The Future of Canada and its regions....

[MonctonRad]

Every empire rises, plateaus and then falls. Look no further than Rome.

The costs of maintaining and defending an empire gradually become unsustainable. The citizens of the empire become less invested in forward progress. The barbarians start massing at the border and fears develop over unregulated immigration (huns, goths etc).

The West is in an era of decline at present.

The future belongs to south and east Asia.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

The barbarians start massing at the border and fears develop over unregulated immigration (huns, goths etc).

I dunno.. I don't think I would describe the Visigoth sack of Rome as unregulated immigration.

It's obviously true that every empire will fall. But why did Rome in its various incarnations last 1000 years or 2000 years instead of 100 years? It is very relevant to us today to consider whether the Western order will last another 10, 100, or 1000 years.

I don't view the earth as a bunch of empires that are all fighting for supremacy. I think there is a lot of cooperation (that was impossible before modern communication channels), that it is possible for everybody on earth to become better off than today, and that it mostly comes down to decisions which can be made one way or the other. I think humanity will be much better off in 2100 than it will be in 2000 even if the US is less able to dictate what everybody around the world must do, maybe partly because they will no longer be able to dictate.

I don't think the US is doing very well right now at the federal level but I don't have a fatalist view that it's on an unavoidable downward trajectory. I think there are specific political and economic problems that can still be fixed without Washington DC turning into an abandoned ruin or whatever the US empire falling situation is supposed to be.

[Chadillaccc]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Interesting that the two who have done provincial prediction who both live in Western provinces have such a dim view of Ontario.

I mean, I was born and raised in Ontario, only lived in the west (BC and AB) for 8 years. I plan on moving back to Ontario likely within the next few years. That is, unless I get a good job here after graduation. But I'd really like to be closer to my Grandma and nieces and nephews back in Ontario.

My opinion of Ontario was likely just informed by my upbringing of my whole family working in the auto industry, and the serious instability that comes with it. Glad to hear that it's likely the Ontario will continue to improve and diversify.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by someone123

I don't think the US is doing very well right now at the federal level but I don't have a fatalist view that it's on an unavoidable downward trajectory. I think there are specific political and economic problems that can still be fixed without Washington DC turning into an abandoned ruin or whatever the US empire falling situation is supposed to be.

I think English continuing to be the global lingua franca (which is what I forecast happening) will help the U.S. hold its own against China.

If you look at the other actors, especially the emerging ones, 1) India does business in English and dislikes China, 2) Africa speaks much more English than Mandarin; 3) the U.S. speaks more than enough Spanish to make good trade and relations easy with the South American emerging bloc; and 4) Europe will definitely prefer doing business in English over Mandarin.

Language is kind of a key thing in trade relationships - you have to understand people in order to deal with them. And on this point, China is disadvantaged on a global level.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by lio45

I think English continuing to be the global lingua franca (which is what I forecast happening) will help the U.S. hold its own against China.

I agree.

I also think there is a pattern of other countries asymptotically approaching Western development levels. People tend to freak out about this because they project the growth forward in a linear fashion, thereby enormously overestimating its potential.

For example China might grow by 9% a year while it is able to do so by moving villagers from turnip farms to factory towns that make consumer goods that are sold to Americans. This strategy might quickly get them from 10% to 40% of the level of development of the US but it is not going to get them to 300% of the US. Eventually the low hanging fruit will be gone and gains will move at the slower rate of technological development rather than at the rate of capital flight and financial wizardry. And over the long run the boom years will average out with busts to something much more modest. The places that grow by 9% some years tend to see some years of -9% too.

In the 80's lots of people seriously thought that Japan would overtake the US in economic output, and there was all kinds of speculation about the special character of Japanese workers and management and how Americans could not compete with this magic voodoo. Japan is growing at an average rate now (corrected for population growth, which people often forget about).

