Winnipeg Free Press - PRINT EDITION
Major flood at border forecast
A lot of snow, slow melt blamed
By: Bartley Kives
Posted: 1:00 AM
A major flood on the Red River at the Canada-U.S. border is all but certain this spring, based on the latest number-crunching by U.S. flood forecasters.
The U.S. National Weather Service's advanced hydrologic prediction service said Thursday there is a 95 per cent chance of major flooding at Pembina, N.D., at some point during the next two months. The prediction is based on conditions observed Monday.
"We're looking at a 2011-type flood," said Mike Lukes, a National Weather Service hydrologist based in Grand Forks. Although overshadowed by the Assiniboine River flood of 2011, the Red River flood during the same spring resulted in ring-dike closures at 15 Manitoba communities in the Red River Valley, the closure of Highway 75 south of Morris and the second-highest flood crest in Winnipeg since the Flood of the Century in 1997.
A flood of similar magnitude is probable this year despite dry weather in 2012. Heavy rains last fall saturated the top level of the soil, which froze solid early in the winter, Lukes said. The heavy snowpack on top of this crust and the delayed thaw have combined to increase the flood threat. The snowmelt, usually underway by now, has yet to commence.
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