Quebec, the French Language, and Quebecois Identity

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by big T

As for the French at home stat, assuming that is all due to immigration (I don’t really see how established Francophones would suddenly turn Anglo, save for specific exceptions), I think the 2nd generation argument remains valid. Loi 101 is a powerful tool. We’re in an immigration glut right now, so I continue to think this is heavily impacting the numbers, but we all know it’s unsustainable. I’m thinking this normalizes again when we snap out of this record-breaking insanity.

Well, these are the figures for the non-immigrant population of the province of Québec:

Language most spoken at home:
2011 >> 2021
- French: 88.7% >> 88.0%
- English: 9.6% >> 11.8%

The total number of non-immigrants living in Québec whose most spoken language at home is English rose from 645,435 in 2011 to 812,170 in 2021. That's a +2.32% growth of that population per year (the sort of population growth rates found in Africa). The non-immigrant population whose most spoken language at home is French rose by just +0.22% per year (which is the sort of rate found in the slow growers of Europe such as Germany with its catastrophic fertility rate that immigration fails to compensate entirely).

Now if we break up the figures even more (and again keep in mind these refer only to the non-immigrants), it's not so much the people for whom English is the ONLY language most spoken at home that grew the most (although this group still grew by +0.99% per year, which is akin to the fastest growing parts of Europe, such as Switzerland). The fastest growing group was those for whom both English and French are the most spoken languages at home (this group grew by a crazy +15.8% per year between 2011 and 2021). This suggests that many native Francophones of Québec start using English as much as French at home. As we saw in Louisiana, that was the first stage of the process before ditching French altogether and keeping only English at home.

[kwoldtimer]

Why is the language spoken at home relevant? Or anybody's business for that matter?

[Acajack]

I don't disagree the numbers are bad, but keep in mind quite a few anglophones in Québec also speak a mix of English and French at home.

I would say that very few families where both of the parents are of the same language would speak both English and French at home.

The French + English number is mostly a reflection of marriages between francophones and anglophones.

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Well, these are the figures for the non-immigrant population of the province of Québec:

Language most spoken at home:
2011 >> 2021
- French: 88.7% >> 88.0%
- English: 9.6% >> 11.8%

The total number of non-immigrants living in Québec whose most spoken language at home is English rose from 645,435 in 2011 to 812,170 in 2021. That's a +2.32% growth of that population per year (the sort of population growth rates found in Africa). The non-immigrant population whose most spoken language at home is French rose by just +0.22% per year (which is the sort of rate found in the slow growers of Europe such as Germany with its catastrophic fertility rate that immigration fails to compensate entirely).

Now if we break up the figures even more (and again keep in mind these refer only to the non-immigrants), it's not so much the people for whom English is the ONLY language most spoken at home that grew the most (although this group still grew by +0.99% per year, which is akin to the fastest growing parts of Europe, such as Switzerland). The fastest growing group was those for whom both English and French are the most spoken languages at home (this group grew by a crazy +15.8% per year between 2011 and 2021). This suggests that many native Francophones of Québec start using English as much as French at home. As we saw in Louisiana, that was the first stage of the process before ditching French altogether and keeping only English at home.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Why is the language spoken at home relevant? Or anybody's business for that matter?

It's no one's business you're right, but it's still relevant to the discussion as it gives a good idea of the future linguistic composition of society.

(Since anglos aren't like immigrants who will assimilate eventually. Once they are anglos they will stay anglos, even in Québec. Especially in Montréal.)

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Acajack

The French + English number is mostly a reflection of marriages between francophones and anglophones.

Between 2011 and 2021, "French only" at home for non-immigrants in Québec (NIQ) grew by only +0.04% per year (i.e. quasi-stagnation), "English only" at home for NIQ grew by +1.00% per year (entire population of NIQ grew by only +0.30% per year, so "English only" homes grew at more than 3 times the rate of the NIQ), whereas "both English and French" at home for NIQ grew by +15.8% per year. So it looks like the Francophones are the group most disproportionately affected by the rise of bilingual families. If both groups were equally affected (i.e. if bilingual homes were the results of one Anglophone parent and one Francophone parent), you would find the Anglophone group more proportionately affected than the Francophone group (because the Anglophone group is smaller in absolute numbers, so a rise of, say, 100,000 bilinguals coming from strictly 50% Anglophone parents and 50% Francophone parents would proportionally affect the Anglophone group, 600,000 in 2011, much more than the Francophone group, 5.9 million in 2011). Yet the exact opposite is observed (+1.00% yearly growth for the Anglophone group vs +0.04% yearly growth for the Francophone group).

So this makes it impossible for the rise in the number of bilingual homes to be explained only or even in majority by "one Anglophone parent + one Francophone parent". It must come in a large measure either from Francophone homes switching to bilingual homes, or Francophones marrying/partnering Anglophone immigrants and using English + French at home with the children.

The figures also show that there's been a large inflow of Anglophone Canadians from ROC to Québec between 2011 and 2021, otherwise the Anglophone NIQ could not have grown by +1.00% per year (children of Anglophone immigrants alone could not have achieved that, especially considering that this is "English only" at home, and not "English + allophone language").

