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  #8001  
Old Posted Aug 15, 2018, 12:05 AM
YYCFlier YYCFlier is offline
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Ugh, I hope you are wrong on your predictions. I want new service to YYC, I don't want WS to cannibalize existing routes and take them over from other carriers (NRT, AMS and PEK). That's the last thing we need. WS will always dominate at YYC but I don't want a fortress hub and I'd rather they send all 10 789s to YYZ then take over existing routes.
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  #8002  
Old Posted Aug 15, 2018, 2:19 PM
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LO 044 LO 044 is offline
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Originally Posted by Cage View Post
YYC-AMS (KL cuts their flight, but keeps YEG-AMS and WS cuts YEG-LGW).

The YEG/YWG to LGW service is not premium cabin route, so no reason to put these routes onto Dreamliner. If WS sees a continual roll for the 763 past summer 2019, these services might stick around.
I guess i don't know how well the relationship between WS and KL is currently but if YEG isn't a premier destination for a variety of reasons then why do you think KL would let WS keep the "better" route into YYC?

How about YEG-AMS on the WS 763? Of course many people seem to say that WS 763's are not worth keeping unless absolutely necessary. Are these 763's really any worse than Rouge 763's?

And if KL and WS enter a joint venture then it really doesn't matter who flies the plane. Am i correct? In that scenario wouldn't you let KL keep the flights to AMS while WS looks elsewhere with the 789's?
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  #8003  
Old Posted Aug 15, 2018, 3:25 PM
Tobuz Tobuz is offline
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Originally Posted by hollywoodcory View Post
MEX got axed? I’m still seeing booking being available in February?

Edit: never mind, I see it now. Must not have rolled over in its booking system quite yet.
I’m confused ... as of today (Aug 15) I still see YYC-MEX non-stop being sold right through late spring of 2019.

WestJet is still showing a daily 737-700 round trip.

Where do you see this route being axed?

(I’m crossing my fingers that it continues. Fantastic to have this service.)
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  #8004  
Old Posted Aug 15, 2018, 5:11 PM
CloudInspector CloudInspector is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tobuz View Post
I’m confused ... as of today (Aug 15) I still see YYC-MEX non-stop being sold right through late spring of 2019.

WestJet is still showing a daily 737-700 round trip.

Where do you see this route being axed?

(I’m crossing my fingers that it continues. Fantastic to have this service.)
I’m also able to book both YVR/YYC to MEX on the WestJet website, does anybody have a source for the cancellation?
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  #8005  
Old Posted Aug 15, 2018, 5:46 PM
Acey Acey is online now
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Originally Posted by LO 044 View Post
Are these 763's really any worse than Rouge 763's?
Well yeah, they're older. Rouge has old ones too, but a good handful less than 20 years old.
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  #8006  
Old Posted Aug 15, 2018, 7:13 PM
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hollywoodcory hollywoodcory is offline
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Originally Posted by Tobuz View Post
I’m confused ... as of today (Aug 15) I still see YYC-MEX non-stop being sold right through late spring of 2019.

WestJet is still showing a daily 737-700 round trip.

Where do you see this route being axed?

(I’m crossing my fingers that it continues. Fantastic to have this service.)
The timetable or flight schedule only shows it through October 21. I’m surprised though that it is still bookable. Are the fares still showing like $1000+ each way?
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  #8007  
Old Posted Aug 15, 2018, 7:25 PM
Acey Acey is online now
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Originally Posted by hollywoodcory View Post
The timetable or flight schedule only shows it through October 21. I’m surprised though that it is still bookable. Are the fares still showing like $1000+ each way?
I'm trying to find out more info on the specifics for MEX. One of my WS guys said "it's just not there for us".

It's a long history of MEX being unable to work for this town despite good loads... and it sucks.
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  #8008  
Old Posted Aug 15, 2018, 9:38 PM
Cage Cage is offline
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Originally Posted by LO 044 View Post
I guess i don't know how well the relationship between WS and KL is currently but if YEG isn't a premier destination for a variety of reasons then why do you think KL would let WS keep the "better" route into YYC?

