Canadian Alternate Histories

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Possible.

The original Charlottetown Conference in 1864 was called to discuss Maritime Union. The Canadians invited themselves to the meeting and changed the course of history.

While the delegates to the conference were swayed by the Canadian's arguments, the colonial legislatures and the citizens of the Maritime colonies were decidedly more lukewarm to the idea.

PEI resisted the siren-song of Confederation until 1873 (only forced into the idea because of a massive railway debt).

Both NB and NS had strong anti-confederate forces which almost scuppered the idea. In NS, Joe Howe continued to fight against confederation for several years after 1867, almost succeeding in separating the new province from the federation.

If the Maritimes had remained independent colonies, I think the idea of Maritime Union would have raised it's head again within a decade or two, and we would today have a Maritime nation slightly larger in surface area the Greece located on the east coast. The orientation of this country would be different than it is today. At the time of confederation, the economy was tied closely to the American northeast, especially Boston. This likely would have continued to today, with well developed land and rail routes to the US northeast. The connections to Canada on the other hand would likely be much more rudimentary.

I have not mentioned Newfoundland, but this is because Newfoundland was never very integrated with it's Maritime neighbours. NL in fact always was more oriented towards the UK. Newfoundland would have remained it's own country.

I think a Martime Dominion would have either been annexed by the US or suffered a similar fate to the Dominion of Newfoundland. The transition to steel ships would have had the same devastating effect on the economy it did in our timeline, the intercolonial railway would have never been built (or built much later) so the ports wouldn’t have much to do. It would have been a less convenient Maine for the North Eastern states and of little interest to Canada.

[Dengler Avenue]

Originally Posted by Loco101

How about a province with an Indigenous population consisting of 80-90% Indigenous people?

This is possible if one of the territories becomes a province.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by acottawa

I think a Martime Dominion would have either been annexed by the US or suffered a similar fate to the Dominion of Newfoundland. The transition to steel ships would have had the same devastating effect on the economy it did in our timeline, the intercolonial railway would have never been built (or built much later) so the ports wouldn’t have much to do. It would have been a less convenient Maine for the North Eastern states and of little interest to Canada.

It's popular but I don't really understand the "steel ships" narrative. Even today there are steel hulled ships manufactured by say A. F. Theriault in Digby, NS and the steel mill in Sydney was the largest in the British empire around 1910 or so. Halifax and Saint John had large shipyards going back to the 1800's that transitioned to modern shipbuilding today. It is true that the era of every small town building its own wooden merchant fleet was bound to end. But it's completely untrue that the Maritimes failed to industrialize and move beyond wood-based manufacturing. I think this is just a nicer story to tell than the real one, which is that the Maritimes were as advanced or more advanced industrially just before Confederation but then fell behind after they joined.

The Intercolonial Railway as an organization was founded after Confederation but it was a merger of pre-existing railways and some dated back to the 1830's. There were already a few different rail lines around the Maritimes before Confederation. I think what would have happened without Confederation is that the link to Montreal would have taken much longer. Also, trains back then were quite slow, so I'm not sure how much more useful a train to Boston was than taking a steamship.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

This is possible if one of the territories becomes a province.

True, but I meant a current province that has a significant population.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by someone123

It's popular but I don't really understand the "steel ships" narrative. Even today there are steel hulled ships manufactured by say A. F. Theriault in Digby, NS and the steel mill in Sydney was the largest in the British empire around 1910 or so. Halifax and Saint John had large shipyards going back to the 1800's that transitioned to modern shipbuilding today. It is true that the era of every small town building its own wooden merchant fleet was bound to end. But it's completely untrue that the Maritimes failed to industrialize and move beyond wood-based manufacturing. I think this is just a nicer story to tell than the real one, which is that the Maritimes were as advanced or more advanced industrially just before Confederation but then fell behind after they joined.

The Intercolonial Railway as an organization was founded after Confederation but it was a merger of pre-existing railways and some dated back to the 1830's. There were already a few different rail lines around the Maritimes before Confederation. I think what would have happened without Confederation is that the link to Montreal would have taken much longer. Also, trains back then were quite slow, so I'm not sure how much more useful a train to Boston was than taking a steamship.

I think the the prosperity of maritime shipbuilding during the age of sail and decline in the age of steam is well-established. Yes, there was a steamship building industry in the 20th century but it was much less economically significant, the maritimes had no particular comparative advantage in the age of steam. http://collections.musee-mccord.qc.c...P1_4_EN&Lang=2

The inter colonial railway was funded by the federal government as a condition of confederation. Without this funding and the markets created by confederation it is unlikely there would have been a rail link to Canada for a long time. There would have been short railways to bring goods to port.

