HomeDiagramsDatabaseMapsForumSkyscraper Posters
     

Go Back   SkyscraperPage Forum > Discussion Forums > City Discussions

Reply

 
Thread Tools Display Modes
     
     
  #1  
Old Posted May 3, 2017, 6:13 PM
RST500 RST500 is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 351
Where Automation Poses the Biggest Threat to American Jobs: "No, it’s not in the Rust

Where Automation Poses the Biggest Threat to American Jobs

No, it’s not in the Rust Belt.


https://www.citylab.com/work/2017/05...n-jobs/525240/
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #2  
Old Posted May 3, 2017, 7:20 PM
emathias's Avatar
emathias emathias is online now
Adoptive Chicagoan
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: River North, Chicago, Illinois
Posts: 4,133
Quote:
Originally Posted by RST500 View Post
Where Automation Poses the Biggest Threat to American Jobs

No, it’s not in the Rust Belt.


https://www.citylab.com/work/2017/05...n-jobs/525240/
Part of what that article mentions is automation in transportation. I don't know if you've seen the X-Men movie, "Logan," but it's set just 12 years from now and shows fully-automated, driverless trucks carrying shipping containers. It strikes me that, in 12 years, that could actually be reality.

It was also a little bit of an irony that future Logan made a living by driving a limo in a time when being a driver was a shrinking job opportunity.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #3  
Old Posted May 3, 2017, 7:49 PM
pdxtex's Avatar
pdxtex pdxtex is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Portland, OR
Posts: 2,247
I try to look at automation in a more positive light. if you think about it, lots of processes are automated. it means you use a tool or process that's streamlined to do an otherwise more involved task. everybody talks about displacement, but they don't necessarily speak about replacement. for every new technology, tons of new supportive jobs pop up. we have lots and lots of jobs now that didn't even exist 20 or 30 years ago. so people might be out of a job because of emerging technology but they will probably find one based on it too. id probably start forming a plan B if I were a librarian or bank teller though.
__________________
Portland!! Where young people go to retire.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #4  
Old Posted May 3, 2017, 8:27 PM
Buckeye Native 001 Buckeye Native 001 is offline
is a loser.
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Arizona
Posts: 29,078
That seems awfully optimistic. I'm worried that what we'll be looking at is a lot of unemployment and underemployment.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #5  
Old Posted May 3, 2017, 8:31 PM
ChargerCarl's Avatar
ChargerCarl ChargerCarl is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: Los Angeles/San Francisco
Posts: 2,326
At one of our dinners, Milton recalled traveling to an Asian country in the 1960s and visiting a worksite where a new canal was being built. He was shocked to see that, instead of modern tractors and earth movers, the workers had shovels. He asked why there were so few machines. The government bureaucrat explained: “You don’t understand. This is a jobs program.” To which Milton replied: “Oh, I thought you were trying to build a canal. If it’s jobs you want, then you should give these workers spoons, not shovels.”

Luddite fears have always been misplaced in the past and I don't see any reason to think they'll be true this time.
__________________
This Machine Kills NIMBYs
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #6  
Old Posted May 3, 2017, 8:47 PM
MonkeyRonin's Avatar
MonkeyRonin MonkeyRonin is offline
¥ ¥ ¥
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto
Posts: 5,697
So long as there's the political will for Universal Basic Income, automation should be a blessing. The whole point is that we work less and accomplish more.
__________________
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #7  
Old Posted May 3, 2017, 9:09 PM
Centropolis's Avatar
Centropolis Centropolis is offline
crisis actor
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: the cypress trees
Posts: 7,117
Quote:
Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin View Post
So long as there's the political will for Universal Basic Income, automation should be a blessing. The whole point is that we work less and accomplish more.
uh, but that aint how it works in the states. you end up with burned off districts and heroin needles everywhere. there's far more will to let vast numbers of people suffer in the states.
__________________
fastwalker
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #8  
Old Posted May 3, 2017, 9:21 PM
pdxtex's Avatar
pdxtex pdxtex is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Portland, OR
Posts: 2,247
money and income has value because of the time and expertise it requires to earrrrrn it. not just receive it. universal basic income is a socialist (crack) pipe dream. it would have as much merit as "mining" bitcoins. you think current welfare breeds lack of motivation? this would be welfare on bath salts. no thanks.
__________________
Portland!! Where young people go to retire.

