The Oil Decline Thread Take II

[leftimage]

I take it the previous thread discussing this very important and à propos topic was closed by moderators... a shame. That certainly won't stop me from starting another one. It's shameful to that we can't discuss the most important economic development in our country in several years without peoples' feelings getting hurt. The 'oil in your city' thread is OK but we need one to discuss implications. The absence of one is a glaring embarrassment at this point. I patiently waited for a new thread to appear but it hasn't so here goes.

In regards to the oil 'crisis' at hand, there are no winners and losers. All provinces will be affected in complex ways. Collectively, though, the members of this forum will be winners if they behave nicely and the thread stays open, because there are posters here from across Canada who are very well-educated on the topic of oil.

I was pretty pissed by the last thread closing because It had provided a lot of valuable, authentic Canada-related insight. So, let's recognize that SSP features the best general discussion forum in Canada, behave like the grown-ups that we are and discuss the fascinating implications of the recent monster decline in oil prices. Some articles from today:

CBC - Oil trades below 50$ barrel

G&M - How 40$ oil would impact Canada's provinces

I'm especially eager to hear from people working in the industry and those living in areas where the oil sector carries greater importance locally. (AB, Sask, NFLD)

[Doug]

Commodity prices are volatile and unpredictable. Don't believe anybody who claims to know where the market is heading. The O&G industry in Canada as a whole is well aware of this fact and consequently carries low debt and outsources much of its exploration and development. It can turn on a dime and rapidly decrease investment, meaning that its long term resilience is not in question. The pain to provincial governments and O&G workers will be immediate and wide spread. It could have been avoided by building up financial buffers, but self indulgence figures too strongly in human nature. The governments of AB, SK and NL would be best to tear off the bandaid and cut spending immediately as waiting to do so will only magnify the problem. AB in particular can weather the storm as it so vastly outspends other provinces on virtually every line item that the 20% cut required to balance the budget would still leave it as the biggest spending provincial government.

[Stryker]

tell me about it, I was suppose to go on work term this semester, and yet only 5 out of 19 students were able to find workterms.

Seriously not being able to talk of this issue really makes this form kinda useless.



granted at this point the bickering is beyond petty when people are actually being denied jobs because of the swing. This is no longer a theoretical rivalry.

[Infrequent Poster]

Hopefully this thread stays open, mine lasted 4 mins (nuff said). I would also hope to hear some input from people working in fields directly or indirectly related to the industry. Over and above that I got to say Its sure nice to be saving some money on gas! For what its worth I work in construction and we are still swamped with work. However I'm in BC, I wonder if there are any slowdowns in Alberta (yes I said Alberta, am I allowed to say that? I know they are not going into economic collapse) in new homes being built?

[libtard]

I'm currently working at Canadian Natural's Horizon site near Fort Mac. They're doubling the output of their plant from 125,000 barrels per day to 250,000. All the capital is in place for the project and it's past the 50% completion stage so its full steam ahead.

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by Stryker

tell me about it, I was suppose to go on work term this semester, and yet only 5 out of 19 students were able to find workterms.

Seriously not being able to talk of this issue really makes this form kinda useless.



granted at this point the bickering is beyond petty when people are actually being denied jobs because of the swing. This is no longer a theoretical rivalry.

its been the other way around for the last few years in Ontario, and I think that is why you are getting so many petty comments. Bad news for the oil provinces, but the others get a nice boost from low oil prices. Finally people may stop getting denied jobs in Ontario because of this. There is genuine excitement from the drop in oil prices from everyone I've spoken to. And thus continues to never ending East Vs. West competition, when oil is cheap the East reigns king, when its expensive the West does. We are now transitioning back to an Eastern dominance after 6 years of Western dominance of GDP growth, and it will show. Ontario and Quebec construction is going to pick up in the coming year, while it will slow dramatically in Alberta, Sask, and NL.

[GreaterMontréal]

TSX closes down 360 points as oil trades below $50 a barrel

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/tsx-...rrel-1.2889823

[giallo]

The Canadian dollar has dropped considerably compared to the Chinese RMB which I'm sure is due to the major decrease in the price of oil. When I moved here, it was 7.2RMB to $1CAN. Now it's 5.2RMB to $1CAN. I've never seen it this low in my nine years living here. Good for me, but shitty for any Canadian company running a factory out here.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by giallo

The Canadian dollar has dropped considerably compared to the Chinese RMB which I'm sure is due to the major decrease in the price of oil. When I moved here, it was 7.2RMB to $1CAN. Now it's 5.2RMB to $1CAN. I've never seen it this low in my nine years living here. Good for me, but shitty for any Canadian company running a factory out here.

Good reason for such companies to move production back home.

[Stryker]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Good reason for such companies to move production back home.

I'm quite certain most companies are a blend of both so no one wins.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Stryker

I'm quite certain most companies are a blend of both so no one wins.

Actually, I've been interested to learn recently that some local high tech manufacturers, while purchasing some parts from overseas, insist on doing assembly and testing here in Canada for quality control reasons.

[Xelebes]

These threads are being locked right now due to their very specific nature and the consequent opportunity for focused attacks on other member's regions. We have the Provincial Economies thread for discussing the volatility of prices and their impact on the provincial economies and we have the Mining thread for discussing the impact on drilling and mining.