[Arrdeeharharharbour]

If General Washington had come to Halifax as he had promised rather than heading off to deal with border problems with upper Canada, things most likely would have been quite different for Nova Scotia. But he didn't come and the new England pirates continued to raid the south shore communities and the only protection available was through the King. Had Washington come through as he had promised, there may never have been a Maine or a New Brunswick and instead Nova Scotia may have kept its border with Mass.

[swimmer_spe]

Halifax is the 12th city by population. Looking at the 1911 census population, it was around 80,000. That is higher than most of the cities higher than it now. The only cities that seem to be higher are Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver. In 1917, the Halifax Explosion happened and decimated the city. I feel that had that not happened, it would be somewhere in the top 5. Their year round open deep water port would have drawn even more ships to it ad it likely would have overtaken the Port of Montreal for size. To think that ship building is what would have made or broken the Maritimes is a fallacy.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by acottawa

I think the the prosperity of maritime shipbuilding during the age of sail and decline in the age of steam is well-established.

The "narrative" I am talking about uses shipbuilding as a colourful thematic illustration of how the Maritimes never got with the program and moved beyond circa 1860 economic development. The traditional implication is that the Maritimes may have limped along until around 1860 but there was something about the region that guaranteed that it would do poorly afterward. Canada tried its best to help, but alas. We rarely get details about how important the industry was regionally, or other industries. I'd guess that the move from wooden to better shipping was good for the economy in the Maritimes. And that the economic output of the golden age of the NB timber industry in the 1850's was far lower than say Sydney steel circa 1920.

Without this funding and the markets created by confederation it is unlikely there would have been a rail link to Canada for a long time. There would have been short railways to bring goods to port.

Perhaps but the idea of tying the Maritimes in with Canada was driven by Canada. The Boston railway would have been more important and ocean travel would have been much more important still. The Maritimes were not landlocked and awaiting Canada to pay to give them connections to other places.

"Bringing goods to port" in the Maritimes means things like Cape Breton steel being shipped out of Sydney. No rail connection to Montreal is required for this, and these critical rail links predated Confederation.

I find this debate usually goes in strange directions where some people are asking why Halifax wasn't like NYC, others argue that the Maritimes would have been an unlivable hell-hole if not for specific simple things. And we rarely see the same standards applied to other places like say BC or modern-day Quebec (or many many American states) which also don't really have killer comparative advantages in immediately identifiable industries. When people argue that the Maritimes would have done well or not it's typically unclear what they mean.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by someone123

It's popular but I don't really understand the "steel ships" narrative. Even today there are steel hulled ships manufactured by say A. F. Theriault in Digby, NS
.

Hey wait a minute! A.F. Thériault is in Meteghan River, not Digby! It's about a half-hour from Digby in fact.

(I know what I'm talking about! )

EDIT: more like 45 minutes.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Hey wait a minute! A.F. Thériault is in Meteghan River, not Digby! It's about a half-hour from Digby in fact.

(I know what I'm talking about! )

You are right. It is in Digby County, not the town of Digby. It is in an even smaller town than Digby. Lunenburg still has a shipyard too. Some of Halifax's ferries came from the A. F. Theriault shipyard which is how I know about it and the other small shipyards work on fishing boats, yachts, etc. Then of course there's the much bigger Halifax shipyard that's now working on naval vessels but has also done offshore work. The Saint John shipyard was quite active too and started in the 1910's. Shipbuilding in Saint John ended around 2000, not around the time of the advent of steel ships.

There was all kinds of industrial activity in the Maritimes in the 1910's which should have been the low point after the devastation wrought by the end of wooden shipbuilding.

[Arrdeeharharharbour]

Another salient point that shouldn't be ignored in regards to the development of Canada is the simple truth that Canada developed from east to west. Distance costs money. In relation to where the 'action' was happening as the country expanded west, all a competing industry had to do was setup closer to the action to enable the provision of a cheaper and quicker alternative. The maritimes could not compete because they couldn't move (obviously). And the new federation had already put an end to north south trade where trade routes had existed for a century or more.

It should be noted that the federal infant industry act put every individual and company outside of the Windsor / Quebec City corridor to a certian level of disadvantage...at least from a prosperity perspective. Yes, even the west. This was a purposful act to to tax Canadians to fund the build up of that cooridor in order for Canada to have the mass to compete as an industrial country internationally. When you consider the mass of infrastructure in that corridor, be certian that all Canadians paid for it. It wasn't until the 1980's that then prime minister Mulroney eliminated the tax.

I could go on about how provincial governments have since, to their political advantage, pitted Canadians against Canadians in terms of wealth and who works harder, but I won't. Still, it guts me a bit to know that Haligonians help fund the creation and ongoing maintenance of their competition... meaning the St. Lawrence Seaway and its ports that compete with the Port of Halifax.