HomeDiagramsDatabaseMapsForum About
     

Go Back   SkyscraperPage Forum > Regional Sections > Canada


Reply

 
Thread Tools Display Modes
     
     
  #81  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2008, 10:21 PM
Rico Rommheim's Avatar
Rico Rommheim Rico Rommheim is online now
Look at me!
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: City of Bagels
Posts: 13,575
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ayreonaut View Post
Whichever city JFJ moves to, because millions of followers will join him.
Yes all the way from wealthy, cable-owning mongolia!
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #82  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2008, 10:29 PM
Cambridgite
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Quote:
Originally Posted by wild wild west View Post
Depending on how birth rates go in the future, it's quite possible the answer would be "none of the above". However, if I were a betting man I'd say Hamilton. The big advantage Hamilton has over the others is that its proximity to the GTA means that when tough times hit, its residents can still find work in the GTA and thus ride out economic difficulties better than the others.
Hamilton's downfall is its existing industrial base and image issues, but its location allows it to diversify, whereas more isolated places might not have that luxury. They can definitely play on McMaster as a strength as they're already starting to do. Being a real city, they can also tap into creative industries like media (think of the filming of Four Brothers and The Hulk) and attract the creative class to Hamilton as a cheaper and unique alternative to urban living in overpriced Toronto. I don't think Hamilton's future rests as a bedroom community. It's a fairly large city and although they're becoming increasingly intertwined with the Western GTA, I think it will still evolve into a city of business as long as people continue to move there. I also saw a chart showing the CMAs with the highest % of foreign-born residents. Hamilton was 3rd, between Vancouver and Kitchener. That's another big factor that will determine future growth.

So my vote is on Hamilton for being the next CMA to reach a million. Not sure who will be the next out of Quebec City and Winnipeg, but by the time any of these places reaches a million, Kitchener is likely to have closed the gap by a significant margin (uh oh, hope I haven't opened up a can of worms ).
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #83  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2008, 10:39 PM
Ayreonaut's Avatar
Ayreonaut Ayreonaut is offline
EVDS MPlan Grad
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Canmore, AB
Posts: 11,980
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rico Rommheim View Post
Yes all the way from wealthy, cable-owning mongolia!
He's the sole reason for Toronto's immigration growth you know.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #84  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2008, 10:57 PM
Rico Rommheim's Avatar
Rico Rommheim Rico Rommheim is online now
Look at me!
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: City of Bagels
Posts: 13,575
I was just about to say that!
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #85  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2008, 11:20 PM
graupner's Avatar
graupner graupner is offline
Headquarter: Montreal
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Montreal
Posts: 1,414
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambridgite View Post
Hamilton's downfall is its existing industrial base and image issues, but its location allows it to diversify, whereas more isolated places might not have that luxury. They can definitely play on McMaster as a strength as they're already starting to do. Being a real city, they can also tap into creative industries like media (think of the filming of Four Brothers and The Hulk) and attract the creative class to Hamilton as a cheaper and unique alternative to urban living in overpriced Toronto. I don't think Hamilton's future rests as a bedroom community. It's a fairly large city and although they're becoming increasingly intertwined with the Western GTA, I think it will still evolve into a city of business as long as people continue to move there. I also saw a chart showing the CMAs with the highest % of foreign-born residents. Hamilton was 3rd, between Vancouver and Kitchener. That's another big factor that will determine future growth.

So my vote is on Hamilton for being the next CMA to reach a million. Not sure who will be the next out of Quebec City and Winnipeg, but by the time any of these places reaches a million, Kitchener is likely to have closed the gap by a significant margin (uh oh, hope I haven't opened up a can of worms ).

Everything you guys predict as a future growth pattern for Hamilton is already happening in Quebec! Hamilton has a big catch up to do if it wants to catch quebec, on many levels.
While the industrial struggling is not over yet in Hamilton, the ' creative class' is already very strong in Qc, the biotech sector is booming, the financial sector too, and the media ( music, film, video games) sector is gaining more jobs every day. There's about 5 office towers under construction in Quebec and the vacancy rate dropped to an all time low of about 2.6% .

Add to this a tourism industry that make Hamilton look like a no mans land, Quebec is where it's at. Hamilton doesn't really have any landmark or incredible things to attract people. No offense, but it's more a provincial industrial town like Trois-Rivières than a major pole like Quebec is. Its attraction power compared to Quebec is bleak.

From anytime between 2000 and 2007, Quebec was the third most visited destination in Canada, with an average of 7 millions tourists, about 4 times Hamilton's (1.7 million tourists) .


The point is that while Hamilton is still wondering ' What do we do now that industry is dying ???'
Quebec got the point 5 years ago!

