LeBreton Flats 2.0 (RendezVous LeBreton) | Cancelled

[Harley613]

Originally Posted by phil235

I understand the sentiment, and hear it all the time, but it does strike me as a little odd. The current team has (arguably) the best defenceman in the world, and just went to within an overtime goal of the Stanley Cup final. If that doesn't get people out to the rink, I'm not sure what will.

The location definitely sucks, but that is the only real entry barrier they have. Ticket prices are much lower than in other Canadian markets (even factoring in parking), tickets are generally available, and $3 gets you there on the bus (and quite efficiently at that). Ottawa has had stretches of very solid attendance, but there is no doubt that this is a fickle fanbase.

Colour me fickle! Karlsson is the only household name on our team and as a disengaged citizen these days he's the only one I hear about. The buzz for one player alone does not get me excited to reengage. I did follow the playoffs last year, but that was very fluky.

[phil235]

Originally Posted by Harley613

Colour me fickle! Karlsson is the only household name on our team and as a disengaged citizen these days he's the only one I hear about. The buzz for one player alone does not get me excited to reengage. I did follow the playoffs last year, but that was very fluky.

In fairness, you did say that you weren't a big hockey fan. But for hockey fans (and this city has lots of those), the chance to watch Karlsson in his prime is a pretty big deal, as that kind of opportunity doesn't come along every few years.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by phil235

But for hockey fans (and this city has lots of those), the chance to watch Karlsson in his prime is a pretty big deal, as that kind of opportunity doesn't come along every few years.

If that is the only reason to go to a game, you have 41 home games to choose from in a season to do that. Most people go to games to be entertained by watching a good game. The home team doesn't necessarily have to win, but it needs to at least be a good game.

As for their last playoff run, only 2 of the home games would not have sold out with the arena's original capacity of 18,500. A seating capacity of 19,153 is just too big for Ottawa (it put it at 7th largest arena in the NHL, behind Montreal, Chicago, Philadelphia, Detroit, Calgary and Florida and notably ahead of Toronto and Vancouver). OTOH, I think dropping it to 17,373 was an over reaction (though maybe not for a bad season).

[lrt's friend]

I have been a big Sens fan since they first became a good team in the late 90s. I have found the Sens have become unwatchable. Countless times in the last couple of years, I have turned off games. That and the problems in getting to the CTC and I haven't gone to a game in the last few years. Yes, transit is available but you can count on it being a 1+ hour trek from my part of the city (near the airport). Transport is painful. It always has been and as a fan, it has become tiresome. Making it an evening of it with friends means leaving my job early to reach a restaurant enough in advance of game time. For a 7:30 p.m. start, I need to leave around 4:00 p.m. for a hurried dinner before the game. I can't guarantee getting to a Kanata restauant until 5:30 p.m. using that schedule because of traffic.

I am a big fan of EK and I know he is a great talent but one player does not make a great team. Last year, my impression was that the Sens was a 5 game losing streak away from crashing and burning. This has been born out this year.

I just get this feeling that we are not building to anything and with rumours that we are going to get rid of EK, where is this team going? Are they going to become the Oilers of the 2020s, with rebuild over and over again. In a way, this has been the case already for the Sens since 2010. This is why the team is in and out of the playoffs. Not quite as bad as the Oilers, but there is no indication that we are building towards a better team as was apparent in the late 90s.

My impression is that we are repeating history. Dump EK and it is like what the original Sens did when they sold their franchise player, King Clancy to the Leafs way back in 1930. That franchise did not survive for long after that move. A TV commentator has already said that disposing of EK could have disastrous impact on the future of the Sens. With the fan dislike of Melnyck, how will the Sens survive until a new better era arrives? This is how this could be worse than the Oiler repeated rebuilds and mishandling of top draft choices. Fans like myself see this as developing a culture of losing for the long-term.

I have seen disastrous ownership with the Rough Riders and Renegades so Ottawa fans are sensitive to this. Unless Melnyck makes some shrewd decisions quickly and demonstrates that he can make a go of the Lebreton project, I can see the Ottawa fan base bailing. They did eactly that with the last year of the Renegades with the Gliebermans treating the fans as juvenile bafoons. It is got to the tipping point with the Sens. If things go south over the summer and next season, the only choices may be new ownership or moving the franchise out of Ottawa (to Quebec City).

