DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by rds70

Another rendering of the proposed Amacon project at 18th and Welton:

Wow. Just imagining another 5-6 blocks of this type of development downtown.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

Wow. Just imagining another 5-6 blocks of this type of development downtown.

^Amacon could single handedly revive downtown residential and retail. Maybe the City should just give them $50 million to do another 2,000 units. I'd think $50 million would cover any hesitancy/errors on Amacon's part and the City would get the money back within 3 years of completion based on their 2022 per person budget revenue of $5,271 (assuming 1.6 people/unit). If only Cities thought like that....

[TakeFive]

I wouldn't have thought it was possible

Originally Posted by Brainpathology

Also using death rates in red or purple states after the politicization of medical science (which the, in general, imbecilic tendencies of certain grey tinted voting blocks will enhance the effects of) is maybe going to be transient. I remember reading an article I can't locate now that speculated that "vaccine hesitancy" (which should be written as "stupidity") had likely caused additional COVID deaths in FL equivalent to Desantis' first election win margin - which I believe was around 30k votes or so.

Though that being said.. I agree with you that it should definitely be celebrated from, sure, an "economic" stand point.

But Gov Desantis is even worse than Trump. The guy is obsessively petty and a micro manager. At least Trump is 'visionary' even if his visions are crazy. Desantis by comparison is boring, not inspiring.

I saw where your buddy, Peter Thiel, is going to boycott donating for the 2024 elections; he's unhappy with the party's focus on cultural issues. I guess that's one thing we have in common.

My Republican conservative late night talker (in Phoenix) from Tampa Bay knows a lot of Florida's politicos. He mentions that many of them are scratching their heads with Desantis's fight with Mickey Mouse. My guess is that Mickey Mouse slays the Desantis dragon.

Just being totally candid but if somehow Nikki Haley were to win the Republican presidential nomination that would be an easy vote for me. As much as I love Biden I'm also among the many that doesn't want to see Four More Years.

So it will be interesting to see how all the 'old folks' vote.

[TakeFive]

I'm happy to say that I've never heard of Zeihan

Originally Posted by mhays

I understand the worker/dependent balance point (and listen to too many videos by Zeihan and others), but economically it really depends what you're counting.

From a development perspective, they're a big and important factor in household counts.

Same with kids. Their numbers affect the volume of school construction most notably.

Really it boils down to both being net sinks economically, but still increasing real estate needs. In balance, we probably spend a larger percentage of total economic activity on buildings, even though doing so is a strain on funding borne by the workforce.

I'm content to rely on the Wisdom that comes with 'maturity.'

But give wong props for being familiar with the data that I wasn't even aware of. It turns out that the Census Bureau tracks the migration of Retirees. Thanks to a CNN piece I also learned that SmartAsset has been using that data to analyze retirement populations for many years.

Where Retirees Are Moving – 2023 Study
APR 17, 2023 by Patrick Villanova, CEPF

Think Sprawl - It's not a Zero Sum Game

Retirement communities are easily a Net Positive. Their best attribute is that they provide stability. They do attract lots of medical facilities so far as those economics go but aside from basic infrastructure they're mostly not a burden, they're low crime areas with slow traffic etc. They do provide jobs for many landscape maintenance workers.

For Retirement areas like Sun City in AZ there's no back yards; instead they have common grassy areas with lots of lemon and orange trees (yes, they're edible). The trees are a nod to their history of once being lemon and orange tree orchards.

Think Affordability

I wasn't aware until I read SmartAsset that last year Mesa, AZ was the top city for new retirement growth. I happen to pick up a family from Canada recently who mentioned they have a relative who retired to a Mobile Home Park in Mesa and loves the living.

Many decades ago Mobile Homes became a popular affordable option in the desert. There must be many thousands of these especially in Phoenix and Mesa both cities with lots of land. Many have swimming pools and grassy park areas and older 'Parks' have mature trees and nice landscaping providing lots of nice shade. I've been in and out of many mobile home parks and my observation is that vey normal people live there.

It's less about a density debate as it is having a healthy supply of affordable options that grew with the area.

At least in the desert, retirement areas don't subtract from a better use of the land. Instead there's plenty of land for all manner of demographics and uses.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by SirLucasTheGreat

Here's a rendering of the new Amacon project.

I happen to pick up some guys from B.C. I believe they said they lived north of Vancouver. I brought up Toronto-based Amacon and Denver etc. But they wanted to set the record straight. Amacon is based in Vancouver and they started talking about the the people and history.

Googling can be fun.

Is Amacon a good developer?

With a spectacular portfolio of landmark developments in British Columbia, Ontario, Alberta, and Colorado. Amacon has established a highly regarded reputation for setting the standard in long term value with each and every development.

Who owns Amacon development?

