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  #21  
Old Posted Aug 22, 2014, 10:58 PM
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Originally Posted by esquire View Post
I'm glad to see that Sask will finally get rid of the hybrid rural/urban ridings. Up to now, Sask has never had a true urban riding in Saskatoon or Regina. It was just this kind of nonsense where four predominantly rural ridings intersected in the middle of both cities:



That being said, I appreciate the relatively reasonable approach to riding redistribution that we have in Canada, certainly in contrast with the popular American tactic of gerrymandering electoral districts where they surgically remove any areas that do not support the incumbent party. Here's an example:

That's terrible, and is exactly why Canada is lucky to have an independent, non-partisan organization which takes care of re-districting, unlike in the US where the politicians do it so it's highly partisan.
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  #22  
Old Posted Aug 22, 2014, 11:48 PM
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Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker View Post
Our new electoral districts are:

Avalon (Population: 81,540)
Bonavista—Burin—Trinity (Population: 76,704)
Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame (Population: 78,092)
Labrador (Population: 26,728)
Long Range Mountains (Population: 87,592)
St. John's East (Population: 81,936)
St. John's South—Mount Pearl (Population: 81,944)



In rural Newfoundland, this is a tremendous improvement.

The west coast used to be split between Humber—St. Barbe—Baie Verte and Random—Burin—St. George's. They've brilliantly included in this district portions of the south coast that have no roads or vehicles but are linked by ferry to Burgeo via Ramea. Long Range Mountains now actually groups together comparable regions that operate a cohesive unit in daily life.

This was especially problematic in the latter, which included towns relative close to St. John's as well as those on the opposite side of the island, with completely different economies, needs, etc.

However, Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame still combines very different communities that are isolated from each other and don't share much in common. However, it is tolerable because road access to the south coast of this portion of the island is only possible using the Coast of Bays Highway. That lines the southern and northern coasts of this district.

In St. John's, it's still nonsensical:



Neither of the St. John's ridings include the city's suburbs and the dividing line between the two makes little sense.

But, whatever.

And a small naming WTF: They tried to change St. John's East to St. John's North, which it is, but no one says that. For us, it's the East End.

Yet they kept St. John's South in the name of the other district... which is a phrase no one says, ever. It's the West End.
IMO they should just have St. John's as an urban-based riding, then put small portions (to get the population right) at the edge with the suburbs to form a riding, say, Cape Spear-Mount Pearl, and another suburban riding, say Avalon Centre.
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  #23  
Old Posted Aug 23, 2014, 1:09 AM
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The status quo is the one thing that worries me about this next election for Calgary. I am pretty sure we will get one liberal seat here, but hte thing is, Calgary's golden era has been since 2005, only one of those years were Liberals in parliament, and the rest has been the Tories. From that fact alone, that might steer a lot of people from voting for their beliefs, to voting for their fears.



On another note, it's fantastic to see that Saskatchewan now has four fully urban electoral districts, with three more semi-urban districts!
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  #24  
Old Posted Aug 23, 2014, 1:32 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by esquire View Post
I'm glad to see that Sask will finally get rid of the hybrid rural/urban ridings. Up to now, Sask has never had a true urban riding in Saskatoon or Regina. It was just this kind of nonsense where four predominantly rural ridings intersected in the middle of both cities:



That being said, I appreciate the relatively reasonable approach to riding redistribution that we have in Canada, certainly in contrast with the popular American tactic of gerrymandering electoral districts where they surgically remove any areas that do not support the incumbent party. Here's an example:

Regina and Saskatoon are also examples of gerrymandering. The current riding boundaries were drawn by the Liberal Party to prevent the NDP from getting any seats in those cities.
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  #25  
Old Posted Aug 23, 2014, 2:04 AM
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RyLucky- Chris has no intention of running.

Liberals will win Calgary Centre and Confederation and likely whatever the riding is called that Darshan Kang is running in unless the CPC can get a Sikh candidate. NE Calgary votes along ethnic lines. So I see three in Calgary very, very likely and that has nothing do with how you or I consider ourselves to be "liberal." The fact that you consider yourself to be doesn't make you less pessimistic and probably makes you more unrealistic and frankly that lends to self-fulfilling prophecies where progressive voters in Calgary don't bother to vote. I'm sure plenty of "liberals" thought it was impossible that Rob Anders would be dethroned because they see Calgary as a right-wing backwater.