[acottawa]

I can't think of anything more boring than paying Karlsson 90 million and watching him decline for the next 9 years on a lousy team. They have no legitimate top line centre on the team or in the pipeline, their goalies are over the hill, they just got a top goaltending prospect but he is probably a few years away. The team desperately needs to rebuild and Karlsson is an obstacle to doing that.

[phil235]

Originally Posted by roger1818

If that is the only reason to go to a game, you have 41 home games to choose from in a season to do that. Most people go to games to be entertained by watching a good game. The home team doesn't necessarily have to win, but it needs to at least be a good game.

As for their last playoff run, only 2 of the home games would not have sold out with the arena's original capacity of 18,500. A seating capacity of 19,153 is just too big for Ottawa (it put it at 7th largest arena in the NHL, behind Montreal, Chicago, Philadelphia, Detroit, Calgary and Florida and notably ahead of Toronto and Vancouver). OTOH, I think dropping it to 17,373 was an over reaction (though maybe not for a bad season).

I would argue that Karlsson is worth a lot more than one game per season, but I do get that many people go to see a good game rather than a player. That said, the Sens were quite good last season, and played very well at the beginning of this season, and that didn't translate into solid attendance.

The idea that the Sens have no one else to watch is also a bit overdone. They have Stone who is clearly an elite forward, running at a more than a point a game in the midst of a bad season, and Duchene, who is definitely a high-end offenseive player who is exciting to watch. I would add Chabot to that list, as he is projecting to be another elite D. They also have Logan Brown and Colin White coming at centre. This is a team that the experts were predicting to easily take a playoff spot just six months ago. A few bad months and it has turned to all doom and gloom.

As for seating capacity, the CTC hasn't had 19,153 seats since the Club Bell renovations. Despite reports to the contrary, capacity was 18,500 during the playoffs.

[phil235]

Originally Posted by acottawa

I can't think of anything more boring than paying Karlsson 90 million and watching him decline for the next 9 years on a lousy team. They have no legitimate top line centre on the team or in the pipeline, their goalies are over the hill, they just got a top goaltending prospect but he is probably a few years away. The team desperately needs to rebuild and Karlsson is an obstacle to doing that.

I disagree, as per my previous post. They've had one bad year (largely due to terrible goaltending and poor defence), but their core, including Karlsson, are in their primes. People fetishize prospects, but there is no guarantee that a rebuild gets you even one player that is as good as Karlsson and Stone are now.

The makings of a retooling are clear. Chabot and White are already here, and Logan Brown is a high end centre prospect who is likely going to be here next year. There are solid wing prospects in Batherson and Formenton who can challenge for spots next year. Given what they have, I think you move secondary pieces like Smith and rebuild around a core of Karlsson, Stone, Duchene and Chabot.

Every bad year does not require a full teardown. That's how you end up like the Oilers.

[phil235]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

Yes, transit is available but you can count on it being a 1+ hour trek from my part of the city (near the airport). Transport is painful. It always has been and as a fan, it has become tiresome. Making it an evening of it with friends means leaving my job early to reach a restaurant enough in advance of game time. For a 7:30 p.m. start, I need to leave around 4:00 p.m. for a hurried dinner before the game. I can't guarantee getting to a Kanata restauant until 5:30 p.m. using that schedule because of traffic.

....

It is got to the tipping point with the Sens. If things go south over the summer and next season, the only choices may be new ownership or moving the franchise out of Ottawa (to Quebec City).

Transport may be painful from some areas, but it is very efficient from anywhere in the central city or along the transitway, which covers a big swath of the population. From the Glebe I can be at the CTC in 30 minutes, and home in 20 if I take the bus. From Blair, it was more like 40. 30-40 minutes doesn't seem an unreasonable burden to see an NHL game. People in Ottawa are bit spoiled in terms of access - growing up I would regularly go 2 hours or more to Buffalo for a game.

The Sens will never move to Quebec City. NHL franchise value is largely related to market size. A move to Quebec would immediately lop 40% off the value of the Sens. Not a move that would appeal to an owner.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by phil235

I disagree, as per my previous post. They've had one bad year (largely due to terrible goaltending and poor defence), but their core, including Karlsson, are in their primes. People fetishize prospects, but there is no guarantee that a rebuild gets you players that are as good as Karlsson and Stone are now.

