Oregon Population Thread Including PSU and Census Data

[urbanlife]

Originally Posted by dubu

with 4.1 million people in oregon (the se part no one live because its a desert, oregon isnt that big actually) theres only one big city and its more a big town. what happens when theres 10 million people?

I am gonna have to disagree with you on the town label, Portland is well past being labeled a town anymore. It is moving into big city status as it starts to take on big city problems.

Oregon land wise is a big state, but population wise Oregon is in the middle of the pack with much of our population along the I-5 corridor, and even then the majority of the population is in the northern part.

I wouldn't be surprised to see some serious growth in cities like Salem and Eugene, even Bend and surrounding towns will probably see some serious growth in the future.

[MarkDaMan]

http://www.oregonlive.com/front-porc...2box_targeted_

Portland-area population growth slows to lowest level since 2013, Census Bureau says
Updated Mar 21, 9:03 PM; Posted Mar 21, 9:01 PM
By Elliot Njus enjus@oregonian.com
The Oregonian/OregonLive

New Census numbers suggests the Portland area's population boom could be losing steam.

The metro area grew by just over 30,000 residents in the year that ended July 1, according to the Census Bureau. That's a population increase of about 1.2 percent, or 578 people a week -- the region's slowest growth since 2013.

That put the metro population at 2.45 million as of July 1. Portland remains the nation's 25th largest metro area, a position it has held since 2012.

The slowdown isn't unexpected. In fact, demographers say it was inevitable after three years of exceptionally strong population growth.

"It's still growing very fast, just not as fast as it was in 2015 and 2016," said Nick Chun, who coordinates forecasts at Portland State University's Population Research Center. "It's really difficult to describe how abnormal a lot of the growth is that these areas saw in those years."

The Portland metro added nearly 40,000 people each year in 2015 and 2016, according to the Census Bureau.

...(continues)

[MarkDaMan]

https://www.oregonlive.com/expo/news...2box_targeted_

Portland neighborhoods ranked by new housing units per 1,000 residents (graphics)
By Mark Graves | The Oregonian/OregonLive | Posted August 06, 2018 at 05:05 AM | Updated August 06, 2018 at 03:35 PM

The constructions cranes tell the tale of Portland’s dramatic growth in recent years.

They’ve spread from downtown, the Pearl District and the South Waterfront to the inner east side and North Portland, where construction crews have been building new homes by the thousands.

But some neighborhoods are growing faster than others.

Some that were previously sparse with residents are now seeing a massive influx. Others made up mostly of single-family houses are seeing more auxiliary dwelling units — or ADUs, a bureaucratic term for “granny flats” or backyard apartments — as well as townhouses and apartment buildings.

Some districts have seen growth in the form of new houses and ADUs popping up seemingly on every block. Others have added just a few apartment buildings, but hundreds of new residents in each.

The Oregonian/OregonLive used permit data from the Portland Bureau of Development Services and population data from Portland State University to compare the number of new housing units built in each neighborhood this decade to their populations in 2010. We ranked them by the number of new homes per 1,000 existing residents.

Here are the 20 that have absorbed the most growth in the last eight years — plus a comparison of 91 of Portland’s neighborhoods.

-- Elliot Njus

...(continues)

[winstonLT5]

Per this article, recent census data puts Portland #1 among metropolitan areas with the largest percentage increase in millennials over the past 5 years. While PDX metro has shown strong population growth in recent years, I don't think we rate close to #1 as a whole across all demographics. So I guess the stereotype of Portland as a millennial haven still rings true...

Where are millennials moving?
by Tom Anderson | Haven Life | July 17, 2019

The term “millennial” brings to mind a certain image — that of an urban dwelling, craft-brew drinking, Uber-riding young adult. Of course, a whole generation can’t be pigeon-holed into one specific stereotype. Millennials, defined by the Pew Research Center as people born between 1981 and 1996, will soon surpass the number of baby boomers and is now the largest generation in the U.S. labor force. In the U.S., their numbers hover around 73 million.

While critical stereotypes of millennials abound, millennials are also viewed...

...(continues)

[urbanlife]

Originally Posted by winstonLT5

Per this article, recent census data puts Portland #1 among metropolitan areas with the largest percentage increase in millennials over the past 5 years. While PDX metro has shown strong population growth in recent years, I don't think we rate close to #1 as a whole across all demographics. So I guess the stereotype of Portland as a millennial haven still rings true...

That actually explains a lot about the growth that has been happening in Raleigh, which good for them. If I was still living in the Mid-Atlantic, Raleigh is where I would have probably unless I moved northward to Philly or NYC, had I not moved to the PNW.

