Winnipeg Population Growth Estimates

[Spocket]

^
Have to agree . No matter how we rich the country may be , some province will probably be a have-not . Depends on how many drunken sailors are running the provincial economies I guess .

[The Bess]

Ruckus
Registered User

That is indeed the case. There is a wealth of information at http://saskatoonhousingbubble.blogspot.com/

Do you live in Saskatoon or is this where you get your info LOL

[The Bess]

Originally Posted by Spocket View Post
You make a good point and you're not wrong of course but you may want to look at the comparison with Saskatoon in context .
Saskatchewan benefited more from the downturn in Alberta than it did from any particularly positive trends at home . That's not to say that Saskatchewan doesn't have anything good going on that would attract people there but for the time being it's fairer to characterize its growth not so much as a boom but as a bubble .

I'm glad that Saskatchewan is finally seeing positive in-flow and that it's a 'have' province but whether or not we're looking at sustainable growth isn't entirely clear yet . Once Alberta starts firing on all cylinders we'll have a better understanding . There are already signs that Saskatoon is over-building .

What would all those cylinders be oil & gas? nice try, alot of workers going to Alberta now are coming from BC. But you have something Sask doesn't have, a women Premier.

[jmt18325]

Originally Posted by Spocket

^
Have to agree . No matter how we rich the country may be , some province will probably be a have-not .

Actually, some always have to be have not, since it's based on an average.

[Ruckus]

Originally Posted by The Bess

Ruckus
Registered User


Do you live in Saskatoon or is this where you get your info LOL

Yes and no.

[Spocket]

Originally Posted by The Bess

What would all those cylinders be oil & gas? nice try, alot of workers going to Alberta now are coming from BC. But you have something Sask doesn't have, a women Premier.

What ? Did Manitoba elect a woman despite no women leading any party up for election ? Besides , what is that even supposed to mean ? Does electing a woman to lead Alberta mean they'll all live in some Utopian fantasy or does it mean they'll be declaring war on China in the coming weeks ? Do you even know what you're talking about ? Just because the majority of oil/gas workers are coming from B.C. doesn't mean that Saskatchewan won't be sending a lot of its own population over when the grass gets a little greener in Alberta or less so in Saskatchewan . That's what happened for the past forty years up until recently .


JMT

Actually, some always have to be have not, since it's based on an average.

Actually , if you mean an average of all provincial revenues then no , that's not exactly how it works .
Now that I've been researching the matter , I'm a little confused myself about what makes a province fall into the have/have not columns . If a province can meet all its program expenditures without equalization , I'm not quite clear on how it can still be a have-not . Quick ! To the BatPedia !

[jmt18325]

Originally Posted by Spocket

Actually , if you mean an average of all provincial revenues then no , that's not exactly how it works .

No, that isn't what I meant, but I can understand the confusion.

The program works based on a theoretical revenue generating potential at a theoretical tax base based on an average of all provinces tax bases. The system, before about 2007, worked on a 5 province standard, but there is now a 10 province standard. There was some tinkering done in the lead up to the recession that I'm not familiar with. Under the system, there will always be have and have not provinces, although, provinces don't have to accept the money, if I understand correctly.

[The Bess]

originally posted by Sprocket
What ? Did Manitoba elect a woman despite no women leading any party up for election ? Besides , what is that even supposed to mean ? Does electing a woman to lead Alberta mean they'll all live in some Utopian fantasy or does it mean they'll be declaring war on China in the coming weeks ? Do you even know what you're talking about ? Just because the majority of oil/gas workers are coming from B.C. doesn't mean that Saskatchewan won't be sending a lot of its own population over when the grass gets a little greener in Alberta or less so in Saskatchewan . That's what happened for the past forty years up until recently .

I would like to discuss this further to find out if you know what your talking about, but being a Winnipeg thread I don't want to hijack it.

[Joshy]

Originally Posted by jmt18325

No, that isn't what I meant, but I can understand the confusion.

The program works based on a theoretical revenue generating potential at a theoretical tax base based on an average of all provinces tax bases. The system, before about 2007, worked on a 5 province standard, but there is now a 10 province standard. There was some tinkering done in the lead up to the recession that I'm not familiar with. Under the system, there will always be have and have not provinces, although, provinces don't have to accept the money, if I understand correctly.

You've always sounded content on Manitoba being a have-not province. Myself and many others are not and would like to see this change going forward.

[Joshy]

Originally Posted by The Bess

I would like to discuss this further to find out if you know what your talking about, but being a Winnipeg thread I don't want to hijack it.

The boom in Saskatoon from what I hear is slowing down and they are indeed overbuilding, just as most boom cycles go.

But ya, this isn't a Saskatoon thread, so let's keep this talk strictly about Winnipeg.

