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  #61  
Old Posted Nov 23, 2010, 12:43 AM
Don B. Don B. is offline
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^ They are smoking something. Just my unprofessional opinion.

--don
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  #62  
Old Posted Nov 23, 2010, 12:47 AM
Leo the Dog Leo the Dog is offline
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I'm looking forward to the 2010 census figures.
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  #63  
Old Posted Nov 23, 2010, 3:49 AM
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Originally Posted by Don B. View Post
^ They are smoking something. Just my unprofessional opinion.

--don
Phoenix may indeed have flat to negative growth at the moment, but my guess is that the final numbers will come out somewhere around 1.7M. My reason for thinking so is entirely based on better and more accurate counting methods in this census vs. the last. Remember in 2000 how many cities (including Phoenix) came in way higher than previous estimates.
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  #64  
Old Posted Nov 23, 2010, 3:52 AM
HX_Guy HX_Guy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Don B. View Post
^ They are smoking something. Just my unprofessional opinion.

--don
Why? Th numbers are the numbers right? They don't lie.
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  #65  
Old Posted Nov 23, 2010, 2:40 PM
Leo the Dog Leo the Dog is offline
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I think the 1.7 M figure is correct. Phoenix is a 'city' with many young families having babies. In other cities, the natural growth rate is much lower because the households must move out to the suburbs to raise children.
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  #66  
Old Posted Nov 23, 2010, 5:15 PM
Vicelord John Vicelord John is offline
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does the 1.7M figure include Mexicans? I bet the population of Phoenix is closing in on 2M in reality.
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  #67  
Old Posted Nov 23, 2010, 7:54 PM
Don B. Don B. is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plinko View Post
Phoenix may indeed have flat to negative growth at the moment, but my guess is that the final numbers will come out somewhere around 1.7M. My reason for thinking so is entirely based on better and more accurate counting methods in this census vs. the last. Remember in 2000 how many cities (including Phoenix) came in way higher than previous estimates.
This is true. Still, I have a hard time believing Phoenix will be anywhere near 1.7 mil for the 2010 census.

--don
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  #68  
Old Posted Nov 27, 2010, 3:57 AM
RTD RTD is offline
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I think a real, serious question that people in Phoenix should be asking themselves is "yes, population growth is good, but WHAT TYPE OF PEOPLE ARE FUELLING THAT GROWTH?"

Are they the young, highly educated professionals looking for high paying jobs with large, major companies? Are they young families who are looking for new opportunities? Are they the northern snowbirds who are only wintering in the city then vacating back up north come summertime? Are they the uneducated, lower income people who will be a burden on the tax system and contribute to more poverty and crime in the city?

I would think that as a city, you would want to fully understand who is pushing your growth, as those people will likely be the building blocks for the future generations who will determine what kind of metropolitan area Phoenix will become.
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  #69  
Old Posted Nov 27, 2010, 6:24 AM
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PHX31 PHX31 is offline
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/\worthless post.

that is a "question" that every city is wondering about.
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  #70  
Old Posted Nov 27, 2010, 3:31 PM
RTD RTD is offline
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Originally Posted by PHX31 View Post
/\worthless post.

that is a "question" that every city is wondering about.
Wow. Try to contribute to a conversation and this is what you get? Thanks for making me feel welcome here in your subsection. Maybe it is relevant to every city, but since Phoenix, and Arizona in general, are facing some serious social challenges as of late, I figured it was worth emphasizing. I hardly deem my comment "worthless", but your reply to it would indicate to me just how much class you have as a person: none.
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  #71  
Old Posted Nov 27, 2010, 3:43 PM
Vicelord John Vicelord John is offline
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I think you made him think of himself, RTD.
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  #72  
Old Posted Nov 29, 2010, 5:20 PM
ljbuild ljbuild is offline
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SPEAKING OF THAT SWATH OF BARREN LAND CALLED THE
"GILA RIVER INDAIN COMMUNITY"

It is possible that "open" area can turn into a strip of CASINOS LINING THE INTERSTATE!!!

Look at that new hotel with the BLUE NEON SIGN that is north of Firebird lake.

That could very well be the Initial spark to set off a wave of more casinos

to line up along I-10. Where is most of the most of the traffic in Az.

OUTSIDE OF THE PHX & TUCSON metro areas?

On the Interstate (1-10) Between them.

So with that being said, the Gila indian communty says " WHY DONT WE

CATCH SOME OF THAT TRAFFIC " & bring them into new casinos !!!!!!
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  #73  
Old Posted Nov 29, 2010, 9:23 PM
NorthScottsdale NorthScottsdale is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ljbuild View Post
SPEAKING OF THAT SWATH OF BARREN LAND CALLED THE
"GILA RIVER INDAIN COMMUNITY"

It is possible that "open" area can turn into a strip of CASINOS LINING THE INTERSTATE!!!

Look at that new hotel with the BLUE NEON SIGN that is north of Firebird lake.

