What would Canadian cities look like as larger versions of themselves?

[SignalHillHiker]

I'd like to see a country based on the largest 10 cities in 1891.

If they'd all grown at close to the rate of Toronto, today they would be:

1. Montreal, Quebec: 6,809,150
2. Toronto, Ontario: 5,617,820
3. Quebec, Quebec: 1,955,790
4. Hamilton, Ontario: 1,518,380
5. Ottawa, Ontario: 1,368,774
6. Saint John, New Brunswick: 1,214,549
7. St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador: 1,209,804
8. Halifax, Nova Scotia: 1,195,236
9. London, Ontario: 991,287
10. Winnipeg, Manitoba: 794,902

(One interesting thing about doing this, Winnipeg actually did grow at more or less the same rate as Toronto. Never would have guessed that).

[bikegypsy]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

I'd like to see a country based on the largest 10 cities in 1891.

If they'd all grown at close to the rate of Toronto, today they would be:

1. Montreal, Quebec: 6,809,150
2. Toronto, Ontario: 5,617,820
3. Quebec, Quebec: 1,955,790
4. Hamilton, Ontario: 1,518,380
5. Ottawa, Ontario: 1,368,774
6. Saint John, New Brunswick: 1,214,549
7. St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador: 1,209,804
8. Halifax, Nova Scotia: 1,195,236
9. London, Ontario: 991,287
10. Winnipeg, Manitoba: 794,902

(One interesting thing about doing this, Winnipeg actually did grow at more or less the same rate as Toronto. Never would have guessed that).

The numbers for Ottawa and Winnipeg are nearly spot on.

[Innsertnamehere]

I'd love to see Halifax approach 1 million, though its odd geography might produce some infrastructure problems.

Toronto at 8 million will be cool, and with growth increasingly being focused on cities in the surrounding area, the GGH will start to feel a bit more like a singular mega city much like the US east coast, where the urban area doesn't really end between Washington and Boston.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by bikegypsy

The numbers for Ottawa and Winnipeg are nearly spot on.

Sure can't say the same for the numbers for both St Johns.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I like the way you think.

For the Maritimes, I think the ideal population sizes for the cities would be:

Halifax - 750,000
Moncton - 250,000
Saint John - 200,000
Fredericton - 150,000
Sydney - 100,000
Charlottetown - 75,000

I'd swap Saint John and Moncton's place, and make a revitalized Saint John the bigger of the two. But that's just me!

I have to echo what SignalHill said earlier--it'd be really nice if St. John's and other Atlantic cities hadn't slowed so much a century ago.

More rapid 19th-century development in Halifax would've been amazing, possibly extending the sort of built environment found in the South End to the North and West. And the look and feel of the North and West ends as they are today would've spilled off into the present-day first-ring suburbs.

But, that's all just conjecture. It is what it is.

[saffronleaf]

I'd like to see a lot of regional, smaller cities grow; it should give them the ability to become vibrant, relevant, sizable regional centers.

Cities growing to 250K:

Saulte Ste Marie and Whitehorse

Cities growing to 500K:

St. John's, Moncton, Trois-Riviere, Sherbrooke, Sudbury, Thunder Bay, Lethbridge, Red Deer, Fort McMurray, and Grand Prairie.

Cities between 600K and 800K:

Halifax, Niagara, London, Windsor, Barrie, Regina, Kelowna, Victoria


Grand River (KWC+Guelph) should have about 1.5M; Hamilton (the city alone, not including Burlington and suburbs) should have 1M; Oshawa should have 1M

The Toronto CMA should have about 11M. The Toronto CMA, Oshawa CMA and Hamilton CMA need to be combined into one CMA. The new Toronto CMA should have about 13M.

Similarly, the KWC CMA and Guelph CMA should be merged into a new Grand River CMA with about 1.5M.

So the million+ cities will look like:

Saskatoon 1M, Grand River 1.5M, Quebec City 1.5M, Winnipeg 2M, Ottawa 3M, Edmonton 3.25M, Calgary 4M, Vancouver 5M, Montreal 6M, Toronto (+Oshawa and Hamilton) 13M.