Vote and stop saying things won't happen. Nenshi never would have been elected in a partisan election because too many of his supporters would have stayed home because what's the point, Calgary is conservative. Infuriates me. Pure FUD. Stop it.
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  #26  
Old Posted Aug 23, 2014, 2:12 AM
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Originally Posted by Rusty van Reddick View Post
RyLucky- Chris has no intention of running.

Liberals will win Calgary Centre and Confederation and likely whatever the riding is called that Darshan Kang is running in unless the CPC can get a Sikh candidate. NE Calgary votes along ethnic lines. So I see three in Calgary very, very likely and that has nothing do with how you or I consider ourselves to be "liberal." The fact that you consider yourself to be doesn't make you less pessimistic and probably makes you more unrealistic and frankly that lends to self-fulfilling prophecies where progressive voters in Calgary don't bother to vote. I'm sure plenty of "liberals" thought it was impossible that Rob Anders would be dethroned because they see Calgary as a right-wing backwater.

Vote and stop saying things won't happen. Nenshi never would have been elected in a partisan election because too many of his supporters would have stayed home because what's the point, Calgary is conservative. Infuriates me. Pure FUD. Stop it.
Rob Anders running as an independent would help split the right-wing vote though? Unless party brand trumps MP recognition?
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  #27  
Old Posted Aug 23, 2014, 2:19 AM
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While Regina and Saskatoon have been given proper urban ridings, Thunder Bay is still split into two (a result of nearly a century of Port Arthur and Fort William being in separate ridings) and the riding of Barrie has been abolished; the city is now split into two ridings.
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  #28  
Old Posted Aug 23, 2014, 2:35 AM
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Can somebody break down Ontario's new 15 seats? I was told 11 of these are in the GTA, 2 are in Ottawa, and where are the other 2?

And Quebec's three new seats are all in Montreal yes?
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  #29  
Old Posted Aug 23, 2014, 2:42 AM
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Originally Posted by vid View Post
While Regina and Saskatoon have been given proper urban ridings, Thunder Bay is still split into two (a result of nearly a century of Port Arthur and Fort William being in separate ridings) and the riding of Barrie has been abolished; the city is now split into two ridings.
In the case of Barrie, it was necessitated by population growth. The other option was a riding with most of Barrie, with a small portion in another rural-based riding.
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  #30  
Old Posted Aug 23, 2014, 2:44 AM
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Originally Posted by travis3000 View Post
Can somebody break down Ontario's new 15 seats? I was told 11 of these are in the GTA, 2 are in Ottawa, and where are the other 2?

And Quebec's three new seats are all in Montreal yes?
3 of the new seats are in Montreal (one on the island, two in the 450 I believe) and one is in the Outaouais region. One seat was lost from eastern Quebec I believe as well.

As for the Ontario seats, I believe two are in the City of Toronto, 11 are in the rest of the GTA, one is in the Ottawa area and one is in the Kitchener-Waterloo area.
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  #31  
Old Posted Aug 23, 2014, 3:58 AM
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The 2015 election is going to be interesting...

On that topic, ex Quebec PM (and ex BQ leader) Bouchard (still a super well respected man here) just spoke out a couple days ago against the Bloc saying it wasn't meant to last and is now just helping dilute Quebec's weight in federal matters; it's been in the news here (minor news of course) all week.

All those three-way and four-way races will be awfully hard to predict, many of those 78 seats could go three+ ways.
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  #32  
Old Posted Aug 23, 2014, 9:23 AM
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Originally Posted by eternallyme View Post
IMO they should just have St. John's as an urban-based riding, then put small portions (to get the population right) at the edge with the suburbs to form a riding, say, Cape Spear-Mount Pearl, and another suburban riding, say Avalon Centre.
Yeah. The city is basically divided the way those of Saskatchewan used to be - three mostly rural districts intersecting near the city centre.

Fortunately, though, the population in each district is mostly urban (even the Avalon district is dominated by suburban St. John's). So we have three districts where Townies are the main population.

