride-hailing numbers for a transit-strong city.

Ultimately Uber/Lyft fares will drift higher and whether the Starbucks latte crowd continues to ride is a fair question. I'm also interested in van-style ride-sharing as a better value if less convenient. Given the tech it seems vans would have to be a more efficient and cost effective solution for filling in lower ridership gaps whether area or time of day.

[mhays]

Portland has pleasant transit but ridership is moderate at best as shown by commute shares.

[TakeFive]

I finally found RTD's monthly ridership reports
and while they don't show weekday ridership numbers I was able to deduce...

Of the SE Corridor's E, F and H lines, Aurora's popular H line carries 40% of the ridership. If you add in the new R Line then Aurora carries 47% of the total ridership on those 4 lines.

The W Line is not all that far behind the H Line which has about 15% better ridership. The A Line has the best single line ridership, unsurprisingly.

[TakeFive]

Schools back in session
and I have the new end of the year, station weekday ridership numbers. There are currently a total of 59 stations.

Tier One
1) Union Station with ridership over 30,000

Tier Two - with ridership over 10,000
2) Colfax at Auraria - 12,750
3) I-25 & Broadway - 12,430
4) Denver Airport - 12,028
5) 16th Street Stations - 11,556

Tier Three - with ridership over 6,000
6) 18th Street Stations - 8,397
7) Auraria West - 7,343
8) Lincoln - 6,604
9) Peoria - 6,591
10) Nine Mile - 6,282

Tier Four - with riderhip over 5,000
11) Littleton/Mineral - 5,520
12) Alameda - 5,428
13) Englewood - 5,402

With respect to Aurora, the Florida Station moved up 3 spots to 26th while Iliff jumped from 42th to 34th. Originally I thought Nine Mile was losing riders to Iliff (and they may be) but they (also) regained the ridership lost over the summer presumably due to Auraria. With Florida having no parking I'm wondering if some riders from 'Aurora metro center' aren't transferring to the H line at Florida instead of taking the A Line into downtown? The north end of Aurora still sucks.

[TakeFive]

Photo image courtesy Vail Daily

Town of Vail hosts electric bus for five-day demonstration, evaluation
March 15, 2018 - Daily staff report - newsroom@vaildaily.com

VAIL — The town of Vail will host a five-day demonstration of an electric bus from Tuesday, March 20, through Saturday, March 24. The demonstration is part of a project to upgrade buses serving on the in-town route to battery-electric buses in 2020. The 40-foot, ADA-accessible, battery-electric bus manufactured by BYD will be in regular service on the in-town route between Lionshead and Vail Village during this time and rider feedback will be encouraged.

Is that it?
No, there's so much more.

The visit will be the first in a series of electric bus demonstrations throughout the year showcasing transit bus manufacturers including BYD, Gillig, New Flyer and Proterra.

Photo image courtesy Proterra/Clint Davis/Summit Daily

Breckenridge to start Proterra Electric Bus demo this week
March 18, 2018 - Summit Daily Staff Report - News@summitdaily.com

Breckenridge has the goal of leasing two electric buses for next winter and will soon be starting a month-long demo of an electric bus from Proterra, an industry leader in the design and manufacture of zero-emission electric buses.

Is that it?
I'll have you know that Breck is a Trailblazer!

According to the town, Breckenridge will be the first Colorado mountain town to put an electric bus in use on one of its routes for an extended period of time.

[PLANSIT]

^ Those all-electric BYD buses are what's running on the Mall.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by PLANSIT

^ Those all-electric BYD buses are what's running on the Mall.

Have they been able to catch-up on deliveries and are the buses nice and holding up along the mall?

Rolling in Money


Source

Legislative discussion of road-funding tax and bonding heats up
Mar 20, 2018 by By Ed Sealover – Reporter, Denver Business Journal

One day after a quarterly revenue forecast showed that Colorado legislators could have an extra $1.3 billion to spend next year, discussions are in high gear about increasing transportation funding in the state.

Hickenlooper followed that forecast by lawmakers for $500 million in new one-time spending for roads in transit for the fiscal year beginning on July 1 — more than three times the $148 million in new spending he sought in December.

The hill to die on
Democrats are trying to coax Republicans into some compromise that would include a ballot proposal for increased revenue but Republicans are holding hard to their mantra of committing the legislature to 30 years of $300 million per year payments for bonding.

