General Phoenix Metro Discussion Thread

[mdpx]

Originally Posted by Obadno

This is good to see, I doubt Phoenix could ever become a first tier city like NY, Chicago, LA. As it lacks the geography to really do so, however it is nice to see that we are moving from a 3rd tier retiree zone, into a 2nd tier city.

However we are likely doomed into LA's larger regional center of gravity forever.

https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/...or-office.html

Was a commercial real estate analyst for nearly 20 years. Phoenix is a tertiary (third tier) office market and second tier industrial market. That will not change in the near future. We have office inventories nearly half of cities smaller than us in every metric. We are not an office town. Sure, you might have shitloads of call centers and most of the them are in industrial flex buildings converted to office use.

Having said that, it doesn't mean Phoenix is not a dynamo when it comes to growth, technology, tourism, you name it. s. Phoenix is getting more cosmopolitan and diverse in good ways. It's just that the dynamics of our office sector are to feed the larger markets. For us, that's LA and Dallas.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by mdpx

Was a commercial real estate analyst for nearly 20 years. Phoenix is a tertiary (third tier) office market and second tier industrial market. That will not change in the near future. We have office inventories nearly half of cities smaller than us in every metric. We are not an office town. Sure, you might have shitloads of call centers and most of the them are in industrial flex buildings converted to office use.

Having said that, it doesn't mean Phoenix is not a dynamo when it comes to growth, technology, tourism, you name it. s. Phoenix is getting more cosmopolitan and diverse in good ways. It's just that the dynamics of our office sector are to feed the larger markets. For us, that's LA and Dallas.

I think that is changing my friend, we are getting more international buisness, the amount of “call center” work is no longer the only types of offices we are getting, just in 2017 there was an article about Phoenix metro being second only to Chicago in total office absorption.

There is a lot of old timer resistance to the idea that economically the city hasn’t been transforming over the last several years. The type of growth and industries growing the most are nothing like what you expieirenced over most of your 20 years.

[mdpx]

Originally Posted by Obadno

I think that is changing my friend, we are getting more international buisness, the amount of “call center” work is no longer the only types of offices we are getting, just in 2017 there was an article about Phoenix metro being second only to Chicago in total office absorption.

There is a lot of old timer resistance to the idea that economically the city hasn’t been transforming over the last several years. The type of growth and industries growing the most are nothing like what you expieirenced over most of your 20 years.

As usual, you took this as a slam toward our city. The city has changed dramatically and yes absorption is up but in a big city with very small office market Phoenix is about 172 M, whereas Dallas, Los Angeles, SF, Seattle, Philly, Atlanta have over 500 M or more. That's a huge difference. It's not put down it's a fact. I studied the industries moving here and report on them still. I create market reports and delve deeply into the data and trends, so don't tell me I haven't experienced this stuff.

[Phxguy]

https://medium.com/highform/to-phoen...e-8cfda824e729

Came across this cool ‘bird’s eye view’ that every city of the last century seems to have. It’s illustrated like in the old days but the skyline is up-to-date with buildings like Link (only tower 1), Stewart, and Block 23 all completed. The scaling, I think is a bit wonky, nevertheless, I found it cool to look over!

[CrestedSaguaro]

Originally Posted by Phxguy

https://medium.com/highform/to-phoen...e-8cfda824e729

Came across this cool ‘bird’s eye view’ that every city of the last century seems to have. It’s illustrated like in the old days but the skyline is up-to-date with buildings like Link (only tower 1), Stewart, and Block 23 all completed. The scaling, I think is a bit wonky, nevertheless, I found it cool to look over!

Cool. They should add the Banner tower too

[biggus diggus]

I'm considering taking part in a 12-15 unit building near Fillmore and Grand. High risk if you ask me. Almost certainly going to pass but the guys involved are pretty dead set so look for something soon potentially.

[Phxguy]

Originally Posted by biggus diggus

I'm considering taking part in a 12-15 unit building near Fillmore and Grand. High risk if you ask me. Almost certainly going to pass but the guys involved are pretty dead set so look for something soon potentially.

Curious what you mean, “taking part.” As in moving into? Or helping renovate or build?

[TJPHXskyscraperfan]

Originally Posted by RonnieFoos

Cool. They should add the Banner tower too

Looks like they missed Broadstone Roosevelt and I don't think I see Proxy behind The Link. They definitely should of made The Link bigger.

[biggus diggus]

Originally Posted by Phxguy

Curious what you mean, “taking part.” As in moving into? Or helping renovate or build?

They want me to help fund the project. I don't think it'll make any money. I would not live at Grand and Fillmore.

Anyway these guys seem dead set on building it, you will probably see something pop up soon. Maybe. I don't know.

[Phxguy]

Originally Posted by biggus diggus

They want me to help fund the project. I don't think it'll make any money. I would not live at Grand and Fillmore.

Anyway these guys seem dead set on building it, you will probably see something pop up soon. Maybe. I don't know.

Your money is your money. I’m all for development on Grand and West of Central but I don’t know the stakes involved. Pretty neat though, will it be demolishing an existing building on Grand or replacing an empty lot?

[biggus diggus]

Two lots one empty and one with a vacant building. Wish I could share more. They're $110/ft deep if they complete the land purchase. Not a good start.

[combusean]

Have you been in connections with Beatrice Moore? She's the old gray lady of Grand Ave and might have some things to say about new neighbors right near her, especially if there are demolitions or rezonings.