And, really, rural Newfoundland is diehard Liberal. Once Harper is gone, I'm sure we'll see a slow movement back to St. John's being Conservative (as opposed to its current NDP) and everything else being Liberal.
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  #33  
Old Posted Aug 23, 2014, 11:10 AM
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Harper's new Arctic speech this week worries me. He was surprisingly on game. Acted very humble, made jokes, appeared relaxed and was on point. He has his whole attack memorized pretty much. Didn't even need a teleprompter or anything, just glanced at his notes every minute or so. But if that Harper comes to the next election... it'll be another Con majority guaranteed.

Like I want Trudeau to win, but seriously think about it.... Harper will be coming to the table with a Surplus of 4-5 Billion dollars. He will be buying votes with that. On top of that, he will be touting his economic record of balancing the budget, guiding the country through tough times, etc. It will be very hard for any party to break through that. The thing Harper has always had against him was his boring monotone cold attitude. And let me tell you, if this Arctic speech was a preview into his campaign style next year... Trudeau and Mulcair are toast. And I'm saying this as a Liberal supporter. It's really worrisome.
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  #34  
Old Posted Aug 23, 2014, 11:11 AM
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Harper hasn't a chance in hell here. And hopefully he won't on the mainland either.
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  #35  
Old Posted Aug 23, 2014, 2:09 PM
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Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker View Post
Harper hasn't a chance in hell here. And hopefully he won't on the mainland either.
You probably have the first part right, just be prepared for "and the minister responsible for Newfoundland is Peter Mackay"!
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  #36  
Old Posted Aug 23, 2014, 2:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Doady View Post
Regina and Saskatoon are also examples of gerrymandering. The current riding boundaries were drawn by the Liberal Party to prevent the NDP from getting any seats in those cities.
Political parties don't draw riding boundaries in Canada.
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  #37  
Old Posted Aug 23, 2014, 3:11 PM
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You probably have the first part right, just be prepared for "and the minister responsible for Newfoundland is Peter Mackay"!
Please not again.
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  #38  
Old Posted Aug 23, 2014, 3:11 PM
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Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker View Post
Harper hasn't a chance in hell here.
True, but completely irrelevant. It's very possible to have a majority federally in spite of next-to-no support in entire regions. PET demonstrated that very well, but now it's the West's turn. Payback...
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  #39  
Old Posted Aug 23, 2014, 3:22 PM
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Well... grumble.

*****

Once Harper is gone, if the Conservatives become less regressive - they will definitely reclaim at least 2 of our 7 seats.

St. John's has traditionally been conservative (and not just federally). It's only since 2008 that other parties have had a chance in St. John's.

In 2008, we went NDP/Liberal.

In 2011, both St. John's districts went NDP.

Interestingly, carving off the St. John's suburbs and adding them to the new Avalon district could create a third reliably Conservative district in the province. But, again, it all depends on that party becoming normal at the federal level.

Even a rumour of a whisper of social conservatism, and they're dead here.

Barring an exceptionally popular local candidate, the rest of the province will be Liberal forever.
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  #40  
Old Posted Aug 23, 2014, 3:26 PM
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Originally Posted by travis3000 View Post
Harper's new Arctic speech this week worries me. He was surprisingly on game. Acted very humble, made jokes, appeared relaxed and was on point. He has his whole attack memorized pretty much. Didn't even need a teleprompter or anything, just glanced at his notes every minute or so. But if that Harper comes to the next election... it'll be another Con majority guaranteed.

Like I want Trudeau to win, but seriously think about it.... Harper will be coming to the table with a Surplus of 4-5 Billion dollars. He will be buying votes with that. On top of that, he will be touting his economic record of balancing the budget, guiding the country through tough times, etc. It will be very hard for any party to break through that. The thing Harper has always had against him was his boring monotone cold attitude. And let me tell you, if this Arctic speech was a preview into his campaign style next year... Trudeau and Mulcair are toast. And I'm saying this as a Liberal supporter. It's really worrisome.


Like him or not, most people will agree that Harper is extremely intelligent. The same can be said about Mulcair. Trudeau, on the other hand....It will be interesting to see how he holds up under the pressure of a campaign.
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