Winnipeg Retail

[CoryB]

^^ Sears has liquidated other high value leases, Pacific Centre in downtown Vancouver would be a prime example. It is a matter of someone willing to step in with enough cash to entice them to turn over the lease. CF really needs to start thinking about the long term and what it will do with Polo Park to keep it has the king on the Manitoba market. St Vital has long been threatening its dominance and now the Outlet collection is looking for a piece of the mindshare too.

[esquire]

Originally Posted by Jammon

I think the Polo Park store will be the last bastion of the empire. It will close only when the company announces bankruptcy. It still is a busy store despite Sears' shortcomings these days. They have a pretty loyal following up here.

Yeah, for all the failings of Sears management, the Winnipeg stores (especially Polo Park) still seem to be doing fairly well.

I can't imagine that Polo Park is close to Pacific Centre level lease rates that would make it unaffordable for Sears... besides, Polo's customer base is probably a lot closer to Sears' target market than Pacific Centre's customer base is.

Also, Polo Park appears to be doing quite well for itself... even if St. Vital surpassed it in size by adding another floor, would it really be catastrophic for Polo Park? I think Winnipeg is big enough to support two large malls. I mean, look at Edmonton... WEM is obviously the largest but Southcentre still does exceedingly well even in WEM's shadow, as do other malls there.

[pacman]

Polo Park "Still having fun, and still the one!". As long as Polo continues to modernize and doesn't end up looking past its due date it will continue to be the one. Rumours of its demise are exaggerated. I lived in St Vital for almost 10 years after growing up in the west end and Garden City and while I went to St Vital regularly I never viewed it as the place to go. Polo is simply #1 in this market and will continue to be even with a successful St Vital and Outlet Collection.

Re: Sears in Winnipeg, Polo location still decent but not on its deathbed yet, Garden City is just beyond gross now. It's actually pathetic and sad. I understand that's the "outlet/liquidation" location but it is ridiculous. They essentially close off sections of the store to shrink their footprint yet pile boxes on top of boxes in the aisles right at the friggin entrance! It's as if they're trying to put a mental barrier up for people on purpose. Close the location already because it brings the brand down even farther than it has on its own.

[Wolf13]

Originally Posted by SpongeG

its just winners with more high end, hit and miss, some visits better than others

It's pretty dismal. I stopped by today, and while there is a decent variety of shoes and deals, it lacks the prestige of the brands that Saks built it's reputation on.

That said, it could still have infinitely more product for men, even at its lower price point. However, I'm sure I could find a lot of things I like... just not as many as I should in anything with THAT name on it.


And please try harder with the design and layout...


Nike was fun though. Found some great deals.

[CoryB]

Originally Posted by esquire

Yeah, for all the failings of Sears management, the Winnipeg stores (especially Polo Park) still seem to be doing fairly well.

I can't imagine that Polo Park is close to Pacific Centre level lease rates that would make it unaffordable for Sears... besides, Polo's customer base is probably a lot closer to Sears' target market than Pacific Centre's customer base is.

Also, Polo Park appears to be doing quite well for itself... even if St. Vital surpassed it in size by adding another floor, would it really be catastrophic for Polo Park? I think Winnipeg is big enough to support two large malls. I mean, look at Edmonton... WEM is obviously the largest but Southcentre still does exceedingly well even in WEM's shadow, as do other malls there.

Re Sears Polo Park v Pacific Centre, it isn't the lease rates Sears has that are the issues in any of these locations but how desirable they are to someone else. At Pacific Centre for example Sears took over the old Eaton's lease in bankruptcy. It also used to be established practice to give flagship anchors like Sears and Eaton's a hefty discount on their lease rate as they would draw people into the mall and the landlord could recover those discounts from the smaller tenants.

In terms of St Vital eclipsing Polo, it is heavily driven by space. Currently both St Vital and Polo Park would fall into the "regional" classification. Polo Park being slightly larger, run by CF and having the reputation as the market leader they tend to attract the first to market/only in market stores. If St Vital lifted the lid on a second floor the would be the first to jump into the "super regional" classification. The added space would make them the go to location for first to market/only in market stores. Imagine if St Vital was the only mall in Winnipeg to have Apple, the Lego Store, Coach, etc.

