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  #81  
Old Posted May 17, 2018, 2:06 AM
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THis is another beautiful tower!
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  #82  
Old Posted May 20, 2018, 6:24 PM
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  #83  
Old Posted May 21, 2018, 5:15 AM
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rgarri4, my friend, you do amazing work. Just spectacular! Your models give such an accurate glimpse as to what could be in our future. Thanks again
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  #84  
Old Posted May 21, 2018, 2:35 PM
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Crossing my rebar fingers that this view materializes within 5 years.
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  #85  
Old Posted May 21, 2018, 2:56 PM
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Crossing my rebar fingers that this view materializes within 5 years.
No kidding! Truly an exciting time. It's going to change the whole perspective of that area.
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  #86  
Old Posted Jun 2, 2018, 10:28 AM
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dude thank you so much for these.

elite content.
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  #87  
Old Posted Jun 2, 2018, 3:39 PM
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^ I wouldn't worry too much about the approval process. The real ticking time bomb is the maturity of this very long lasting bull market, and how many of these proposals can secure financing and begin construction before the housing market implodes in the next year or two, and which will have to wait until after.
Or which developers are willing to take a punt on timing the delivery of units with the eventual recovery. Even if we had a brief recession in 2019 (say over 4 quarters), none of these would be ready to close sales before things started heading up again. So unless something happens to change the medium-term thesis, a recession doesn’t really matter as long as they don’t have too many balls in the air. The 2008 crash was different because you actually had major banks struggling with solvency; no one could place a bet on anything.

But I think what he meant is that, if Amazon chose Chicago, the local high-end condo market would probably grow through any national recession anyway, whether it was actual amazon employees or just speculators looking to flip to them. Hell, if Amazon chose Chicago then I might look for a 2-bedroom to buy quickly at the right price.
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  #88  
Old Posted Jun 4, 2018, 10:31 PM
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^ Amazon choosing Chicago is a long shot (technically all the locations are long shots; from a purely mathematical perspective its 5% for each of the 20 locations.... short of the DC area that is) but if they do indeed choose us, you are absolutely right. I don't see why any of these major 1000+ ft projects wouldn't get built, recession or not. It would be a fantastic situation to find ourselves in.

Regarding an upcoming recession, you are correct in that most likely we wont see all bank lending dry up completely as was the case in 08-09, but it might cause some parties to put a few projects on pause, especially if they have several high end projects all going at once in the same market (like Related Midwest, for instance). The fact that these towers are predominantly rentals also works in their favor of being built during a down market, since mortgages wont be an issue and people need a place to live regardless of the economic situation. It all really depends on how well the high end segment of the rental market fares when the economic headwinds go south in the next year or two. People may feel pressured to trade down to more economical living quarters, even if they keep their job; the fear of losing it could be enough to depress demand.
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  #89  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2018, 2:47 PM
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Mortgage lending is already pretty anemic IIRC. It's definitely too cautious to fuel a true condo boom around the city. Banks are already extending mortgages to the most credit-worthy folks only, so I'm not sure they have much room to pull back in the event of a recession.

In other words, the folks buying high-end downtown condos right now would probably be doing that anyway, recession or not.
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  #90  
Old Posted Jun 5, 2018, 3:44 PM
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Maybe not a condo boom, but there is demand not being tapped. There really has not been much of anything built with moderately well to do condo pricing. There is a demand. Anything that has gone on sale in my building in the West Loop has not even lasted a week on market and gets higher than what they were asking most of the time. It is insane.
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