Work on (LA to Vegas) high-speed rail set to begin this year

[northbay]

Originally Posted by Gordo

It seems to me that the DX is basically hoping to make the real cash after they can connect to the state-financed CAHSR system. If demand from Victorville isn't that great, and they make the majority of their money from LAUS passengers, why would they need to stop in Burbank, Sylmar, Palmdale, or Victorville? They could easily decide to close the Victorville stop if they wanted to - the investment that they're making is in the ROW from Victorville to Vegas, which will become vastly more valuable after connected to the CAHSR system.

I see no reason at all for them to ever consider stopping in Palmdale or Sylmar or Burbank unless they think that they can make more from doing so or political pressure forces them to.

would there ultimately be direct hsr connections from northern cali to lv? otherwise there HAS to be a palmdale stop for people coming from northern california to transfer.

somehow it doesnt make sense to me that dx wants to run its 150 mph trains on a system designed for 220 mph.

[pesto]

BT: agree 100 percent. It it's their money and they are not asking for government guarantees, loans, subsidies, waivers of rules, etc., then God bless 'em, build away.

I'm just pointing out some things that I would take into consideration if it were my money or it I ran the local tourist bureau.

[pesto]

It's hard to believe there would be non-stop service from SF to LV. That's 600 miles by way of Palmdale and seems like it would take a long time.

So I think you're right; if you were going from, say, Stockton or Fresno (or really insisted on going via rail from SF), you would probably have to change at Palmdale.

[mwadswor]

Originally Posted by northbay

would there ultimately be direct hsr connections from northern cali to lv? otherwise there HAS to be a palmdale stop for people coming from northern california to transfer.

It would seem stupid to me to not at least build the connection for northern California trains to easily get onto the DX tracks. The trains may not actually be run that way right away, but the connection should be there in case they are ever run that way. To me, a central valley/SF trip to LV seems like it would make as much sense as an LA to LV trip. LA to LV faces much heavier competition from the airlines and it's much easier to drive. It may take a bit longer from northern California, but so does driving, and it will certainly be cheaper than flying (which isn't even really an option from a lot of the central valley cities). The wildcard there, as you correctly point out, is the different train technologies. Where DX can run on CAHSR tracks, how frequently it will be able to run, and where it would have to stop is heavily dependant on CAHSR since they will own the tracks. CAHSR may not want that many significantly slower DX trains jamming up the tracks.

[Gordo]

I would also doubt many direct Bay Area to Vegas trains, but who knows? I could definitely see direct Central Valley to Vegas trains, just because the air market is essentially missing from those cities (say a Modesto-Fresno-Bakersfield-Vegas semi-express). There's a boatload of potential induced demand there.

There will be some trains that stop in Palmdale from LA, but only if there are a significant number of people wanting to use the train from the north, but not a significant enough number to warrant direct trains from the north.

As with everything else dealing with HSR in California, the important part is getting the network built with sufficient capacity and stops everywhere where it might make sense - in addition to - allowing the market to determine where and when trains start, stop, express, go limited express, go local, etc, etc. Having a stop in Palmdale makes sense, because it's an expected growth area, as well as a potential fork in the system, but we have no idea right now whether it will make sense for any, many, most, or just a few trains to actually stop there. The problems will only arise if the eventual operator of the trains is FORCED to stop at any one station or group of stations.

EDIT - I had always heard that the tracks and OCS built for DX would be capable of handling higher speeds than 150 mph and haven't seen anything to dissuade me from thinking that. My feeling is that DX is buying slower trains to start with because they know that the real value of their system is in building the ROW and then linking the system to the California system. A few trains are a drop in the bucket compared to the money they'll be able to make later on - think of them as throwaway trains.

[10023]

Of all the places in this country that need high speed rail, LA to Vegas strikes me as a gross mis-allocation of resources.

I hope and assume this is all being built with private money?