Last edited by graupner; Feb 10, 2008 at 2:34 AM.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #86  
Old Posted Feb 10, 2008, 12:01 AM
vid's Avatar
vid vid is offline
I am a typical
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Thunder Bay
Posts: 41,172
To compare, Thunder Bay gets 1.2 million visitors a year. Compared to Hamilton, we're either doing really good or they are really weak. (Or someone's statistics are wrong, also a possibility.)

http://www.thunderbay.ca/docs/news/4615.pdf (pg 16)
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #87  
Old Posted Feb 10, 2008, 12:17 AM
graupner's Avatar
graupner graupner is offline
Headquarter: Montreal
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Montreal
Posts: 1,414
Quote:
Originally Posted by vid View Post
To compare, Thunder Bay gets 1.2 million visitors a year. Compared to Hamilton, we're either doing really good or they are really weak. (Or someone's statistics are wrong, also a possibility.)

http://www.thunderbay.ca/docs/news/4615.pdf (pg 16)
visitors and tourists are different vid.
The definition of a tourist is someone who traveled at least 80km, stayed at least 24 hours and used a private hotel to sleep.
an excursionist is someone who traveled less than 80km, stayed less than 24hours and didn't use an hotel.
It could be someone who come to watch a movie from the suburb! or to buy a fridge in an appliance store!

Visistors are the sum of both tourists and excursionist.
To compare, Quebec received about 23 millions visitors in 2004 !
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #88  
Old Posted Feb 10, 2008, 12:21 AM
vid's Avatar
vid vid is offline
I am a typical
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Thunder Bay
Posts: 41,172
Now that makes more sense.

I should have figured the city would do something tricky. (Our bus ridership numbers count transfer pass users as separate customers, so if you transfer three times, you count as four people!!)
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #89  
Old Posted Feb 10, 2008, 12:44 AM
flar's Avatar
flar flar is offline
..........
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Southwestern Ontario
Posts: 15,170
Another thing that has happened over the last few decades is companies have left their aging Hamilton facilities and built in a more attractive location along the 403/QEW which happens to be in Burlington. Along with that, plenty of new industry has located in Burlington as well. Burlington and Hamilton are very much intertwined which is why Hamilton's unemployment is low. When it comes to statistics, Hamilton by itself has lost a ton of industry, but the Greater Hamilton area has held fairly steady.
__________________
RECENT PHOTOS:
TORONTOSAN FRANCISCO ROCHESTER, NYHAMILTONGODERICH, ON WHEATLEY, ONCOBOURG, ONLAS VEGASLOS ANGELES
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #90  
Old Posted Feb 10, 2008, 5:19 AM
Waterlooson's Avatar
Waterlooson Waterlooson is offline
mañana is my busiest day
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Los Cabos&BC
Posts: 2,146
My prediction is for Hamilton to reach 1 million first... because Ontario's "places to grow" policy is forcing growth to outlying areas like never before.... however, I have to admit that I don't know if "places to grow" restricts Hamilton's sprawl like it will the Toronto CMA.... "places to grow" should help Hamilton's brownfield redevelopment.

Sure Hamilton's industrial base has been getting hard hit... yet its CMA continues to grow... albeit at a lower rate. Ontario's industries were also hard hit in the 1980's with globalization.... and the pop. of the golden horseshoe greatly increased.... including the Hamilton CMA.

Last edited by Waterlooson; Feb 11, 2008 at 1:54 AM.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #91  
Old Posted Feb 10, 2008, 7:14 AM
WaterlooInvestor WaterlooInvestor is offline
BANNED
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 1,974
Don't get me wrong: Hamilton definitely has a possibility to reach 1 million first, however there are two key issues I've mentioned which haven't been properly addressed.

1) The possibility the greenbelt constrains growth. This is shown in Halton Region's Best Planning Estimates April 2007 Research Paper. Although Halton Region is expected to boom over the coming years, Burlington's population is expected to remain relatively flat.

http://www.milton.ca/ecodev/best_planning_estimates.pdf





2) Extremely slow growth in the City of Hamilton, in fact this year the population estimate actually declined. Normally this wouldn't matter too much (a good example would be how the City of Toronto grew slowly from 2001-06 yet the CMA boomed), however if Burlington is slowing down then the City of Hamilton needs to pick up the slack. So far this hasn't happened.

                              2002       2003       2004       2005       2006       2007 
Hamilton 514,551 517,980 519,669 520,243 520,503 519,741

*************************

If someone can make a strong case why these issues don't matter, then I do think Hamilton will be the next CMA to hit 1 million. I just haven't seen those arguments yet.

*************************
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #92  
Old Posted Feb 10, 2008, 8:03 AM
Cambridgite
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Good points, WaterlooInvestor. Since Hamilton-Burlington is significantly constrained by the greenbelt (and Burlington isn't projected to grow much), that leaves most of the CMA growth to happen via intensification. No doubt Hamilton has lots of underused land to be intensified, but by looking at the recent population stats for the City of Hamilton, I don't think that's presently happening in any significant way. And considering those stats showing stagnation and decline are for the political entity of Hamilton, which includes many suburban areas, I have to wonder what kind of population change that amounts to in the lower city.

