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Old Posted Sep 27, 2018, 2:56 PM
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10 Million Toronto

Which do you think will occur first:

Greater Toronto hitting 10M population
-or-
Canada having 10 cities with a metro of at least 1 million


Toronto is at 6M now so requires another 4M people to reach 10M.

Canada already has 6 metros over 1M so a further 4 are required to reach 10.

Here are the top most populous CMA's as of 2016 census:
1. Toronto 5.9m
2. Montreal 4m
3. Vancouver 2.4m
4. Calgary 1.3m
5. Ottawa 1.3m
6. Edmonton 1.3m
7. QuebecCity 800k
8. Winnipeg 778k
9. Hamilton 747k
10. Kit/Water 523k
------------------
11. london 494k
12. st cath. 406k
13. halifax 400k

If you're cheering for 10 cities >1M before Toronto's 10M I fear it is the 10th spot that will let you down. Asking a city like London or K-W do double it's population before Toronto (6.1% growth rate) adds another 4M seems a little much.
Of course this will take decades either way and anything can happen.
Come on, Halifax!
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  #2  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2018, 2:59 PM
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Greater Toronto hitting 10M
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  #3  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2018, 3:05 PM
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I'll take the long odds and say we'll hit 10 1Million first.

As noted the Top 9 are easy enough to reach there.

The 10th slot will be Halifax happening after Nova Scotia gets 1 million, and the province amalgamates the entire province into the Halifax regional Municipality.

More seriously, KW by itself is a long shot to crack the 7 digits by itself, but it also seems to be 'cheating' by pulling in Cambridge (already absorbed) and possibly snagging Guelph. That could be the boost it needs to beat Toronto's 10 million milestone.
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Old Posted Sep 27, 2018, 3:08 PM
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What is the population of the Greater Golden Horseshoe? That's got to be pushing 7 or 8 million by now.

But yeah, it will be a long, long time before we have 10 metros with 1 million.
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  #5  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2018, 3:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Calgarian View Post
What is the population of the Greater Golden Horseshoe? That's got to be pushing 7 or 8 million by now.

But yeah, it will be a long, long time before we have 10 metros with 1 million.
Just the population of the Golden Horseshoe listed in the OP you get over 8 million; and I don't believe it includes Windsor or Guelph or Chatham or Niagara (possibly included in St cats?). It all depends on where you put the limits of the horseshoe; It may not be correct but I'd stretch it along the bulk of the SOON region from Windsor to Toronto and Niagara)

Even if you limit the horseshoe to K/W, that still puts it around 7.5M based on the OPs numbers, and may not include Guelph and Niagara.

Are Mississagua and Brampton included in the Toronto CMA?

So yeah, the Horseshoe will probably easily crack 10million within the decade or so.

Getting the 10th 1M city will be challenging for Cananda, but it will probably be in Ontario regardless, KWCG or London most likely.
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Old Posted Sep 27, 2018, 3:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Calgarian View Post
What is the population of the Greater Golden Horseshoe? That's got to be pushing 7 or 8 million by now.

But yeah, it will be a long, long time before we have 10 metros with 1 million.
GGH Population: 9.245 million (2016)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Horseshoe
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Old Posted Sep 27, 2018, 3:40 PM
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For us out west, Toronto is the Hamilton/Toronto/Oshawa CMAs. For those in the area, it's municipal Toronto. For those in a Toronto, it's Old Toronto.

My cousin says anything north of Eglington is rural
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Old Posted Sep 27, 2018, 4:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mistercorporate View Post
GGH Population: 9.245 million (2016)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Horseshoe
Damn, may have already broken the 10 million mark then, if Toronto was in the USA, the MSA number would likely be the GGH (or a very large portion of it) lol.
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Old Posted Sep 27, 2018, 4:23 PM
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If we were just to extrapolate the annualized population increase between 2011 and 2016 (far from a foolproof methodology, of course), then based on 2016 CMA populations these would be the results:

Quebec City will reach 1 million in 2041
Winnipeg will reach 1 million in 2054
Hamilton will reach 1 million in 2063
Toronto (CMA only) will reach 10 million in 2075
Kitchener will reach 1 million in 2102

However, the GTAH would reach 10 million by 2053
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Old Posted Sep 27, 2018, 4:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin View Post
If we were just to extrapolate the annualized population increase between 2011 and 2016 (far from a foolproof methodology, of course), then based on 2016 CMA populations these would be the results:

Quebec City will reach 1 million in 2041
Winnipeg will reach 1 million in 2054
Hamilton will reach 1 million in 2063
Toronto (CMA only) will reach 10 million in 2075
Kitchener will reach 1 million in 2102

However, the GTAH would reach 10 million by 2053
Given the growth rate in Saskatoon between 2011 and 2016 would give them a million people in 2068.
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Old Posted Sep 27, 2018, 4:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Calgarian View Post
Damn, may have already broken the 10 million mark then, if Toronto was in the USA, the MSA number would likely be the GGH (or a very large portion of it) lol.
I think you mean the CSA.
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Old Posted Sep 27, 2018, 5:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taeolas View Post
More seriously, KW by itself is a long shot to crack the 7 digits by itself, but it also seems to be 'cheating' by pulling in Cambridge (already absorbed) and possibly snagging Guelph. That could be the boost it needs to beat Toronto's 10 million milestone.
How so? They literally touch...