That could very well be the Initial spark to set off a wave of more casinos

to line up along I-10. Where is most of the most of the traffic in Az.

OUTSIDE OF THE PHX & TUCSON metro areas?

On the Interstate (1-10) Between them.

So with that being said, the Gila indian communty says " WHY DONT WE

CATCH SOME OF THAT TRAFFIC " & bring them into new casinos !!!!!!
I've actually always had this same idea, except not along the I-10. I've always thought the indians should build a bunch of high-rise casinos off of the 101 near indian school and camelback.. sort of tie it in to old town scottsdale..
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  #74  
Old Posted Nov 29, 2010, 9:36 PM
HX_Guy HX_Guy is offline
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Or at Indian Bend where the new Talking Stick casino is and also the new Diamondbacks Spring Training campus. I really like how they've built the latest casinos, it's a huge step up from the old ones and really do have Vegas feel to them. I go to the ones on Indian Bend pretty regularly to play 3-6 poker.
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  #75  
Old Posted Nov 30, 2010, 5:48 AM
Cardsfan Cardsfan is offline
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I like the idea as well except Arizona gaming laws would need to be altered. Only 3600 additional slot machines are allowed in the entire state or about enough for three casinos.

http://www.gm.state.az.us/aboutus.htm
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  #76  
Old Posted Nov 30, 2010, 6:12 PM
Don B. Don B. is offline
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I believe logic would dictate that any growth Phoenix tends to attract is skewed towards poorer and older conservative people. Young progressive liberals will not be attracted to a city like Phoenix. I think that some more progressive people have left the state in the last two years.

Las Vegas is losing population. I think Phoenix's population has been stagnant since 2007 and may be slowly declining. There's some evidence for my assertion: tax revenues continue to fall, trash collections are down, utility hookups have fallen and the number of business licenses has declined each year since 2007. Phoenix has lost more than 400,000 jobs since 2006. It's absurd to think that those people are still here -- I'm sure a lot have left.

One of the biggest factors limiting people from moving here, regardless of who or what they are, is that they can't sell their home where they live to move here. And it's not like Phoenix is creating jobs for them to take when they get here.

To recap:

1. In 2000, the city of Phoenix had a census count of about 1.3 million people; the metro area (Maricopa and Pinal Counties) was 3.3 million.

2. By 2006, Phoenix had increased to about 1.6 million, and the metro area had topped 4 million, as a result of significant strong growth during the boom.

3. Despite the government's subsequent population estimates showing continued growth, I think the anecdotal data shows a decline in overall population. One thing for sure, the legal and illegal Hispanic population is dropping rapidly. Entire suburban areas of Phoenix are riddled with vacant foreclosed homes.

4. I predict that the official 2010 census count will show somewhere between 1.5 and 1.7 million people, with my mid-point prediction at about 1.6 million for the city of Phoenix. This would be an increase from 2000, but a slight decline from the peak estimate of 1.6 million in 2006 before the recession. Likewise, the metro population of Phoenix will end up at between 4.1 and 4.4 million, with my mid-point prediction at about 4.2 to 4.3 million.

--don
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  #77  
Old Posted Dec 2, 2010, 12:35 AM
HX_Guy HX_Guy is offline
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Don, I still don't understand how you come up with your estimates when the figures show that the numbers are actually up. Are you saying that the figures are actually wrong and that your guess is actually right?

Additionally, an article from today actually shows that a quarter of new moves to Arizona are 20 - 29 year olds while retirees make up only 10%.

http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/b...ing-bunch.html

Last edited by HX_Guy; Dec 2, 2010 at 12:49 AM.
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  #78  
Old Posted Dec 2, 2010, 12:41 AM
Vicelord John Vicelord John is offline
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Don, Are you saying that the figures are actually wrong and that your guess is actually right?
wouldn't surprise me with Don's attitude.
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  #79  
Old Posted Dec 2, 2010, 4:17 PM
Leo the Dog Leo the Dog is offline
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Originally Posted by Don B. View Post
I believe logic would dictate that any growth Phoenix tends to attract is skewed towards poorer and older conservative people. Young progressive liberals will not be attracted to a city like Phoenix.
This is just non-sense and its sad that a Phoenician would spew the ignorant stereotypical, conservative white-retiree stats out there.

At last check, Phoenix was close or even surpassed the majority minority of 50% hispanic. San Francisco has experienced a surge in white population since the 2000 Census.

Phoenix's median age (30-31 years) is also much lower than San Francisco (40 years).
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  #80  
Old Posted Dec 2, 2010, 10:12 PM
Don B. Don B. is offline
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More proof that Phoenix could be losing population. Anthem certainly is not alone in terms of having population loss due to foreclosures and recessionary influences:

http://www.azcentral.com/community/n...-hoa-fees.html

About 35,000 people live in Anthem, down from about 40,000 before the recession.

--don
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