Calgary will become one of the energy capitals of the world. Montreal will be only second to Paris (in terms of importance, not necessarily population) in the francophone world, and significantly more diverse. Montreal will retain its francophone character of course, but it will be a real melting pot of the many different peoples who speak French.

Toronto will become a globally recognized hub for financial and legal services, second to NYC and London in the anglophone world. Grand River will be one of the prominent tech hubs in the world. Ottawa will become an important political capital and shed its identity as a midway point between Toronto and Montreal.

Niagara Falls will become an even more prominent tourist destination -- a type of Vegas, mixed with of course one of the greatest natural wonders, while St. Catharines will be another important city along Lake Ontario, and Niagara-on-the-Lake and areas like that become globally renowned for wineries.

Etc. etc.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

I'd swap Saint John and Moncton's place, and make a revitalized Saint John the bigger of the two. But that's just me!

I'm obviously biased, but I would have to respectfully disagree.

Saint John is on a harbour and has a more classic built form in it's downtown, but Moncton has had the momentum now for at least the last 20 years, and should be past 150k for the CMA population by the next census. SJ will be stuck around 130k, and I suspect (unless something happens) that the size difference between the two cities will continue to grow with time. I am not wishing Saint John ill luck BTW; I'm just calling it as I see it.

Moncton gets little respect from Halifax urbanists, but I think our downtown built form will improve slowly over the next 20 years, especially if the new downtown events centre gets built. This is a $110M project, that should unlock at least a similar amount of private development in the surrounding neighbourhood. There are at least three large blocks of land that have been consolidated around the proposed site with major developers like Crombie REIT and the Acquillini Group from Vancouver involved. They are just waiting for the events centre to get the green light before proceeding with their own development plans........

[saffronleaf]

Originally Posted by Chadillaccc

My ideal populations and theoretical reputations...


For reference, Canada's theoretical population in this eventuality is approximately 70 million.

Toronto: 16 million - Toronto becomes a global centre of commerce and innovation, with the 5th largest GDP output in the world, at $1 trillion. The city is seen as a bastion of architectural excellence in the west, with a 2 kilometer spire rising from the Port Lands, containing 250 000 people, the worlds first self-sustaining vertical city.

Vancouver: 9 million - Hyper-densification during the 2020s, turning most of the city proper and the Kingway and Lougheed corridors into Hong Kong-style dense urban form. A secondary centre for resource extraction in Canada, and a primary hub of foreign direct investment and information technology in North America.

Montreal: 6 million - Maintains its status as a global centre for the aerospace industry and Francophone culture in the Americas. Receives a massive uptick in international investment and tourism interest after Quebec City becomes the new UN capital.

Calgary: 4 million - Explosive growth continues indefinitely leading to a massive transformation of the inner city from 7 - 5 Monday - Friday to 24/7 destination. A global centre for resource development and innovation in energy production. The city becomes renown for the success of its massive urban redevelopment scheme started in the early 2010s.

Edmonton: 3 million - Transforms into a global centre for arts and culture. Host of the 2026 Winter Olympics leading to a swelling of civic pride and the overhauling of all sport and cultural venues in the city, along with the largest investment in infrastructure in Canadian history, including the Western Hemisphere's first Magnetic Levitation Rail system between Edmonton and Calgary.

Ottawa: 3 million - Elimination of the height restriction leads to Ottawa bursting on to the architectural scene. The overhauling of all cultural venues in the NCR lead to Ottawa winning global architecture and urban planning awards.

Winnipeg: 2.5 million - Winnipeg sees a massive population boom leading to the expansion of the city North Northeast to Winnipeg Beach, requiring the creation of a new form of rapid-rail transit system to ferry people between the historic downtown node, and the new uptown node at the lake shore. Winnipeg's reputation changes from one that is stagnant to one of national importance and interest. Along with Calgary, Winnipeg becomes a global leader in innovation of energy production.