In a decade or two Americans will pick a new rapidly improving poor country to freak out about.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by someone123

For example China might grow by 9% a year while it is able to do so by moving villagers from turnip farms to factory towns that make consumer goods that are sold to Americans. This strategy might quickly get them from 10% to 40% of the level of development of the US but it is not going to get them to 300% of the US. Eventually the low hanging fruit will be gone and gains will move at the slower rate of technological development rather than at the rate of capital flight and financial wizardry. And over the long run the boom years will average out with busts to something much more modest. The places that grow by 9% some years tend to see some years of -9% too.

There's a really good NYT piece on China and its economy and direction from today:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ina-rules.html

[lio45]

Plus, based on my own extended compound growth projections which have Okotoks, AB overtaking both Shanghai and Beijing in a number of centuries, I'm forecasting China won't even be a powerhouse worth worrying about when compared to Alberta.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by lio45

Plus, based on my own extended compound growth projections which have Okotoks, AB overtaking both Shanghai and Beijing in a number of centuries, I'm forecasting China won't even be a powerhouse worth worrying about when compared to Alberta.

Just make a chart that is "population in Okotoks" vs "population not in Okotoks". Okotoks is growing faster than the global average so by the law of inevitable linear growth it will take a tiny fraction of human history for all of humanity to end up in Okotoks. When that happens I assume we will hit some kind of dynamism singularity and move on to a higher plane where everybody is pure energy and communicates only in upbeat corporate jargon.

[Pinus]

Isn't Airdrie the new Okotoks now?

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Pinus

Isn't Airdrie the new Okotoks now?

Nah - Okotoks Uber Alles!

Never forget - there are a number of things to do in Okotoks...........

[wave46]

Originally Posted by someone123

In the 80's lots of people seriously thought that Japan would overtake the US in economic output, and there was all kinds of speculation about the special character of Japanese workers and management and how Americans could not compete with this magic voodoo. Japan is growing at an average rate now (corrected for population growth, which people often forget about).

Our path in the West may mirror Japan's - but not to the same extent due to demographics. We have an aging society and the economic gains of the past will be harder to repeat as our population growth rate decreases. We also haven't arrived at Japan-like debt problems, but there's a worrying trend in that direction.

China is a unique case. It has embraced a lot of what works in the West (capitalism vs. communism) and has had buy-in from its population due to explosive economic growth and relatively homogeneous population without the government having to give up its power.

How long this lasts is a good question - people in democracies can vent their frustrations with the political system by replacing a government. As long as the tide is rising, the government of China looks smart. What it does when the chips are down is the real question. President Xi just made himself leader for as long as he wants. Will he follow Brezhnev's mould in the Soviet Union? The population of China looks to peak in the next few decades. What will that mean?

Coming back to Canada, in the final analysis, I believe that Canada will get past the demographic issue of the baby boom. Indeed, our immigration level has moderated our lack of fertility - we won't see anywhere near the dependency ratio of other nations like Japan. We may re-examine our views of 'retirement' and what that means - sitting around for 20-30 years of your life playing golf might not be what 'retirement' will be in the future. Maybe we'll see nuclear families become extended families once again as parents move in with their adult children. Who knows?

I feel that Canada will be a very fortunate place to ride out the 21st century, despite its potential problems.

[vid]

Today I learned that Northern Ontario doesn't matter and government support for solving this region's problems is anti-democratic so we're joining Russia now. Byeeee!

[lio45]

Originally Posted by vid

Today I learned that Northern Ontario doesn't matter and government support for solving this region's problems is anti-democratic so we're joining Russia now. Byeeee!

That's a really warped interpretation of my comments.

~95% of Ontarians are 'Southerners', so yeah, if want to call having ~5% importance in the grand scheme of things "not mattering", it's actually not that invalid an approximation. Similarly, on a Canadian level, PEI "doesn't matter".

[vid]

Originally Posted by lio45

That's a really warped interpretation of my comments.

~95% of Ontarians are 'Southerners', so yeah, if want to call having ~5% importance in the grand scheme of things "not mattering", it's actually not that invalid an approximation. Similarly, on a Canadian level, PEI "doesn't matter".

