Federal Government & Politics II

[samne]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Love JT playing dress-up and riding the pink unicorn........

I’m sure JT has a closet brimming with costumes yet to parade. He’s hoping to be around until 2025 to make use.

[MolsonExport]

Speaking of costumes, Halloween comes early for PPP:
https://twitter.com/PierrePoilievre/...728513/photo/3

(the point being, of course: who cares if politicians want to wear ethnic costumes to curry votes or for image purposes? Trudeau constantly gets pilloried on this site for doing just that, but Conservative politicians are just as apt to do so).

Pearl Clutching with Obama's Tan Suit!!

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

The model doesn't reflect local candidate's start power at least not between elections so that is assuming a uniform movement across Ontario.

I'd say this is definitely true for most ridings in the country at the moment.

In the case of Timmins-James Bay Gaétan Malette may be a good choice in that the Tories are generally the least favourite choice of francophones (they make up 40% or so of the riding). Francophones in Ontario typically vote as a kind of bloc, usually for the Liberals, occasionally for the NPD but rarely for the Tories.

A high-profile francophone candidate like Malette plus cross-Canada ascendency for the CPC sounds like a winning proposition for them in that riding at least.

[Marty_Mcfly]

This weeks Nanos now has CPC +16 nationally.

Interesting data points:
- Greens tied with NDP in Atlantic Canada for 3rd place.
- PPC tied with Liberals on the Prairies for 3rd place.
- NDP at 19% in Quebec???

[1overcosc]

https://338canada.com/35044e.htm
338 is now saying that Kingston and Ottawa South , and Guelph, 3 ridings that the LPC won even in the 2011 meltdown, are tossups.

In Kingston the riding border will change to friendlier to the CPC in 2024 - the rural north end of the city which is more CPC than the rest of the city will be shifting into the Kingston riding. So if the riding is a tossup now, post redistribution it could be a narrow CPC lead.

I never imagined that my riding could be anything but a safe Liberal seat. And certainly not a Conservative one.

I wonder if the CPC nomination will attract someone high profile given its not a guaranteed loss anymore.

[Acajack]

Ottawa South is an extremely strong Liberal riding. If it has the potential to flip to the CPC this is a sign of Poilievre making an impact with "new Canadians" as they are a huge part of the Liberal base there.

For all of the talk about the "freedom" convoy being racist I observed that it in fact resonated with a lot of people of immigrant origin in the Ottawa area, notably with Lebanese Canadians who are highly concentrated in Ottawa South.

Lebanese Canadians are also quite prominent among the people demonstrating about the whole gender ideology issue.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

I wonder if the CPC nomination will attract someone high profile given its not a guaranteed loss anymore.

It is actually a good thing that the Liberal collapse is happening now, rather than later after nominations have been completed. If quality potential Conservative candidates see that they might in fact have a chance, they will be more likely to toss their hat into the ring.

Right now the Tory bench is pretty thin. We need more quality high profile candidates and fewer yee-haw rednecks. The possibility of a quality slate of candidates for the Conservatives still exists.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

https://338canada.com/35044e.htm
338 is now saying that Kingston and Ottawa South , and Guelph, 3 ridings that the LPC won even in the 2011 meltdown, are tossups.

In Kingston the riding border will change to friendlier to the CPC in 2024 - the rural north end of the city which is more CPC than the rest of the city will be shifting into the Kingston riding. So if the riding is a tossup now, post redistribution it could be a narrow CPC lead.

I never imagined that my riding could be anything but a safe Liberal seat. And certainly not a Conservative one.

I wonder if the CPC nomination will attract someone high profile given its not a guaranteed loss anymore.

Even with current polls the Liberals are ahead of 2011 and the Cons are at about the same level. Certainly the Cons could win one of those three and equally lose a riding somewhere else as swings are rarely uniform but a sweep of those would need even bigger Conservative lead. Guelph is interesting as Libs won by a lot in 2011 after a close win in 2008 so I assume the MP was popular.

[1overcosc]

It's notable that Ontario, at least in the 338 projections, is a tale of two provinces.

Within the GTA, the LPC is doing alright; they're still comfortably ahead in more than half the 416 and they're holding onto to much of Brampton and Mississauga. The CPC is actually underperforming their 2011 result in the GTA.

But outside of the GTA, the CPC is approaching Mulroney 1984 levels of landslide. Ottawa-Vanier is the only seat left in the whole province outside of the GTA where the Liberals are leading by more than a tossup. And the NDP only has a handful. It's an almost total blue sweep that blows Harper's majority out of the water. Some of the seats in Northern Ontario with CPC leads have literally never gone CPC, ever. CPC leads Sudbury right now, but the Sudbury area has never elected a Conservative MP even going all the way back to 1867.

On a nationwide basis, the CPC is actually projected to have a stronger/bigger majority than 2011 but with fewer seats in the GTA and only 6 in the City of Toronto.. because they're far surpassing Harper in Atlantic Canada and rural/small city Ontario.

Compared to the last CPC majority, this one will be much more of a government of the regions and much less of a government of the suburbs. Everyone expecting Pollievre to govern just like Harper did might be in for a shock.

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Ottawa South is an extremely strong Liberal riding. If it has the potential to flip to the CPC this is a sign of Poilievre making an impact with "new Canadians" as they are a huge part of the Liberal base there.

