Statscan CMA Projections 2031

[Calgarian]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Also, whether or not Alberta and BC can trump Quebec's influence will be largely dependent upon these two provinces being able to present a common front on issues.

Which seems less likely these days,

[someone123]

The Atlantic cities, Quebec City, Saskatoon, and Regina all seem too low and a few places in Ontario are too high (e.g. Windsor at 512,000, and maybe places like Hamilton and Brantford). Generally, the low-balled cities are the ones with lower immigration.

[raggedy13]

Vancouver 2031:

Low-growth

= 3,195,000
= 1.4% / yr
= 39,500 ppl / yr

High-growth

= 3,783,000
= 2.2% / yr
= 66,000 ppl / yr

[Bassic Lab]

Originally Posted by someone123

The Atlantic cities, Quebec City, Saskatoon, and Regina all seem too low and a few places in Ontario are too high (e.g. Windsor at 512,000).

I'd add the other Saskatchewan, other Manitoba, and other Nova Scotia to the too high list. The rural areas of these provinces, especially Saskatchewan, have been emptying out for decades. I'm of the opinion that the provinces will be the size they're suggested to be but the split will be significantly more favourable to Regina, Saskatoon, and Halifax.

That and the Greater Golden Horseshoe doesn't seem right. I can't see ten million in Toronto without greater growth in places like Guelph. For Toronto to get that big a great deal of growth will have to start leaching out to the surrounding CMAs, there just isn't the room what with the Toronto CMA sandwiched between all the others. Again, the total number seems right but where it all fits in the Greater Golden Horseshoe seems wrong.

[drew]

Originally Posted by Bassic Lab

I'd add the other Saskatchewan, other Manitoba, and other Nova Scotia to the too high list. The rural areas of these provinces, especially Saskatchewan, have been emptying out for decades.

Lately, the fastest growing communities in Manitoba are all outside of the Winnipeg CMA.

Morden, Winkler, and Steinbach all generally grow at a much faster % than Winnipeg.

[dennis1]

Originally Posted by raggedy13

Vancouver 2031:

Low-growth

= 3,195,000
= 1.4% / yr
= 39,500 ppl / yr

High-growth

= 3,783,000
= 2.2% / yr
= 66,000 ppl / yr

Isn't that so cool? Vancouver at 3.7, Lower Mainland at 4.1.

Vancouver should be knocking on the door for NBA and MLB.

[dennis1]

FYI, That is just the Calgary CMA. The Regional Partnership(?) will have around 2.2 million by then its estimated.

[Alexcaban]

Originally Posted by dennis1

Isn't that so cool? Vancouver at 3.7, Lower Mainland at 4.1.

Vancouver should be knocking on the door for NBA and MLB.

Ya won't happen!
NBA never worked in Vancouver.

[Andy6]

Originally Posted by drew

Lately, the fastest growing communities in Manitoba are all outside of the Winnipeg CMA.

Morden, Winkler, and Steinbach all generally grow at a much faster % than Winnipeg.

Yes, I was going to say that too. Take a trip to Winkler, Morden or Steinbach someday and come back and tell me that rural parts of Manitoba aren't growing. Or even Brandon for that matter.

The reality is that people are going to get tired of a lot of our cities and move out to these cheaper and friendlier places, especially as a wired society allows us to work from anywhere.

[RTD]

Originally Posted by drew

Lately, the fastest growing communities in Manitoba are all outside of the Winnipeg CMA.

Morden, Winkler, and Steinbach all generally grow at a much faster % than Winnipeg.

Winkler and Steinbach are among the top 10 or 15 fastest growing communities in Canada. Manitoba does have pockets of areas that are indeed booming. Brandon and Winnipeg are now growing at a decent pace with an influx of immigrants. Things are looking really good on this end, IMO.

[Ramako]

Originally Posted by Bassic Lab

That and the Greater Golden Horseshoe doesn't seem right. I can't see ten million in Toronto without greater growth in places like Guelph. For Toronto to get that big a great deal of growth will have to start leaching out to the surrounding CMAs, there just isn't the room what with the Toronto CMA sandwiched between all the others. Again, the total number seems right but where it all fits in the Greater Golden Horseshoe seems wrong.

There's plenty of room for Toronto to grow. It's just that the city is growing up, not out. That's why there's been an explosion in condo construction both downtown and in the suburbs. Mississauga, which is part of the CMA, can surely pull in big numbers. Hell, you could even fit another downtown into the Don Lands/Port Lands.

There's also those massive swaths of single-family homes surrounding the core. I wonder if any of them will be razed over the coming decades.

