OMB changes MSA and CSA!

[N90]

The OMB changed the definitions for MSA and CSA.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-conten...etin-18-04.pdf

This is SF CSA now

San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA Combined Statistical Area

Merced, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area
Modesto, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area
Napa, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area
San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area
Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area
Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area
Stockton, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area
Vallejo, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area

It's CSA caught up to CHI and DC

[dimondpark]

thanks to manitopiaaa@CD for his diligence in researching these changes...

Metro Area MSA Changes:
Atlanta: None

Austin: None

Baltimore: None

Boston: None

Charlotte: +Anson

Chicago: None, Kendall County moved from Chicago Metro Division to Elgin

Cincinnati: +Franklin County, IN

Cleveland: None

Columbus: None

Dallas: -Hood, Somervell Counties

Denver: None

Detroit: None

Houston: None

Kansas City: None

Las Vegas: None

Los Angeles: None

Memphis: -Benton County, MS

Miami: None

Milwaukee: None

Minneapolis: -Sibley County

Nashville: -Hickman County

New Orleans: None

New York: -Dutchess, Orange, Putnam Counties, New Brunswick made a Metropolitan Division,

Orlando: None

Philadelphia: None

Phoenix: None

Pittsburgh: None

Portland: None

Raleigh: None

Richmond: -Caroline, +King and Queen

Sacramento: None

Saint Louis: None

Salt Lake City: None

San Antonio: None

San Diego: None

San Francisco: None

San Jose: None

Seattle: None

Tampa: None

Tulsa: None

Virginia Beach: +Camden County, NC; Southampton County, VA

Washington: +Madison County, VA

Now here's where it get's interesting...

Combined Statistical Area CSA Changes:
Atlanta: -Calhoun Micro (Gordon Co.), +Cornelia Micro (Habersham Co.), +Rome MSA, +Toccoa Micro

Austin: No CSA

Boston: None

Charlotte: None

Chicago: None

Cincinnati: None (Dayton was not added)

Cleveland: +Wooster Micro (adds another 116,038)

Columbus: None

Dallas: +Granbury Micro, -Sulphur Springs Micro (basically loses Hopkins County and what it loses to its MSA becomes part of the CSA)

Dayton: None (survives as CSA)

Denver: None

Detroit: None

Greensboro: None

Greenville: +Union Micro

Harrisburg: None

Hartford: None (Springfield was not added)

Houston: None

Indianapolis: None

Jacksonville: None

Kansas City: None

Knoxville: None

Las Vegas: -Lake Havasu MSA

Los Angeles: None

Louisville: None

McAllen: None (Brownsville was not added)

Memphis: None

Miami: +Key West Micro, -Okeechobee Micro

Milwaukee: It looks like it lost the Elkhorn part of Whitewater Micro

Minneapolis: +Owatonna Micro

Nashville: None

New Orleans: None

New York: -Allentown MSA +Poughkeepsie MSA (I assume this is what was removed from Metro); (Trenton was not returned to Philly, although the Trenton MSA is now Trenton-Princeton MSA)

North Port: None

Oklahoma City: None

Omaha: None

Orlando: +Lakeland MSA (Polk County has been poached - and not by Tampa! A HUGE boost to Orlando's CSA.); +Wauchula County

Philadelphia: None

Phoenix: +Payson Micro (Phoenix becomes a CSA!)

Pittsburgh: None

Portland: None

Raleigh: -Dunn, Oxford and Sanford Micros

Richmond: Still not a CSA!

Sacramento: None

Saint Louis: None

Salt Lake City: - Summit Micro

San Antonio: None

San Diego: Still not CSA

San Francisco: +Merced AND Modesto MSAs

Savannah: +Jessup Micro

Seattle: None

Tampa: Still not CSA

Tulsa: -Tahlequah Micro

Virginia Beach: None

Washington: -Cambridge Micro

Major Numerical Population Changes to CSAs:
San Francisco +820,572
Orlando +713,894
Cleveland +116,038

New York -840,550(Allentown removed)

As far as the OP, after factoring the changes, here is where our nation's 5 largest CSAs now stand at this time:

1 New York 23,035,605
2 Los Angeles 18,788,800
3 Chicago 9,901,356
4 Washington 9,763,116
5 San Francisco 9,658,361

and their revised 2016 GDPs:

New York-Newark CSA $1.889 Trillion--->$1.847 Billion
New York MSA $1,657.457 Billion
Bridgeport MSA $102.401 Billion
New Haven MSA $44.120 Billion
Allentown MSA. $42.700 Billion-(removed)
Trenton MSA $31.203 Billion
Kingston MSA $6.088 Billion
East Stroudsburg MSA $5.995 Billion

Los Angeles-Long Beach CSA $1.199 Trillion
Los Angeles MSA $1,001.677 Billion
Riverside MSA $149.059 Billion
Oxnard MSA $48.517 Billion

