Amazon HQ2 thread

[mhays]

Chicago ought to rank higher. Even without the reported poking around, it seems like the most obvious contender to me....big open centralized, transit-proximate spaces where it would be easy to build the desired space, moderate cost of living...

[Kenmore]

Originally Posted by 10023

Quite a lot of movement recently though. I’m currently seeing this:

Atlanta - 3/1
Austin - 7/1
Boston - 7/1
Toronto - 7/1
NYC - 14/1
Pittsburgh - 14/1
Portland - 14/1
DC - 14/1
Chicago - 16/1
Philly - 16/1
Rochester - 16/1
San Jose - 18/1
Dallas - 20/1
Denver - 20/1
Miami - 20/1


I wonder how liquid this betting is. Portland seems impossible.

almost certainly not very

[Steely Dan]

how does betting like this work?

how are the contestants defined? city proper? metro area? by state?

if amazon chooses newark, does an NYC bet still pay-off?

[jd3189]

Originally Posted by skyscraperpage17

Anything's possble, but I don't see the benefit of having a balkanized HQ to that extent, even for a company that's Amazon's size. There are benefits to having operations in a central locations.

As far as Miami, the main thing that eliminates it is the risk of Hurricanes IMO.

I don't see how hurricanes are that much of an issue. After all, Irma was the first direct hit in Florida for a while. There is a threat yearly but it's not consistent. NYC and Houston should be eliminated as well if that's the case. Plus, just with earthquakes, buildings can be built to withstand hurricanes. Miami will suffer from sea level rise but it's not the only major city that will suffer badly.

Amazon should still pursue a second HQ, but I feel that regional HQs could help other metros economically. Not every company or industry has to be solely based in one or two cities, especially when those same cities are becoming unaffordable.

[10023]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

how does betting like this work?

how are the contestants defined? city proper? metro area? by state?

if amazon chooses newark, does an NYC bet still pay-off?

That’s an excellent question.

My assumption would be that if they submitted separate bids in response to the RFP, then the answer is “no”. But you would need to ask your bookie.

I put £5 on Chicago just for fun.

[10023]

Originally Posted by jd3189

I don't see how hurricanes are that much of an issue. After all, Irma was the first direct hit in Florida for a while. There is a threat yearly but it's not consistent. NYC and Houston should be eliminated as well if that's the case. Plus, just with earthquakes, buildings can be built to withstand hurricanes. Miami will suffer from sea level rise but it's not the only major city that will suffer badly.

Amazon should still pursue a second HQ, but I feel that regional HQs could help other metros economically. Not every company or industry has to be solely based in one or two cities, especially when those same cities are becoming unaffordable.

It’s very hard to work at a company and be away from HQ if you want to really advance. Certain functions just have to be centralized, and then you have a bunch of marketing/sales offices.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by mhays

Chicago ought to rank higher. Even without the reported poking around, it seems like the most obvious contender to me....big open centralized, transit-proximate spaces where it would be easy to build the desired space, moderate cost of living...

TBH, my only reason for discounting Chicago is that I don't think they'll choose a city that provides a flashier address than the Seattle HQ1. If they truly want to keep two HQs as they have claimed, then I think management in Seattle should see a lot of downside to having the HQ2 in a major media center, which risks it being defaulted to as the official mouth piece for the company.

[mhays]

That's an interesting idea. I suspect it wouldn't be a big worry though.

[maru2501]

hadn't thought of that

yeah hard to be number 2 when you have an MLS stadium with your name on it on the campus

[skyscraperpage17]

Yet another list for Amazon HQ2 is below.

Some of the usual suspects (Atlanta, Texas cities, DC) rank near the top, but surprisingly, cities such as Nashville and Detroit rank just as well as, or even better than cities such as Philly, Chicago and Boston.

Criteria is based on:

*Population
*Stability
*Talent
*Location

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/20/thes...dquarters.html

[skyscraper]

Originally Posted by skyscraperpage17

Yet another list for Amazon HQ2 is below.

Some of the usual suspects (Atlanta, Texas cities, DC) rank near the top, but surprisingly, cities such as Nashville and Detroit rank just as well as, or even better than cities such as Philly, Chicago and Boston.

