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View Poll Results: In 2021, the CMA population for Winnipeg will be:
less than 825,000 5 6.58%
825,000-849,999 16 21.05%
850,000-874,999 31 40.79%
over 875,000 24 31.58%
Voters: 76. You may not vote on this poll

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  #21  
Old Posted Aug 17, 2016, 3:51 PM
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City just released the report for their population forecast. Haven't read yet, but might be of interest here.

http://www.winnipeg.ca/finance/files...c-Forecast.pdf

My guess for 5 years is 862K.
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  #22  
Old Posted Aug 17, 2016, 5:19 PM
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856k was the estimate listed by CoW for 2021. Growth rate off CMA listed is just over 10k per year for the next 20 years basically.
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  #23  
Old Posted Aug 17, 2016, 5:20 PM
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From the same report:
Winnipeg CMA projected to hit 1,000,000 sometime in 2034-35
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  #24  
Old Posted Aug 17, 2016, 5:35 PM
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I guess the biggest determining factor, with an influx of apprx: 10K/year and which way this will go, is to stem the out-migration that seems to affect our province yearly. If more people find the City and Province more desirable and decide to stay, the numbers could fluctuate to a higher population base overall. I truly hope this is the case, we'll see what the next 5 years can bring in this regard..
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  #25  
Old Posted Aug 17, 2016, 6:25 PM
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At what point will Winnipeg be at its optimal size? I think Winnipeg is reaching the point where we've turned things around from the 90s when it looked like the city was doomed... the future is no longer in doubt. Perhaps the focus should move from restoring population growth to improving the quality of life for citizens.

Seeing a thriving Selkirk Avenue, for example... not gentrified but simply becoming a safe, functional commercial strip once again... that would impress me more, and make more of a difference to Winnipeggers than adding 60,000 people by the next census.
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  #26  
Old Posted Aug 17, 2016, 6:49 PM
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I'll agree with places like Selkirk Ave. I remember going there regularly with grandparents for whatever shopping or services they were needing. Now I never go there as it's not really that inviting. And I tend to frequent any area of the City if there's something for me.
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  #27  
Old Posted Aug 17, 2016, 7:25 PM
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If we want more people to live within the existing city boundaries, we have to get serious about transforming the north end. It makes no sense to keep expanding outwards when there is plenty of sites around the city prime for redevelopment. Redeveloping Weston yards is a good example of what we need to do, despite the cost. This is a massive area that should be a dynamic neighborhood.
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  #28  
Old Posted Aug 17, 2016, 7:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Urban recluse View Post
If we want more people to live within the existing city boundaries, we have to get serious about transforming the north end. It makes no sense to keep expanding outwards when there is plenty of sites around the city prime for redevelopment. Redeveloping Weston yards is a good example of what we need to do, despite the cost. This is a massive area that should be a dynamic neighborhood.
Why not focus on improving the existing neighbourhoods instead of building new ones in the North End?

If you straighten out the existing North End and turn Selkirk Avenue into what it was back in the 80s, it'll be a hell of a lot easier to sell people on brownfield development with things like the CP yards.
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  #29  
Old Posted Aug 17, 2016, 7:29 PM
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Yes, that is what I meant by "transforming the north end".
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  #30  
Old Posted Aug 17, 2016, 8:37 PM
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I predict Winnipeg will be the be the worst-served transit city of 850,000 by 2021.
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  #31  
Old Posted Aug 17, 2016, 8:41 PM
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Selkirk Avenue is almost entirely social service storefronts. Not much room for businesses.

I lived on Selkirk in the late 70s, it wasn't bad then.
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  #32  
Old Posted Aug 17, 2016, 9:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by esquire View Post
At what point will Winnipeg be at its optimal size? I think Winnipeg is reaching the point where we've turned things around from the 90s when it looked like the city was doomed... the future is no longer in doubt. Perhaps the focus should move from restoring population growth to improving the quality of life for citizens.

Seeing a thriving Selkirk Avenue, for example... not gentrified but simply becoming a safe, functional commercial strip once again... that would impress me more, and make more of a difference to Winnipeggers than adding 60,000 people by the next census.
I'd have to agree, quality and safety and choice in lifestyle are all goals that this city should strive for 1st. The decline in the area, from when I remember it, has spiraled to a new low. The question will always come. How do we accomplish this? 10K new residents in the area and a vibrant Selkirk Ave are a lofty and admirable goal, but 10K of new residence in poverty added to the area only hasten it's decline..
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  #33  
Old Posted Aug 17, 2016, 10:00 PM
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If you want to prop up the inner city area you need to attack it on multiple fronts:

1. Get North Kildonan/Transcona to be pushing inwards on Elmwood/East K to pull that area up.

2. Along those same lines get Amber Trails and Riverbend to push inwards on West K/Garden City/Maples/Brooklands/etc.

3. Get the downtown condos to put pressure on the Central Park and West End.

If we work on building up the outer areas people are okay being in and getting them to put inward pressure on the more inner and less desirable neighbourhoods. Once you get the area around Selkirk and Arlington to the point it is an up and coming neighbourhood we are at the point to start the discussion on the Weston Yards development.

