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  #1  
Old Posted Jul 8, 2009, 2:22 AM
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Capital City Growth

Here is a run through current population projections. I was inspired to do this when I was reading through previous posts. I kind of got the impression that people were expecting Brisbane to outgrow Sydney and Melbourne which I do not beleive to be the case.

Between 2006-2007, the two cities with the highest percentage growth rates were Darwin and Perth - 2.6% and 2.3% respectively. [1]

However, growth rates can be deceiving. Between 2006-2007, the two cities with the largest population growth in terms of numbers were Melbourne and Sydney - 61,700 and 52,000 respectively. [2]

In relation to any capital city outgrowing another, this is not likely based on ABS projections up until 2056. The only projection of any city outgrowing another was Melbourne outgrowing Sydney by a very small number. In this particular projection the populations of the major capital cities in 2056 would be:
Melbourne - close to 8 million
Sydney - 7.6 million
Brisbane - close to 5 million
Perth - 4.2 million
Adelaide - 1.8 million [3]

I would also like to mention, current population growth rates in Melbourne, according to leading real estate companies who like to project future household demand, have advised Melbourne is now growing by 70,000 annually. [4] This is going to mean a lot of planning is going to be required to house such a large influx of people. I don't know if anyone has been to Melbourne in the last few years but you eventually become used to all the cranes that line the skyline not just in the CBD, but in activity centres located throughout metropolitan Melbourne. It's really exciting to see my hometown grow so fast.
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Old Posted Jul 11, 2009, 6:19 PM
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Not to start a row or anything, about fifteen years ago, I spent about a week in Sydney and about a week in Melbourne.

I personally thought that Melbourne was head-and-shoulders above Sydney even at that time. No, not in terms of evident population, but simply as a city.
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Old Posted Jul 17, 2009, 1:53 PM
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You really should have a look at this very cool interactive map of the worlds population centres (all 476 of them above 1M.) http://www.citypopulation.de/world/Agglomerations.html

I have pulled some figures from this source for a new perspective.

The site ranks all Principal Agglomerations of the world exceeding 1M people. We have 2 in the Top 100. China has 16, the USA has 14, India has 9, Brazil has 7, Japan has 3.

Here are our cities according to them as at 01/01/2009.

Quote:
Rank............City...............Pop Est 2008
77 ............ Sydney ............. 4,400,000
92 ............ Melbourne .......... 3,900,000
227 .......... Brisbane ............. 1,920,000
282 .......... Perth ................. 1,600,000
400 .......... Adelaide ............. 1,170,000
BTW, it is silly to suggest that any city in Aus will overtake another within 50 years. The growth rates of each respective city are not big enough to change the order.
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Old Posted Jul 25, 2009, 8:02 AM
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Originally Posted by MyFavco View Post
You really should have a look at this very cool interactive map of the worlds population centres (all 476 of them above 1M.) http://www.citypopulation.de/world/Agglomerations.html

I have pulled some figures from this source for a new perspective.

The site ranks all Principal Agglomerations of the world exceeding 1M people. We have 2 in the Top 100. China has 16, the USA has 14, India has 9, Brazil has 7, Japan has 3.

Here are our cities according to them as at 01/01/2009.



BTW, it is silly to suggest that any city in Aus will overtake another within 50 years. The growth rates of each respective city are not big enough to change the order.
I got my data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics which I believe is a reputable source. As I stated, it is unlikely that any city will overtake another city however in one of the three population projections Melbourne was predicted to overtake Sydney by 2056. While it is highly unlikely, it is possible.

If the Victorian government continues their economic strategic strategies I do not see any reason why this particular projection will not be a reality down the track.
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Old Posted Jul 26, 2009, 9:22 AM
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Growth rates of Australian Cities (not towns or regional areas) have historically been between 1.0 and 3.0%. That is a narrow band, and it is highly unlikely to change. Growth rates of our capitals are actually fairly steady and consistent.

The ABS makes futue population estimates using upper, middle and lower projections. Melbourne has had fantastic growth over the last three years, but who is to say that it will stay at the upper limit for ever? Like all things in life, these calculations always come back to the average.

For Melb to overtake Sydney, the growth rate required has to be consistently above the historical average. Also, Sydney would have to grow well below its average, peremantley.

The laws of probabilities tells us that this wont happen.

So, while 'one city overtaking another' makes for great reading, and this story is printed in each respective cities local rag every now and then, it is actually all a lot of fiction.
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Old Posted Jul 26, 2009, 11:24 AM
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Originally Posted by MyFavco View Post
Growth rates of Australian Cities (not towns or regional areas) have historically been between 1.0 and 3.0%. That is a narrow band, and it is highly unlikely to change. Growth rates of our capitals are actually fairly steady and consistent.

The ABS makes futue population estimates using upper, middle and lower projections. Melbourne has had fantastic growth over the last three years, but who is to say that it will stay at the upper limit for ever? Like all things in life, these calculations always come back to the average.

For Melb to overtake Sydney, the growth rate required has to be consistently above the historical average. Also, Sydney would have to grow well below its average, peremantley.

The laws of probabilities tells us that this wont happen.

So, while 'one city overtaking another' makes for great reading, and this story is printed in each respective cities local rag every now and then, it is actually all a lot of fiction.
Well I guess time will tell. But I do agree with you that projections are not something which should be taken as Gospel however they do give one a good idea about how particular cities are currently fairing.

I am concerned that you misunderstood the emphasis of my post which was "in relation to any capital city outgrowing another.... not likely based on ABS projections up until 2056". Particular emphasis was on Brisbane not being close to overtaking Melbourne in the near or distant future. I thought it would be interesting to note the one projection where any city was projected to overtake another because it did not involve Brisbane - further adding to my original intention.
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Old Posted Aug 17, 2009, 11:58 AM
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There will probably be a few changes in the ranking of cities in the 100,000-500,000 range in the next 20 years though.
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Old Posted Jan 23, 2010, 11:33 AM
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Melbourne overtaking Sydney could easily happen.
Canada and Australia have many things in common no matter how counter-intuitive it may seem. One of the things they had in common for a long time was two large urban centers in the south-eastern regions. In Canada , Montreal was Canada's dominant city for almost all of the country's history. 100 years ago , had somebody suggested Toronto would outgrow Montreal , that person would have been laughed at. Now , not only is Toronto bigger than Montreal , it's almost doubly so. Depending on how you want to count it , it's more than twice the size of Montreal actually (although that's using a very large and otherwise impractical definition of Toronto's urban boundary) In 50 years Toronto shot up way past Montreal and is now on track to becoming a tier 1 city (although that's a very long way off if it ever happens at all)

In any case , the point is that both countries have similar populations , similar dispersal of population , and similar ...well everything but weather. If it could happen in Canada (whatever the reasons may have been) there's no good reason to assume it couldn't happen in Australia. Don't forget the principle of compounded interest : If the growth percentages stay the same , the actual number of people grows every year.
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Old Posted May 13, 2011, 7:22 AM
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Much of the country's strongest population growth continued to be concentrated in capital cities. The combined population of Australian capital cities increased by 257,800 people and accounted for over two-thirds of Australia's population growth.

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