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  #61  
Old Posted Mar 7, 2014, 4:26 PM
mhays mhays is offline
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Alki, I wish you'd read instead of imagining (incorrectly) what I'm thinking.

Yes new construction tends to be expensive. But the places people are moving OUT of tend to get cheaper. Rents in those places have risen because we haven't been building enough units. But lately rents are flattening because completions are finally keeping up.

Newspaper comment sections go nuts over everything. Read one about the next school bond issue....hate everywhere, but the bond will pass 70%. And it's not terribly relevant to the project, which will probably get built and will rent just fine because there's demand.

Four packs don't belong everywhere. But I'd expand the allowable areas somewhat beyond the current urban villages.

What was your source for the "mostly families" point?
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  #62  
Old Posted Mar 8, 2014, 7:41 PM
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Originally Posted by mhays View Post
Alki, I wish you'd read instead of imagining (incorrectly) what I'm thinking.
Look.......you have been telegraphing very clearly your position on these issues ever since I started posting on this forum.

Quote:
Yes new construction tends to be expensive. But the places people are moving OUT of tend to get cheaper. Rents in those places have risen because we haven't been building enough units. But lately rents are flattening because completions are finally keeping up.
They only get cheaper if the markets are overbuilt. In a hot market like the one we have now, the rents get more expensive even in the older bldgs. Most every landlord in this city is raising rents; that's why Seattle rents are going up faster than most other cities, meaning that its not just new construction that is culpable.......there are not enough new units going up to increase the average rents like we are seeing.

Quote:
Newspaper comment sections go nuts over everything. Read one about the next school bond issue....hate everywhere, but the bond will pass 70%. And it's not terribly relevant to the project, which will probably get built and will rent just fine because there's demand.
Typically, in the past, when new projects sans parking spaces were proposed in W. Seattle, there would be a few comments and they would be mixed.......some in favor, some opposed. These days most everyone is opposed and the number commenting has quintupled.....at least. Litigation is soon to follow.

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Four packs don't belong everywhere. But I'd expand the allowable areas somewhat beyond the current urban villages.
Of course you would........but I expect in the near future there will be a contraction of Seattle zoning laws rather than an expansion.

It appears that planners not only overreached 3 1/2 years ago when they rewrote some of the city's zoning laws but apparently, at least some of the new zoning was badly written if a recent article in Curbed Seattle is to be believed. It seems that blders are allowed to build from property line to property line in certain instances without any caveats. That means there will only be 10 inches of separation between a new development in Ballard and the single family home next door. The owners of the home are talking litigation.

One of the reason why the new law creating council districts passed last November is because council members at large were ducking issues like this one. That will change now.

Quote:
What was your source for the "mostly families" point?
Its mostly anecdotal. I have lived in 4 different single family neighborhoods in W. Seattle and the vast majority of homes were occupied by families. Full disclosure: I consider a couple and a single parent with children families. That's a pretty standard understanding but just in case it isn't I am noting it here.
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  #63  
Old Posted Mar 8, 2014, 9:51 PM
mhays mhays is offline
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Finally you admit that I didn't say those things, and that you were guessing about families being in the majority.

As for rents on older apartments, overbuilding makes them a lot cheaper but just keeping up (2014, not 2012-2013) also plays an essential role -- let them stay reasonable. Seattle's $1,000 apartment from the 1960s or $700 accessory apartment costs $3,000 or $2,000 in San Francisco because they fell way behind.

We won't ever be a cheap city. That only happens when demand plummets, like a city hollowing out. But we'll avoid the big increases that nimbyism would bring.
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  #64  
Old Posted Mar 12, 2014, 5:50 AM
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Finally you admit that I didn't say those things, and that you were guessing about families being in the majority.
Excuse me but to what do you think I am admitting? You are a proponent of very high density........I believe you once posted you like density levels of 70-80k per sq mile....which would be Manhattan densities. Bring that up with the average Seattlite and they will look at you in horror. You have claimed that high construction/increased density will keep housing in Seattle affordable when the very opposite is happening. You actually believe that apodments and new apts without parking will result in lots of pedestrians; that these renters don't own cars. Of course you have yet to show any kind of factual study that supports your position.

That's what I have been talking about........and I am not about to admit that you didn't post those things in the past.

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As for rents on older apartments, overbuilding makes them a lot cheaper but just keeping up (2014, not 2012-2013) also plays an essential role -- let them stay reasonable.
Seattle rents are not staying reasonable......not so long as the vacancy rate stays under 5%:

10 cities where rents are rising the most

http://realestate.msn.com/10-cities-...ising-the-most

And I repeat.....its not just because of the new construction..........all types of units, old and new, are seeing sizable rent increases.

