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  #21  
Old Posted May 8, 2017, 8:14 PM
NorthernDancer NorthernDancer is offline
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For the United States the mixing of some MSAs and some CSAs doesn't make for a very useful list.
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  #22  
Old Posted May 9, 2017, 12:08 AM
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London and New York, same scale.

New York

London
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  #23  
Old Posted May 9, 2017, 1:41 AM
SunDevil SunDevil is offline
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Originally Posted by dc_denizen View Post
London and New York, same scale.

New York

London
Your' London link for me was 5k and NYC link for me was 2k. Not saying there is or isn't a point to be made, just letting you know.
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  #24  
Old Posted May 9, 2017, 9:49 AM
toddguy toddguy is offline
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Originally Posted by isaidso View Post
Adelaide likely missed the 20,000 cut off by a hair. Surprisingly, Winnipeg wasn't that far off adding 17,145 people (+2.2%). Very good growth for a metro of only 811,874 people, in the middle of the northern prairie, and no natural resources to speak of.
Doesn't Winnipeg get many foreign immigrants? That is still very impressive growth any way you cut it. I could not handle the winters though.
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  #25  
Old Posted May 9, 2017, 11:44 AM
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muppet, there's no way you can count Norfolk as part of the London commuter belt. The odd person might come in from Swindon or Cambridge or Brighton, but not enough to include these in London's metropolitan population either.

The difference in the US is that you've got continuous built up area over great distances. You can't really do it based on percentage of commuters into the central business district or city. There might be relatively few people commuting from mid- Suffolk County to Manhattan, for instance, but a lot that work in Melville, which in turn is unquestionably metro NY.

We have a lot of debates here about comparing US metros and European metros on an apples-to-apples basis, but the truth is that you really can't because the development patterns are so different. You can compare cities in the US to Canada or Australia, but none of those can really be compared fairly to European cities.
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  #26  
Old Posted May 9, 2017, 12:24 PM
balletomane balletomane is offline
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Doesn't Winnipeg get many foreign immigrants? That is still very impressive growth any way you cut it. I could not handle the winters though.
Yes, Winnipeg's growth is owed almost entirely to immigration. If it weren't for international immigrants and a fast growing urban Aboriginal population, the CMA would be stagnant or falling in population, in fact we'd probably be at 650,000.
The city is expected to grow to 883,000 in 2021, pretty good growth from 812,000 in 2016.
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  #27  
Old Posted May 10, 2017, 4:47 PM
Jonesy55 Jonesy55 is offline
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I used the Larger Urban Zone as defined by Eurostat. This includes most of the classic commuter towns surrounding London like St Albans, Basildon, Chelmsford, Sevenoaks, Tunbridge Wells, Guildford, Watford and Slough. But it excludes standalone cities like Cambridge, Oxford, Canterbury, Brighton, Southampton, Portsmouth and Ipswich even if it is feasible to commute to London from them, given the small geographical size of England. Of course, you could argue until the cows come home about where to draw the line (although anything that includes Norfolk as part of metropolitan London is stretching the furthest bounds of credulity if you ask me).
I think the LUZ definition it's the most reasonable for London, the numbers commuting from cities like Oxford, Ipswich, Portsmouth etc into London are really quite small, and to include Norfolk or the Isle of Wight where hardly any residents commute to London would be ridiculous Imo.

On the other hand the definitions for Birmingham and Manchester are pretty much just the urban areas, there are plenty of people living in parts of Cheshire who work in Manchester, or people in parts of Warwickshire who work in Birmingham for example. Though the commuter belts are obviously much smaller than is the case for London.
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  #28  
Old Posted May 10, 2017, 4:59 PM
Jonesy55 Jonesy55 is offline
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The UK growth seems to be completely dominated by London with the rest of the country picking up the scraps.
London is growing significantly faster than the national average, but I wouldn't say ' Completely dominated '.

The total population growth in the UK in the year was 513,000 so with 175,000 the London LUZ was responsible for 34% of that while representing 21% of the total population.

London LUZ has a relatively high excess of births over deaths and lots of international migration, but it also loses a lot of people to internal UK migration.
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  #29  
Old Posted May 10, 2017, 6:36 PM
isaidso isaidso is offline
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The dominance by London over England is economic. With some exceptions here and there, there's a rather wealthy city situated in a relatively 'poor' (by western standards) nation. If you stripped out London, English GDP per capita isn't all that high.