In our other discussion, we're arguing about whether or not it is democratic to have an agency use 0.008% of the province's budget to run programming that advocates for youth. You're arguing that using 0.008% of the province's budget is antidemocratic because half of its focus is in the north, which is a region that has disproportionate needs compared to the south (an aspect of the debate you either don't care about or don't understand) but the north only includes 5% of the provincial population (actually 6.5% but close enough) so it shouldn't count.

Northern Ontario and PEI might "not matter", but the government is still responsible for them.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by lio45

~95% of Ontarians are 'Southerners', so yeah, if want to call having ~5% importance in the grand scheme of things "not mattering", it's actually not that invalid an approximation. Similarly, on a Canadian level, PEI "doesn't matter".

This is true at a descriptive level but it's worth noting that PEI is a province so there is a lot they can do for themselves even if the rest of Canada doesn't think about them much or care about their concerns.

Note that PEI can also coordinate with other provinces if it wants, and this happens. Some of their services are provided in NB or NS but if they want or are able to run their own in the future they can.

Northern Ontario is one of the more politically disadvantaged areas because it is in such a large (and not super functional) province. It would be fairer for Northern Ontario to be its own province.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by someone123

This is true at a descriptive level but it's worth noting that PEI is a province so there is a lot they can do for themselves even if the rest of Canada doesn't think about them much or care about their concerns.

Note that PEI can also coordinate with other provinces if it wants, and this happens. Some of their services are provided in NB or NS but if they want or are able to run their own in the future they can.

Northern Ontario is one of the more politically disadvantaged areas because it is in such a large (and not super functional) province. It would be fairer for Northern Ontario to be its own province.

Very true. The main thing northern Ontario lacks is autonomy.

For example, PEI purchases most of their advanced health care in specialized centres in Halifax, Moncton and Saint John. The island government has the ability to choose the partnerships it wants in this regard, and does what is best for their own interests. On the other hand all the major decisions affecting northern Ontario are made by mandarins in Toronto who don't really give a shit.

I'm a big proponent of political devolution for northern Ontario, if not downright provincehood.........

[Dengler Avenue]

Speaking of that, why isn’t Andrea Horwath (ON NDP) saying anything about giving Northern Ontario some degree of autonomy? ON NDP almost swept the North in June.

[vid]

When Northerners need healthcare that isn't provided in a local hospital, we have access to the Northern Health Travel Grant, while will reimburse some of the costs of travel to access health care in the south or the other side of the north. The province has put a lot of money into cardiovascular services here so that we no longer have to travel to London anymore, but we could have traveled to Winnipeg for less cost in the first place. We have direct flights to Winnipeg, but we don't have direct flights to London. In emergencies, ORNGE would be chartered to fly a patient to another city located 50% further away than Winnipeg which in some cases has better facilities for the same treatment than the Ontario hospital we're being forced to go to. It makes no sense. But that's common in Canada, that our provincial borders are a bigger obstacle than they ought to be. Federal law allows us to get basic health care needs nationwide but it seems like treating the cancer of a Kenora resident in a city only 2 hours away is impossible for this province to wrap its head around.

And it's looking possible that under this government, the NHTG will be scaled back in some way.

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

On the other hand all the major decisions affecting northern Ontario are made by mandarins in Toronto who don't really give a shit.

Again, ?????????????????????????????????????????????

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

Speaking of that, why isn’t Andrea Horwath (ON NDP) saying anything about giving Northern Ontario some degree of autonomy? ON NDP almost swept the North in June.

She's another one of those Southern Mandarins I suppose?

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by vid

Again, ?????????????????????????????????????????????

She's another one of those Southern Mandarins I suppose?

Mandarin is a term that can refer to a civil servant.

[Dengler Avenue]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Mandarin is a term that can refer to a civil servant.

Thanks for the clarification. At first I was like, “Why are these 2 being so racist...”

If people in the north are truly fed up, they should get together and write to ON NDP to do something, but that’s Ontario politics from here on...