Amazon HQ2 thread

[10023]

Originally Posted by CIA

Economics is not my specialty, and I'm having trouble to separate facts from opinion at times. Can we start posting links for further information to backup some of the statements that are being made?

Here's one I found which suggests that for every dollar spent by a hospital, it creates 2.3 times the amount in additional business activity as an economic multiple. That sounds like a good multiplier to me, and it's in inline with my what I've been told in professional circulars. If I have it all wrong or am missing a critical element, please post links to additional information on the subject as I would like to read more on this topic.

Every dollar spent in an economy has a multiplier effect. I took this conversation to be about things that have an outsized multiplier effect. Things that attract spending or draw value from outside of the local area obviously have a much greater economic impact than services sold locally.

[C.]

Originally Posted by skyscraperpage17

It's been mentioned in a couple news articles that the shortlist will be announced in early December.

Sweet! We should take a poll on which cities will make the cut.

[C.]

Originally Posted by mhays

CIA, I can't open your link. But generally those "studies" are done with an agenda, and they typically count the whole payroll, tax base, etc., as net addition to the region, which it clearly isn't. The 2.3x multiplier sounds like they're counting everything. It's typically very dishonest, meant for a gullible electorate.

It's working on my end, but it's unimportant. Just something really quick I found on Google. http://www.aha.org/content/00-10/2010econcontrib.pdf

Obviously the quality of the study counts, but I do believe it's possible for unbiased research is possible without pushing an agenda. (I know it's hard to believe these days with all the politics out there, but they exist.)

I would be personally interested in reputable academic studies on economic multiples for various industries, including hospitals. Does any SSPers have an economic background or interest in the area that can share this type of information?

[C.]

Originally Posted by 10023

Every dollar spent in an economy has a multiplier effect. I took this conversation to be about things that have an outsized multiplier effect. Things that attract spending or draw value from outside of the local area obviously have a much greater economic impact than services sold locally.

It's something I've heard before, that hospitals do have an large economic multiplier relative to other industries. But I don't know if that's correct, so I would be interested in reading reputable articles and research on this topic.

[mhays]

Originally Posted by Sun Belt

Usually a new hospital means just that, additional beds, more nurses, more doctors, more patients paying with insurance money or government money.

We are an aging population. We're constantly opening and expanding hospitals everywhere.

I don't know how to make this simpler for you, but I'll try.

Do hospitals make people age?

No. People age because time is passing. The hospital serves people who were already aging.

If there was no new hospital, they'd be getting the same services. They'd simply do it at locations that already existed.

Those already-existing places would do more business as a result. Because of that, they'd employ more people. They'd draw that insurance and government money.

[Sun Belt]

Originally Posted by mhays

I don't know how to make this simpler for you, but I'll try.

Do hospitals make people age?

No. People age because time is passing. The hospital serves people who were already aging.

If there was no new hospital, they'd be getting the same services. They'd simply do it at locations that already existed.

Those already-existing places would do more business as a result. Because of that, they'd employ more people. They'd draw that insurance and government money.

'Do hospitals make people age?' How did you arrive to that?


Those already existing places would not do more business if they're already at capacity. The wait times to receive service would just grow longer and the staff would become overworked while the quality of care decreases. You can only squeeze so many doctors in the ER.

Hospitals at capacity require additional hospitals and staff to service the growing demand for those services.

[IrishIllini]

How did we end up talking about hospitals and their multiplier effect?

[C.]

Originally Posted by IrishIllini

How did we end up talking about hospitals and their multiplier effect?

It's not as big of a jump as it sounds at first. We were talking about the multiple effect that Amazon HQ2 will have on the selected city. I think the consensus is we're going to witness an impressive boost, even larger than the direct impact from the 50,000 Amazon employees. We were talking about other industries that may provide a boost, and we're in a spirited debate about hospitals right now.

If anyone has an economics background and can point to some research on this topic, I would love to read more up on the multiplier effect and which industries provide the most economic spin offs.

[C.]

I'm going to state an obvious one (maybe)... military bases. It seems these were the lifeblood for many communities. During BRAC in the 90s, there were man communities that were destroyed when the base closed. This tells me the multiplier effect was probably crazy high. Another one may be state/federal prisons... all of the food, supplies, security staff, social workers, etc are brought into a smaller community that would have otherwise never been there. I remember there was a proposal to close a state prison in a small town where I lived due to declining prison population, that chamber of commerce came out swinging! So I assume prisons also have a very high multiplier.