If the Liberals lose the ethnic vote, then they just have "the money" - which has power, for sure, but doesn't amount to many votes.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

If the Liberals lose the ethnic vote, then they just have "the money" - which has power, for sure, but doesn't amount to many votes.

This is perhaps the first time in history this phrase has been referenced for cross-Canada politics, but I don't think you're wrong to use it.

Though I'd say that Bay St. money while generally parked with the Natural Governing Party, is always ready to instantly shift to the Tories if it senses that that's where the chips will fall.

They did it for Harper and they did it for Mulroney too.

People in Toronto may in fact be meeting to discuss this as we speak!

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Speaking of costumes, Halloween comes early for PPP:
https://twitter.com/PierrePoilievre/...728513/photo/3

(the point being, of course: who cares if politicians want to wear ethnic costumes to curry votes or for image purposes? Trudeau constantly gets pilloried on this site for doing just that, but Conservative politicians are just as apt to do so).

Pearl Clutching with Obama's Tan Suit!!

Was it the wearing or costumes that was being criticized or the wearing of costumes completely out of context of the event? (That’s not a rhetorical question, so am not sure). I recall on the India trip he would show up at business functions where the Indian guests were wearing suits while wearing a wedding costume.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Was it the wearing or costumes that was being criticized or the wearing of costumes completely out of context of the event? (That’s not a rhetorical question, so am not sure). I recall on the India trip he would show up at business functions where the Indian guests were wearing suits while wearing a wedding costume.

If Modi came to Canada and wore a Northern Ontario dinner jacket people here would love it.

[Rollerstud98]

The fucks a northern Ontario dinner jacket?

[shreddog]

Originally Posted by Rollerstud98

The fucks a northern Ontario dinner jacket?

Always red ...

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I'd say this is definitely true for most ridings in the country at the moment.

In the case of Timmins-James Bay Gaétan Malette may be a good choice in that the Tories are generally the least favourite choice of francophones (they make up 40% or so of the riding). Francophones in Ontario typically vote as a kind of bloc, usually for the Liberals, occasionally for the NPD but rarely for the Tories.

A high-profile francophone candidate like Malette plus cross-Canada ascendency for the CPC sounds like a winning proposition for them in that riding at least.

You are generally correct about the francophone vote here. The only time I think it went conservative here was in 1984 when Mulroney became PM and Aurèle Gervais became our MP. It was pretty much a 3-way split among the three main candidates and Gervais came out on top. It certainly helped that both the PC leader and the riding candidate could speak fluent French and appeal to francophones. I don't think we've had a francophone PC or CPC candidate since until Gaétan Malette won the nomination last week.

The CPC is hoping for the same sort of success as the Ontario PCs had in Timmins although the federal riding is quite different in many aspects but there is likely enough appetite for change that Malette is most likely to win under current conditions.

[casper]

It looks like Trudeau is getting in on the act and now also inventing silly names.

Little clip of PP making unfounded and silly claims about how food processors are removing nutritional value from food due to the carbon tax. (You can't make this nonsense up).

JT points out that this is PP is conflating the issue as he attempts to confuse Canadians.

https://twitter.com/PierrePoilievre/...72770079211911

-----

On a different note, the press in India is reporting that when/if PP becomes PM he would move to restore relationships with India. They claim PP said that Canada has major disputes with almost every major power in the world. He suggests he is going to fix that. I don't trust him on that one.

https://www.indiatoday.in/world/stor...204-2023-10-24

[ssiguy]

That 338 map is nothing but horrifying for the Liberals. It shows that between Milton and the Fraser River at Surrey, the Liberals will get only 4 seats and they are all in Winnipeg. No KW/Ham/Nia/Lon/Wind/Sud/Reg/Sask/Edm/Cal and they are losing ground in Greater Vancouver, Ottawa, and the 905. In other words, PP is eating into the bastions of Liberal support........urban voters. Quite unlike his 2 predecessors, he is not just preaching to the converted.

Liberals have always relied on urbanites to see them thru and Trudeau couldn't have made a bigger mess of our urban standard of living if he tried. His wide open immigration policy and the devastating effects it has had on our housing markets, both rental & real estate, is obvious for all to see with our massive tent cities, homeless, and working people having to use Food Banks because of their soaring housing costs.

How Trudeau and the Party brass could have made such stupid political decisions in regards to immigration and housing truly boggles the mind and they are going to pay for it dearly.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Loco101

If Modi came to Canada and wore a Northern Ontario dinner jacket people here would love it.

Would they laugh with him or at him, if that is what he wore to a black tie reception? That's the equivalent of what Trudeau did.

Indians were broadly bemused by his choice of dress. Indians understand pandering to their diaspora at home. But nobody there expects foreign leaders to wear their ethnic clothing when visiting. Least of all in a manner completely out of context. And the only time one really sees the sort of Sherwanis Trudeau wore is at a wedding. And he wasn't the worst of it. Arguably, his wife's outfit was worse. She was even closer to actual bridal clothing. To Indians this isn't just bemusing, it's borderline patronizing. "Oh look those white folks are playing dress up with our clothes again."

[Marty_Mcfly]

Pallas Data dropped a poll this morning with a CPC +16 national lead. The more interesting thing though is that they have a three way tie between the LPC/BQ/CPC in Quebec.