That said if Polo were to put an expansion on to push themselves into the "super regional" category first it effectively puts an end to any aspirations of St Vital overtaking them as the market leader. The challenge is CF has a number of challenges pulling down its Winnipeg holdings currently, the biggest was the misread on Target.

I think it is a matter of time until one of the two pull the pin on an expansion to push themselves into the super regional range, it is just a question of who moves first.

[drew]

Originally Posted by CoryB

Re Sears Polo Park v Pacific Centre, it isn't the lease rates Sears has that are the issues in any of these locations but how desirable they are to someone else. At Pacific Centre for example Sears took over the old Eaton's lease in bankruptcy. It also used to be established practice to give flagship anchors like Sears and Eaton's a hefty discount on their lease rate as they would draw people into the mall and the landlord could recover those discounts from the smaller tenants.

In terms of St Vital eclipsing Polo, it is heavily driven by space. Currently both St Vital and Polo Park would fall into the "regional" classification. Polo Park being slightly larger, run by CF and having the reputation as the market leader they tend to attract the first to market/only in market stores. If St Vital lifted the lid on a second floor the would be the first to jump into the "super regional" classification. The added space would make them the go to location for first to market/only in market stores. Imagine if St Vital was the only mall in Winnipeg to have Apple, the Lego Store, Coach, etc.

That said if Polo were to put an expansion on to push themselves into the "super regional" category first it effectively puts an end to any aspirations of St Vital overtaking them as the market leader. The challenge is CF has a number of challenges pulling down its Winnipeg holdings currently, the biggest was the misread on Target.

I think it is a matter of time until one of the two pull the pin on an expansion to push themselves into the super regional range, it is just a question of who moves first.

Surface parking is maxed out at St. Vital.

It will be a big time $$ investment to expand St. Vital - as any expansion will require a parkade of some sort to be built with it.

IMO, since Polo Park is already dominate, and the new "outlet" mall just opened, there won't be any appetite anytime soon to drop hundreds of millions of dollars on that sort of retail gamble.

[optimusREIM]

Originally Posted by drew

Surface parking is maxed out at St. Vital.

It will be a big time $$ investment to expand St. Vital - as any expansion will require a parkade of some sort to be built with it.

IMO, since Polo Park is already dominate, and the new "outlet" mall just opened, there won't be any appetite anytime soon to drop hundreds of millions of dollars on that sort of retail gamble.

Maybe not now but I wouldn't be surprised if st vital started to work on some parking improvements (ie parkade) within the next several years. They could do the work incrementally to make it manageable and before long they would start on adding a second floor to one area of the building at a time. I only see this playing out over 20 years or so.

[CoryB]

^^ Polo Park is also site constrained in terms of parking unless they somehow get approval to expand the mall across Maroons and onto the old stadium site. Given that Maroons is a very local access road CF getting permission to close it would be a possibility. That said the second floor parking deck for the Scotiabank Theater and the Polo North development could add to those costs.

It is also possible that if the City pushes Polo on parking being an issue CF will push back and threaten to evict the transit operations on their property. The whole situation could get very messy.

That St Vital has given serious consideration to adding a second floor and made it public seems to suggest the possibility of either mall expanding is a strong possibility. For the size of market Polo is actually undersized as the largest mall and both Polo and St Vital know that and are trying to figure out how to play it to their advantage without a costly expansion.

One other factor to keep in mind is that in terms of proximity to desired demographics St Vital has the edge over Polo. If the two malls as is today were flipped in geographic location St Vital would not be in a position to threaten the dominance over Polo.

[esquire]

^ Polo Park doesn't strike me as being that hard up for parking... there's plenty of room along the west and south sides to build a second level of parking if need be.

I'm starting to wonder if the sheer size of a mall is being made out to mean more than it really does... it's not like being "the biggest" automatically elevates a mall's status. If St. Vital becomes top dog, it'll likely have more to do with the demographics of its catchment area plus the fact that SE Winnipeg is still growing at a fairly rapid pace.

[drew]

Originally Posted by esquire

^ Polo Park doesn't strike me as being that hard up for parking... there's plenty of room along the west and south sides to build a second level of parking if need be.

I'm starting to wonder if the sheer size of a mall is being made out to mean more than it really does... it's not like being "the biggest" automatically elevates a mall's status. If St. Vital becomes top dog, it'll likely have more to do with the demographics of its catchment area plus the fact that SE Winnipeg is still growing at a fairly rapid pace.

