Quote:
Originally Posted by Xelebes
Probabilities from the periods there were six teams (non-logarithmic):
Montreal Canadiens: 0.001 (11 champs, 26 seasons)
Boston Bruins: 0.009 (26 seasons)
New York Rangers: 0.010 (25 seasons)
Toronto Maple Leafs: 0.014 (9 champs, 26 seasons)
Chicago Blackhawks: 0.052 (1 champ, 25 seasons)
Detroit Red Wings: 0.178 (5 champs, 25 seasons)
Montreal Maroons: 0.833 (1 season)
Ottawa Senators: 0.833 (1 season)
Hamilton Tigers: 0.833 (1 season)
The reason why NYR is so high on the list is due to the combinations with winning cause the chances to improve. But win too much like the Canadiens and the odds of winning overwhelm the combinations.
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And if the combinatorics leaves things a bit wonky, the straight calculation (using playoff results and regular season seeding):
1. Montreal Canadiens -115.569
2. Boston Bruins -91.976
3. Detroit Red Wings -86.675
4. Toronto Maple Leafs -78.559
5. Chicago Blackhawks -76.439
6. New York Rangers -75.080
7. Philadelphia Flyers -59.323
8. Pittsburgh Penguins -51.365
9. St. Louis Blues -47.039
10. Dallas Stars -44.754
11. Buffalo Sabres -38.209
12. Edmonton Oilers -37.791
13. New York Islanders -36.784
14. New Jersey Devils -36.500
15. Los Angeles Kings -35.977
16. Colorado Avalanche -35.129
17. Washington Capitals -34.814
18. Calgary Flames -33.945
19. Vancouver Canucks -31.646
20. San Jose Sharks -28.132
21. Anaheim Ducks -24.388
22. Ottawa Senators -21.770
23. Carolina Hurricanes -20.342
24. Arizona Coyotes -18.541
25. Tampa Bay Lightning -16.579
26. Nashville Predators -14.311
27. Minnesota Wild -11.559
28. Florida Panthers -10.641
29. Winnipeg Jets -5.069
30. Columbus Blue Jackets -4.928