The makings of a retooling are clear. Chabot and White are already here, and Logan Brown is a high end centre prospect who is likely going to be here next year. There are solid wing prospects in Batherson and Formenton who can challenge for spots next year. Given what they have, I think you move secondary pieces like Smith and rebuild around a core of Karlsson, Stone, Duchene and Chabot.

Every bad year does not require a full teardown. That's how you end up like the Oilers.

I really hope we can rebuild around EK. He is a unique talent.

I also agree that there are talents on the team beyond EK, but the team is not coming together, which is disturbing after last year's playoff run.

Maybe, they will bounce back next year. EK was injured and he admitted that the surgery was worse than for his achilles tear.

I think we should be careful about getting rid of EK. We ended up with not much better than a bag of pucks with the Heatley and Spezza trades. It is hard to get equal value back.

Also, defensemen and goalies tend to have a longer shelf life than forwards. Great defensemen can play well into their mid or even late 30s. It all depends on how EK is doing with respect to his last injury. The team will have a better idea. I don't think we will see maximum recovery until next season.

EK's questionable play this season may relate to the rest of the team underperforming. EK has shown in past bad seasons to want to do too much so a better team may see his game look a whole lot better.

If EK departs, we will see a full tear down, otherwise, we can hope for a retool and a quick return to the playoffs.

Time will tell.

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by phil235

Transport may be painful from some areas, but it is very efficient from anywhere in the central city or along the transitway, which covers a big swath of the population. From the Glebe I can be at the CTC in 30 minutes, and home in 20 if I take the bus. From Blair, it was more like 40. 30-40 minutes doesn't seem an unreasonable burden to see an NHL game. People in Ottawa are bit spoiled in terms of access - growing up I would regularly go 2 hours or more to Buffalo for a game.

The Sens will never move to Quebec City. NHL franchise value is largely related to market size. A move to Quebec would immediately lop 40% off the value of the Sens. Not a move that would appeal to an owner.

A move to Quebec City eliminates Ottawa's unique problem of dealing with divided loyalties. But I agree, that a Quebec City would be unlikely and things would have to turn really, really bad here before it would happen.

I am not a big enough fan to want to travel 2 hours regularly. I think people's patience with driving to a game declines with age. That is why moving downtown is appealing to me. I can take the train there. It will take less than 30 minutes including driving to Greenboro instead of 1 hr++ going to CTC.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

A move to Quebec City eliminates Ottawa's unique problem of dealing with divided loyalties. But I agree, that a Quebec City would be unlikely and things would have to turn really, really bad here before it would happen.

It's in the NHL's best interest to keep all franchises in their current locations and that includes Ottawa. The NHL has ensured Ottawa has stayed in the past and will continue to do so in the future, especially since there are arena plans afoot. Relocations affect relative stability of franchises, and less stability means potential for lower franchise valuations.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by phil235

As for seating capacity, the CTC hasn't had 19,153 seats since the Club Bell renovations. Despite reports to the contrary, capacity was 18,500 during the playoffs.

Playoff attendance at CTC:

Eastern Conference First Round vs. (A3) Boston Bruins
Date Attendance
12-Apr 18,702
15-Apr 18,629
21-Apr 19,209

Eastern Conference Second Round vs. (WC1) New York Rangers
Date Attendance
27-Apr 16,744
29-Apr 18,679
6-May 19,082

Eastern Conference Final vs. (M2) Pittsburgh Penguins
Date Attendance
17-May 18,615
19-May 19,145
23-May 18,111

As you can see, all except 2 games were above 18,500, so I don't see how you can say "capacity was 18,500 during the playoffs."

[TransitZilla]

Originally Posted by roger1818

Playoff attendance at CTC:

As you can see, all except 2 games were above 18,500, so I don't see how you can say "capacity was 18,500 during the playoffs."

Seating capacity was 18,500 during the playoffs. Real attendance can be higher with people in standing room, in boxes, etc.

So your chart shows at attendance was >100% capacity for all games except for Game 1 vs the Rangers, and Game 6 vs Pittsburgh.

Game 6 vs Pittsburgh was right after the May long weekend, after the team had been drubbed 7-0 in Game 5. I think the fans rallied and the game was just short of a sell-out. It was also one of the loudest Sens games I have been to.