The parking issue is a City requirement in terms of number of spaces required based on the size of the building. However an architect will have to clarify that.

Regarding PP, I think, given the uncertainty of Sears, there can't really be much on an appetite to add more space on?

[esquire]

Originally Posted by drew

Regarding PP, I think, given the uncertainty of Sears, there can't really be much on an appetite to add more space on?

Yeah, true... filling the space vacated by Zellers was hard enough. I haven't been there in ages, has it all filled up yet?

Also, it seems that every few months another national chain is going under so there's that constant churn as well. Add to that the extra space that OC brought on stream not too far away and I can't imagine that PP would be expanding anytime soon.

St. V is a much likelier candidate for expansion IMO. Strong demographics and a growing area. Far more people around there now than in 1980 around the time the mall first opened its doors.

[Urban recluse]

Not Portage Place? LOL.

[CoryB]

Originally Posted by drew

The parking issue is a City requirement in terms of number of spaces required based on the size of the building. However an architect will have to clarify that.

Regarding PP, I think, given the uncertainty of Sears, there can't really be much on an appetite to add more space on?

Originally Posted by esquire

Yeah, true... filling the space vacated by Zellers was hard enough. I haven't been there in ages, has it all filled up yet?

Also, it seems that every few months another national chain is going under so there's that constant churn as well. Add to that the extra space that OC brought on stream not too far away and I can't imagine that PP would be expanding anytime soon.

St. V is a much likelier candidate for expansion IMO. Strong demographics and a growing area. Far more people around there now than in 1980 around the time the mall first opened its doors.

In terms of PP there are no shortage of calls CF would be making the day Sears exited operations at PP. Simons would be top of that list as they are basically waiting for that space. Nordstorms would be a second call. Whole Foods, Zara, Uniqlo and Primark would all be day one calls too.

The challenge CF had with the Zeller's space was they likely struck a deal with Target that it would not be used for an anchor in the mall but instead broken into smaller units. Target had the rights to the space and it was CF that tempted them to move outside the mall. All the spaces in the expansion were filled within the first year although it was somewhat surprising the first holiday season to see the number that were still vacant.

To some extent the size of the property limits what tenants you can approach about locating in your mall. Notice how Forever 21 and H&M are both opening their second location in Winnipeg but neither of them will be in St Vital? It is similar to how there was a major shuffle at Polo to cram in H&M. It is also likely what is holding Zara back from entering the Winnipeg market.

There are enough stories of different retailers only locating where their internal list of other retailers they want to be near to understand space is an issue. For example it is common to only find a Microsoft store in the same mall as an Apple store. If either mall pulled the pin on an expansion they could trigger a bunch of those "must be near" retailers and effectively shut the other mall out of the market for good. St Vital could likely land most of the exclusive stores from Polo if they opened an expansion, Polo on the other hand is running near capacity of what new stores they can take on.

[vjose32]

So it's CFs own fault that Target built an unnecessary and expensive new store which will remain vacant for a long time and which also helped push Target out of Canada.

Speaking of which I think Target should have stuck around, fixed their problems, maybe closed a few locations, and they would have been fine. They were going to be profitable in a few years. It's too easy to just give up.

[horrorbro123]

Kildonan Place is Opening a New Wing At Former Target Store This Sunday

[CoryB]

Originally Posted by vjose32

So it's CFs own fault that Target built an unnecessary and expensive new store which will remain vacant for a long time and which also helped push Target out of Canada.

Speaking of which I think Target should have stuck around, fixed their problems, maybe closed a few locations, and they would have been fine. They were going to be profitable in a few years. It's too easy to just give up.

Yes, CF heavily influenced Target's decision to locate north of Polo Park. I think it was CF that built the new store to Target's specs and owned the building. Target then leased it from CF, same as they would have leased the Zeller's space in the mall. With the information CF had at the time getting Target to anchor a new development was a reasonable move as they often anchor successful developments like that in the US market.

The Polo Park Target store has no influence on Target exiting operations in Canada. There were much deeper management issues that factored into things. Had Target pressured their US suppliers to either supply both side of the border or none of them they could have addressed some of the product gap. They also could have done some targeted food orders exclusive to their stores which keep certain products out of the Canadian market. It ultimately comes down to choices on how they would lose money through their startup phase in Canada.

