Why is Saint John losing population?

[hired_goons]

Between the last two censuses (2011 and 2016) the city of Saint John lost about 3,000 residents. (-2.2%)
In that same period the other two cities in NB added citizens- Fredericton up 3.5% and Moncton up 4%
I have 2 questions for my NB friends:
Any particular reason for that population decline in SJ?
Is Saint John still losing people since the 2016 census?

[MonctonRad]

If you're referring to the city of Saint John, rather than the Saint John CMA, the big difference between SJ and it's two NB cousins is that Saint John is losing population to it's more prosperous suburbs of Rothesay and Quispamsis. The Saint John CMA itself isn't growing, but the population is relatively stable.

The problem of SJ therefore is that it resembles a lot of rust belt cities in the northern US. I do not mean this in any purjorative sense whatsoever, but it is a simple truth that Saint John has trouble competing with it's suburbs for population growth. Saint John is directly on the Bay of Fundy, is frequently cold and foggy in the summertime, is dominated by heavy industry and has an unreasonably high tax rate (due to the heavy industries in the city not being made to pay their fair share). The suburbs on the other hand are located on the picturesque Kennebecasis River, are far enough from the sea to not have to deal with fog in the summer, have no heavy industry and have more reasonable taxation (spread more equitably, no need to subsidize heavy industry).

Because of this dichotomy, those people who can afford to flee the city for the Kennebecasis Valley do so, leaving behind a rump population of poorer individuals in the city proper. I probably have made the situation gloomier than it sounds, and the uptown area of SJ is currently undergoing an urban renaissance, so there is hope, but SJ's struggles will continue.

Ideally the solution should be to amalgamate the entire CMA as a single city, but this is a political issue that no politician will touch with a 3.2m pole..........

[Helladog]

Saint John has been loosing people since at least the early 70’s- the city that is. As mentioned, the suburbs have absorbed most net growth. There has been an exception or two in census results, but the population is fairly stable. With the influx of immigrants recently, I bet the city is up a bit since 2016 (just a guess).

Saint John suffers from a boom-bust cycle of energy related and industrial projects, and needs to diversify more in order to truly grow.

Population growth to perpetuity is unsustainable anyway. Saint John is still a great city!

[Dengler Avenue]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

If you're referring to the city of Saint John, rather than the Saint John CMA, the big difference between SJ and it's two NB cousins is that Saint John is losing population to it's more prosperous suburbs of Rothesay and Quispamsis. The Saint John CMA itself isn't growing, but the population is relatively stable.

The problem of SJ therefore is that it resembles a lot of rust belt cities in the northern US. I do not mean this in any purjorative sense whatsoever, but it is a simple truth that Saint John has trouble competing with it's suburbs for population growth. Saint John is directly on the Bay of Fundy, is frequently cold and foggy in the summertime, is dominated by heavy industry and has an unreasonably high tax rate (due to the heavy industries in the city not being made to pay their fair share). The suburbs on the other hand are located on the picturesque Kennebecasis River, are far enough from the sea to not have to deal with fog in the summer, have no heavy industry and have more reasonable taxation (spread more equitably, no need to subsidize heavy industry).

Because of this dichotomy, those people who can afford to flee the city for the Kennebecasis Valley do so, leaving behind a rump population of poorer individuals in the city proper. I probably have made the situation gloomier than it sounds, and the uptown area of SJ is currently undergoing an urban renaissance, so there is hope, but SJ's struggles will continue.

Ideally the solution should be to amalgamate the entire CMA as a single city, but this is a political issue that no politician will touch with a 3.2m pole..........

Really? I thought it’d be nice to be able to see the Bay from your window.

[JHikka]

Saint John City loses population as the Saint John CMA maintains or increases its population. People move to the suburbs from the city, or vice versa. Natural increase in the city is lower than they are in the surrounding communities.

We'll have a better idea of things once the new CMA numbers are released in February, but increased international immigration is the only reason why the city proper's population hasn't further declined. SJ hasn't been seeing the interprovincial migration boost that Moncton and Fredericton have seen and SJ still has a negative intraprovincial migration rate (meaning people moving from SJ to Moncton or Fredericton).