The other big challenge being faced is the strongest Conservative support lies just outside the Winnipeg boundaries yet the city needs strong provincial support to limit growth in the neighbouring RMs if there is to be any real hope of slowing the outward sprawl.
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  #34  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2016, 3:37 AM
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I have heard from a fairly reliable source..we were more like 814,000 + for the 2016 census ..not officially unconfirmed. I think we might see a small increase from 1.3% per year to just a bit more so. some years, depending on several factors, like 1.35 % or 1.4 %?
if that happens, I am guessing 872,000 for 2021...we will hit a million by 2030
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  #35  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2016, 6:24 PM
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At the beinning of the forecast, we are hovering around a 10000 to 11000 person population increase annually for the cma. What makes the statisticians think that the yearly growth will decrease by 2030 to 2040 to a year by year increase off only 9000 to 10000. I thought a percent increase would equate to a larger total increase as years progress. 1% + of 800,000 is smaller than 1% + of a million (when we do actually reach that population). Every person we add usually adds that much more to the economy, adding a few more jobs. Even if economic growth is slow but steady, I would think that total yearly increases in the cma would start around 10k to 11k and end up at maybe 11k to 11.5k annually by 2040.

Last edited by dennis; Aug 19, 2016 at 7:08 PM.
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  #36  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2016, 7:27 PM
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Not to rain on the optimism, but we all enjoy an article by Tom at the Sun..

Quote:
But most years the province sees a net loss of between 3,000 to 7,000 people. Unfortunately, the outflow of people to other provinces has worsened in recent years, despite claims by many politicians that people are "flocking" to Manitoba. They aren't. They're leaving for greener pastures elsewhere.....

...Manitoba lost 19,988 to other provinces last year and gained 13,017, for a net loss of 6,971.

Manitoba's Interprovincial migration, 2006-2015

2006 -7,277
2007 -3,449
2008 -3,931
2009 -2,514
2010 -2,590
2011 -4,171
2012 -3,928
2013 -6,146
2014 -7,336
2015 -6,971
Total: -48,313

-- Manitoba Bureau of Statistics
http://www.winnipegsun.com/2016/08/1...es-in-10-years

You can read more if you choose, but I didn't have the heart to post more. Sad reality. Will it ever change. Where would we be without the immigration program to prop up the numbers..
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  #37  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2016, 7:35 PM
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^ Admittedly I don't have numbers to back it up, but I'm sure it has probably been this way since the last boom era of the early 20th century. Seems that for a century now the tendency has been for people to arrive in Manitoba from abroad, and for their children move elsewhere.
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  #38  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2016, 8:13 PM
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I would have expected the interprovincial migration to have been high during the period from 2007 to 2012. I would have expected it to drop at the earliest in 2015 and more likely decrease during the current economic downturn in Alberta and Saskatchewan, increased get again as oil markets improve. What happened during 2007 to 2012?
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  #39  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2016, 8:19 PM
TimeFadesAway TimeFadesAway is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by esquire View Post
^ Admittedly I don't have numbers to back it up, but I'm sure it has probably been this way since the last boom era of the early 20th century. Seems that for a century now the tendency has been for people to arrive in Manitoba from abroad, and for their children move elsewhere.
If you look at the data on the Stats Can website, which dates back to 1962, we've had net negative interprovincial migration every year except 82,83 and 84. As a percentage of population, the trendline (just eyeballing the data) appears to be going down (that is, this number is generally a smaller and smaller percentage of our overall population).

In other words, some people leave, but it's no big deal. We're a smaller province and can't provide the same opportunities or variety of opportunities that larger provinces can offer. These days, people tend to leave small places for larger places because of the opportunities larger places provide. This is not a Manitoba phenomenon, it is universal in the Western world. It is simply a function of living in a smaller place.
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  #40  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2016, 9:12 PM
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The -2,000 mark is acceptable, but the higher numbers are scary. Obviously there is lots of work to do in regards to the economy.
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