Winnipeg CMA Population in 5 Years: Predictions

Jets4Life · #1 Posted **Mar 17, 2009, 4:51 AM**

According to population projections posted by Pegger5, the population of the Winnipeg CMA in 2008 was approximately 714,800. By mid 2013, it is expected to pass the 750,000 mark. What is your take on this? Do you think it will exceed projections or fall short?

The reasons I think it will exceed projections, is Winnipeg's diversiied economy is weathering the economic storm better than any large Canadian city, the cost of living and housing pricing are among the lowest in any Canadian centre over 100,000 people. The vacancy rate is still very low, meaning that there will be a need to construct new homes. Finally, there are infrastructure improvements such as Centreport, the new Airport Terminal, Bus Station, expansion of the University of Winnipeg, and construction of the new Winnipeg Stadium.

Additionally there have been preliminary talks about building a smaller arena (5500-7000 seats) that would suit entertainment acts deemed to small for the MTS Centre, and possibly suited for a WHL team. I have never been more optimistic about my hometown. I think the teens (?) 2010-19 will be a boom period for the city and province.

PS...my prediction: 762,500

The Jabroni · #2 Posted **Mar 17, 2009, 5:52 AM**

As much as I'm a huge optimist, I will have to disagree. 736,000 people, maybe, but not 762,500.

I seriously hope I'm wrong though because we definitely have a huge potential to grow as a city, and if I am wrong, I'll be a very happy man.

dennis · #3 Posted **Jun 15, 2009, 5:12 PM**

As of now we are estimated to be 732,000. So 2013: I will be conservative and say 755,000.

Biff · #4 Posted **Jun 15, 2009, 6:20 PM**

As Dennis said, we are already at about 732,000 so in about 5 years we should be about 760,00.

jmt18325 · #5 Posted **Jun 15, 2009, 6:24 PM**

How could it only be 736K when we are probably already there?

J-MAN · #6 Posted **Jun 15, 2009, 7:25 PM**

800K?

probably more like 748,959?

Where will these new people go, that is the question that is on my mind

SmileyBoy · #7 Posted **Jun 15, 2009, 7:35 PM**

Winnipeg is at 732,563 for 2008, so I would say 780,000 for 2013.

trueviking · #8 Posted **Jun 15, 2009, 9:12 PM**

the answer is 772 500.

8000 per year on average.

wayward_prince · #9 Posted **Jun 17, 2009, 4:39 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by trueviking

the answer is 772 500.

8000 per year on average.

what exactly do you base the 8,000 on..and for how long do you think it's been growing by that rate..how many years? and don't factor in new immigrants because of the several thousand who arrive here, almost half leave for greener pastures within six months.

drew · #10 Posted **Jun 17, 2009, 4:47 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by wayward_prince

what exactly do you base the 8,000 on..and for how long do you think it's been growing by that rate..how many years? and don't factor in new immigrants because of the several thousand who arrive here, almost half leave for greener pastures within six months.

^ and what exactly do you base YOUR claim on?

DowntownWpg · #11 Posted **Jun 17, 2009, 5:04 PM**

Population growth isn't necessarily something that is a good reflection on the city.

Population growth and the birth rate is most notable in poverty situations. An example being the birth rate per women in the developing world versus the developed world.

If I can recall correctly, this correlation is also noticeable in Manitoba, where Aboriginal women (a substantial amount in poverty and/or with addictions problems) have 3.5 children on average, versus something like 1.2 per non-Aboriginal woman.

Myself, I'd be just as interested to see some numbers on how the new Winnipeggers got here (amount of immigrants, inter-provincial migration, new births broken out by socio-economic factors, etc)

drew · #12 Posted **Jun 17, 2009, 8:13 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by DowntownWpg

Population growth isn't necessarily something that is a good reflection on the city

Winnipeg loses population. Winnipeg sucks.

Winnipeg's population growth is stagnant. Winnipeg sucks.

and now

Winnipeg gains population. Winnipeg sucks.

To be quite honest, with citizens like this running around Winnipeg, it's a wonder why anyone would move here. And these kinds of attitudes certainly aren't helping to retain any immigrants either.

wayward_prince · #13 Posted **Jun 23, 2009, 10:14 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by drew

^ and what exactly do you base YOUR claim on?