They are part of the same regional government.

They share multiple regional services with KW.

The ignorance of the region is outstanding on this forum....

(Somewhat warranted)
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  #13  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2018, 6:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Acajack View Post
I think you mean the CSA.
Yeah, I always get confused the way they do it down there. Greater LA is about the same area as the GGH, though with about 2x the population lol.
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  #14  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2018, 6:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Tibor420 View Post
How so? They literally touch...

They are part of the same regional government.

They share multiple regional services with KW.

The ignorance of the region is outstanding on this forum....

(Somewhat warranted)
Think they will ever amalgamate the tri-cities?
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  #15  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2018, 7:00 PM
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With Ford at the controls who knows...

If it does, all 3 garbage names should be scrapped and just call it Grand River.
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  #16  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2018, 7:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Tibor420 View Post
How so? They literally touch...

They are part of the same regional government.

They share multiple regional services with KW.

The ignorance of the region is outstanding on this forum....

(Somewhat warranted)
It was a bit of a joking response, and also an acknowledgement that Guelph seems to be increasingly pulled into the tricity group as well.

I attended UWaterloo back in the 90's, and at the time, Cambridge was barely on the radar as far as the city went. 20 years later, and it's firmly part of the Tricity area.

Now, I'm increasingly hearing talk of KWCG; so if the Grand River city wants to become the 10th Million City in Canada, absorbing Guelph might legit be a way it can pump its numbers up, but it still feels a bit like 'cheating' to get there by swallowing the neighbour.
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Old Posted Sep 27, 2018, 7:22 PM
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The problem with those projections is that they are based on continuing the growth rates of 2011 to 2016. Things have changed drastically since then.

The population boom of the West has come to a halt with rising growth rates in Quebec and a doubling of the rate in Ontario. Ontario is now, by far, the fastest growing province in the country at 1.9% or 275,000 a year. Some of this is due to more immigration but much is due to the large declines in the West especially in SK & AB.......far fewer people are moving there and more are moving back. Ontario and Quebec cities are growing faster now than they have in decades as AB & SK have seen rising unemployment rates and BC housing prices are scarying people off especially in Vancouver which has become one of Canada's slowest growing metros. Canada's centres of population growth are world's away from what they were 5 years ago.
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Old Posted Sep 27, 2018, 7:24 PM
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It's impossible to predict how much Canadian cities will grow over the next 50 years. Predictions even done by professionals 50 years ago were so far off that in hindsight they were pointless.

One interesting observation though is that cities 2-9 have a big head start on Toronto under this scenario. There are a bunch of smaller cities below #9 and only one needs to hit 1 million before Toronto.

Then again, maybe something bad would happen to another top 9 city and 2 smaller cities would need to grow a lot more.

Another factor is that it will be harder for Toronto CMA to grow to the extent that new growth goes to Hamilton or Oshawa. The other CMAs can be expanded more easily.
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Old Posted Sep 27, 2018, 7:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taeolas View Post
Just the population of the Golden Horseshoe listed in the OP you get over 8 million; and I don't believe it includes Windsor or Guelph or Chatham or Niagara (possibly included in St cats?). It all depends on where you put the limits of the horseshoe; It may not be correct but I'd stretch it along the bulk of the SOON region from Windsor to Toronto and Niagara)

Even if you limit the horseshoe to K/W, that still puts it around 7.5M based on the OPs numbers, and may not include Guelph and Niagara.

Are Mississagua and Brampton included in the Toronto CMA?

So yeah, the Horseshoe will probably easily crack 10million within the decade or so.

Getting the 10th 1M city will be challenging for Cananda, but it will probably be in Ontario regardless, KWCG or London most likely.
Windsor is almost 4 hours away from the GTA and the Golden Horseshoe, it will never be a part of that region, even London is too far away to be lumped in with it.
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  #20  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2018, 7:27 PM
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Where does the southwestern end of the Toronto CMA finish? Mississauga? Oakville? I checked the Stats Can website a few times and have not been able to figure this out.
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