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  #21  
Old Posted May 12, 2017, 4:23 PM
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Originally Posted by CherryCreek View Post
Will be interesting to see if Congress adopts the big tax cuts + spending cuts proposed by Trump.

As a few economists have pointed out, this will shift wealth fairly significantly to the highest income states, particularly if there is a combination of government spending cuts AND Large tax cuts. I've seen a number of $6.2 Trillion of 10 years. Like Harry Truman used to say, a trillion here, a trillion there, pretty soon you talking about some real money!
What business really cares about is cuts in the corporate tax rate and that is most important for the economy also because it will lead, hopefully, to the return of trillions of $ of profits being kept overseas to the US. Many people now suspect that is the only tax cut that will pass. The question is cut to what rate. Trump has proposed 15%. Paul Ryan wanted 20% (it's 35% now). And some have proposed a "tax holiday" with a special temporary low rate on the overseas money--5 or 10%.

I hope something does get done on this because I do think it will help the economy and because there is also a proposal to spend some or all of the incremental income on taxation (at whatever rate) of the repatriated profits on infrastructure. It's be a one-time thing so it should go either to debt reduction or capital spending, not operating costs.

Finally, regardless of the rate at which it is taxed or what is done with the government revenue, all that money will go into the economy in a sudden slug. If companies spend it on plant and equipment it will go to other businesses. If they distribute it to shareholders, the shareholders will either invest it or spend it. Regardless it should give the econony a sharp kick.

None of this involves any change in tax rates to individuals and I doubt there will be any.
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  #22  
Old Posted May 12, 2017, 5:46 PM
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Originally Posted by chris08876 View Post
I wonder if NY will catch up to Texas?

Shame upstate isn't booming.
Not a chance. TX recently caught up to and surpassed NYS and as TX continues to surge in population (while NYS stagnates), it will only widen the gap.

Plus, New York State pretty much only has NYC has its economic engine with much of that metro area falling outside of the state while Texas has DFW, Houston, Austin and San Antonio all of which are booming.

Upstate is too far gone to ever really make a come back.
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  #23  
Old Posted May 21, 2017, 4:47 PM
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Originally Posted by JManc View Post
Not a chance. TX recently caught up to and surpassed NYS and as TX continues to surge in population (while NYS stagnates), it will only widen the gap.

Plus, New York State pretty much only has NYC has its economic engine with much of that metro area falling outside of the state while Texas has DFW, Houston, Austin and San Antonio all of which are booming.

Upstate is too far gone to ever really make a come back.
Its more accurate to compare the entire state of Texas to just NYC. No I don't think one city is going to have a higher GDP than an entire state that just happens to be the second largest in the country.

Honestly I think its amazing that basically one city, NYC, has approx. 88% of the entire Texas state economy.
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  #24  
Old Posted May 22, 2017, 4:02 AM
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Originally Posted by Shawn View Post
Massachusetts really punches above its weight - a higher GDP than states like MI and VA with millions of more people.
That's what a lot of excellent universities will do.
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  #25  
Old Posted May 22, 2017, 5:13 AM
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Originally Posted by BG918 View Post
You can clearly see how important oil & gas is to the GDP in certain energy states. North Dakota, Wyoming, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Louisiana all have negative growth. Texas is only at 0.4 growth. Interestingly, Colorado had decent growth even with a large oil & gas industry there.

To answer the question above, South Dakota doesn't have hardly any oil & gas so that could be why they have positive growth. Not sure what is driving their economy though.
Part of it when you look at the states of course is oil and gas. Even for a big state like Texas who had phenomenal growth rates from 2009 to 2014 and then flattened out from 2014 to 2016, the affect of the oil industry is huge. The western states were very hard hit by the recession and seem to be now hitting their stride.
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  #26  
Old Posted May 22, 2017, 7:50 AM
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To give one perspective about just US oil production, we've almost doubled it from 2010 to 2014 (~ 5 million barrels per day to 9.5 million BPD). We are almost back to hitting highs in oil production here in 2017 with a bulk of that increase happening in the Permian Basin in Texas.
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