The Economy: what does it mean for Portland?

[bvpcvm]

I'm not an economist, but I do read the news, and it sounds like we're headed for, if not already in, the toilet. So when I hear all these grand plans for the North Pearl or Goodman's parking lots or SOWA (or excited comments here about "-- maybe a new tallest???") I've started rolling my eyes and taking a deep breath. I'd like to know what people who actually know something about economics think we're in for and, more specifically, what it means for development here. Is the North Pearl doomed to remain just a plan in someone's drawer for the next ten years? Will SOWA remain mostly dirt and heavy industry? Will we be ruefully laughing at the naivete of our city-wide streetcar plan in five years? Will the anticipated 500,000 new residents stay at home in cheaper places like Tulsa, leaving our grand plans for accommodation of a growing population obsolete?

I'm probably more paranoid than most - I lived in Russia in the 90's and saw the ruble go from ~100/$ to 5500/$ over the course of two years, so when the dollar goes from $1.40/euro (four months ago) to $1.57/euro (today), I start to get nervous. The scale of decline is different of course - for now, at least.

On the other hand, this whole country has been in a funk since 9/11 - I've read that vast majorities of the population thinks that we're due for some major catastrophe - and maybe that's coloring all these news reports lately.

Well? Where does this leave us?

[rsbear]

That's a great question, and I don't think anyone knows the answer regarding the short-term. I worried about the same thing during the recession (locally more like a depression) of the early 1980's. It was BAD in Oregon and except for public works projects (like MAX) there was almost no development downtown for seven or so years (the span of time between the completion of Big Pink/KOIN/PacWest (early 80's) and Pioneer Place in 1990). But activity did pick-up (obviously) and, my god, the past eight years have been the biggest boom in the City since the 1920's. Development waves are like a roller coaster ride, and we always scream the loudest on the downhill part, but throughout history there's always been another boom after each bust.

[tworivers]

Who knows? Anything could happen.

Our economic system has proven itself to be remarkably resilient, but it also has only been around for a blink of the eye and sooner or later it will come to some sort of probably-unpleasant (but maybe not) end. How many more boom-and-bust cycles before we fail to recover? How about a 200-year bust with a partial recovery before complete dark-ages-style collapse? Again, who knows? In the words of anthropologists Lee and Devore, "It is still an open question whether man will be able to survive the exceedingly complex and unstable ecological conditions he has created for himself. If he fails in this task, interplanetary archaeologists of the future will classify our planet as one in which a very long and stable period of small-scale hunting and gathering was followed by an apparently instantaneous efflorescence of technology and society leading rapidly to extinction."

I do love seeing all the government intervention, though. Gee, so much for the "free market", huh? I mean, it's always like this, but it gets really glaring in times of distress, when it looks like the house of cards really could come down.

[cab]

I don't know, the way the Feds are pouring money into the market I think its the masses that will be feeling the pain in inflation. The big money will probably be able to still play the game. I've always felt the goal of many in this administration is to turn us into a new version of Mexico. Cheap labor with a wealthy ruling class passed along family lines.

[zilfondel]

^ and the complete bankruptcy of every public institution, such as Amtrak, Social Security and Medicare.