[TakeFive]

Ridership - the mother's milk of transit
Comparing specific corridors of RTD with other peer cities

RTD
SE Corridor opened end of 2006 is 19 miles and has weekday ridership of about 42,000. That's as good as it gets. The A Line has weekday ridership of about 18,000

San Diego Trolley

• Blue Line opened 1981, is 15.4 miles and has wkdy ridership of 52,000
• Orange Line opened 1986, is 18 miles and has wkdy ridership of 32,000
• Green Line opened 2005, is 23.6 miles and has wkdy ridership of 38,000

Portland Max

• Blue Line opened 1986, is 33 miles and has wkdy ridership of 54,000
• Red Line opened 2001, 26.5 miles and has wkdy ridership of 20,000
• Yellow Line opened 2004, 5.8 miles and has wkdy ridership of 13,000
• Green Line opened 2009, and has wkdy ridership of 20,000
• Orange Line opened 2015, 7.3 miles and has wkdy ridership of 12,000

Twin Cities

• Blue Line opened 2004, 12 miles and has wkdy ridership of 32,000
• Green Line opened 2014, 11 miles and has wkdy ridership of 40,000

Valley Metro (Phx)
Light rail opened end of 2008, originally 20 miles now 26 miles and has wkdy ridership of nearly 50,000

It's worth noting that most of the lines listed have been open for 10, 15 to as much as 30 years so I'm not that concerned about RTD's numbers just yet.

[jubguy3]

Do you have ridership info for TRAX? I know that the red line is the busiest TRAX line but I don't know how much - I'm curious how it stacks up to those aforementioned cities. And when it refers to "SE corridor" does it refer to ridership only within the corridor or does it refer to all the lines that use the SE corridor? I would say it's a sort-of fair comparison, but don't 3 lines use the corridor? At that point the lines that cover it make up a significant portion of the network.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by jubguy3

Do you have ridership info for TRAX? I know that the red line is the busiest TRAX line but I don't know how much - I'm curious how it stacks up to those aforementioned cities. And when it refers to "SE corridor" does it refer to ridership only within the corridor or does it refer to all the lines that use the SE corridor? I would say it's a sort-of fair comparison, but don't 3 lines use the corridor? At that point the lines that cover it make up a significant portion of the network.

That includes 4 lines using that corridor. So it's a pretty lousy comparison. It would be better to pull out the E/F Line (this is the one that can be arguably treated as one line), H Line, and R Line separately.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

That includes 4 lines using that corridor. So it's a pretty lousy comparison. It would be better to pull out the E/F Line (this is the one that can be arguably treated as one line), H Line, and R Line separately.

Actually, the 42,000 was from before the R Line opened I believe. Given the percentages that I had previously come up with the E&F lines carry about 25,000 while the H Line has ridership of about 17,000. It's possible that some H Liner's transfer to the E Line if they'd prefer DUS but I doubt it amounts to much.

[PLANSIT]

RTD A-Line is up to 22,500 weekday riders as of October of last year.

https://www.denverpost.com/2017/10/1...l-grand-award/

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by PLANSIT

RTD A-Line is up to 22,500 weekday riders as of October of last year.

https://www.denverpost.com/2017/10/1...l-grand-award/

Thanks; I had trouble finding reliable data. Obviously missed the DP article.


Just when you think X will happen, Y happens
http://www.cpr.org/news/story/colora...for-road-money

But in a rare evening vote Wednesday, two Republicans broke with their party to support an amendment that re-writes SB18-001 and delays the bond ask to 2019. Republicans Don Coram of Montrose and Owen Hill of Colorado Springs were the ones who bucked their party to get the amendment passed.

This follows all that money that is now available for a short-term infusion. The amendment sets up a path for just one ballot measure for voters to consider if they want to raise taxes in support of transportation infrastructure. My personal preference among Denver Chamber et al choices would be Door 4 that would increase sales taxes by five-tenths percent and also commit the legislature to $150 million per year. Given the politics as well as appearances to voters this looks like the best option to me.

What do they get in return? The amendment commits a half a billion dollars in surplus tax revenue next year to new road projects.

"The voters will make the decision whether they want to do this,” Coram said. “It's just my job to give them the opportunity."