HomeDiagramsDatabaseMapsForumSkyscraper Posters
     

Go Back   SkyscraperPage Forum > Regional Sections > Canada > Manitoba & Saskatchewan

View Poll Results: In 2021, the CMA population for Winnipeg will be:
less than 825,000 5 6.58%
825,000-849,999 16 21.05%
850,000-874,999 31 40.79%
over 875,000 24 31.58%
Voters: 76. You may not vote on this poll

Reply

 
Thread Tools Display Modes
     
     
  #81  
Old Posted Mar 8, 2017, 6:42 PM
Biff's Avatar
Biff Biff is offline
What could go wrong?
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Winnipeg
Posts: 5,485
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wigs View Post
what did you guys think about the post in the Canada Stats thread that Kitchener-Waterloo would reach 1M before Winnipeg?

I read that and was just like

Seems really far fetched;

Kitchener-Waterloo - (2013)502k - (2016)517k = +15k
Winnipeg - (2013)770k - (2016)811k = +41k

Not only is Winnipeg 364k bigger already, in the last 4 years we have out gained them by 26k.

Not sure how they can reach 1m before Winnipeg if they aren't even out-gaining us.
__________________
"But a city can be smothered by too much reverence for its past. The skyline must keep acquiring new peaks, because the day we consider it complete and untouchable is the day the city begins to die." - Justin Davidson - May 2010 Issue of New York
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #82  
Old Posted Mar 8, 2017, 7:07 PM
Urban recluse Urban recluse is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 4,006
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Jabroni View Post
Stats Canada is reporting today that we basically cracked over 800,000 people for the metro area, at an estimated 811,874 people come July 1st. Now up to 7th, behind the Ottawa-Gatineau area.

CBC Link
Great news!
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #83  
Old Posted Mar 24, 2017, 8:36 AM
Jets4Life's Avatar
Jets4Life Jets4Life is offline
SJW Slayer
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: True North
Posts: 1,572
Quote:
Originally Posted by Authentic_City View Post
It's encouraging to see Winnipeg's CMA growth rate above the national average at 6.6% from 2011-2016. Not surprising to see the Western prairie cites with the highest growth rates. I was a bit surprised to see Montreal, Halifax and Hamilton with growth rates below the national average. With its proximity to the GTA, I wonder why Hamilton isn't growing faster?

It still can't shake the feeling that it's taking forever for Winnipeg to hit the magical 800K mark. Seems like we've been in the mid 700K range for ages.
Hamilton (nicknamed Steeltown) is full of declining and obsolete industries. If it were not for the Burlington area, which many of its residents commute to the GTA, was not included in the Hamilton CMA, the area may have experienced negative growth.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #84  
Old Posted Mar 24, 2017, 8:38 AM
Jets4Life's Avatar
Jets4Life Jets4Life is offline
SJW Slayer
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: True North
Posts: 1,572
Quote:
Originally Posted by Biff View Post
Seems really far fetched;

Kitchener-Waterloo - (2013)502k - (2016)517k = +15k
Winnipeg - (2013)770k - (2016)811k = +41k

Not only is Winnipeg 364k bigger already, in the last 4 years we have out gained them by 26k.

Not sure how they can reach 1m before Winnipeg if they aren't even out-gaining us.

I read that thread a couple of months ago. My assumption is people in Southern Ontario are delusional, or cannot point to Winnipeg on a map.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #85  
Old Posted Mar 29, 2017, 3:26 PM
balletomane balletomane is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 480
Just for fun I compiled a list of my estimates for Winnipeg and other communities over 5,000. Please note my estimates are for the 2021 census results, not "official estimates" for that year.

Manitoba 1,350,239 (low) 1,356,929 (med.) 1,363,647 (high)
Winnipeg CMA 826,332 (low) 830,423 (med.) 834,530 (high)