Demographically, there's a big drop off in size from London to the 2nd and 3rd largest cities. Do migrants from London head to them or is it spread out fairly evenly throughout England?
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  #30  
Old Posted May 10, 2017, 7:11 PM
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Originally Posted by isaidso View Post
The dominance by London over England is economic. With some exceptions here and there, there's a rather wealthy city situated in a relatively 'poor' (by western standards) nation. If you stripped out London, English GDP per capita isn't all that high.

Demographically, there's a big drop off in size from London to the 2nd and 3rd largest cities. Do migrants from London head to them or is it spread out fairly evenly throughout England?
In my purely anecdotal experience, people don't generally move from London to other major cities in the UK unless they're going back where they came from. Maybe some move for jobs, but generally the outmigration from London is people will small children who move to suburbia or "the country" (villages and small towns, which may still be well within commuting range when necessary if not every single day... the line between the two is quite blurred of course), or perhaps small cities for various reasons. I know people who have moved from London to smaller cities like Oxford, Cambridge and Bournemouth, but no one that's moved to the next 3 or 4 largest cities.

I would expect that other major cities also experience net domestic outmigration, with population growth coming from international immigration.
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  #31  
Old Posted May 11, 2017, 10:59 AM
Jonesy55 Jonesy55 is offline
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Originally Posted by 10023 View Post
In my purely anecdotal experience, people don't generally move from London to other major cities in the UK unless they're going back where they came from. Maybe some move for jobs, but generally the outmigration from London is people will small children who move to suburbia or "the country" (villages and small towns, which may still be well within commuting range when necessary if not every single day... the line between the two is quite blurred of course), or perhaps small cities for various reasons. I know people who have moved from London to smaller cities like Oxford, Cambridge and Bournemouth, but no one that's moved to the next 3 or 4 largest cities.

I would expect that other major cities also experience net domestic outmigration, with population growth coming from international immigration.
I took a look at the latest figures on internal migration for the year to June 2015 and for the whole of the London LUZ of 13.7m there were 308,070 people who moved out of that area during the year to other parts of the UK.

Breaking it down to where they went:

Other parts of Southeast England region beyond the LUZ: 104,820 (34.0%)
of which South Hampshire conurbation of Southampton/Portsmouth: 9,400

Other parts of Eastern England region beyond the LUZ: 52,230 (17.0%)

Southwest England region: 41,210 (13.4%)
of which Greater Bristol area: 10,430

East Midlands region: 24,350 (7.9%)
of which Greater Nottingham/Derby region: 7,900

West Midlands region: 24,230 (7.9%)
of which West Midlands County/Greater Birmingham: 16,890

Northwest England region: 18,850 (6.1%)
of which Greater Manchester: 9,890 and Merseyside/Greater Liverpool 3,290

Yorkshire/Humber region: 16,030 (5.2%)
of which West Yorkshire (Leeds/Bradford area): 7,970 and South Yorkshire (Sheffield area): 3,750

Scotland: 10,190 (3.3%)

Wales: 7,910 (2.6%)

Northeast England region: 6,260 (2.0%)
of which Tyne & Wear (Greater Newcastle-upon-Tyne): 2,710

Northern Ireland: 1,990 (0.6%)

So for all those other main cities I mentioned specifically they had a total of 72,230 people moving there from the London LUZ that year, just under a quarter of the total numbers moving out. So just over 3/4 people moving out of the London LUZ were moving to smaller cities, towns or rural locations.

In terms of broad regions just over half moved out into the two regions geographically adjacent to the London LUZ, Southeast England and Eastern England.

'Greater Southeast England' (SE+E): 157,050 (51.0%)
West Country and Wales: 49,120 (15.9%)
English Midlands: 48,890 (15.8%)
Northern England: 41,140 (13.4%)
Scotland and NI: 12,180 (4.0%)

Last edited by Jonesy55; May 11, 2017 at 5:01 PM.
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  #32  
Old Posted May 11, 2017, 5:21 PM
Jonesy55 Jonesy55 is offline
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Originally Posted by isaidso View Post
The dominance by London over England is economic. With some exceptions here and there, there's a rather wealthy city situated in a relatively 'poor' (by western standards) nation. If you stripped out London, English GDP per capita isn't all that high.