Last edited by pdxtex; May 3, 2017 at 9:33 PM.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #9  
Old Posted May 4, 2017, 2:12 AM
kingkirbythe....'s Avatar
kingkirbythe.... kingkirbythe.... is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 359
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #10  
Old Posted May 4, 2017, 2:30 AM
Chef's Avatar
Chef Chef is offline
Paradise Island
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 1,443
Marx was right about the endgame of capitalism. The part he got wrong was the time scale.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #11  
Old Posted May 4, 2017, 2:57 AM
MonkeyRonin's Avatar
MonkeyRonin MonkeyRonin is offline
¥ ¥ ¥
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto
Posts: 5,697
Quote:
Originally Posted by Centropolis View Post
uh, but that aint how it works in the states. you end up with burned off districts and heroin needles everywhere. there's far more will to let vast numbers of people suffer in the states.

Unfortunately you're probably right when this seems to be the predominant view on "socialism" in the US:


Quote:
Originally Posted by pdxtex View Post
money and income has value because of the time and expertise it requires to earrrrrn it. not just receive it. universal basic income is a socialist (crack) pipe dream. it would have as much merit as "mining" bitcoins. you think current welfare breeds lack of motivation? this would be welfare on bath salts. no thanks.

So what would you propose then when the existence of half the population is rendered redundant to the economy: let them starve, or put them in costly make-work projects that waste their time and add nothing of value to society?

While new jobs will be created as they always have, likewise will productivity increase, and the need for labour decrease. For the whole of human history this has been how things have been trending, and that's likely to increase exponentially in the near future. Sooner or later people will need to get past this sort of Protestant work ethic mentality whereby one must justify their existence by working.

In any case, right now UBI is not financially feasible (there still is a pretty high need for labour, even if a lot of our jobs are already redundant make-work projects). But when the need for labour is halved while the same or greater economic output is being made, well, then why not?
__________________
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #12  
Old Posted May 4, 2017, 3:01 AM
ChargerCarl's Avatar
ChargerCarl ChargerCarl is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: Los Angeles/San Francisco
Posts: 2,326
You guys are putting the cart before the horse. As far as I can tell technological unemployment hasn't arrived.
__________________
This Machine Kills NIMBYs
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #13  
Old Posted May 4, 2017, 3:08 AM
The North One's Avatar
The North One The North One is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 2,247
Universal basic income

*mic drop*
__________________
Spawn of questionable parentage!
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #14  
Old Posted May 4, 2017, 4:39 AM
pdxtex's Avatar
pdxtex pdxtex is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Portland, OR
Posts: 2,247
Quote:
Originally Posted by kingkirbythe.... View Post
"Don’t accept anything less than a cash dividend for your investments in this grand organization called human civilization. Claim what you are owed and demand unconditional basic income. Furthermore, demand that it be indexed to rise with national wealth so as to reflect your share of rising productivity due to automation. "


huhhawww, you hippies are funny. so what do you ppl do that you are afraid a robot or computer program is going to replace?
__________________
Portland!! Where young people go to retire.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #15  
Old Posted May 4, 2017, 4:40 AM
pdxtex's Avatar
pdxtex pdxtex is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Portland, OR
Posts: 2,247
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChargerCarl View Post
You guys are putting the cart before the horse. As far as I can tell technological unemployment hasn't arrived.
and it wont in any meaningful way in our lifetime...
__________________
Portland!! Where young people go to retire.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #16  
Old Posted May 4, 2017, 5:08 AM
austlar1 austlar1 is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Austin
Posts: 2,188
pdxtex, what kind of work do you do that makes you feel so secure about the future? I'm 70 years old, and, if you told me just 15 or 20 years ago that I could obtain a vast library of accurate information, live-stream video, make around the world phone calls, send and receive pictures, text, or email practically anywhere in the world from my little hand held all purpose wireless device and I could do it without incurring any extra charges to boot, I would have suggested that you see a shrink. That was the kind of shit that only Dick Tracy could do on his magic wrist watch, which was not an Apple Watch by the way. I have seen so much change come so quickly in my lifetime. I suspect it is more than likely that most of the work now done by humans (not just manufacturing or truck driving but also most intellectual tasks involving creative thinking, organizational skills, and problem solving) will be done by computers and various forms of AI within the next two or three decades. 90% of humankind will become redundant and scarily expendable. The other 10% might still be needed to function as technicians in the service of this vastly superior artificial intelligence. One suspects our new masters won't feel the need to provide universal basic income. They'll probably just send a genetically engineered final solution our way and get on with their business.

Last edited by austlar1; May 4, 2017 at 5:18 AM.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #17  
Old Posted May 4, 2017, 5:19 AM
photoLith's Avatar
photoLith photoLith is online now
Ex Houstonian
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Oakland, Pittsburgh
Posts: 11,018
The only solution to mass automation is the universal basic income. This will have to happen unless we want 90 percent of the worlds population to be living in abject poverty. With most things, the US will lag behind and its populace will suffer as most of the 1st world countries implement a basic income for their populations. Most civilized countries had universal healthcare 50 or so years ago and the US still is dragging its feet at the behest of the wealthy donor class, I would expect the same lag time to occur here when it comes to a universal basic income.