San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland CSA $821.022 Billion---> $849.006 Billion
San Francisco MSA $470.618 Billion
San Jose MSA $252.487 Billion
Santa Rosa MSA $27.311 Billion
Stockton MSA $26.190 Billion
Vallejo MSA $20.295 Billion
Santa Cruz MSA $13.581 Billion
Napa MSA $10.540 Billion

Merced MSA 8.254 Billion(added)
Modesto MSA 19.730 Billion(added)

Washington-Baltimore-Arlington CSA $724.304 Billion
Washington MSA $509.224 Billion
Baltimore MSA $187.395 Billion
Hagerstown MSA $9.723 Billion
Chambersburg MSA $5.310 Billion
Winchester MSA $6.296 Billion
California-Lexington Park MSA $6.356 Billion

Chicago-Naperville CSA $659.159 Billion
Chicago MSA $651.222 Billion
Kankakee MSA $4.103 Billion
Michigan City MSA $3.834 Billion

[dimondpark]

Also I'm glad Berkeley is now included in the SF metro name as it's probably the 3rd most prominent and well know city in the MSA:

San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA Metro Area

[mikecolley]

Does anyone know what changed in their definition of MSA and CSA, and why they changed it?

[Makid]

Just a quick note regarding the Salt Lake City CSA change. Summit County wasn't removed, they added a Micropolitan Statistical Area which combined Summit County and they added Wasatch County into the the new Heber, UT Micropolitan Statistical Area.

Salt Lake City-Provo-Orem, UT Combined Statistical Area
Heber, UT Micropolitan Statistical Area - Summit County and Wasatch County
Ogden-Clearfield, UT Metropolitan Statistical Area - Weber, Davis, Box Elder, and Morgan Counties
Provo-Orem, UT Metropolitan Statistical Area - Utah and Juab Counties
Salt Lake City, UT Metropolitan Statistical Area - Salt Lake and Tooele Counties

So + Wasatch, Box Elder, Morgan, and Juab Counties for Salt Lake City CSA's change.

[Crawford]

I'm not seeing these MSA/CSA changes. I could be reading the release wrong, but it doesn't appear they're redefining MSAs or CSAs but rather redefining Metropolitan Divisions within the MSAs or CSAs.

[dimondpark]

So back to the top 5 CSAs using the new definitions, I did some quick calculations to determine the average annual growth from 2010-2017 and applied that to 2018-2020. Obviously no one has a crystal ball, but if growth in the next 3 years remains similar to the last 7, then 2020 might look like this...

CSA.......................2010 Pop.......2017 Pop
New York.............. 22,255,491.....23,035,605
Los Angeles.......... 17,877,006......18,788,800
Chicago.................. 9,840,929.........9,901,356
Washington ............9,051,961.........9,765,772
San Francisco......... 8,923,942........9,658,361

CSA/2010-2017 Growth/Average Annual Growth
LA +911,794..........+5.09%....+130,256
NY +780,114.........+3.60%.....+111,444
SF +734,619..........+7.86%.....+106,231
DC +713,811.........+7.77%.....+101,973
Chicago +60,427...+0.61%........+8,632

CSA/2018-2020 Projected Growth
LA +390,768
NY +334,334
SF +314,836
DC +305,919
Chicago +25,897

Projected Top 5 2020:
New York........23,369,939
Los Angeles....19,179,568
Washington.....10,071,691
San Francisco...9,973,697
Chicago.............9,927,253

[Obadno]

HAHA I never expected Payson of all places to create a CSA

Just an FYI the Payson micripolitan area has about 20,000 people at the absolute most

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by mikecolley

Does anyone know what changed in their definition of MSA and CSA, and why they changed it?

The whole first couple of changes explains it but TBH it’s probably just because they revisit the definitions every several years to keep them accurate and useful

[LMich]

Basically the only way to add an subtract counties is by commuter data. I assume, then, that they have the (yet-to-be-released) 2012-2016 American Community Survey commuting data. Prior to this it was based on the 2009-2013 community data. Prior to that, the only other revisions that could be made absent the new commuting data was population growth or decline, and all that meant was elevation micropolitan statistical areas to metropolitan statistical areas or vice versa.

Anyway, major changes in Michigan:

1. Grand Rapids MSA: -Barry, +Ionia / CSA: -Barry
2. Lansing MSA: +Shiawassee / CSA: No longer a CSA
3. Kalamazoo MSA: -Van Buren / CSA: -Van Buren, +Branch

No significant population or land gain or loss for Grand Rapids MSA, nor does the growth rate change much. New population is 1,062,818 versus the previous 1,059,113. Lansing's CSA has become it's MSA, so the population goes from about 478,000 to 546,000 for 2017. Kalamazoo's MSA losing Van Buren makes the population drop from 338,338 to just the population of Kalamazoo county in 2017: 262,985. The Kalamazoo CSA goes from 533,413 to 501,470.