Unless significant changes start happening for the Hamilton lower city or the greenbelt gets lifted (unlikely), I'm going to take my vote away from Hamilton. I'm not sure whether Quebec City or Winnipeg should get it. Winnipeg is more of an immigrant magnet than Quebec City from my understanding, so I think I'll go with Winnipeg.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #93  
Old Posted Feb 10, 2008, 10:27 AM
flar's Avatar
flar flar is offline
..........
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Southwestern Ontario
Posts: 15,170
It's pretty difficult to predict what effect the greenbelt will have since it isn't yet a factor with current development. Nor should much stock be put on extrapolations of past growth trends considering that situations are rapidly changing. Burlington is boxed in by the Greenbelt more than any other city since the escarpment runs almost exactly along the extent of its current developed area. On the escarpment above Burlington is Waterdown whose population is set to double over the next 5-10 years. On the south of Hamilton there is still plenty of empty space designated by the Greenbelt plan. That growth area is now serviced by two new highways, Red Hill Valley completed this year and the Highway 6 bypass completed about three years ago. Both of these are connected to the Linc, 403 and QEW forming a ring around Hamilton/Burlington with spurs. Along with McMaster Innovation Park (brownfield) the new highways open up the first significant employment lands (Aerotropolis and Glanbrook) in Hamilton since the area along the QEW in Stoney Creek. These will be some of the most attractive greenfields to develop in the Golden Horsehoe. As for the lower city, the east end has seen population declines in recent years while the west (including downtown) has seen small gains. It's impossible to tell to what extent gentrification will occur and what effect it will have on population. It's occuring quite rapidly now, but oftentimes a couple might move in where a family once lived. Either way, Hamilton has a good chance for solid growth after years of decline, as long as the local leadership doesn't drop the ball (which is also a good possiblity).
__________________
RECENT PHOTOS:
TORONTOSAN FRANCISCO ROCHESTER, NYHAMILTONGODERICH, ON WHEATLEY, ONCOBOURG, ONLAS VEGASLOS ANGELES
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #94  
Old Posted Feb 10, 2008, 3:30 PM
SteelTown's Avatar
SteelTown SteelTown is offline
It's Hammer Time
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Hamilton
Posts: 19,872
If you look at the map you'll see the Provincial government gave plenty of greenland for Hamilton to fill up. Look at the Hamilton Mountain area still plenty of that can be filled up especially East Stoney Creek Mountain which should boom because of the completion of the Red Hill Creek Expressway. I think I read that it'll probably take another 20 or so years to fill up all the greenland provided under the Greenbelt legislation. For example I mentioned already that Waterdown is expecting nearly 9,000 residents in the short term.

The best way to help attract increase population to the lower end of Hamilton is to go with LRT from McMaster to Eastgate. Which is what Metrolinx seems determined to do with the $300 million rapid transit provided to Hamilton from the provincial government.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #95  
Old Posted Feb 10, 2008, 4:17 PM
Waterlooson's Avatar
Waterlooson Waterlooson is offline
mañana is my busiest day
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Los Cabos&BC
Posts: 2,146
All great comments about Hamilton.... interesting.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #96  
Old Posted Feb 10, 2008, 5:20 PM
caltrane74's Avatar
caltrane74 caltrane74 is offline
gettin' rich!
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Toronto
Posts: 34,167
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordMandeep View Post
I saw GTA increases One million before those cities reach one million.


That would be an interesting battle...
Not much of a battle, the GTA will add a million in less than 10 years. There is no way Hamilton gets to a million in 10 years.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #97  
Old Posted Feb 10, 2008, 5:28 PM
LordMandeep LordMandeep is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Toronto
Posts: 2,372
I did the math



a min of 9 or so years with 110,000 a year and a max of 13 years with 80,000 people a year.

For the GTA to jump another million.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #98  
Old Posted Feb 10, 2008, 5:40 PM
caltrane74's Avatar
caltrane74 caltrane74 is offline
gettin' rich!
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Toronto
Posts: 34,167
Point is, even in 20 years hamilton will still be nowhere close to a million. - And neither will QC or Winterpeg.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #99  
Old Posted Feb 10, 2008, 5:56 PM
Nicko999's Avatar
Nicko999 Nicko999 is offline
Go Chiefs!
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Montreal
Posts: 19,006
Quote:
Originally Posted by caltrane74 View Post
Point is, even in 20 years hamilton will still be nowhere close to a million. - And neither will QC or Winterpeg.
And what would call Winnipeg during summer, Summerpeg?
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #100  
Old Posted Feb 10, 2008, 5:57 PM
Greco Roman Greco Roman is offline
Movin' on up
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Edmonton
Posts: 3,449
Quote:
Originally Posted by caltrane74 View Post
Point is, even in 20 years hamilton will still be nowhere close to a million. - And neither will QC or Winterpeg.
It's all relative, and in all honesty, no one here is a fortune teller. Anything can happen.

And the name is Winnipeg, thanks.
Reply With Quote
     
     
This discussion thread continues

Use the page links to the lower-right to go to the next page for additional posts
 
 
Reply

Go Back   SkyscraperPage Forum > Regional Sections > Canada
Forum Jump


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Forum Jump


All times are GMT. The time now is 2:38 PM.

     
SkyscraperPage.com - Archive - Privacy Statement - Top

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.