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View Poll Results: In 2021, the CMA population for Winnipeg will be:
less than 825,000 5 6.58%
825,000-849,999 16 21.05%
850,000-874,999 31 40.79%
over 875,000 24 31.58%
Voters: 76. You may not vote on this poll

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  #61  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2017, 6:48 PM
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Originally Posted by bomberjet View Post

Tor, Mtl and Van, 50% of Canada.
Um, Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver CMAs count for ~12.5 million, which is about 35% of Canada. Not small by any means, but not 1/2 of the country.
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  #62  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2017, 7:03 PM
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Interesting how there city's own CMA from July 2015 is a fair bit more than the 2016 census results (~793k city 2015 vs ~778k census 2016)

Wonder what the undercount is
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  #63  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2017, 7:04 PM
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Oops, 35% you're right. Must've misread that one. It's 35.5% according to the CBC. Still staggering amount of people living in 3 locations. Shows how empty the rest of the country really is.
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  #64  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2017, 7:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bomberjet View Post
Oops, 35% you're right. Must've misread that one. It's 35.5% according to the CBC. Still staggering amount of people living in 3 locations. Shows how empty the rest of the country really is.
It means we have a huge back yard.
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  #65  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2017, 9:00 PM
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It's encouraging to see Winnipeg's CMA growth rate above the national average at 6.6% from 2011-2016. Not surprising to see the Western prairie cites with the highest growth rates. I was a bit surprised to see Montreal, Halifax and Hamilton with growth rates below the national average. With its proximity to the GTA, I wonder why Hamilton isn't growing faster?

It still can't shake the feeling that it's taking forever for Winnipeg to hit the magical 800K mark. Seems like we've been in the mid 700K range for ages.
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  #66  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2017, 9:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Authentic_City View Post
It's encouraging to see Winnipeg's CMA growth rate above the national average at 6.6% from 2011-2016. Not surprising to see the Western prairie cites with the highest growth rates. I was a bit surprised to see Montreal, Halifax and Hamilton with growth rates below the national average. With its proximity to the GTA, I wonder why Hamilton isn't growing faster?

It still can't shake the feeling that it's taking forever for Winnipeg to hit the magical 800K mark. Seems like we've been in the mid 700K range for ages.
If you go by the City's own estimates and forecasts, Winnipeg is already beyond 800k CMA (should be ~815k this July according to the city)

http://winnipeg.ca/cao/pdfs/population.pdf

As far as Hamilton goes, although it is part of that GTHA region it is still far enough away from the GTA, most of the growth that is happening is more central to the GTA (i.o.w. not as far out as Hamilton). If you're interested in living near Toronto and you need to commute to Toronto, there are many locations that are more central and thus more attractive like Mississauga.
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  #67  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2017, 9:37 PM
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^So the city seems to think that Stats Can is systematically under-counting Winnipeg's population by a pretty significant number? On what basis are they making this claim, I wonder?

I remember reading an article in the Globe and Mail in the early 2000s that predicted Hamilton CMA and London, ON CMA would overtake Winnipeg CMA in fairly short order. Seems like that clearly isn't happening now. Amazing how things changed in the last several years.
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  #68  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2017, 9:45 PM
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I noticed that too. In the range of 15k to 20k per census. Seems like a lot of people to miss in the count.
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  #69  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2017, 9:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Authentic_City View Post
^So the city seems to think that Stats Can is systematically under-counting Winnipeg's population by a pretty significant number? On what basis are they making this claim, I wonder?