I cannot recall the specific projection but Target did analysis on future profit/loss of Canadian operations including when break even would occur. It wasn't public knowledge at the time but they likely had early indications they were going to start having issues in their US market too. With the information they had when they decided to exit it was the absolute right decision. Had they stuck around in Canada and needed to cover those loses from US operations it could have sunk them on both sides of the border.


Now they had two points they made significant errors -- first they should have taken over running Zeller's as a going concern and learn the Canadian market rather than having stores go dark. That would mirror the entry of Walmart into Canada. The other error was the senior team meeting shortly before the launch when many people in the room already knew there were significant issues which ultimately impacted the customer experience. The corporate culture was such that even with that knowledge the insiders were not empowered to say "no we need to delay the opening".

[cheswick]

Originally Posted by CoryB

Yes, CF heavily influenced Target's decision to locate north of Polo Park. I think it was CF that built the new store to Target's specs and owned the building. Target then leased it from CF, same as they would have leased the Zeller's space in the mall. With the information CF had at the time getting Target to anchor a new development was a reasonable move as they often anchor successful developments like that in the US market.

The Polo Park Target store has no influence on Target exiting operations in Canada. There were much deeper management issues that factored into things. Had Target pressured their US suppliers to either supply both side of the border or none of them they could have addressed some of the product gap. They also could have done some targeted food orders exclusive to their stores which keep certain products out of the Canadian market. It ultimately comes down to choices on how they would lose money through their startup phase in Canada.

I cannot recall the specific projection but Target did analysis on future profit/loss of Canadian operations including when break even would occur. It wasn't public knowledge at the time but they likely had early indications they were going to start having issues in their US market too. With the information they had when they decided to exit it was the absolute right decision. Had they stuck around in Canada and needed to cover those loses from US operations it could have sunk them on both sides of the border.


Now they had two points they made significant errors -- first they should have taken over running Zeller's as a going concern and learn the Canadian market rather than having stores go dark. That would mirror the entry of Walmart into Canada. The other error was the senior team meeting shortly before the launch when many people in the room already knew there were significant issues which ultimately impacted the customer experience. The corporate culture was such that even with that knowledge the insiders were not empowered to say "no we need to delay the opening".

No, Target owned the Polo Park building. CF bought it from Target when they were liquidating.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manito...tore-1.3071423

[CoryB]

Sometimes the reporting can get muddy on these issues. CF was likely buying out the lease and other improvements Target owned on the site. They already owned the land and where the developer along with Shindico. Source.

It is also possible the deal that occurred on Target closing was CF buying out Shindico's interests in the site.

Edit: Should add if Target owned the structure and was leasing the land from CF they likely could have held out putting a lien against the building for land use payments due until it effectively could have foreclosed and seized ownership of the building.

[SpongeG]

H&M Opening in Kildonan Place on May 18

May 11, 2017 08:45 AM in News


WINNIPEG — Swedish fashion retailer H&M will open its second city location in Kildonan Place Shopping Centre on May 18.

The addition is part of the mall’s recently expanded wing, which will also house Marshalls and HomeSense (opening May 16).

...

http://www.chrisd.ca/2017/05/11/hm-k.../#.WRkVOlXyt1s

[buzzg]

I went in St. Vital for the first time in a while the other day. While they have definitely spruced up the common spaces, I still think the stores are a lot "dumpier" than at Polo. It's clear that any store in both locations, the flagship is Polo. To me, St. Vital is nowhere near competing with Polo in terms of prestige and opinion, even if they're close in size.

Even people who live near St. Vital will go to Polo if they like the selection of stores better.

Also, the outlet mall sucks. While I did find a few good deals at Under Armour and Nike, in general - the stores were bad. Saks is hideous and junky. Half the stores seemed like the crappy local places you see in Grant Park that probably buy stuff online and re-sell it. I get that it's kind of an outlet mall, but a lot of the stores weren't actually outlets (or not that good deals) but the design of them was horrible - apart from the sign it was just plain walls and racks. It also was a lot smaller than I expected and parking/traffic in the lot a nightmare, it was gridlock. I actually parked in a construction ditch (I drive a truck) because after 20 minutes looking for a spot I gave up. Compared to Polo or St. Vital which are major transit hubs - 99% of the people at the outlets have to drive there.