[New Brisavoine]

Statcan has some interesting new stats about interprovincial migrations (published only last November I'm discovering; as far as I know, there were no interprovincial migration statistics before, which I had always found odd).

Between 2016 and 2021, the record number of 31,880 people with English as their mother tongue migrated from ROC to Québec (these are both non-immigrants and immigrants). This is the highest number of native English speakers from ROC moving to Québec since the start of stats in 1976.

Note that this figure is in fact underestimating the inflows between 2016 and 2021, because it shows ONLY those native English speakers who came to Québec between 2016 and 2021 and were still living in Québec at the time of the census in 2021. So for example if an Anglophone from Ontario moved to Montréal in 2018, and then returned to Ontario in 2020, this person would not appear in the 31,880 listed here.

29,235 native English speakers from Québec moved to ROC between 2016 and 2021. As a result, this is the first time the number of native Anglophones from ROC moving to Québec is higher than the number moving from Québec to ROC since the start of stats in 1976.

In total, if we take the longer 2011-2021 period, the net migration between Québec and ROC was the following:
- native English speakers: -7,530 (i.e. 7,530 more native Anglophones left Québec to ROC than came from ROC to Québec)
- native French speakers: -9,140 (i.e. 9,140 more native Francophones left Québec to ROC than came from ROC to Québec)
- native Allophones: -23,525 (i.e. 23,525 more native Allophones left Québec to ROC than came from ROC to Québec)

Québec thus had a negative net interprovincial migration between 2011 and 2021 for all language groups, and for the total population the net interprovincial migration was -40,195, which means Québec is not attractive within Canada... But what's new is Québec has now become attractive (with a positive net interprovincial migration) for the native Anglophones since 2016 (for the native Francophones the net interprovincial migration was almost 0 between 2016 and 2021, which is better than the negative net migration registered between 2011 and 2016).

[New Brisavoine]

And here for New Brunswick.

Net migration between New Brunswick and ROC between 2011 and 2021:
- native English speakers: +7,715 (i.e. 7,715 more native Anglophones moved to New Brunswick from the rest of Canada than those who left New Brunswick to the rest of Canada)
- native French speakers: +1,575
- native Allophones: -3,345

In total, for all language groups, New Brunswick had a net interprovincial migration of +5,945 persons between 2011 and 2021. Who said the Maritimes were not attractive! It's fascinating how a province like New Brunswick manages to have a positive net interprovincial migration, and Québec doesn't, despite some much larger metro areas and businesses...

I also did not imagine that there were more Francophones coming to New Brunswick from the rest of Canada than leaving New Brunswick. Where do they come from?

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Between 2011 and 2021, "French only" at home for non-immigrants in Québec (NIQ) grew by only +0.04% per year (i.e. quasi-stagnation), "English only" at home for NIQ grew by +1.00% per year (entire population of NIQ grew by only +0.30% per year, so "English only" homes grew at more than 3 times the rate of the NIQ), whereas "both English and French" at home for NIQ grew by +15.8% per year. So it looks like the Francophones are the group most disproportionately affected by the rise of bilingual families. If both groups were equally affected (i.e. if bilingual homes were the results of one Anglophone parent and one Francophone parent), you would find the Anglophone group more proportionately affected than the Francophone group (because the Anglophone group is smaller in absolute numbers, so a rise of, say, 100,000 bilinguals coming from strictly 50% Anglophone parents and 50% Francophone parents would proportionally affect the Anglophone group, 600,000 in 2011, much more than the Francophone group, 5.9 million in 2011). Yet the exact opposite is observed (+1.00% yearly growth for the Anglophone group vs +0.04% yearly growth for the Francophone group).

So this makes it impossible for the rise in the number of bilingual homes to be explained only or even in majority by "one Anglophone parent + one Francophone parent". It must come in a large measure either from Francophone homes switching to bilingual homes, or Francophones marrying/partnering Anglophone immigrants and using English + French at home with the children.

The figures also show that there's been a large inflow of Anglophone Canadians from ROC to Québec between 2011 and 2021, otherwise the Anglophone NIQ could not have grown by +1.00% per year (children of Anglophone immigrants alone could not have achieved that, especially considering that this is "English only" at home, and not "English + allophone language").

Interesting analysis though it's more dynamic as in and out flows of mixed marriages vary a lot. I know francophone families who moved back to Quebec and use English and French at home so their kids don't lose their native English skills.

ROC Anglophones are net plus for Quebec recently but is 1% a year is a huge influx? I suppose eventually in a 100 years at this rate Francophones will only be 70% of the population and maybe a minority in Montreal. So what?

[Acajack]

The net francophones going into New Brunswick mostly come from Québec. Though many of them may be people originally from NB who were living in Québec and moved back to NB during or after the pandemic.

NB's francophone community has lost a lot of population to Québec in the past.

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

And here for New Brunswick.