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Seattle's $1,000 apartment from the 1960s or $700 accessory apartment costs $3,000 or $2,000 in San Francisco because they fell way behind.
SF is an expensive city for a whole host of reasons not least of which it is considered to be N. America's most beautiful city, has a great climate, has a growing employment base and has very little land on which to build.

And comparing Seattle to SF is comparing apples with oranges.....literally.

But putting that aside, please explain to me how building more units will lead to cheaper rents if demand remains high? Why would landlords reduce their rents or not raise them if there were people willing to pay higher rents?

Quote:
We won't ever be a cheap city. That only happens when demand plummets, like a city hollowing out. .
Dallas is growing faster than Seattle and yet its a much cheaper city. Why?

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But we'll avoid the big increases that nimbyism would bring
Once again, nimbyism has little to do with why a city's housing is expensive. Sure if the entire metro area decided tomorrow to stop all housing construction and if industry continued to grow as it has the past few years, housing prices would skyrocket. And if that level nimbyism were to happen, market factors would come into play that would significantly alter the current economic dynamics found in Seattle.

Conversely, if you zoned all of Seattle multifamily and gave developers free rein, rents would stall out or decline if there was more units produced than demand required. However, shortly after signs of overbuilding began popping up, the banks would cut off the lending spigot. Construction would stop until the vacancy rate came back down. And once the excess units got absorbed, construction would start back up and the rents would resume their climb.

Nimbyism and liberal zoning policies only effect things short term/temporarily. There are other more important factors in play that effect housing prices long term.

In fact, I believe the whole reason for tying nimbyism with expensive housing is so that its creators can realize the hi rise fantasy they envision for Seattle. The sooner this fallacy gets debunked the better off Seattle will be.
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  #65  
Old Posted Mar 12, 2014, 6:08 AM
mhays mhays is offline
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Where did I say anything about wanting West Seattle to be much denser than it is? I said I like neighborhoods like that, and yes Seattle ought to have some (and some areas are heading that way) but I wouldn't expect it outside of core districts, if any.

I've said I like ice cream too. Does that mean I want to pave West Seattle with ice cream shops? I'm sure you could invent something.

You're again making no sense on rents. You admit that vacancy rates rise when vacancies are too low. So how do we address that? How about keeping supply ahead of demand? Anyone who's paying attention knows that Seattle construction wasn't keeping up in recent years, and is only now starting to.

Why is Dallas cheap? Cheap land, cheap construction types, not being in a seismic zone, less accommodation for nimbys...

Are you going to keep arguing both sides without realizing it?
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  #66  
Old Posted Mar 12, 2014, 6:24 AM
mhays mhays is offline
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PS, nimbys like you conspire to increase housing costs in a lot of ways. Your personal mission seems to be to require parking that residents don't want, rather than letting the market decide. As a result some housing wouldn't pencil at all and wouldn't get built, while some that would get built would be more expensive as a result.

Is your motive to keep the poor folks out? Or is it to keep rents high?
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  #67  
Old Posted Mar 12, 2014, 6:11 PM
alki alki is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mhays View Post
PS, nimbys like you conspire to increase housing costs in a lot of ways. Your personal mission seems to be to require parking that residents don't want, rather than letting the market decide. As a result some housing wouldn't pencil at all and wouldn't get built, while some that would get built would be more expensive as a result.

Is your motive to keep the poor folks out? Or is it to keep rents high?
SMH. I understand.........you really don't want to hear what I have to say and what a lot of other people are saying. And you don't want to know what the facts are. Well that can work for only so long. In the meantime, opposition is growing to at least some of the development happening in Seattle and that's prompting ideologues on the other side of the equation to rear their ugly heads:

https://news.google.com/news?pz=1&cf...&ar=1394647726

And no, I don't agree with this group's conclusions.

And then there is the blanket robocall I got Monday opposing a development in West Seattle and asking me to call Tom Rasmussen. This is only the beginning.
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  #68  
Old Posted Mar 12, 2014, 6:58 PM
mhays mhays is offline
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We could talk in circles more, but I'll just refer to my other posts, again, and leave it at that.
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  #69  
Old Posted Mar 21, 2014, 3:54 AM
alki alki is offline
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This one broke ground today; like the windows a lot:

REO Flats Mixing Old Seattle Style & New Green Standards

Wednesday, February 13, 2013, by Sean Keeley



http://seattle.curbed.com/archives/2...-standards.php
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  #70  
Old Posted Mar 21, 2014, 4:00 AM
mhays mhays is offline
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I think it's topped out.
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  #71  
Old Posted Mar 21, 2014, 5:59 PM
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Yes, that one has been UC for a while.
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  #72  
Old Posted Mar 21, 2014, 6:05 PM
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Quote:
March 21, 2014
Board rules Liberty Bank building is not a landmark
By JOURNAL STAFF
http://www.djc.com/news/re/12063542.html

The former Liberty Bank building in Seattle's Central District can be demolished to make way for low-income apartments, following a decision by a city board this week.