Edit, I see everyone else beat me to the universal basic income argument, good to know we're all at least roughly on the same page with this one.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #18  
Old Posted May 4, 2017, 2:28 PM
pdxtex's Avatar
pdxtex pdxtex is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Portland, OR
Posts: 2,247
Quote:
Originally Posted by austlar1 View Post
pdxtex, what kind of work do you do that makes you feel so secure about the future? I'm 70 years old, and, if you told me just 15 or 20 years ago that I could obtain a vast library of accurate information, live-stream video, make around the world phone calls, send and receive pictures, text, or email practically anywhere in the world from my little hand held all purpose wireless device and I could do it without incurring any extra charges to boot, I would have suggested that you see a shrink. That was the kind of shit that only Dick Tracy could do on his magic wrist watch, which was not an Apple Watch by the way. I have seen so much change come so quickly in my lifetime. I suspect it is more than likely that most of the work now done by humans (not just manufacturing or truck driving but also most intellectual tasks involving creative thinking, organizational skills, and problem solving) will be done by computers and various forms of AI within the next two or three decades. 90% of humankind will become redundant and scarily expendable. The other 10% might still be needed to function as technicians in the service of this vastly superior artificial intelligence. One suspects our new masters won't feel the need to provide universal basic income. They'll probably just send a genetically engineered final solution our way and get on with their business.
15 years ago was 2002. people were using the internet in the mid 1980s, even earlier if you ever used one of those "phone" modems you actually put the phone earpiece into. im a cad designer at a large utility company. i design substations and transmission lines. when cad first came along, manual drafter either adapted to the tech, or did something else. same with photogrammetrists, you learned gis or did something. else. im don't think my job is free from being streamlined or outsourced either, but its far from being "automated". if anything, electricity generation might be different in the future, this is true and elon musk will have put me out of a job. but for now there's too much human interaction involved. and thats the key, does your occupation require more than one persons input, frequent changes in process? i use "automated" tasks, bulk printing, global edits, but until they invent the drafting robot, engineering will probably be a safe field (have you seen how many wonks are involved to build a sub-station??? lots!). tasks to be automated will be simple processes, redundant actions....we've been striving to reduce redundancy since, well for a very long time......i take it you aren't a fry cook and probably didn't work at mall record shop. the key will be to produce the information, not be the end user of it. if you can maintain value by your presence in place, than people should be fine. but yeah, coders being outsourced by folks in india should worry. people will adapt....suppose this is all hogwash though, we've put ourselves all of out a job thru technology and UBI takes place. what will people do all day? i hear the philosophical arguments for it, but what value will people have then? were just going to sit around, receive money and pay our bills?? no one really seems to grasp what all of these jobless people will do then besides sitting around and "existing". i agree, some kind of single payer safety net seems good and perhaps america needs a better one. i guarantee the borders to this country will be effectively closed the moment ubi takes hold though and the cities will be chaos. so if you all are right, ill be up in the hills protecting my bunker....but waiting for my check too!
__________________
Portland!! Where young people go to retire.

Last edited by pdxtex; May 4, 2017 at 5:51 PM.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #19  
Old Posted May 4, 2017, 2:28 PM
Centropolis's Avatar
Centropolis Centropolis is offline
crisis actor
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: the cypress trees
Posts: 7,117
maybe im being simplistic, i think we (generally) need to re-orient our ecomomies to a local/regional scale, even if that means doing "socialist" things like government incentives to begin producing things locally again...I mean like on a HUGE scale. this seems like a better approach than the UBI (which i still feel will result in (more) heroin needle-strewn lots), when you take into account human/western psychology.
__________________
fastwalker
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #20  
Old Posted May 4, 2017, 2:31 PM
Centropolis's Avatar
Centropolis Centropolis is offline
crisis actor
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: the cypress trees
Posts: 7,117
Quote:
Originally Posted by pdxtex View Post
but yeah, coders being outsourced by folks in india should worry. people will adapt....
but sometimes people don't adapt, and they do bad things or have bad things happen to them. sometimes huge numbers of people...then what? we sort of got around this last time since the power centers are on the coasts and the damage could be "ignored."
__________________
fastwalker
Reply With Quote
     
     
This discussion thread continues

Use the page links to the lower-right to go to the next page for additional posts
 
 
Reply

Go Back   SkyscraperPage Forum > Discussion Forums > City Discussions
Forum Jump


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Forum Jump


All times are GMT. The time now is 8:47 PM.

     

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.