Quebec City: 2.5 million - As the new host city of the United Nations, QC has seen massive redevelopment in all areas. The city now plays host to the tallest building east of Toronto at 320 meters, and is now home to one of the largest concentration of NGOs and Global Political groups on the planet.

Hamilton: 2 million - Hamilton becomes increasingly absorbed into the sphere of Toronto, all but becoming consumed by it. The city develops into a much south after place of residence for the people of the GTHA, raising housing prices considerably, leading to a transformation of the city skyline, and with the reputation of the city becoming increasingly known and respected in the arts and music community of the anglophone world.

Grand River (KWC): 1.5 million - Grand River starts to increasingly be absorbed into the GTHA. As the headquarters of the most successful internet-based multinational corporation, Goobing (the successor of Google and Bing), the economy of the region becomes intrinsically tied to the IT sector, leading to Grand River being known as Silicon River.

Halifax: 1.1 million - As the headquarters of the NATO Atlantic Fleet, Halifax becomes a major centre for ship-building, steel production, and ordnance production, receiving contracts from many nations around the world. Since the 2010s, Halifax's economy has been dominated by the manufacturing and international finance sectors, with a growing offshore tidal energy production sector fueling further economic growth.

Saskatoon: 1 million - Saskatoon has become the premier Potash and Uranium production logistics centre in the world, leading to the relocation of several national headquarters to the city from Toronto, Calgary, and Regina. In the late 2010s, the Mayor of the city instituted a broad-reaching inner city redevelopment scheme, leading to the creation of North America's first carbon neutral city, and the first city in the world to have 100% of all downtown energy produced by the buildings themselves.

That'd be awesome. I think with a 70M Canada, Calgary and Montreal would be bigger than you've suggested, but yeah.

[lio45]

As an outsider who's never been to any of the two... I think Saint John has better bones, but Moncton has the better (i.e. more central) location in the Maritimes. For a hub, I think the latter matters more...

Well, at least until that Sherbrooke-Maine-Saint-John freeway finally gets built. Then the roles might get reversed.

[MolsonExport]

St. John has outstanding bones in the downtown peninsula. A shame that it has stagnated for a century and a half.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

St. John has outstanding bones in the downtown peninsula. A shame that it has stagnated for a century and a half.

Ironically, stagnation at the right times is usually the reason why some cities have great bones (or at least, interesting historical cores and districts) while others don't.

[middeljohn]

Alert, Nunavut - 3 million

After striking oil at the weather station, conflict broke out between the government and the scientists who found over who has the right to own it. It turned into an international media interest once undocumented Russians began illegally entering Canada via the ice capped North Pole to start pumping oil and selling the raw oil to larger Russian companies. Despite the Russians not being particularly careful to avoid detection, this went largely unnoticed for 2 months - they had eliminated the entire staff stationed at Alert. By the time the next group of scientists, a Russian camp of over 2,000 had already formed, now with aid from the Russian military. Despite the efforts of the Canadian government to remove the Russians from our land, the settlement continued to grow, reaching 100,000 after 10 years. Now, 30 years later, there is major tension between the two countries, but Canada can't do anything about do to the UN's unwillingness to support a war on sensitive polar regions in light of continuing climate. As for Alert, the small weather station has grown to 3 million people, of which 98% are illegal aliens.

[Boris2k7]

Big 9

15.0-16.5M Toronto
08.5-09.5M Montreal
05.0-06.0M Vancouver
03.5-04.5M Calgary
03.0-04.0M Edmonton
02.5-03.5M Ottawa
02.0-03.0M Hamilton
01.5-02.5M Quebec City
01.5-02.5M Winnipeg


As for Alberta (outside of Calgary and Edmonton CMAs), I can see:

250-350K Fort McMurray
200-250K Red Deer
150-200K Lethbridge
100-150K Grand Prairie
100-150K Medicine Hat

At this point, with over 9 million people in the Calgary-Edmonton corridor, it would be nearly impossible to ignore the cries for high speed rail. The traffic along the already-busy corridor would have swelled and outgrown an already major expansion in the capacity of the QE2. There would also be a major shift in companies that do O&G service work, many of them moving further north in the province. The cost of living in Fort McMurray will gradually decrease with housing, local distribution centres and infrastructure rapidly being built out. Alberta will also be under pressure to decommission its remaining coal-fired plants the first nuclear plant will be under construction in the province.