[roccerfeller]

Just bringing this discussion up again, although

not much has changed since our last discussion on the topic, i'll repost an interesting note with the discrepancies from (sept) 2004 (http://www.winnipeg.ca/ppd/planning/...er/popproj.pdf)

to (sept) 2007
http://www.winnipeg.ca/cao/pdfs/population_forecast.pdf

to 2008
http://www.winnipeg.ca/cao/pdfs/Adju...2009To2031.pdf

to (may) 2011
http://www.winnipeg.ca/cao/pdfs/population.pdf

interesting to note because within this timeframe, our rate of growth has kept increasing so the readjustments are noted and quite nice to look at. Given the economic momentum we're experiencing, which will only go up, we'll keep moving forward a steady growth rate that each year will incrementally go up, which will keep bringing a good population jump each year.

Will be interesting to see how much.

I hear the province is working even harder at attracting immigrants.

I know this is very similar to a post I did earlier in the thread, but its been some time since we've had some population discussion going.

Anyone have any predictions/hopes/gloom to throw in for fun?

Its amazing to think by this time next year we could be hovering around ~775k CMA; certainly a different story than around the time I moved to Winnipeg when we were only pulling ~2000 new people each year. Amazing to see how this city has stabilized and thrived, each year getting better and better at attracting immigrants and building population, now attracting 10k more people as the bottom line.

[armorand93]

Originally Posted by roccerfeller

Just bringing this discussion up again, although

not much has changed since our last discussion on the topic, i'll repost an interesting note with the discrepancies from (sept) 2004 (http://www.winnipeg.ca/ppd/planning/...er/popproj.pdf)

to (sept) 2007
http://www.winnipeg.ca/cao/pdfs/population_forecast.pdf

to 2008
http://www.winnipeg.ca/cao/pdfs/Adju...2009To2031.pdf

to (may) 2011
http://www.winnipeg.ca/cao/pdfs/population.pdf

interesting to note because within this timeframe, our rate of growth has kept increasing so the readjustments are noted and quite nice to look at. Given the economic momentum we're experiencing, which will only go up, we'll keep moving forward a steady growth rate that each year will incrementally go up, which will keep bringing a good population jump each year.

Will be interesting to see how much.

I hear the province is working even harder at attracting immigrants.

I know this is very similar to a post I did earlier in the thread, but its been some time since we've had some population discussion going.

Anyone have any predictions/hopes/gloom to throw in for fun?

Its amazing to think by this time next year we could be hovering around ~775k CMA; certainly a different story than around the time I moved to Winnipeg when we were only pulling ~2000 new people each year. Amazing to see how this city has stabilized and thrived, each year getting better and better at attracting immigrants and building population, now attracting 10k more people as the bottom line.

Now to just drag unemployed Southern Ontarians here and we're set!

[Joshy]

Originally Posted by armorand93

Now to just drag unemployed Southern Ontarians here and we're set!

What? Why would you want more unemployed people moving to the province?

[Winnipegger@Heart]

I think he meant skilled people.

[micheal]

Originally Posted by Joshy

The boom in Saskatoon from what I hear is slowing down and they are indeed overbuilding, just as most boom cycles go.

But ya, this isn't a Saskatoon thread, so let's keep this talk strictly about Winnipeg.

I have to laugh at this comment. saskatoon is on pace for 3000 homes this year and a pop. increase of a little over 7000 people. and its not oil and gas driving the economy its potash for the most part. i have to laugh at these comments from winnipegers

[Biff]

roccerfeller, it is neat to compare the lists you have shown. As early as 2008, just 3 years ago Winnipeg was forecasting our CMA population of approximately 760,000 by 2021. This is where we are at today in 2011. We have definitely picked up the pace.

It would be nice to hit the 800,000 CMA mark by 2015 as predicted in this years forecast.

[armorand93]

Originally Posted by Winnipegger@Heart

I think he meant skilled people.

exactly, since Ontario is mostly manafacturing and officeworkers anyway

[Riverman]

I think it would be pretty difficult to entice people from southern Ontario to Manitoba.

[jmt18325]

Why? Winnipeg isnt't really a bad place. Every time I go, it looks more and more modern.

[chrisallard5454]

Yeah, but most people live in there own little worlds. I rarely hear good things about people from down here about Winnipeg, excluding of course the return of the Jets. Most people are ignorant about how Winnipeg is doing. Most people don't pay attention to the influx of amazing things happening outside a city of their own. When I tell people here that I am moving back there, their response always falls on the lines of, "Are you f---ing crazy? Why would you want to move there? It is way to cold up there for me." Most of whom have never been, and will never go to Winnipeg, but hold on to their ignorant bias.