CoW 744,895 (low) 748,586 (med.) 752,292 (high)
Brandon 51,351 (low) 51,861 (med.) 52,376 (high)
Steinbach 17,996 (low) 18,350 (med.) 18,709 (high)
Winkler 14,455 (low) 14,596 (med.) 14,738 (high)
Thompson 14,023 (low) 14,233 (med.) 14,447 (high)
PlaP 13,504 (low) 13,639 (med.) 13,776 (high)
Selkirk 10,695 (low) 10,802 (med.) 10,909 (high)
Morden 9,570 (low) 9,854 (med.) 10,146 (high)
Dauphin 8,627 (low) 8,670 (med.) 8,713 (high)
Niverville 5,608 (low) 5,744 (med.) 5,883 (high)
Oakbank 5,209 (low) 5,601 (med.) 6,017 (high)
Stonewall 5,180 (low) 5,309 (med.) 5,440 (high)
Neepawa 4,965 (low) 5,214 (med.) 5,474 (high)
The Pas 5,054 (low) 5,157 (med.) 5,262 (high)
Flin Flon 4,807 (low) 4,881 (med.) 4,955 (high) *included because population is currently above 5,000
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #86  
Old Posted Mar 29, 2017, 9:54 PM
roccerfeller's Avatar
roccerfeller roccerfeller is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Winnipeg
Posts: 2,580
^ Population estimates are more accurate in terms of actual population

Winnipeg CMA should be somewhere around 860k by the time July 1 estimates are released for 2021 (in early 2022), if we go with the current trends. It might be slightly higher or lower depending on what the growth rate ends up being. Its going at a healthy, good clip right now.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #87  
Old Posted Mar 29, 2017, 10:38 PM
balletomane balletomane is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 480
Yes, I know they are more accurate. I wish they were more often quoted in other sources such as Wikipedia where many people will get basic information about a city or town. Winnipeg's CMA estimate of 811,000 is significantly higher than the census result of 778,000, yet its the census result that will be used in most sources for the next five years. As for smaller communities its likely that the census result won't be much lower than its actual population.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #88  
Old Posted Mar 30, 2017, 4:30 AM
The Jabroni's Avatar
The Jabroni The Jabroni is offline
Go kicky fast, okay!
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Winnipeg, Kingdom of Skeletor
Posts: 2,369
Quote:
Originally Posted by balletomane View Post
Just for fun I compiled a list of my estimates for Winnipeg and other communities over 5,000. Please note my estimates are for the 2021 census results, not "official estimates" for that year.

Manitoba 1,350,239 (low) 1,356,929 (med.) 1,363,647 (high)
Winnipeg CMA 826,332 (low) 830,423 (med.) 834,530 (high)

CoW 744,895 (low) 748,586 (med.) 752,292 (high)
Brandon 51,351 (low) 51,861 (med.) 52,376 (high)
Steinbach 17,996 (low) 18,350 (med.) 18,709 (high)
Winkler 14,455 (low) 14,596 (med.) 14,738 (high)
Thompson 14,023 (low) 14,233 (med.) 14,447 (high)
PlaP 13,504 (low) 13,639 (med.) 13,776 (high)
Selkirk 10,695 (low) 10,802 (med.) 10,909 (high)
Morden 9,570 (low) 9,854 (med.) 10,146 (high)
Dauphin 8,627 (low) 8,670 (med.) 8,713 (high)
Niverville 5,608 (low) 5,744 (med.) 5,883 (high)
Oakbank 5,209 (low) 5,601 (med.) 6,017 (high)
Stonewall 5,180 (low) 5,309 (med.) 5,440 (high)
Neepawa 4,965 (low) 5,214 (med.) 5,474 (high)
The Pas 5,054 (low) 5,157 (med.) 5,262 (high)
Flin Flon 4,807 (low) 4,881 (med.) 4,955 (high) *included because population is currently above 5,000
I know it's all projected estimates (and you doing it for fun anyway), but frankly, I can't see Thompson cracking 14,000 again, based on the economic outlook of that city. The nickel smelting plant and one of the mines will be closed by 2021, and there will be at least 4,000 jobs gone, possibly more.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #89  
Old Posted Mar 30, 2017, 12:11 PM
balletomane balletomane is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 480
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Jabroni View Post
I know it's all projected estimates (and you doing it for fun anyway), but frankly, I can't see Thompson cracking 14,000 again, based on the economic outlook of that city. The nickel smelting plant and one of the mines will be closed by 2021, and there will be at least 4,000 jobs gone, possibly more.
I think Stantec conducted some sort of population report for Thompson a few years back, and I think their higher estimates were around the 17,000 mark by 2036. I believe these were based on upgrades to its Wastewater plant, which doesn't sound like something that could sustain growth. It seems useless trying to estimate the population projections in any northern community, sometimes they shrink dramatically between censuses and other times they post a healthy growth.