[C.]

Originally Posted by skyscraperpage17

It's been mentioned in a couple news articles that the shortlist will be announced in early December.

10 Shortlist predictions

Philly
Newark
NYC (although they will not be ultimately selected)
Boston
DC
Atlanta
Austin
DFW
Denver
Chicago


A few longshot predictions

San Diego, Des Moines, Houston, Louisiana, Alberta, Tampa-St. Pete, and Montreal

[IrishIllini]

Originally Posted by CIA

It's not as big of a jump as it sounds at first. We were talking about the multiple effect that Amazon HQ2 will have on the selected city. I think the consensus is we're going to witness an impressive boost, even larger than the direct impact from the 50,000 Amazon employees. We were talking about other industries that may provide a boost, and we're in a spirited debate about hospitals right now.

If anyone has an economics background and can point to some research on this topic, I would love to read more up on the multiplier effect and which industries provide the most economic spin offs.

Amazon will likely have a massive impact, yeah. TBH that's why I can't see it going to Dallas, Austin, Atlanta...those places are already having growing pains. Still standing by Chicago & Philadelphia as the two best options.

[the urban politician]

Originally Posted by CIA

10 Shortlist predictions

Philly
Newark
NYC (although they will not be ultimately selected)
Boston
DC
Atlanta
Austin
DFW
Denver
Chicago


A few longshot predictions

San Diego, Des Moines, Houston, Louisiana, Alberta, Tampa-St. Pete, and Montreal

Not a very short shortlist

[C.]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

Not a very short shortlist

Trying to cover my bases!

there is something like 230+ bidders, so it's very possible Amazon will announce a shortlist of 10 or more. Again, we should know in a months time when they announce the shortlist mid December.

[SteveD]

Just for kicks and with no insider knowledge or info...just my gut feeling...

Short list in no particular order:

Atlanta
Chicago
Philadelphia

[C.]

Originally Posted by IrishIllini

Amazon will likely have a massive impact, yeah. TBH that's why I can't see it going to Dallas, Austin, Atlanta...those places are already having growing pains. Still standing by Chicago & Philadelphia as the two best options.

Agreed! Some cities will be victims of their own success. I would add NYC and Boston to the list of cities with growing pains.

The only reason why I don't rank Chicago higher is due to their long-term fiscal health of the city and State. Fiscal health is one of the main rating factors and was implied how important it is throughout the RFQ.

[the urban politician]

Originally Posted by CIA

The only reason why I don't rank Chicago higher is due to their long-term fiscal health of the city and State. Fiscal health is one of the main rating factors and was implied how important it is throughout the RFQ.

Yeah, you figure that would motivate the Illinois legislature to take drastic action, but to the contrary...

They fall in line like morons to House Speaker Mike Madigan, who is one of the most corrupt people in America today. Plus, the Illinois Supreme Court has utterly failed in the role of acting as the legitimate third branch of Government that checks the other two. They repeatedly uphold conditions (despite voter referendums) that keep Madigan in power. They are all buddies.

Sad state of affairs. While the rest of America has grown up, Illinois is still doing 19th century, third world kind of shit when it comes to corruption...

[IrishIllini]

Originally Posted by CIA

Agreed! Some cities will be victims of their own success. I would add NYC and Boston to the list of cities with growing pains.

The only reason why I don't rank Chicago higher is due to their long-term fiscal health of the city and State. Fiscal health is one of the main rating factors and was implied how important it is throughout the RFQ.

Yes, Illinois has a spending problem, but we're not alone! NY, KS, SC, NV, CT, MA, HI, KY, RI, AK, TX, CO, WA, PA, NJ, and MN are all good company

https://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/comp...ding_2018bH0an

[James Bond Agent 007]

Look at it this way: If Amazon goes to Chicago, it'll be a big boost to Illinois' fiscal health.

[IrishIllini]

Originally Posted by James Bond Agent 007

Look at it this way: If Amazon goes to Chicago, it'll be a big boost to Illinois' fiscal health.

It'd be a welcomed boost, but it's not absolutely critical that Chicago get Amazon.

[Sun Belt]

Is it safe to say that Canadians cities have been ruled out?

Not to take anything away from Toronto and Montreal, both cities meet Amazon's criteria. I think this would be a public relations nightmare for Amazon to have held this contest publicly only to move to a foreign city.