Demographically, there's a big drop off in size from London to the 2nd and 3rd largest cities. Do migrants from London head to them or is it spread out fairly evenly throughout England?
No, GDP per capita is not particularly high in most of the rest of England (by wealthy country standards), but I don't think that's so much of a factor in where people decide to live which is probably more often a comparison of net wages available compared with living costs and lifestyle factors, including proximity to relatives and friends etc. GDP per capita is a bit too abstract for those kind of practical life choices, which is why you'll see similar net internal outmigration from high GDP/capita cities like New York, Paris etc.

Migrants do tend to go to the regional big cities more than other smaller places in the regions of those big cities, but it depends on local circumstances and who the migrants are, Polish migrants are much more spread around the country than Nigerian migrants for example.

Also some of those internal outmigrants from London were probably international in-migrants previously. London is by far the best known city in the UK and a natural initial destination for people coming from other countries. But once they are a bit more settled they might move on elsewhere as internal migrants, especially if not in high-paid jobs in the capital and/or if they start families.
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  #33  
Old Posted May 11, 2017, 6:16 PM
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emathias emathias is offline
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Originally Posted by muppet View Post
...
file:///C:/Users/Kin/Downloads/Subnational%20population%20projections%20for%20England%202014-based%20projections.pdf
What is this for? Surely you know we can't use file links on your personal computer.

I didn't realize the NYC metro was growing so much more slowly than the City proper.
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  #34  
Old Posted May 11, 2017, 6:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Jonesy55 View Post
So for all those other main cities I mentioned specifically they had a total of 72,230 people moving there from the London LUZ that year, just under a quarter of the total numbers moving out. So just over 3/4 people moving out of the London LUZ were moving to smaller cities, towns or rural locations.
So for all intents and purposes I was mostly (3/4) correct. And what the data doesn't show is how many of the remaining 1/4 were from those other cities originally, perhaps moved to London after uni, and went "home" to settle down.
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  #35  
Old Posted May 11, 2017, 8:22 PM
Jonesy55 Jonesy55 is offline
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Yeah you are right, I'd think a lot of those are probably people 'moving home', or at least for one person in a couple it's moving back home. I know a few people who have moved to London in their early 20s, then met somebody, started a family and then moved to where their partner was originally from, so it was 'back home' for one of them, but somewhere new for the other.

Those 'born and bred' Londoners that I've known who have moved to other parts of the country other than those moving with partners seem to have done so because they don't want the big city life any longer, so moving to Birmingham or Manchester or Leeds wouldn't make much sense from that perspective, they want a cute small town or a place in the countryside.
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  #36  
Old Posted May 12, 2017, 4:24 AM
isaidso isaidso is offline
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CSA was used for Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Salt Lake City in the table in post #1. I've added below the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) by tabulating the data for the 9 relevant CMAs (Toronto, Hamilton, Oshawa, St.Catharines-Niagara, Kitchener-Waterloo, Guelph, Brantford, Peterborough, Barrie) but it excludes all the rural areas in between.

I don't consider the GGH one metro but do consider Greater Toronto Hamilton as one metro so I've tabulated that too. It consists of 3 CMAs: Toronto, Hamilton, Oshawa.


Greater Golden Horseshoe.............148,612...............8,974,252.........1.7%
Greater Toronto Hamilton..............132,018...............7,414,667.........1.8%
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  #37  
Old Posted May 12, 2017, 11:37 AM
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I also consider Toronto, Hamilton and Oshawa to be one metro, as there is no separation between them. Driving from Hamilton to Oshawa , the development is contiguous.
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  #38  
Old Posted May 12, 2017, 10:59 PM
isaidso isaidso is offline
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I also consider Toronto, Hamilton and Oshawa to be one metro, as there is no separation between them. Driving from Hamilton to Oshawa , the development is contiguous.
It looks like Greater Toronto Hamilton is on target for 8 million by 2020.
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  #39  
Old Posted May 15, 2017, 4:19 PM
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Call it Torontilton. Or Toroshalton (if you want to include poor old Oshawa...the city with the least press on the Canadian forum of SSP, along with St. Catherines).
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  #40  
Old Posted May 15, 2017, 8:29 PM
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Why are NYC's growth numbers so low?
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