Do you think climate change will have positive (or negative) growth effects on some of these northern communities in the next few decades?
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #90  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2017, 11:06 PM
Spocket's Avatar
Spocket Spocket is offline
Keep yo pimp hand strong
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Changchun , China
Posts: 2,563
Quote:
Originally Posted by balletomane View Post
I think Stantec conducted some sort of population report for Thompson a few years back, and I think their higher estimates were around the 17,000 mark by 2036. I believe these were based on upgrades to its Wastewater plant, which doesn't sound like something that could sustain growth. It seems useless trying to estimate the population projections in any northern community, sometimes they shrink dramatically between censuses and other times they post a healthy growth.

Do you think climate change will have positive (or negative) growth effects on some of these northern communities in the next few decades?
Very unlikely. Not unless we decide to open up our national borders and just hand over free land to everybody who can buy a plane ticket to Canada.
Otherwise, there's a reason that people are where they are. Outside of mining and logging, there's very little reason to live up there. Can't farm and there aren't enough people to make a go of pretty much any other industry anyway.
__________________
Giving you a reason to drink and drive since 1975.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #91  
Old Posted Mar 31, 2017, 11:47 PM
balletomane balletomane is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 480
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spocket View Post
Very unlikely. Not unless we decide to open up our national borders and just hand over free land to everybody who can buy a plane ticket to Canada.
Otherwise, there's a reason that people are where they are. Outside of mining and logging, there's very little reason to live up there. Can't farm and there aren't enough people to make a go of pretty much any other industry anyway.
I guess I was thinking of a more apocalyptic scenario where the entire prairie region succumbs to desertification. Realistically, the only place that could be threatened by this in the near future are the immediate areas surrounding the Alberta/Saskatchewan badlands.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #92  
Old Posted Apr 3, 2017, 5:34 PM
Spocket's Avatar
Spocket Spocket is offline
Keep yo pimp hand strong
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Changchun , China
Posts: 2,563
Quote:
Originally Posted by balletomane View Post
I guess I was thinking of a more apocalyptic scenario where the entire prairie region succumbs to desertification. Realistically, the only place that could be threatened by this in the near future are the immediate areas surrounding the Alberta/Saskatchewan badlands.
Well, people wouldn't leave to go north in that case. They'd head to the cities. There's no way to live up there unless you want to live truly as one with nature. In that case, there's only so many people that that sort of lifestyle can support.
__________________
Giving you a reason to drink and drive since 1975.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #93  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2017, 4:14 AM
Jets4Life's Avatar
Jets4Life Jets4Life is offline
SJW Slayer
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: True North
Posts: 1,572
Quote:
Originally Posted by TimeFadesAway View Post
If you look at the data on the Stats Can website, which dates back to 1962, we've had net negative interprovincial migration every year except 82,83 and 84. As a percentage of population, the trendline (just eyeballing the data) appears to be going down (that is, this number is generally a smaller and smaller percentage of our overall population).

In other words, some people leave, but it's no big deal. We're a smaller province and can't provide the same opportunities or variety of opportunities that larger provinces can offer. These days, people tend to leave small places for larger places because of the opportunities larger places provide. This is not a Manitoba phenomenon, it is universal in the Western world. It is simply a function of living in a smaller place.
For the last 40 years our interprovincial migration patterns have largely been influenced by the economic conditions of BC and Alberta, and especially Alberta in the 21st century. Coincidentally, the years we have positive interprovincial migration (82-84), and relatively little negative migration all happen to coincide with economic downturns in Alberta.

In 2008, the Alberta economy went in the dumper. The interprovincial negaive migration out of Manitoba dropped to 2,000 in 2009 and 2010. At the end of 2014, the economic downturn in Alberta reared it's ugly head again. I would be willing to bet that the 2016 numbers will be around 2,000 again. Alberta really felt the full effects of the recession last year.

Having said that, I can see Winnipeg gaining an average of 12,500 people in the next 5 years.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #94  
Old Posted May 6, 2017, 11:57 AM
balletomane balletomane is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 480
The city just released their new revised 5-year population forecast for Winnipeg this month. CMA population of 883,100 and city population of 797,900 in 2021.

http://winnipeg.ca/cao/pdfs/population.pdf
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #95  
Old Posted May 6, 2017, 1:49 PM
roccerfeller's Avatar
roccerfeller roccerfeller is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Winnipeg
Posts: 2,580
Quote:
Originally Posted by balletomane View Post
The city just released their new revised 5-year population forecast for Winnipeg this month. CMA population of 883,100 and city population of 797,900 in 2021.

http://winnipeg.ca/cao/pdfs/population.pdf
Nice - Thanks for posting this

I must say it's pretty cool just looking back circa 2011 when the NHL returned to Winnipeg.