Lansing's growth numbers take a hit as Shiawassee County is posting significant losses, whereas the three central counties of the old MSA were growing. Kalamazoo's growth numbers improve dropping Van Burean which was losing population. It's CSA isn't much changed because every county but Kalamazoo is losing population.

[Pavlov's Dog]

Very interesting to see that the US will most likely go from 2 CSAs with >10 million currently to 4 or 5 within just a few years. Chicago will probably go from its current 3rd place to 5th within a decade.

[dimondpark]

Originally Posted by Obadno

HAHA I never expected Payson of all places to create a CSA

Just an FYI the Payson micripolitan area has about 20,000 people at the absolute most

Prior to 2001, Combined Statistical Areas were actually called CMSAs, Combined Metropolitan Statistical Areas, but in 2001 the OMB introduced Micropolitan Statistical Areas and so to keep the "M" in CMSA would have created confusion because not all CMSAs would be comprised of MSAs, some would also have Micro Areas, so they dropped the M and now we simply have CSAs.

The problem with that is that the omission of the M has caused confusion because suddenly a chorus of dectractors emerged, usually folks who have the audacity to say that CSAs are meant to 'prop up' certain cities to the 'detriment' of others, and that's just ridiculous.

To them I would invite to take a drive from the bay shore to Modesto on a weekday afternoon and then tell us we arent a interdependent region.

typical 4:30pm M-F

[dave8721]

So Key West and Vero Beach are one CSA now. That would be like an 7-hour drive. For those keeping track that is a 300 mile drive, DC to NYC is a shorter drive.

[emathias]

Originally Posted by dimondpark

...

To them I would invite to take a drive from the bay shore to Modesto on a weekday afternoon and then tell us we arent a interdependent region.

typical 4:30pm M-F
...

Interdependent AND horrible at regional planning ... I mean, traffic would still be bad, but imagine if, in between San Francisco and San Jose, every CalTrain stop had a square mile of highrises around it, with buses or trams snaking out from it, connecting to the office parks and lower-density residential areas.

[TimCity2000]

how often are MSA and CSA definitions revised?

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by TimCity2000

how often are MSA and CSA definitions revised?

probably not often enough but likely when the census beuro produces new population findings and/or estimates.

[pdxtex]

why doesn't detroit ever include windsor or port huron?? that would put it well above 6 million. just saying....

[Reverberation]

Originally Posted by dimondpark

Prior to 2001, Combined Statistical Areas were actually called CMSAs, Combined Metropolitan Statistical Areas, but in 2001 the OMB introduced Micropolitan Statistical Areas and so to keep the "M" in CMSA would have created confusion because not all CMSAs would be comprised of MSAs, some would also have Micro Areas, so they dropped the M and now we simply have CSAs.

The problem with that is that the omission of the M has caused confusion because suddenly a chorus of dectractors emerged, usually folks who have the audacity to say that CSAs are meant to 'prop up' certain cities to the 'detriment' of others, and that's just ridiculous.

To them I would invite to take a drive from the bay shore to Modesto on a weekday afternoon and then tell us we arent a interdependent region.

typical 4:30pm M-F

I wonder how much the Bay Area’s insane housing costs have contributed to the CSA expansion. Altamont Pass is jammed at 5:00am with people pushed out to more or less Stockton commuting to SV or the BART station in Pleasanton to catch the train the rest of the way in. I saw a good story on it where people were waking up at 3:30am to get home by 7:00pm.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by pdxtex

why doesn't detroit ever include windsor or port huron?? that would put it well above 6 million. just saying....

San Diego doesn't get Tijuana and Ensenada, El Paso doesn't get Juarez.

Every border city and town would more than double if it included the Mexican counterpart

[LMich]

Originally Posted by TimCity2000

how often are MSA and CSA definitions revised?

Delineations are annual. But, again, the only major changes come when four-year averages are taken of American Community Survey commuter data. The last major changes used 2009-2013 commuter data. I imagine that these major changes were made because the 2012-2016 data has been finalized. All other annual changes are the result of population change, and the only thing this would change for an area is a city becoming a micropolitan or metropolitan area, or falling backout of micropolitan or metropolitan. So, what's that? Maybe two big revisions a decade?

Originally Posted by pdxtex

why doesn't detroit ever include windsor or port huron?? that would put it well above 6 million. just saying....

Even if the U.S. Census Bureau did measure across borders, the commuting thresholds between Detroit and Windsor wouldn't be enough to even put them in a CSA together, let alone an MSA. While there is ton of economic and tourist traffic between the two areas, the actual employment commuter numbers are actually pretty small.