Amacon is a privately-held, Canadian real estate company that was established in 1959 by Amalio DeCotiis, shortly after arriving in Canada from his native Italy. His first building was a 3-storey woodframe rental apartment in North Vancouver that the DeCotiis family still owns today.

[TakeFive]

Move into your new studio apartment August 1st



The Mercer Apartments - 2059 19th St






Images courtesy Greystar

Pre-leasing Specials

Receive 2 weeks free and a $3000 Gift Card when you lease one of our urban flats!

Side Pocket

Greystar Ordered To Pay $860M After Fatal Crane Collapse
April 27, 2023 By Dees Stribling, Bisnow National

The jury found that Greystar, which is also the largest U.S. apartment manger, bore some responsibility for the incident. During a thunderstorm in June of that year, a tower crane at a new Greystar apartment development collapsed into the neighboring Elan City Lights apartment complex.

The crane crashed through Smith's apartment, killing her. Five other people were injured in the incident. Smith's parents were the plaintiffs in the suit.

[TakeFive]

You remember Mr. Broe, presumably
(You can call me Patrick)

Country Club Towers II & III Named Denver’s Best Luxury Apartments

Located in the heart of Denver, at 1101 E. Bayaud Avenue, Towers II & III is a 552-unit luxury apartment community that combines architectural innovation with unmatched personal and professional services including a 5,000-square-foot spa and fitness club... The iconic two-building structure delivers a million square feet of premier luxury living to Denver.

Image courtesy Broe Real Estate Group

https://www.bizjournals.com/denver/n...ltifamily.html

Broe Real Estate Group, a division of The Broe Group, filed a concept plan recently for 50 S. Steel St., a large office building across from the Cherry Creek Shopping Center.

Plans indicate that Broe wants to tear the building down and build a 722,500-square-foot structure with 378 residential units. The proposed building would also come with 4,000 square feet of retail, 5,000 square feet for eating and drinking establishments and 611 total parking spaces.

[Darius C]

I am glad to hear that the land use code proposed by Gov. Polis is going nowhere:

https://www.denver7.com/news/politic...lative-session

A less heavy-handed proposal could have a chance in the next legislative session.

[SirLucasTheGreat]

You might be a crowd of one in this forum celebrating the death of that bill.

[Agent Orange]

Huh, interesting audience to choose to celebrate the death of a laudable bill that would have done a lot to make Colorado urbanism stronger. Did you think this was Neighborhood Character Page?

[mishko27]

Yeah, wrong crowd buddy. Don't join a crowd of YIMBYs with this BANANA crap

[twalm]

Luckily Polis sees this as a goal of his term and not just this session. He stated on CPR that he will keep pushing on this regardless if this first attempt dies.

https://www.cpr.org/2023/04/28/jared...land-use-bill/

[mr1138]

I was excited when the House put ADUs and density near transit back into the bill, and I was really hoping the Senate would at least give that version of the bill a vote. It was extremely disappointing to watch it sit on their docket for 3 days and never brought up for a vote.

But in retrospect, I now think the House probably knew full well they didn't have the right Senate, and may have actually intended to kill the Senate's version of the bill by putting the land use premptions back in - essentially punting the discussion until a future session. While I'm glad that they seem to be queueing this up for another push, I can't help but wonder - will they actually take this up again during an election year?

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by Darius C

I am glad to hear that the land use code proposed by Gov. Polis is going nowhere:

https://www.denver7.com/news/politic...lative-session

A less heavy-handed proposal could have a chance in the next legislative session.

If the Mayor of Denver along with city council President say it's wrong-headed than that's good enough for me.

BUT others can celebrate the State of Washington:

Washington governor signs law allowing duplexes, fourplexes
May 8, 2023 by Ed Komenda - AP

The law requires cities with populations between 25,000 and 75,000 to allow duplexes in all residential areas. Any area within a half-mile of a major transit stop, park or school would have to allow fourplexes. The building of fourplexes would be allowed anywhere if one unit meets affordable housing requirements.

In cities of over 75,000 people, all residential areas must allow fourplexes. Areas near major transit, parks or schools have to allow six-plexes, which would be allowed anywhere if two of the units are affordable.

[TakeFive]

Fantasies are Fun

I'm not categorically against up-zoning but it's a great example of liberal "feel good" changes that will accomplish very little if anything.

You want affordability, Portland and San Francisco are on the right path. Instead of "Law and Order" they've chosen disorder and chaos. Let the Good Guys "get out of town while the gettin' is good"

Life is what happens while your making other plans

New York and California lost over $90 billion in income to low-tax states during Covid

Downtown Portland's resemblance to a dead mall

Store closures are hitting Downtown San Francisco as office vacancies and fears of crime are on the rise. Here's the full list of retailers pulling out of the city's downtown neighborhood.