The city population now (2017) is comparable to the CMA population then.

Very solid growth curve for the Peg, heres hoping it continues
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #96  
Old Posted May 6, 2017, 1:56 PM
esquire's Avatar
esquire esquire is offline
Think about Winnipeg.
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Posts: 18,559
^ It feels like we're creeping up on a million faster than I would have expected.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #97  
Old Posted May 6, 2017, 2:51 PM
balletomane balletomane is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 480
I just wish the city would try to sustain the stronger we've experienced the last few years. It seems like they're anticipating a two year growth spurt of 16,000 annual growth and then back to the norm of 13,000. Why not realize, "we are growing faster than expected, let's try to sustain this growth" instead of "this growth is just a temporary."
Yes, we should be happy that the city is growing twice as fast as a decade ago, but why can't the city still try to accelerate it? It seems that there is a bit of a lack of vision, plus stronger growth could really force the city to modernize it's infrastructure in places its lacking. Like making the Perimeter a real freeway.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #98  
Old Posted May 6, 2017, 9:23 PM
The Jabroni's Avatar
The Jabroni The Jabroni is offline
Go kicky fast, okay!
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Winnipeg, Kingdom of Skeletor
Posts: 2,369
Quote:
Originally Posted by balletomane View Post
The city just released their new revised 5-year population forecast for Winnipeg this month. CMA population of 883,100 and city population of 797,900 in 2021.

http://winnipeg.ca/cao/pdfs/population.pdf
Now that is really cool, and it shouldn't be too far off come next census.

As for why the city can't seem to accelerate and embrace the growth that we have now, I feel that it's because they're not used to seeing this rate of growth in at least a generation. I wasn't around when Winnipeg was booming like crazy. All I knew growing up was that Winnipeg wasn't doing too well until the turn of the new millenium, and everything was starting to go on the up and up since.

I guess the term "we have a long way to go" may be true in most cases for our city, but I have a feeling that we are halfway there, and maybe, just maybe, we may have already came a long way.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #99  
Old Posted May 7, 2017, 3:10 PM
balletomane balletomane is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 480
I wonder, should the city and CMA continue to slightly exceed growth expectations over the next ~5 years, will the city revise its projection of a population of 1 million by 2035?

Assuming the city does reach 883,100 by 2021, and growth doesn't slow down substantially after that, the CMA could reach by 1 million by 2030. In fact, annual CMA growth would have to slow to ~9,000 annually after 2021 in order for the city to reach 1 million in 2035 as projected last year.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #100  
Old Posted May 7, 2017, 3:35 PM
wave46 wave46 is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 751
Quote:
Originally Posted by balletomane View Post
I just wish the city would try to sustain the stronger we've experienced the last few years. It seems like they're anticipating a two year growth spurt of 16,000 annual growth and then back to the norm of 13,000. Why not realize, "we are growing faster than expected, let's try to sustain this growth" instead of "this growth is just a temporary."
Yes, we should be happy that the city is growing twice as fast as a decade ago, but why can't the city still try to accelerate it? It seems that there is a bit of a lack of vision, plus stronger growth could really force the city to modernize it's infrastructure in places its lacking. Like making the Perimeter a real freeway.
I guess I'm confused about how the city could really accelerate growth. The best government can do in my opinion is to set good conditions for growth and hope for the best. It's like farming in that sense - the crops will grow at the rate they grow - all the farmer can do is make sure they have the best conditions possible within his control.

Having lived in declining cities that have tried the 'vision' thing with debatable results, I'm kind of skeptical about government 'vision' on growth. The role of the city IMO is to provide appropriate infrastructure at a reasonable costs to keep the city fertile for growth. We don't need 'pie in the sky' wild eyed idealists with utopian visions - I'll settle for pragmatists.

As for why the city might be hedging its bets - the predictions of population from the early 1970s era were off by a fair margin - the 1980s and 1990s hit Winnipeg like a sack of bricks. It is better to have a conservative projection of population growth and be pleasantly surprised by having expectations exceeded as opposed to optimistic growth projections and miss them.
Reply With Quote
     
     
This discussion thread continues

Use the page links to the lower-right to go to the next page for additional posts
 
 
Reply

Go Back   SkyscraperPage Forum > Regional Sections > Canada > Manitoba & Saskatchewan
Forum Jump


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Forum Jump


All times are GMT. The time now is 10:28 AM.

     

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.