[northbay]

throwaway trains? uve got to be kidding.

this will be the fastest high speed train line in the country when it opens as well as the first funded entirely with private dollars and theyre just gonna throw away their trains after a little bit and buy faster ones? amtrak, or just about any other high-speed train related transportation agency would DIE to have a trainset like that.

perhaps they are anticipating cahsr trainsets using their tracks in the future.

[northbay]

Originally Posted by 10023

Of all the places in this country that need high speed rail, LA to Vegas strikes me as a gross mis-allocation of resources.

I hope and assume this is all being built with private money?

yep. and there IS a need: theres only a 2 lane freeway thats constantly congested connecting the cities, a large air market (both airports are in the top ten busiest), ideal distance and nothing between them but desert.

[JDRCRASH]

Originally Posted by pesto

Mag-lev or some other technology that could go via the Cajon area seems to be the fastest approach. I would hate to see a rail alternative that doesn't even use the fastest standard technology stand in the way of a truly eye-catching modality. And I'm afraid that even a rinky-dink service, once started, will scare off funding or investors for the best technology.

Many of the criticisms i've heard about Maglev is that it is inefficient. But so is HSR in general.

[JDRCRASH]

Originally Posted by BTinSF

I don't think an extra 20 or 30 minutes for the ride will matter much.

Actually the maglev will make a trip from Vegas to Ontario or Anaheim well over an hour faster than DX.

[Gordo]

Originally Posted by 10023

Of all the places in this country that need high speed rail, LA to Vegas strikes me as a gross mis-allocation of resources.

I hope and assume this is all being built with private money?

Private money, yes, but I assume they're getting a pretty sweet deal on publicly-owned land for the ROW. I wouldn't call it a gross mis-allocation, because the costs to the public are pretty low, but Vegas-LA would certainly not be high on my list to receive public dollars.

[Gordo]

Originally Posted by northbay

throwaway trains? uve got to be kidding.

this will be the fastest high speed train line in the country when it opens as well as the first funded entirely with private dollars and theyre just gonna throw away their trains after a little bit and buy faster ones? amtrak, or just about any other high-speed train related transportation agency would DIE to have a trainset like that.

perhaps they are anticipating cahsr trainsets using their tracks in the future.

Nope, not kidding. The value of the ROW, when connected to the CHSRA system will absolutely dwarf any small amount that they pay for trains now.

When I said throwaway, I didn't actually mean that they'll throw them away, just that the fact that they're buying 150mph trains now doesn't mean that they'll be stuck with using 150mph trains in the future. They could have 220+ trains from CA use their tracks, they could sell the 150mph trains to other entities, they could use 150mph trains on some routes and buy faster ones for other routes, they could swap some of their trains with California for use in shorter routes (like a lengthened Caltrain route or intra-SoCal routes) that don't need the high top end, etc, etc.

Just don't think of this as a 150mph max extension - that's just the service level that they'll be offering on their own Victorville-Vegas trip, which can't possibly be where they hope to make money over the long run.

[SnyderBock]

Originally Posted by electricron

I don't think there's any government supported conspiracy. The reason they chose 150 mph maximum speed trains is because they are cheaper to run, therefore easier to turn a profit....

Let's count the ways 150 mph trains are cheaper to run than 220 mph trains.
(1) Less energy consumption, (2) Cheaper trains, and (3) Cheaper track infrastructure, (4) Faster trains don't draw more passengers at a cost effective rate.

Lets look a little closer how 150 mph tracks are cheaper than 220 mph tracks. (a) Ballast missile hazards eliminated at no additional costs, (b) Tolerances are less, (c) Less ties are needed, and (d) grades can be higher because engineer sight lines are shorter.

Let's look a little closer at trainsets. A Siemens Velaro is amongst the choices for a 220 mph train.

On 19 May 2006 Siemens announced an order for eight Velaro RUS high speed trains by Russian Railways including a 30-year service contract. The contract is in total worth €600 million. That means each train costs €75 million over 30 years, not including interest payments. €75 million is equivalent to $102 million today...