At this point, although the order of Canada's three largest cities would remain intact (and Vancouver still have a sizable lead over Calgary and Edmonton individually), Alberta would have long since supplanted British Columbia as Canada's third most populous province.

[Beedok]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

(One interesting thing about doing this, Winnipeg actually did grow at more or less the same rate as Toronto. Never would have guessed that).

When you average it over about a century yes, but following a completely different time frame.

Also, my main reason for wanting a bigger Hamilton is to ensure the GTHA is more multi-nodal because I like multi-nodal cities.

[niccanning]

Originally Posted by middeljohn

Alert, Nunavut - 3 million

After striking oil at the weather station, conflict broke out between the government and the scientists who found over who has the right to own it. It turned into an international media interest once undocumented Russians began illegally entering Canada via the ice capped North Pole to start pumping oil and selling the raw oil to larger Russian companies. Despite the Russians not being particularly careful to avoid detection, this went largely unnoticed for 2 months - they had eliminated the entire staff stationed at Alert. By the time the next group of scientists, a Russian camp of over 2,000 had already formed, now with aid from the Russian military. Despite the efforts of the Canadian government to remove the Russians from our land, the settlement continued to grow, reaching 100,000 after 10 years. Now, 30 years later, there is major tension between the two countries, but Canada can't do anything about do to the UN's unwillingness to support a war on sensitive polar regions in light of continuing climate. As for Alert, the small weather station has grown to 3 million people, of which 98% are illegal aliens.

This would be a brilliant movie.

[KnoxfordGuy]

I saw someone on here say Fredericton at 1 million. lol. Maybe in 200 years...when Halifax overtakes it lol

[caltrane74]

For all the forgotten cities on these lists, I think Kitchener Waterloo has the most potential to firstly get over 1 million in the next 15 years or so, and then get to 1.5 million in 30 years. Depending on where the demarcation line for the CMA's is drawn.

Kitchener will actually become the most important city in Ontario at least in terms of raw growth in the future. That place will surprise us the most, no wonder its hovering below the radar right now.

[Beedok]

One thing I would love for the GTHA though would be for Lakeshord Rd from Toronto though to Burlington to be a mostly commercial midrise stretch. Preferable stretching into the Hamilton Beach area. Unfortunately I think there's a few industrial zones in the way.

[1overcosc]

I think Kingston at 500k would be amazing. It's got such great bones already.

I'd like to see an LRT on Princess Street, at-grade west of Bath Road, underground east of it, that once arriving downtown would curve south to Queens. Have a city-wide BRT system feeding into it.

Redevelop the parking lots at the NE end of downtown into a CBD with towers to allow for downtown office space while preserving all the heritage buildings surrounding it for a fascinating combination of modern and heritage.

Have the city expand north across the 401, reaching the point where the 401 roughly bisects the city. All new areas should be built with grid streets, tightly packed rowhouses & single-family homes, with distributed retail--to match the existing mid-density development that occupies so much of the city that gives it such great bones.

I can dream.

[north 42]

I would love to see Windsor at around 1.25 million. The Windsor-Detroit region would be so much more dynamic with a new Detroit rising from the ashes and a larger Windsor to better balance out the border. I truly think this region is a sleeping giant and will really start to gather steam in the next decade! As for the rest of Southwest Ontario, I would like to see...

London: 1 million
Chatham: 100,000
Sarnia: 250,000
KW: 1 million
Woodstock: 150,000
Stratford: 150,000
Goderich: 75,000
Owen Sound: 150,000
Guelph: 450,000
Brantford: 400,000
Niagara: 750,000
Hamilton: 2 million
Greater Toronto: 10 million