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  #1041  
Old Posted Aug 25, 2015, 2:52 PM
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Considering that 5 out of the 7 current development projects that Wanda is working on are outside of mainland China (London, Spain, two in Australia and of course, Chicago), I wouldn't be surprised if they are expanding internationally because they are fully aware and have been for a long time that their domestic market in mainland China is completely oversaturated and can reduce risk and potentially maximize profits overseas. China may be entering a long-overdue bear market, but that doesn't mean that Chinese companies will do nothing and wait it out until things stabilize (which may not happen for 10-15 years).

At this point, Chicago is probably one of the best-looking international markets for a Chinese company (relatively stable national economy, large market with international draw, far less expensive to erect a building here than on coastal US markets, highly cooperative local government entity that wants to help get a project like this going, etc), so I think BVic IS right and people really need to relax.
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  #1042  
Old Posted Aug 25, 2015, 3:26 PM
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Sentinel, you need to chill.
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  #1043  
Old Posted Aug 25, 2015, 3:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Notyrview View Post
Sounds like you need to chill out bro. At this stage in the game, I prefer be bearish to protect myself from another supertall fail.
Yes, because our have so much invested in the project.
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  #1044  
Old Posted Aug 25, 2015, 4:03 PM
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Sentinel, you need to chill.
You're probably right, Notyrview. Wanna meet for a drink later? It's only a 2-hour flight to Chicago
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  #1045  
Old Posted Aug 25, 2015, 5:50 PM
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Can people please stop hyperventilating about things they probably know nothing about. How about patience to see what happens. Wanda may go through the banks just like any other developer. I highly doubt they were just going to throw down $900,000,000 in cash for this project.

Chill the fuck out...
Whoa Chill BVic. This post was waaaay more dramatic than any of the posts leading up to it.
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  #1046  
Old Posted Aug 25, 2015, 6:55 PM
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He may have to wait to move his money..looks like he lost quite a bit of it..if this is the same guy...


"China's richest man lost $3.6 billion in a single day after global stock markets tanked and Chinese markets erased all their gains for the year.

Wang Jianlin, chairman and founder of property and entertainment company Dalian Wanda, lost more than 10 percent of his total wealth on Monday, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, which tracks the world's richest people."
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  #1047  
Old Posted Aug 25, 2015, 7:24 PM
Notyrview Notyrview is offline
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You're probably right, Notyrview. Wanna meet for a drink later? It's only a 2-hour flight to Chicago
Haha that sounds great, on the riverwalk, overlooking all the new towers. I would die.
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  #1048  
Old Posted Aug 25, 2015, 7:29 PM
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He may have to wait to move his money..looks like he lost quite a bit of it..if this is the same guy...


"China's richest man lost $3.6 billion in a single day after global stock markets tanked and Chinese markets erased all their gains for the year.

Wang Jianlin, chairman and founder of property and entertainment company Dalian Wanda, lost more than 10 percent of his total wealth on Monday, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, which tracks the world's richest people."
Quelle horreur. Earlier i was just kidding but now i'm sort of bummed. I hate the stock market. It doesn't make any sense. It's just all these emotional, rather aggressive, people panicking all the time. Let's just see if these maudlin creatures can get back to rationality and undo some of the damage so this tower's funding is secure.
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  #1049  
Old Posted Aug 25, 2015, 7:40 PM
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^^^ This is not the stock market, this is a wild speculative bubble driven by state sponsored easy credit targeted recklessly at retail investors who have never dabbled in the stock market before. The Chinese stock market just now gave back it's gains for the year. Think about that for a second, they just got back to where they were January 1st of this year. The market basically tripled in less than a year. Mr. Dailan has no less "money" than he started with at the beginning of 2015 and, if it were even a relevant factor (see below), that means the odds of this project getting done are no different than they were January 1st.

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While true, the only problem is, people or entities generally don't pull a lot of cash out of funds when they are way down.
People also don't fund skyscrapers by selling stock nor do billionaires fund the construction projects of companies they own by selling their own private assets. The price of stock in China has basically no effect on this project. In fact, the recent events in China have been heavily correlated with massive capital outflows from that country (after decades of huge inflows) which is exactly what this project represents.

If anything the way to look at this is that Vista Tower Chicago is causing the stock market in China to tank, not the other way around. Hundreds of simultaneous billion dollar projects to move money overseas tends to rapidly deflate domestic asset bubbles. People like Wang Dailan are no dummies and I'm sure he saw this coming a mile away (as did anyone who saw P/E ratios in China hitting the 100 mark) and probably was cashing in on this in the background somehow while continuing to funnel his assets out of the country as quickly as possible. I'm sure the gross mismanagement of this self inflicted economic wound by the Communist party has only further vindicated business leaders in China like Mr. Dailan in their attempts to diversify their companies and dilute China-linked risks.
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  #1050  
Old Posted Aug 25, 2015, 8:51 PM
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Ok that's fine, but what we're seeing in China is no more insane that what we've seen on Wall Street. Same recklessness, different players and strategies. What we really need is state-sponsored regulation of our own criminals. Aside from that, I hope you are correct, but I do think it's only natural and prudent to be a wee bearish at this point. I mean, this can't be good news for the development. I don't know why it's so scandalous to say so.