Net migration between New Brunswick and ROC between 2011 and 2021:
- native English speakers: +7,715 (i.e. 7,715 more native Anglophones moved to New Brunswick from the rest of Canada than those who left New Brunswick to the rest of Canada)
- native French speakers: +1,575
- native Allophones: -3,345

In total, for all language groups, New Brunswick had a net interprovincial migration of +5,945 persons between 2011 and 2021. Who said the Maritimes were not attractive! It's fascinating how a province like New Brunswick manages to have a positive net interprovincial migration, and Québec doesn't, despite some much larger metro areas and businesses...

I also did not imagine that there were more Francophones coming to New Brunswick from the rest of Canada than leaving New Brunswick. Where do they come from?

[niwell]

While prices have gone up, the cost of a single family home in New Brunswick is still quite low. Now that Halifax is becoming increasingly unaffordable it seems like a natural choice for a certain type of person. Anecdotally when we were at my in-laws family cottage just outside Shediac there were an increasing number of seasonal cottages owned by Ontarians that sold property in the GTA and are upgrading them into full-time residences. Or summering there and spending the winter somewhere south.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by niwell

While prices have gone up, the cost of a single family home in New Brunswick is still quite low. Now that Halifax is becoming increasingly unaffordable it seems like a natural choice for a certain type of person. Anecdotally when we were at my in-laws family cottage just outside Shediac there were an increasing number of seasonal cottages owned by Ontarians that sold property in the GTA and are upgrading them into full-time residences. Or summering there and spending the winter somewhere south.

I've known of a few people who've cashed out on their homes in the Montreal or Gatineau areas and moved back to northern NB. Some are retired or semi-retired. Some have 100% work at home arrangements.

A few of my relatives have flirted with the idea (going as far as having job interviews in NB) but so far they've all stayed put. And likely will at this point.

[kool maudit]

If I was Elon Musk or something like that, I think I might colonize Saint John and build a great North American city out of it.

[P'tit Renard]

A lot of buzz on the Plateau lately about the backlash Aya Nakamura is facing regarding the Paris Olympics. She's quite popular on the island and was the headliner for Osheaga. No question her reception in Québec and her treatment by Québec politicians would be a lot better..

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/11/french-star-aya-nakamuras-rumoured-olympics-show-prompts-far-right-outrage

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

A lot of buzz on the Plateau lately about the backlash Aya Nakamura is facing regarding the Paris Olympics. She's quite popular on the island and was the headliner for Osheaga. No question her reception in Québec and her treatment by Québec politicians would be a lot better..

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/11/french-star-aya-nakamuras-rumoured-olympics-show-prompts-far-right-outrage

My kids actually listen to her music, though we haven't discussed this specific issue.

[MolsonExport]

those far right racist assholes always get outraged at the wrong things. they are so blinded by hate.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

A lot of buzz on the Plateau lately about the backlash Aya Nakamura is facing regarding the Paris Olympics. She's quite popular on the island and was the headliner for Osheaga. No question her reception in Québec and her treatment by Québec politicians would be a lot better..

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/11/french-star-aya-nakamuras-rumoured-olympics-show-prompts-far-right-outrage

I was about to write about that. Lots of people are appalled with the choice of Aya Nakamura, not because of her skin color, as the woke Left is trying to portray it, but simply because she sings awfully (and her songs are low quality). We've gone from Céline Dion opening the Atlanta Olympic Games to Aya Nakamura opening the Paris Olympic Games. I guess it's a reflection of how our societies are declining culturally...

Also, many people are annoyed with the fact it's yet again a PR coup (or "coup de com") by Macron. Would Justin Trudeau decide alone in his office who is going to be the lead singer of the Toronto Olympic Games? Give me a break! This reeks of Versailles and 'it's good to be the king'.

Anyway, I predict these Olympic games are going to be a disaster. Paris is just not ready, the city has never been so derelict, dirty, mismanaged, potholes everywhere, collapsing traffic lights, tents of illegal immigrants everywhere. What a view offered to the rest of the world! In a way Aya Nakamura is the right fit considering how shabby this city has become.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

those far right racist assholes always get outraged at the wrong things. they are so blinded by hate.

The Guardian has an agenda, don't be fooled. Most people couldn't care less about her skin color. For the bicentenary of the French Revolution in 1989, Jessye Norman was selected to sing the Marseillaise, and nobody criticized that choice, because she was a great singer, and her performance is still remembered today. It's the vulgarity and low taste of Aya Nakamura that irks many people.

• Video Link

[Acajack]

But can Aya sing Piaf?

[P'tit Renard]

This recent interview by La Zarra about her stunt at Eurovision is also interesting..


La Zarra « traumatisée » par l’Eurovision
https://www.lapresse.ca/arts/musique...eurovision.php

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Acajack

But can Aya sing Piaf?

If she can, anyone can.

This is what I meant by "vulgarity" by the way. Note that the guy who made a screenshot of her tweet is himself a center-left expert in geopolitics, the sort of guy who would most certainly vote for Justin Trudeau in Canada, so not really your "far right racist".