I'm a stickler for demolishing designs I think are historic and add character. This one does not meet that standard in my book. I'm glad they can demolish it. They shouldn't have even wasted time trying to decide.
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  #73  
Old Posted Mar 21, 2014, 10:19 PM
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Yes, topped out.....sorry. Like the bldg. Topping out was the excuse to post it again. Then I screwed it up. Long week. Glad the weekend is coming.
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  #74  
Old Posted Mar 24, 2014, 8:42 PM
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University District (UD)

The UD has seen a hand-full of big projects in the form of new dorms on Campus Parkway at the UW. Activity has been building further off campus and in the hands of private development.

The first big one out of the gate in the past couple of years was "AVA" on 12th Ave between 45th and 47th Streets. This was a giant surface parking lot and two nice old houses/small business structures.

UD - AVA Begins by mSeattle, on Flickr

AVA in the middle

AVA in the middle by mSeattle, on Flickr



AVA complete (March 2014), more or less...

AVA Complete by mSeattle, on Flickr


AVA Complete by mSeattle, on Flickr


AVA Complete by mSeattle, on Flickr

A project in 2014 nearing completion on 10th Ave between 45th and 47th Streets.


UD 10th Ave by mSeattle, on Flickr


UD 10th Ave by mSeattle, on Flickr

Student apartments (private developer ?) on 12th Ave

UD Apartments by mSeattle, on Flickr

12th Ave #1 - As of March 3, 2014


12th Ave #2 - As of March 3, 2014

Last edited by mSeattle; Mar 26, 2014 at 3:56 AM.
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  #75  
Old Posted Mar 25, 2014, 6:21 PM
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Henbart designs housing, retail and offices for prime Ballard site

Henbart LLC decided to go for a unique design as soon as it started planning a mixed-use project at 5601 22nd Ave. N.W. in Ballard


Courtesy Studio Meng Strazzara

The project team is planning two shorter buildings instead of one large structure, with 80 apartments and small spaces for urban businesses.
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  #76  
Old Posted Mar 25, 2014, 6:40 PM
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Thumbs up

Quote:
March 25, 2014
2015 should be record year for apartments
Vacancies are near an all-time low as developers plan to open about 10,000 units this year — and 14,500 next year.
By JOURNAL STAFF
http://www.djc.com/news/re/12063642.html?cgi=yes

The apartment vacancy rate is near an all-time low and a record number of units are scheduled to open next year, according to a report by Dupre + Scott Apartment Advisors.

Excluding properties that just opened throughout the region, the vacancy rate is down from 4 percent last fall to 3.6 percent.
We need other measurements along with vacancy rate. We need a housing-need-rate and desire-to-improve-one's-housing-rate...
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  #77  
Old Posted Mar 25, 2014, 8:42 PM
mhays mhays is offline
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The vacancy rate is a relatively simple survey of property owners, a small enough effort that a brokerage can do it frequently and trends can be shown. The rate of "needing housing" suggests a sampling or census of a vast number of people. A sampling could be doable.
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  #78  
Old Posted Mar 25, 2014, 9:27 PM
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UD-Brooklyn Station (North Link Light Rail Construction)

A day of anticipation and dread. My trees will be cut.

Brooklyn Station Start by mSeattle, on Flickr


Brooklyn Station Start by mSeattle, on Flickr


My Trees by mSeattle, on Flickr


Trees Cut Dec 20, 2013 by mSeattle, on Flickr


Brooklyn Station - Night by mSeattle, on Flickr






Last edited by mSeattle; Mar 27, 2014 at 4:09 AM.
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  #79  
Old Posted Mar 25, 2014, 11:21 PM
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Another project (Bridges @ 11th) kicked into gear as AVA starting to complete.
This too used to be a big surface parking lot but for the auto dealers. In the back ground of the first picture you can see construction of a parking garage (former surface parking lot).
There was more than enough space for them to move their inventory around the neighborhood and still accommodate other business and school parking needs. Lots more residential and commercial development can fit into this area.











Looking north on 11th, Bridges (left) and AVA (right).

Last edited by mSeattle; Mar 26, 2014 at 1:56 AM.
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  #80  
Old Posted Mar 26, 2014, 12:40 AM
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University District

A couple of apartment buildings have been UC near the bottom of the hill along I-5. Must be 7th or 8th Avenue and 30th-ish.



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