...As for travel times - it's 190.5 miles between Las Vegas and Victorville per Yahoo Maps.
At average highway speeds, per Yahoo Maps, it takes 2 hours and 49 minutes to drive that distance.
A train at 220 mph will take 52 minutes.
A train at 150 mph will take 1 hour and 16 minutes.
A train at 110 mph will take 1 hour and 44 minutes.
A train at 90 mph will take 2 hours and 7 minutes.
A train at 80 mph will take 2 hours and 23 minutes.

I don't think they think a time savings of just 24 minutes will increase passenger demand enough to pay the increased costs.....One and a quarter hours is plenty fast when you consider it takes two and three quarter hours to drive.

I'm not convinced 150 mph will be more cost effective than 220 mph. Here are the final results from the extensive study conducted for the Colorado Department of Transportation, to determine this very issue. It's fairly comparable to the LA-Vegas line, because the Denver-Vail line is also projected to have far higher tourist ridership than traditional rail lines -- just like the Vegas line. They both will also have to traverse some mountainous terrain. Thanks in large part to Colorado's ski resorts, the Colorado HSR line is projected to carry 35 million passengers a year by 2030 if built using 220 mph very fast HSR trains.

Take a look for yourself. The higher the ratios, the better and anything below 1.00 is bad. The 220 mph system seems to be superior to the 150 mph system in both cost effectiveness (construction cost to benefit ratio) and in operating ratio (operational costs to profit ratio). The 220 mph system would bring higher profits to a private company, and be only about $1 billion more costly to build:

[Gordo]

^The Victorville-Vegas line, which this story is about and is the one planned to use 150mph trains, really doesn't traverse any mountains. The mountains that need traversing to get to LA are west of Victorville. An LA link will require connection to the CA system.

[electricron]

I also might add the Colorado HSR study looked at two corridors, not just one, with different terrain obstacles and distances. The Colorado HSR study didn't include all up front capital being provided by private enterprise. To you, a $Billion here or there means nothing, to private enterprise, a $Billion here or there can make a difference between operating at a profit or not.

A significant find in the Colorado HSR study was the fare price had to be low, about half what Amtrak gets on the NE Corridor. If fares must remain low to attract customers, I can understand why private enterprise will want to keep capital expenses low too.

Additionally, the Desert Xpress is much further along in the final stages of design-build, the Colorado HSR has just started having just finished the initial Feasibility Study. You be surprised how much what's possible on paper is far different than what's possible in the real world. Just wait for the train to plan to run through a specific valley with eagle nests or ancient trees and see how much it is going to cost more to mitigate the environmental concerns.

[10023]

Originally Posted by northbay

yep. and there IS a need: theres only a 2 lane freeway thats constantly congested connecting the cities, a large air market (both airports are in the top ten busiest), ideal distance and nothing between them but desert.

I understand that there's a need... and I understand that Vegas isn't solely a gambling mecca. But there are places that would merit public money more than a train built largely to ferry Angelenos to casinos and conventions in Vegas.

If it's a private line, then yes they are filling a demand and hopefully it will be profitable.

[SnyderBock]

Which is exactly why I'd like to see the EIS for this line. Where is it?

[northbay]

Originally Posted by SnyderBock

Which is exactly why I'd like to see the EIS for this line. Where is it?

its being finalized

[twoNeurons]

Originally Posted by mwadswor

Agreed. Ideally, it should be integrated with the LV monorail somehow as that already goes to the strip and most of the major hotels. I haven't seen any concrete information on the LV stop, does anyone know if that info is out there somewhere?

The LV monorail is overpriced and doesn't serve the strip as well as it could.

[pesto]

10023: like the stock market, gambling isn't just fun and games: it's a huge employer and a major part of the tourist industry as well. LA and Orange County as well as LV see high-speed rail as promoting tourism, especially from abroad.

I'm not sure why you think other lines "deserve" more funding. It's not like HSR is aimed at subsidizing the commutes of lower income people who need to get to work or school or doctors or shopping. It's mostly to move people who are on business, vacationing or visiting.