36% Liberal
35% Tory
20% ndp
6% green
3% other
seat count
Tories or Liberals will win a minority government, at this point I don't know which one will, but I feel the Tories will eke out a minority with 155 seats to the Liberal 150 seats.
Greens will win 2, NDP around 25, bloc/other 6.
Tories will primarily win former liberal wins from 2015.
Starting in BC the tories will retake kelowna easily, kootenays will also go Tory, in metro vancouver the langleys will go back to the tories, as will delta, south surrey, west vancouver-sea to sky, coquitlam, and all the fraser valley seats won last time.
Basically out of 42 seats in BC I think tje tories will win 20 which is double their 2015 number
so in 2015 they won 99 seats, these BC wins will drag them back up to 109
In Alberta they will retake Calgary skyview and calgary centre, they will also retake edmonton mill woods.
So in Alberta they will gain 3 seats.
In saskatchewan they likely will remain where they are now though in manitoba theyw ill retake winnipeg south, kildonan st paul, and Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley.
so on the prairies the cons will gain 6 seats
On to ontario, I'm not going to bother with a breakdown here because thats way too much effort but I can see Ontario swinging tory enough that many GTA seats return into tory hands and perhaps even some toronto property seats as well, all in all I think it's safe to say around 15-25 seats will be flipped by the tories in Ontario, I'll say 25 because it's a larger number and just to be safe
Onto quebec I think the Tories will win around 5 more seats there, and in atlantic Canada I think they will win around 10 seats
so all in all they started with 99 seats and they won 10 more in BC, 3 more in Alberta, 3 more in Manitoba, 25 in Ontario, 5 more in Quebec, and 10 in atlantic Canada
Tories total 155 seats.
without vote splitting on the left (strong NDP) the Tories can top out around 160 seats but this would be unlikely, all polls and mathematics so far point to a very weak win by Trudeau due to vote spread advantage alone.
If Singh rises in the polls during the election and the NDP polls in 25% of the vote than a Tory majority, a weak one mind you is likely to occur.
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River District Big Government progressive
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- Pierre Elliot Trudeau
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