[thurmas]

The toronto numbers are too high toronto grows by about 100,000 every year x that by 20 you get 2 million more people giving toronto about 7.7 million not 9.7 montreal grows by about 45,000 a year and van city 50,000 a year and winnipeg 10,000 a year so the gap between toronto and montreal and edmonton and winnipeg will be more dramatic in 20 years. However in 20 years all cars might be electric by then so alberta's oil revenue might be dramaticly cut therefore alberta's growth might not be as strong as it is today.

[caltrane74]

The way I see it, Mississauga and Brampton can team up and take in another 2 million people. Markham, Vaughan and Richmond Hill can team up and take in another 2 million, and the Halton and Durham can take in an additional 500,000 each. That should get us to 2031, big question then, is what happens next?

[caltrane74]

I dont see how the Toronto numbers are too high, if Toronto grew at Calgary's projected rate, by 2031 we would be sitting at 12 million.. so in fact growing to just 10 million CMA or 50% growth is not that big a stretch. Remember we start with a massive head start, 6.0 million in the bank and 8.5 in the vault.

[Wooster]

Originally Posted by thurmas

The toronto numbers are too high toronto grows by about 100,000 every year x that by 20 you get 2 million more people giving toronto about 7.7 million not 9.7 montreal grows by about 45,000 a year and van city 50,000 a year and winnipeg 10,000 a year so the gap between toronto and montreal and edmonton and winnipeg will be more dramatic in 20 years. However in 20 years all cars might be electric by then so alberta's oil revenue might be dramaticly cut therefore alberta's growth might not be as strong as it is today.

Cities don't grow in a linear fashion like that. Sure, today the GTA might add 100,000 per year, but in 5 years it is likely to grow by more like 115,000 per year, in 10 years at about 130,000 per year and in 15 years by 145,000 a per year, and so on. The same percentage of growth each year equals more people in absolute numbers per year.

Same reason why Calgary took 100 years to reach 1 million, but will only take another 30 or so years to achieve 2 million.

[jmt18325]

Originally Posted by lubicon

I would partly disagree. Yes, Quebec is decreasing it's share of population but it will always have influence due to constitutional privisions that allow it to maintain more seats in Parliament than it deserves (based solely on population).

Actually, above the current 75, those special clauses (which don't only apply to Quebec) no longer apply.

[thurmas]

that's not true toronto's population was in the mid 3 million area in the 1980's and today it's in the mid 5 million area a span of about 20 years. Yes calgary may double faster than toronto but that's because it is a much smaller city with a very high growth rate while toronto has always had a very stable growth rate the past 30,40 years same with montreal and vancouver.

[PoscStudent]

Originally Posted by lubicon

I would partly disagree. Yes, Quebec is decreasing it's share of population but it will always have influence due to constitutional privisions that allow it to maintain more seats in Parliament than it deserves (based solely on population). But I do agree in that there is at least some shifting westward in political influence.

None of the provinces can ever lose any of their House of Commons seats no matter what happens to the population.

[SteelTown]

"The City of Hamilton is forecast to experience significant population growth over the next 20 years. The population of the city is planned to grow from the current 500,000 residents to an anticipated population of 660,000 residents while employment is expected to grow to 300,000 jobs by 2031."

From Metrolinx - Hhamilton King-Main Benefits Case (Feb 2010)
http://www.metrolinx.com/Docs/Agenda..._FNL_DRAFT.pdf

Within 20 years the population within the City of Hamilton is expected to jump nearly 150,000. That's a big jump. Hamilton's CMA only jumped about 14,000 within the last three years.

[Wooster]

Originally Posted by thurmas

that's not true toronto's population was in the mid 3 million area in the 1980's and today it's in the mid 5 million area a span of about 20 years. Yes calgary may double faster than toronto but that's because it is a much smaller city with a very high growth rate while toronto has always had a very stable growth rate the past 30,40 years same with montreal and vancouver.

A steady growth rate of say 1.5% a year, means that the growth in actual population per year will also rise over time.

For example growth rate 1.5% each year

Year 1: 3,000,000
Year 2: 3,045,000 (growth of 45,000)
Year 3: 3,090,675 (growth of 45,675)
Year 4: 3,137,035 (growth of 46,350)
Year 5: 3,184,090 (growth of 47,055)

...

Year 10: 3,430,169
Year 11: 3,481,621 (growth of 51,452)

At this relatively low growth rate, the city is adding 2,055 more per year than it was years previous, in ten years that steady growth rate yields 6155 more people a year than in year one.

Growth rates ebb and flow, but when you average over time, populations grow more or less in an exponential way.