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  #61  
Old Posted Jun 10, 2015, 11:01 AM
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So the NDP surged at the expense of the Liberals and Tories according to CRA's most recent poll. Liberals are down to 50%, PCs at 27% and the NDP are up to 22%. Interesting few months ahead.
Is this another one of those polls that sample about 0.05% of the population and is accurate to within 5 percentage points, 95% of the time?
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  #62  
Old Posted Jun 10, 2015, 12:40 PM
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Is this another one of those polls that sample about 0.05% of the population and is accurate to within 5 percentage points, 95% of the time?
To be fair though, all polls use the same methodology. Most people think a small portion being sampled is not representative, but that's not actually the case. If the sample is selected properly you don't need a large number for it to be representative. Albeit, the bigger the sample the higher it's precision (i.e. improves the margin of error)
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  #63  
Old Posted Jun 10, 2015, 12:44 PM
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I've been wondering how / if pollsters have adapted to the new realities of communications where more and more people don't have a land-line, have call-display and so don't answer pollsters, or treat pollsters as a joke just like they do internet comment sites (sort of like keyboard bravado).

So, how much accuracy is there really in polls? Do the people who pollsters catch, actually vote?

What does satisfaction with Government mean anyway? What are people's expectations from Government? I suspect many people think Government is a cash-cow and how can I get my share ( and sometimes your share as well).
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  #64  
Old Posted Jun 10, 2015, 1:12 PM
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I've been wondering how / if pollsters have adapted to the new realities of communications where more and more people don't have a land-line, have call-display and so don't answer pollsters, or treat pollsters as a joke just like they do internet comment sites (sort of like keyboard bravado).

So, how much accuracy is there really in polls? Do the people who pollsters catch, actually vote?

What does satisfaction with Government mean anyway? What are people's expectations from Government? I suspect many people think Government is a cash-cow and how can I get my share ( and sometimes your share as well).
It's definitely not an easy task, that's for sure. Ultimately this is a line of business and I think if polls were very inaccurate these organizations would probably not exist.

Accuracy of polls can be a relative measure too. The degree of accuracy may not be extremely tight, but it does give (in this case) political parties vital information for campaigning purposes. But if the information is completely out to lunch then it's useless and were back to what I touched on above.
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  #65  
Old Posted Jun 10, 2015, 1:19 PM
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CRA has always been fairly accurate with their polls. They did pretty well in PEI recently, New Brunswick last year and NL in 2011.
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  #66  
Old Posted Jun 10, 2015, 1:41 PM
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CRA has always been fairly accurate with their polls. They did pretty well in PEI recently, New Brunswick last year and NL in 2011.
Exactly, there's the historical trend as well. They've always been accurate in the past so that's reason to believe this poll should be accurate.
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  #67  
Old Posted Jun 10, 2015, 1:49 PM
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The landline folks are the ones most likely to vote anyway so meh.
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Note to self: "The plural of anecdote is not evidence."
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  #68  
Old Posted Jun 10, 2015, 2:04 PM
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The landline folks are the ones most likely to vote anyway so meh.
Occam's razor.
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  #69  
Old Posted Jun 16, 2015, 1:58 PM
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Earle McCurdy just announced he's running in St. John's West, which likely means he'll face off against Dan Crummell and Siobhan Coady.
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  #70  
Old Posted Jun 16, 2015, 5:30 PM
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Earle McCurdy just announced he's running in St. John's West, which likely means he'll face off against Dan Crummell and Siobhan Coady.
...which means he will probably lose to Siobhan Coady.
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  #71  
Old Posted Jun 16, 2015, 6:06 PM
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...which means he will probably lose to Siobhan Coady.
Or they'll both lose to Dan Crummell.
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  #72  
Old Posted Jun 18, 2015, 12:21 PM
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Lorraine Michael will face off against Paul Antle in St. John's Quidi-Vidi.
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  #73  
Old Posted Jun 18, 2015, 7:06 PM
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Lorraine Michael will face off against Paul Antle in St. John's Quidi-Vidi.
That could turn out to be interesting. No doubt there is solid NDP support in the district but is there soft NDP support that might lean towards the center. Pity the PC candidate.
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  #74  
Old Posted Jun 22, 2015, 1:58 PM
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George Murphy announces he will not run again. Should make Virginia Waters-Pleaseantville an interesting race with no incumbent.
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  #75  
Old Posted Jun 23, 2015, 11:33 AM
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George Murphy announces he will not run again. Should make Virginia Waters-Pleaseantville an interesting race with no incumbent.
I must say, I was surprised to hear that George Murphy will not run this upcoming election. Is Cathy Bennett running in Virginia Waters-Pleasantville? It'll be a interesting race for sure.
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  #76  
Old Posted Jun 23, 2015, 11:42 AM
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I must say, I was surprised to hear that George Murphy will not run this upcoming election. Is Cathy Bennett running in Virginia Waters-Pleasantville? It'll be a interesting race for sure.
No she opted for Windsor Lake.
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