I remember reading an article in the Globe and Mail in the early 2000s that predicted Hamilton CMA and London, ON CMA would overtake Winnipeg CMA in fairly short order. Seems like that clearly isn't happening now. Amazing how things changed in the last several years.
I think so, I recall when the 2011 census came out Winnipeg's CMA was also low compared to what StatCans own Population Estimates were and the city's estimates at the time. I think the city's own numbers aligned more so with the statscan estimates, rather than the census

Further to those puzzling figures, there was also a lot of discussion about how actually the population estimates were more accurate than the official census and how Manitoba had a strong undercount for some reason (they are called estimates because the numbers are rounded up or down for "clean" figures, so 754,398 people would be 754,400) but the discussion centred on why the estimates are actually more accurate numbers

If you compared the population estimates for 2012 to the 2011 census, there was a gap in Winnipeg's numbers by a (surprise surprise) similar gap that seems to exist from the city of Winnipeg's own data to the latest census.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tabl...emo05a-eng.htm

As you can see there, Winnipeg CMA was ~760k in 2012 yet in the 2011 census results released that same year, Winnipeg was ~730k...undercounts happen, yes it is part of the census process with people not responding to the census agents (maybe you're at work during that time for example), not filling out their census forms, or whatever the reason may be....but 30k is a lot of people to miss.


Growth itself is so fluid. There was a time Winnipeg was claimed to have 2-3 million people by the time 2000 came along the calendar. Things clearly can change. If you look at Winnipeg's growth in the last 5 years, it paints a positive growth trend for a city that grows "slow and steady"...6.6% over that timespan is an impressive number and more akin to "growing briskly and steady" than it is "slow"....slow would be something more in line with Halifax's growth rates imo.

The 90s was a rough time for Winnipeg, probably the roughest in it's entire history so it is understandable where those proclamations came from, but today they are quite absurd.

Hopefully Winnipeg's positive growth trends continue, and I think they will at least for the near future. (Until 2021)
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  #70  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2017, 4:52 PM
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Difference between census and population estimates:
https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-r...estima-eng.cfm

Should be noted that the 2016 census had the highest response rate (98.4%) since confederation.
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  #71  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2017, 5:02 PM
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Centreventure's chairman sounds pretty jacked about the population increase downtown according to this WFP article:

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/loc...413218973.html

It's great to see the progress that has occurred over the last 10 years. I know it's kind of trifling compared to what has happened in the Canadian metros larger than Winnipeg over that timespan, but it at least feels as though the footings are coming into place to support even more growth in the future. The more downtown feels like a functional, multifaceted neighbourhood (and not just a 9 to 5 office park), the more attractive it will be to homebuyers. It's certainly a more appealing place to be now compared to 15 years ago.
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  #72  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2017, 5:27 PM
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Too bad the map in that article is borderline useless since growth of 0-20% is colored the same.

And will people actually pay more for suburban condos? Suburban rentals have a hard time getting tenants, and what little luxury condo market exists in this city seems to predominate in downtown and mature neighborhoods.
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  #73  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2017, 5:32 PM
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the comercial market sure pays more for subutban rentals
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  #74  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2017, 5:36 PM
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big drop point douglas... hmm well kids are moving out of their parents homes. rooming houses have changed hands that one makes sens area going through demigraphic shift
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  #75  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2017, 5:40 PM
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the tax rebate is the only profit?? wtf?
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  #76  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2017, 6:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jmt18325 View Post
Using Winnipeg's current growth rate, I'm going to go with 835K.

Edit: I made a calculation error. That should be 847K
I was going to say somewhere between 845-850k (but I hope much closer to 900k!). you split the difference
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  #77  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2017, 6:46 PM
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what did you guys think about the post in the Canada Stats thread that Kitchener-Waterloo would reach 1M before Winnipeg?

I read that and was just like
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  #78  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2017, 7:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wigs View Post
what did you guys think about the post in the Canada Stats thread that Kitchener-Waterloo would reach 1M before Winnipeg?

I read that and was just like
Typical southern Ontario centre of the universe type stuff.
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  #79  
Old Posted Feb 10, 2017, 7:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wigs View Post
what did you guys think about the post in the Canada Stats thread that Kitchener-Waterloo would reach 1M before Winnipeg?

I read that and was just like
Not gonna happen.

Not by a long shot.
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  #80  
Old Posted Mar 8, 2017, 6:15 PM
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Stats Canada is reporting today that we basically cracked over 800,000 people for the metro area, at an estimated 811,874 people come July 1st. Now up to 7th, behind the Ottawa-Gatineau area.

CBC Link
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