Edit: as you mentioned, it could be good news vis a vis flight capital.
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  #1051  
Old Posted Aug 25, 2015, 10:43 PM
LouisVanDerWright LouisVanDerWright is offline
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^^^ Actually, nothing like this Chinese bubble has ever happened in Western markets on this scale or this rapidly in modern economic history. There have multi year run ups like the 1920s or 1990s, but the Dow (for example, its a flawed measure) has never just uped and doubled in a matter of a couple months. What is happening in China is stupidity on a new, novel level. It has never happened in the US before because our government simply has never had the control necessary to force markets, if you can call Shanghai that, to move like that.

Case in point: prices start plummeting and they start a witch hunt against short sellers who are obviously the people who made the right call, the very people who should be rewarded.
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  #1052  
Old Posted Aug 25, 2015, 10:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Notyrview View Post
Ok that's fine, but what we're seeing in China is no more insane that what we've seen on Wall Street. Same recklessness, different players and strategies. What we really need is state-sponsored regulation of our own criminals. Aside from that, I hope you are correct, but I do think it's only natural and prudent to be a wee bearish at this point. I mean, this can't be good news for the development. I don't know why it's so scandalous to say so.

Edit: as you mentioned, it could be good news vis a vis flight capital.
I disagree. Right now more than ever such companies probably want to park their cash and assets in relatively mature and stable markets that may not have as high yield but also will not likely have as much turbulence as may be coming in their home or developing markets.
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  #1053  
Old Posted Aug 25, 2015, 11:22 PM
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Ok, but I think Wall Street has proven that American stability is a myth and non-nationals are keenly aware of that. This will become painfully more obvious as a lack of political will continues to erode the pillars of a healthy economy – education, transit, infrastructure, fair elections, adequate health care, sorry, the list goes on.
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  #1054  
Old Posted Aug 26, 2015, 12:41 AM
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That sounds like an overly cynical ideological post to my ears. Put up the track record of the US economy over the last 40 to 80 years versus any other major industrialized economy and it's a fair fight at the very least. I would take our"Great Recession" over the wild economic swings of developing nations that are beholden to commodity prices or state inefficiencies any day.

A few years ago people used to point and talk about Brazil, Russia, and Canada as places that were on the upswing and now look at each. These things are cyclical but for the long term the US economy has done very well and been very steady compared to much of the world. The mega-wealthy in this world have to park their cash and assets somewhere and when things get unpredictable in their home markets they usually like to park it where it is safe and dependable and believe it or not that is often United States. The uber rich from the Gulf, Russia, China and elsewhere don't park their money here because they are American philes as much as because they believe this is a place where they will see the most steady and dependable growth.
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  #1055  
Old Posted Aug 26, 2015, 12:43 AM
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^^To borrow your go-to response- "lawl." Cmon man. American stability is far from a myth. Assuming you live in America; look around you. This is the most prosperous nation on earth and has been consistently so for 120 years. Of course there will be corrections, but what happened after each and every dip? More prosperity. Long term, the trend is upward. It's called stability.

And by the way, there is an enormous amount of spending on the pillars you speak of. There could be more though. But where will that money come from? Let's start with entitlements.
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  #1056  
Old Posted Aug 26, 2015, 1:29 AM
LouisVanDerWright LouisVanDerWright is offline
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Someone needs to take a basic economics course or two. Of course American stability is a myth... In the short term. That's kinda the idea, trade unreasonable expectations of infinite growth for cyclical booms and busts with long term stablw growth. Over the decades, the stability is undeniable:

ritholtz.com

As this graph points out, US stocks have been above the 100 year trend since the early 1990s (ie since the end of the cold war and the dawn of globalization). American stability has probably been no better demonstrated than it has been over the last few years between the post recession recovery and shale boom in the face of market manipulation by our enemies and frienimies.
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  #1057  
Old Posted Aug 26, 2015, 2:25 AM
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This thread desperately needs to get back on topic.

If you post anything not directly related to the Wanda Vista project in chicago, it will be deleted from here on out.

if you guys want to continue discussing china's economy, please do so in the following thread: http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=217832
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Last edited by Steely Dan; Aug 26, 2015 at 5:03 PM.
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  #1058  
Old Posted Sep 8, 2015, 9:18 PM
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Public Event:

Wednesday, September 16th, 2015

Radisson Blu Aqua Hotel Pacific Ballroom

6pm-8pm

https://www.eventbrite.com/e/vista-r...ts-18234478817
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  #1059  
Old Posted Sep 8, 2015, 9:30 PM
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Sounds like a sales pitch. You won't leave without a time share.
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  #1060  
Old Posted Sep 8, 2015, 9:38 PM
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Minor activity on site today. Pickup truck and some red stuff. Might just be staging for work happening on Wacker.

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