Grand Ave is turning around but it's not going to be a big boomin' TOD neighborhood absent a streetcar, and even with a streetcar nobody in that neighborhood wants a lot of development. If it finishes turning around you could own an exclusive product, but I just can't figure out why anyone would be getting into acquisitions at this point in the market today, especially in an area you can't really take your mom to today. It's not a question of product, imho, it's about timing.

[biggus diggus]

What the neighbors want is kind of irrelevant, that's the same as the folks complaining about the artisan building on Central being too tall.

[pbenjamin]

Originally Posted by biggus diggus

What the neighbors want is kind of irrelevant, that's the same as the folks complaining about the artisan building on Central being too tall.

Spoken like a true developer.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by biggus diggus

They want me to help fund the project. I don't think it'll make any money. I would not live at Grand and Fillmore.

Anyway these guys seem dead set on building it, you will probably see something pop up soon. Maybe. I don't know.

Condo's or APTs? If its Apts' people will live there, I probably wouldnt but people would, they might need to cater to a lowe level of renter for now though.

[biggus diggus]

It's a big developer from another country, they're new enough to the states that they don't really have any ties with architects, lenders, or construction guys. They show a little indecisiveness over what they want to build which is not a good sign but they are friends and good guys who know how to make money.

condos or apartments is still the question. Lets put it this way, if you're $110/ft deep after the land acquisition that means you're going to be $350~/ft after construction to build quality with amenities. I don't know how you sell condos at that location for $400+/ft. Would have to be apartments in my opinion, but they don't seem to agree yet.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by biggus diggus

It's a big developer from another country, they're new enough to the states that they don't really have any ties with architects, lenders, or construction guys. They show a little indecisiveness over what they want to build which is not a good sign but they are friends and good guys who know how to make money.

condos or apartments is still the question. Lets put it this way, if you're $110/ft deep after the land acquisition that means you're going to be $350~/ft after construction to build quality with amenities. I don't know how you sell condos at that location for $400+/ft. Would have to be apartments in my opinion, but they don't seem to agree yet.

Do what wood partners does, Build, lease half the units, and flip it to a new property manager.

[biggus diggus]

I don't want any involvement with that!

[Obadno]

Land sold south of 202 at 202 and 40th

https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/...nd-parcel.html

irst American Exchange Co. was the successful bidder for a 51-acre parcel of State Trust land west of 40th Street and south of Loop 202 in Phoenix.

Through a limited liability company called FAE Holdings 490296R LLC, the Salt Lake City company paid $25.8 million for the land, which is zoned for commerce park/general commerce park and appraised at $14 million — the auction's minimum low bid.

As a 1031 exchange firm, First American won't be holding the land for long. Plans call for holding it as part of a 1031 exchange on behalf of its client, which company officials refused to reveal.

I think its just a land holding but its more likely to get developed in private hadns than as trust lands.

Also the large sister lot north of the 202 is slated for a large Datacenter.

[Obadno]

Following up on the above, looks like an 800ksqft office park and a 1mm sqft office park up at the old turff paradise.

Both suburban in nature but fine for those locations in my opinion. And apparently they are opening a a midtown office, all good news!

https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/...o-phoenix.html

Sunbelt Investment Holdings Inc. is planning to build two business parks totaling 1.8 million square feet on some prime chunks of land in Phoenix.

The two developments will cost about $240 million to build, and the San Diego developer will pay those costs in cash.

The company is so active in metro Phoenix that it intends to open a satellite office in midtown Phoenix next year, said Todd Holzer, president of Sunbelt Investment, who splits his time between California and Arizona.

"We're real active land buyers right now," he said.

In June, the San Diego-based company was the successful bidder for 93.3 acres of state trust land near 19th Avenue and Bell Road, bidding $26.5 million for the parcel near Turf Paradise. Then, on Nov. 7, it was the winning bidder for 51 acres of state trust land near 40th Street and Loop 202, for $25.8 million.

Plans call for building business parks on both of those parcels, similar to Cotton Center, a 280-acre master-planned business park near 48th Street and Broadway Road in Phoenix, Holzer said.

The new business park at 19th Avenue and Bell will be about 1 million square feet of mixed-use development, including office, flextech and retail, said Mark Krison, senior vice president of advisory and transaction services for CBRE in Phoenix.

Krison will be in charge of leasing for both projects, along with his son, Luke Krison, an associate with advisory and transaction services for CBRE in Phoenix.

Meanwhile, plans call for building the Skyway 202 Business Park at 40th Street and Loop 202, which is expected to range between 700,000 and 800,000 square feet, Krison said.

General contractor for that project is Phoenix-based Willmeng Construction, while Butler Design Group is the architect.

Both projects will break ground in 2020, and will be financed with "all cash," Krison said.

Sunbelt Investment already owns about 2,000 acres in metro Phoenix, with about 1,100 of that in Mesa along Elliott Road in the technology corridor, Holzer said. The rest of the property is in Chandler, Phoenix, Goodyear and Buckeye.

Separately, Holzer is adding two speculative industrial buildings to Mesa Elliot Technology Park, bringing nearly 300,000 square feet of general-purpose industrial space in two phases.

While those are spec buildings in Mesa, the business parks in Phoenix will not be speculative, Holzer said.

"We will be doing pre-lease build-to-suit and we're pretty patient," he said. "We will wait for the right deals to come. We might build spec, but maybe just one building."

Krison said he's known Holzer for at least 25 years, back when he was vice president of development for Ryan Cos. US Inc.'s Southwest division in Phoenix. While at Ryan Cos. in 2012, Holzer was selected as volunteer of the year by NAIOP, a national commercial real estate organization.