I've worked in immigration. Manitoba primarily gets educated immigrants via the provincial nominee program. Manitoba doesn't need engineers, architects and such. most of the university graduates need to leave to get a job never mind newcomers.

ILYR · #14 Posted **Jun 17, 2009, 8:02 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by wayward_prince

what exactly do you base the 8,000 on..and for how long do you think it's been growing by that rate..how many years? and don't factor in new immigrants because of the several thousand who arrive here, almost half leave for greener pastures within six months.

I had posted these plots some time ago in another thread. The are for Manitoba, but Winnipeg and Manitoba population growth go hand in hand. The number are for total growth, so that includes births, deaths, immigration, inter-provincial migration. Based on the plots below Winnipeg and Manitoba are seeing increased growth compared with then last 30 years. I believe that for many those "greener pastures" are, in fact, in Winnipeg and Manitoba.

trueviking · #15 Posted **Jun 17, 2009, 9:11 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by wayward_prince

what exactly do you base the 8,000 on..and for how long do you think it's been growing by that rate..how many years? and don't factor in new immigrants because of the several thousand who arrive here, almost half leave for greener pastures within six months.

err...where you been?...winnipeg has grown by that amount for the last 5 years and has averaged 5000 for the last 10....your hypothesis that immigrants leave in 6 months is completely false....look at the statistics and compare immigration to population growth numbers and you will see that you are formulating your opinion on myth and not fact.

the immigrant sponsorship programme pretty much guarantees that we will continue to grow at at least that pace....moe likely it will be at a greater pace.

wayward_prince · #16 Posted **Jun 23, 2009, 10:20 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by trueviking

err...where you been?...winnipeg has grown by that amount for the last 5 years and has averaged 5000 for the last 10....your hypothesis that immigrants leave in 6 months is completely false....look at the statistics and compare immigration to population growth numbers and you will see that you are formulating your opinion on myth and not fact.

the immigrant sponsorship programme pretty much guarantees that we will continue to grow at at least that pace....moe likely it will be at a greater pace.

immigrants leave because there are few professional jobs here. Manitoba's growth is based on aboriginal people having lots of kids and aboriginals following the white man to the city and taxpayers paying for it all. that's it!

Jets4Life · #17 Posted **Jun 24, 2009, 4:51 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by wayward_prince

immigrants leave because there are few professional jobs here. Manitoba's growth is based on aboriginal people having lots of kids and aboriginals following the white man to the city and taxpayers paying for it all. that's it!

How does that explain how Winnipeg only gained 19,000 people in the 90's, and has already more than tripled that number this decade?

wayward_prince · #18 Posted **Jun 24, 2009, 5:07 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by trueviking

err...where you been?...winnipeg has grown by that amount for the last 5 years and has averaged 5000 for the last 10....your hypothesis that immigrants leave in 6 months is completely false....look at the statistics and compare immigration to population growth numbers and you will see that you are formulating your opinion on myth and not fact.

the immigrant sponsorship programme pretty much guarantees that we will continue to grow at at least that pace....moe likely it will be at a greater pace.

like i said 3,000 (and posted a link earlier) a year for the past several...at most. big portion is aborigional population coming to the city. rural areas have declined. immigrants get into Canada via the easy access provincial nominee program here and then once they arrive are free to go anywhere in Canada which is what the majority of them do within six months. Sure the economy here is decent but there aren't thousands of new professional jobs created here yearly and most immigrants who arrive via our program are professionals and that is what they want..not a cleaning job..or driving a taxi..so they leave.

Keng · #19 Posted **Jun 18, 2009, 1:50 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by wayward_prince

what exactly do you base the 8,000 on..and for how long do you think it's been growing by that rate..how many years? and don't factor in new immigrants because of the several thousand who arrive here, almost half leave for greener pastures within six months.

I think Winnipeg qualifies as greener pastures. That's an old argument.

wayward_prince · #20 Posted **Jun 24, 2009, 12:35 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by trueviking

the answer is 772 500.

8000 per year on average.

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/manitoba/st...ba-census.html

When the census was taken in May 2006 the population of Winnipeg was 633,451 compared with 619,544 in 2001. That's less than 3,000 per year. So where is the 8,000 per year??
get ur facts straight, so much of what you post on here is based of delusional myths.