This is a topic that keeps coming up on the main Canada forum but a few of us are wondering when this stigma that the Maritime provinces are declining will end. All three are increasing in population and have been for some time.

This entire topic is mostly looking at raw numbers, though; Uptown Saint John is arguably the best right now that it's been in decades.

[Fischbob]

As previous posters have said, the CMA has seen little growth due to a stagnant economy, and the city proper has historically lost population to the suburban communities.

It should be noted that at the CMA level at least, Saint John is growing (stabilizing?) again, having added an estimated ~1300 people since bottoming out in 2015.


Source

Breaking down the components of population change below, it's apparent that this uptick is due to increased immigration along with a stemming of the bleeding in terms of reduced negative net interprovincial migration.


Source

We'll have to wait until the 2021 Census to see how this shakes out at the sub-CMA level, but a lot of those higher immigration numbers are due to the influx of Syrian refugees, and by and large they settled within the City proper.

The outlook for Saint John's population into the future is a slow-growth scenario, to be sure. This presents challenges in terms of the pace at which we can develop/revitalize our urban neighbourhoods, especially when the suburbs are siphoning off a portion of what little growth we're experiencing. Economic diversification is part of the solution to this quandary, as is attracting new residents who value/prefer an urban lifestyle. The City has hung its hat on newcomer attraction and retention as its primary strategy to drive population growth going forward.

Again, we'll see the 2021 Census brings.

[Bishop2047]

As stated above, the CMA is not changing much slight decline followed but modest increases for years now. The city proper hemorrhages people while Quispamsis and Rothesay are frequently noted as two of the most prosperous and fastest growing communities in the maritimes.
I am glad the uptown revitalization was mentioned. Got to say, anyone who loves canadian history, and wants to see probably the most underappreciated city from an architecture standpoint should pencil this city in on your must visit list.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

Really? I thought it’d be nice to be able to see the Bay from your window.

That is if you can see the bay through the fog........

Just kidding of course, but summertime is a precious commodity in Canada, and a prolonged foggy spell in July can be demoralizing.

The reason why fog is common in SJ in the summertime is that prevailing (warm) winds during the summer are from the SW, which means they travel up the Bay of Fundy, which is a cold body of water. This can blanket the coastal regions of NB in a dense fog which can last for days (until the wind direction changes). Meanwhile, a few km inland, beyond the reach of the fog, a hot continental climate prevails during the summertime with sunny weather and high humidity. This is true for the entire upper reaches of the Bay of Fundy.

I vividly remember one time in Moncton about 20 years ago (before we got central air conditioning in my house), an oppressively hot day in July with the temperature about 34C and really high humidity, where we couldn't stand it any more and we piled in the car to drive down to Fundy National Park to cool off. The fog became visible on the horizon just beyond Riverside-Albert and by the time we reached the park, the temperature was down to 12C. There was a heavy mist and we hadn't brought the proper clothes and we were so cold we had to leave again! A short climb up to the Caledonia Highlands (400m elevation), still in the park boundary and we were back up to the low thirties again!! It was quite remarkable.

Don't get me wrong. I like fog (in the proper quantities), but days on end can be hard to take. I also like what they've accomplished so far with the urban renaissance in uptown SJ. With a proper tax regime, and with enough financial backing, the port city still has a chance for a bright future. The cruise ship industry has certainly taken notice of the charms of the city.........

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Ideally the solution should be to amalgamate the entire CMA as a single city

The City of Saint John is already one of the larger municipal geographic entities in Canada relative to its population. I know a few people who have advocated for lopping off areas of the city to make municipal management easier for services. The city has a ton of rural land that has to be serviced. Adding GBW/Valley would add population base but also additional geographic size.

I will say, however, that any distance beyond the current suburbs begins to become infeasible for daily commutes. Some people do the Hampton commute but I think that is the limit of reason for suburban distance to/from the city. I don't think suburban sprawl really gets any further than Quispamsis.

The suburban communities will continue to face increasing financial implications as they grow and as their populations expect municipal servicing. I know suburban property tax rates, for one, have been increasing as Saint John's remains flat. The current feasibility of the suburbs only lasts so long before they start having to equal municipal services found in the city proper.