Criteria is based on:

*Population
*Stability
*Talent
*Location

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/20/thes...dquarters.html

OK, look, there has been a lot, I mean a *lot* of speculation about where HQ2 is going to land. Just trying to predict the short list has become something of a cottage industry. But as I always say, there are no experts on the future. Amazon has set out their initial criteria, but in reviewing the proposals, they could see something from some city that doesn't meet those criteria that they hadn't thought of, and just call an audible and change their whole approach. Who knows. They're free to do whatever they want. I don't think it's constructive for amateur bookmakers to try to handicap this race. I want Philly to win, I think Philly has the best combination of criteria that Amazon- and for that matter any big company - could want. But so do a lot of cities. It's subjective for those of us not working for Amazon analyzing the proposals. Why subject ourselves to this kind of speculation and city v city comparisons, when it comes down to what Amazon wants, which they might not even be aware of until they've analyzed the proposals?
Cincinnati, just to mention a smaller city that could surprise, might end up winning for reasons no one on this board is aware of. I hope not, I hope Amazon sticks to what they have set out as their criteria, because I think Philly makes a very short list of 2-3 cities, with a seriously decent shot at winning. But we have all endured rejection, we steel ourselves against it, and hope for the next thing if that happens.
So chill out. It's out of our hands, it's up to Amazon now. What does all this speculation get us but anxiety, jealousy, and unconstructive city v city comparisons.

[skyscraperpage17]

Originally Posted by skyscraper

...What does all this speculation get us...

Speaking for myself, it's something to both pass the time and exercise the mind. With it being the end of the year, development news has slowed down. So there's not much else to talk about.

[chicubs111]

Any ratings by CNBC are completely crazy whoever is writing those articles should question his/her logic... They put areas like Raleigh over Chicago and NYC.. in terms of Talent..lol... its completely ridiculous and laughable honestly

[C.]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

TBH, my only reason for discounting Chicago is that I don't think they'll choose a city that provides a flashier address than the Seattle HQ1. If they truly want to keep two HQs as they have claimed, then I think management in Seattle should see a lot of downside to having the HQ2 in a major media center, which risks it being defaulted to as the official mouth piece for the company.

hah. interesting perspective. I think Newark just jumped a couple spots if this is indeed the case.

[bnk]

Originally Posted by 10023

That’s an excellent question.

My assumption would be that if they submitted separate bids in response to the RFP, then the answer is “no”. But you would need to ask your bookie.

I put £5 on Chicago just for fun.

5 pounds might be fun to play with but it wouldn't buy you dinner and you know it.


I remember when Chicago was 50-1 than 25-1! I wish I bought in than.

I still think 16-1 would be a good ROI. Chicago can't in reality be less than 1-8 or 1-6.

So I would like to jump now before they go down to 1-12. Hell I might even throw a hundred at Dallas at 20-1 as additional hedge bet in the process.

Anyway I want to put on Chicago $ 1000 in at 16-1 soon.

But I have some additional questions. What if I used liquid "couch money" like $20,000 what are the tax implication if I win and what is the best way to transfer the money. At present I don't have a PayPal account if you believe it. I bet small time college football and play fantasy football when I want to on Draft Kings.

Here I'm putting some sweat equity into it. If your going to go down that go down big or don't play. Go big or stay home.


Anyway what are my tax expectations and how do I remove from the said account. Could I use my bank card or American express?

Also is there a way to short sell Atlanta right now to hedge my bet a bit. They are way oversold IMO.

If these questions are too sensitive to answer to the lay public than please PM me soon I would like to transfer my monies by tomorrow.

Thanks in advance.

[bnk]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

how does betting like this work?

how are the contestants defined? city proper? metro area? by state?

if amazon chooses newark, does an NYC bet still pay-off?

Originally Posted by 10023

That’s an excellent question.

My assumption would be that if they submitted separate bids in response to the RFP, then the answer is “no”. But you would need to ask your bookie.

I put £5 on Chicago just for fun.

I'm almost sure by MSA and in NJ's case it could be by state. So the best answer is Metro area except for NJ which I don't know the answer to. If NJ is going to pony up a trillion dollars in tax money than NJ would win. But as you see from the list NJ is not even a contender. The betting acceptor would have to clear the rules in that odd case.

[a very long weekend]

Amazon people recently seen touring the massive Finkl Steel site in Chicago.

[maru2501]

Sterling Bay just bought a USL soccer team to put in the stadium it offered to put Amazon's name on... hmmm

[ithakas]

Originally Posted by maru2501

Sterling Bay just bought a USL soccer team to put in the stadium it offered to put Amazon's name on... hmmm

Soccer victory cigar?

[a very long weekend]

Not to jump the gun or jinx anything, but I predicted Chicago the very first day H2Q was announced. Makes so much sense - great transportation, loads of great amenities for workers and managers, affordable cost of living, loads of space to grow, a pliable mayor/governor willing to give up the store, a deep talent pool, easy to attract people to, nation's best air connections, and just a certain energy about the place.