Your Choice should you choose to play

is should you follow the philosophers and the theoretical or simply "Follow the Money." Businesses vote with their feet. Buh Bye!

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

...I'm not categorically against up-zoning but it's a great example of liberal "feel good" changes that will accomplish very little if anything...

Why do folks feel the need to make that statement as if they have decades of data supporting an opinion like that? The kind of residential zoning flexibility hasn't been around for 70+ years, since the pre-war era - especially what Washington state has done. Nobody who is alive now really has any clue how this works or what will happen.

What we do know is that when zoning wasn't so controlled by local government regulations our neighborhoods developed to meet many more needs than current planning comes close to.

[mr1138]

Originally Posted by laniroj

Why do folks feel the need to make that statement as if they have decades of data supporting an opinion like that? The kind of residential zoning flexibility hasn't been around for 70+ years, since the pre-war era - especially what Washington state has done. Nobody who is alive now really has any clue how this works or what will happen.

What we do know is that when zoning wasn't so controlled by local government regulations our neighborhoods developed to meet many more needs than current planning comes close to.

It was soooo tiring listening to the opposition trot out this argument again, and again, and again. And citing California's SB 9 as if it offers some kind of evidence that upzoning doesn't work. That law went into effect on January 1, 2022 - not even 1.5 years ago.

Just the planning and permit approval process for an infill project can take 2-3 years. Plus, the developers who will do these kinds of projects have to start shopping for land first. It wouldn't have made any sense for developers to be buying up land before the law was passed and with no guarantee of future development potential. In fact - it probably isn't too big of a stretch to say that some of the small-scale developers who will do this kind of infill may not even be in business yet. There are likely investors out there right now who are still in the very early stages of formulating their business plans and watching real estate trends.

I would guess it will take at least 5-10 years to see even preliminary data that would indicate whether the new law is working. We certainly can't declare it a "failure" after less than 2 years. Though given this reality - perhaps "More Housing Now!" wasn't the best hyperbolic political slogan to use.

What we do know about California's new laws (as was cited during one of the recent public hearings) is that they have seen a ten-fold increase in applications for ADUs. This makes sense as these tend to be homeowner-initiated applications for properties they already own, so they can gear up much more quickly than the developers who do infill. It also shows just how much interest is out there to already see such a steep uptick in permit applications.

[TakeFive]

It goes to my libertarian side

Originally Posted by laniroj

Why do folks feel the need to make that statement as if they have decades of data supporting an opinion like that? The kind of residential zoning flexibility hasn't been around for 70+ years, since the pre-war era - especially what Washington state has done. Nobody who is alive now really has any clue how this works or what will happen.

What we do know is that when zoning wasn't so controlled by local government regulations our neighborhoods developed to meet many more needs than current planning comes close to.

I'm not a fan of NANNY Government. At the Federal level it's more typically liberals but at the state level it can be either. Just look at all the idiotic laws being passed in Red States. Too many people with too much power want to tell others what to believe and what they must do to satisfy those in power.

Bottom Line is I don't like the State dictating to municipalities because a small group of legislators think they know what is best for everybody else. The other thing is that there is a Big difference between The City of Denver and suburban communities.

But above all else any supposed improvements will only be at the margins. There's other things that are much more important for attaining affordability. What about property taxes for example? They handed our a few nickels to make everybody feel better. So typical of Blue States.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by mr1138

Just the planning and permit approval process for an infill project can take 2-3 years. Plus, the developers who will do these kinds of projects have to start shopping for land first. It wouldn't have made any sense for developers to be buying up land before the law was passed and with no guarantee of future development potential. In fact - it probably isn't too big of a stretch to say that some of the small-scale developers who will do this kind of infill may not even be in business yet. There are likely investors out there right now who are still in the very early stages of formulating their business plans and watching real estate trends.

With respect to "infill" within Denver, there's plenty of land still available but none of the developers so far are interested in duplexes or fourplexes; they all want to build higher density units like 5 stories and up. I 'may' have read that Fox Park may include some missing middle housing.

With respect to the suburbs I'm not sure how many people are even aware of what is going on since we don't focus on it and in many cases you need to be 'in the business' to know.

Construction of Colorado’s Largest Net-Zero-Ready Affordable Housing Development Underway
May 8, 2023 - Mile High CRE


Willoughby Corner will ultimately bring 400 new rentals and for sale affordable homes to Lafayette in 2024.

102 Townhomes Available for Rent in Castle Rock
May 2, 2023 - Mile High CRE


Canvas at Castle Rock, courtesy of Watermark Companies

Most suburban communities have trended to more mixed-use, mixed-density projects. Lone Tree obviously; out by DIA absolutely; Westminster starting soon; Commerce City you bet. Just b/c you're not aware of it doesn't mean it isn't happening.

[TakeFive]

New Construction In Denver



1894 So Williams St - Bargain priced for $715,000.