Game 1 vs the Rangers is really the only one that's puzzling, and of course its numbers were so bad that it got the whole story going.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by bradnixon

Game 1 vs the Rangers is really the only one that's puzzling, and of course its numbers were so bad that it got the whole story going.

But the way everyone is talking, they make it sound like none of the games were sellouts.

[ars]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

I am a big fan of EK and I know he is a great talent but one player does not make a great team. Last year, my impression was that the Sens was a 5 game losing streak away from crashing and burning. This has been born out this year.

I agree, just from the way the Sens were playing, last year seemed very flukey to me, like they were teetering between being a playoff team and a non-playoff team. I think the straw that finally broke the camel's back was losing Methot, management severely misread this team and underestimated the effect of losing Methot.

Originally Posted by acottawa

I can't think of anything more boring than paying Karlsson 90 million and watching him decline for the next 9 years on a lousy team. They have no legitimate top line centre on the team or in the pipeline, their goalies are over the hill, they just got a top goaltending prospect but he is probably a few years away. The team desperately needs to rebuild and Karlsson is an obstacle to doing that.

Although I agree that the Sens can't do a full rebuild while Karlsson is on the team(nor that Karlsson would be on board with that), if you look at the teams that have done a full rebuild in the last dozen years, none of them have had a player that was the same caliber as Karlsson.

To me, getting rid of Karlsson is pretty much the same thing as if the Oilers got rid of McDavid after this season to do a full rebuild. You just don't do it, it's a bad idea on every level.

When the Blues traded Pronger, they were a garbage team for 6 seasons before becoming a decent team again(and I would say that they still haven't recovered from that move). That is what I see for the Sens(or worse) if they trade Karlsson.

Teams have retooled, surrounding their stars with good talent, and have come out with good to great results(usually it involved drafting in the top-3 and getting a can't miss prospect), there's no reason why the Sens can't do it as well.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by phil235

I would argue that Karlsson is worth a lot more than one game per season, but I do get that many people go to see a good game rather than a player. That said, the Sens were quite good last season, and played very well at the beginning of this season, and that didn't translate into solid attendance.

The idea that the Sens have no one else to watch is also a bit overdone. They have Stone who is clearly an elite forward, running at a more than a point a game in the midst of a bad season, and Duchene, who is definitely a high-end offenseive player who is exciting to watch. I would add Chabot to that list, as he is projecting to be another elite D. They also have Logan Brown and Colin White coming at centre. This is a team that the experts were predicting to easily take a playoff spot just six months ago. A few bad months and it has turned to all doom and gloom.

Belleville is dead last in the entire AHL. That is not normally a sign of a deep prospect pool. Could you see any of the guys you mentioned on the top line of a good team?

[phil235]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

I am not a big enough fan to want to travel 2 hours regularly. I think people's patience with driving to a game declines with age. That is why moving downtown is appealing to me. I can take the train there. It will take less than 30 minutes including driving to Greenboro instead of 1 hr++ going to CTC.

No question that downtown will be a huge improvement. Most of the population (Gatineau included) will be within 20-30 minutes.

[phil235]

Originally Posted by roger1818

Playoff attendance at CTC:



As you can see, all except 2 games were above 18,500, so I don't see how you can say "capacity was 18,500 during the playoffs."

Boxes and standing room.

[phil235]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Belleville is dead last in the entire AHL. That is not normally a sign of a deep prospect pool. Could you see any of the guys you mentioned on the top line of a good team?

Fair point. Their best prospects are at the junior level. I can absolutely see Brown and Formenton as top line players. Not sure about Batherson, but his development has been impressive.

Stone and Duchene are clearly first line players, and Chabot and Karlsson top 2 defencemen.

[Stevenson]

Originally Posted by acottawa

I can't think of anything more boring than paying Karlsson 90 million and watching him decline for the next 9 years on a lousy team. They have no legitimate top line centre on the team or in the pipeline, their goalies are over the hill, they just got a top goaltending prospect but he is probably a few years away. The team desperately needs to rebuild and Karlsson is an obstacle to doing that.

No they don’t, they have Matt Duchene who has been excellent in a terrible year for the team. The team has a really solid core of stone karlsson duchene Hoffman Chabot , Logan brown,Colin white etc