[NOPO]

Does anyone know how sea level rise will affect Portland? We may be growing now, but if we don’t stop climate change the major city in Oregon may not be Portland by 2050-2075.

[eric cantona]

Originally Posted by NOPO

Does anyone know how sea level rise will affect Portland? We may be growing now, but if we don’t stop climate change the major city in Oregon may not be Portland by 2050-2075.

try this:

https://riskfinder.climatecentral.or...evel=2&unit=ft

[NOPO]

Originally Posted by eric cantona

try this:

https://riskfinder.climatecentral.or...evel=2&unit=ft

It looks like we’re at risk of temporary flooding, but not permanent. Hopefully, we can be a refuge city for people living on the coast.

[Derek]

I'd imagine if worst comes to worst it would be (relatively) easy to put dams or a lock system on the Columbia to prevent the rising seawater from moving upstream.

[dubu]

Originally Posted by Derek

I'd imagine if worst comes to worst it would be (relatively) easy to put dams or a lock system on the Columbia to prevent the rising seawater from moving upstream.

I don't think the rivers is Oregon will dry up. maybe California

if that happened then we would all be dead anyways.

[CorbinWarrick]

https://www.kgw.com/article/news/loc...=snd-autopilot

[sopdx]

This info has been regurgitated many times considering the age of the stats (July 1, 2021) We went through an international health crisis. Many cities lost population during that period due to the pandemic.

Funnily, PSU has different figures with the same release on July 1, 2021, and doesn't show the drop.
https://www.pdx.edu/news/psus-popula...on-estimates-0

What will be more telling are the next population estimates as we emerge from the crises. PSU usually releases their numbers in November.

[MarkDaMan]

Polite reminder that links one would like to share need to be formatted with enough information including the title, source and first paragraph or two on the webpage (or a description if it's a modeling scenario), along with appropriate links/attribution. This prevents hacked accounts from posting phishing links and provides information about the topic so people can decide if they'd like to look further. When a link is protected by a paywall, it's also helpful to know that as well (which isn't the case here.)

[CorbinWarrick]

Sorry about that Mark. Will do

[Rob Nob]

I am hopeful that news like this will have a further downward effect on housing prices close in. The unsustainable growth in local home prices needs to reflect the income of first time home buyers and not what investors and renters are willing to pay.

[PhillyPDX]

Not sure where to post this, so “downtown” being the metro hub seemed most appropriate. Saw this posted on the Philly page. Interesting read:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...er-cities.html

[uncommon.name]

Originally Posted by PhillyPDX

Not sure where to post this, so “downtown” being the metro hub seemed most appropriate. Saw this posted on the Philly page. Interesting read:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...er-cities.html

Damn paywall

[PhillyPDX]

Originally Posted by uncommon.name

Damn paywall

Ohh….hmmm. I usually view in private mode and it works.

[MarkDaMan]

Originally Posted by PhillyPDX

Not sure where to post this, so “downtown” being the metro hub seemed most appropriate. Saw this posted on the Philly page. Interesting read:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...er-cities.html

Please make sure when posting a news link that you provide context as well as a [$] prior to the link if it's paywalled.

PhillyPDX posted an article from the NYT about the mass migration of college educated folks from cities to more rural counties. According to the [$]article, this is the migration of college graduates from the 12 most expensive large metropolitan areas in the US from the aughts to current:




and here's the Portland trend during the same time frame:

[subterranean]

Originally Posted by MarkDaMan

Please make sure when posting a news link that you provide context as well as a [$] prior to the link if it's paywalled.

PhillyPDX posted an article from the NYT about the mass migration of college educated folks from cities to more rural counties. According to the [$]article, this is the migration of college graduates from the 12 most expensive large metropolitan areas in the US from the aughts to current:




and here's the Portland trend during the same time frame:

This makes sense and I'm not really surprised at all. My family does considerably better financially than average and we've considered leaving for a lower COL area because it's pretty crazy that we can't really afford to move into a bigger house locally.

The average home value in metro Portland is $543,308 (Zillow), which means a household needs to make $146,000 per year (with 5% down) for an FHA mortgage at today's interest rates in order to afford the average house. Median household income is $78,476 as of 2022. Median income for a family of four is $105,000. The "drive until you qualify" doesn't really apply to Oregon, however, because the UGB/SDCs, etc. Places like Salem have caught up to our Metro prices because they're effectively now acting as Portland's sprawl area bedroom community.