How about YEG-AMS on the WS 763? Of course many people seem to say that WS 763's are not worth keeping unless absolutely necessary. Are these 763's really any worse than Rouge 763's?

And if KL and WS enter a joint venture then it really doesn't matter who flies the plane. Am i correct? In that scenario wouldn't you let KL keep the flights to AMS while WS looks elsewhere with the 789's?
If the JV is done correctly, then it becomes a metal neutral operation (so revenues and costs are standardized). WS gets YYC-AMS because they need a place to park their Dreamliners and the Dreamliner cabin can sell better on YYC than YEG.

KL gets YEG-AMS to keep the KL pilots happy. Take a look at todays rumor that AC #2 person, Ben Smith, is in the shortlist for the AF/KL CEO #1 spot. The AF/KL unions are miffed because Ben Smith is well known for skillfully bringing about the new complex JV operations and wringing out costs from the introduction of LCC airlines (like Rouge).
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  #8009  
Old Posted Aug 16, 2018, 3:38 PM
thenoflyzone thenoflyzone is offline
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Originally Posted by Acey View Post
I'm trying to find out more info on the specifics for MEX. One of my WS guys said "it's just not there for us".

It's a long history of MEX being unable to work for this town despite good loads... and it sucks.
If WS cant make YYC-MEX work, with no competition on the route, how on earth are they going to make YYC-Asia work. I just dont see it. If AC abandons YYC-NRT and WS jumps on, it might stick, since the market is already stimulated. Anything else out of YYC heading westbound is pure nonsense. Maybe ICN if they get a deal going with Skyteam, but even then....
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  #8010  
Old Posted Aug 16, 2018, 5:31 PM
Acey Acey is online now
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I obviously don't know the exact intricacies of why MEX isn't working, but it does seem a bit of a stretch to apply the economics of a 737 MEX run to a 787 Asia run, directly. I'd also heard about the notion of Asia being a losing effort initially for WS, which Cage just mentioned. Perhaps, dissimilarly, WS was not interested in MEX being a losing run at any stage.

Unrelated, first Frontier run to LAS went yesterday afternoon, forgot to run down there and check loads but I'd heard earlier that advance bookings for both LAS and DEN were strong for them through the end of summer (not surprising given the fares).
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  #8011  
Old Posted Aug 16, 2018, 8:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Acey View Post
I obviously don't know the exact intricacies of why MEX isn't working, but it does seem a bit of a stretch to apply the economics of a 737 MEX run to a 787 Asia run, directly. I'd also heard about the notion of Asia being a losing effort initially for WS, which Cage just mentioned. Perhaps, dissimilarly, WS was not interested in MEX being a losing run at any stage.

Unrelated, first Frontier run to LAS went yesterday afternoon, forgot to run down there and check loads but I'd heard earlier that advance bookings for both LAS and DEN were strong for them through the end of summer (not surprising given the fares).
MEX was probably cut in favour of more frequencies to sun destinations. They know they can sell more seats to CUN or PVR for higher fares then MEX.

Frontier has been exceeding my expectations. I’d expected them to be run out of town by WS, but it seems they are holding their ground pretty good. Curious if maybe we’ll get more routes or increase in frequencies in the future.
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  #8012  
Old Posted Aug 16, 2018, 9:21 PM
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Johnny Aussie Johnny Aussie is offline
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Originally Posted by hollywoodcory View Post
MEX was probably cut in favour of more frequencies to sun destinations. They know they can sell more seats to CUN or PVR for higher fares then MEX.

Frontier has been exceeding my expectations. I’d expected them to be run out of town by WS, but it seems they are holding their ground pretty good. Curious if maybe we’ll get more routes or increase in frequencies in the future.
Not sure what’s happening with LAS but the nonstop appears to be ending 12 December. I realise Frontier has a funny way of loading flights about 6 months in advance but to not show any non stops after 12 December seems a bit late to add them now if they are indeed going to continue that route.

See what happens in the long term!
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  #8013  
Old Posted Aug 16, 2018, 9:55 PM
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Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie View Post
Not sure what’s happening with LAS but the nonstop appears to be ending 12 December. I realise Frontier has a funny way of loading flights about 6 months in advance but to not show any non stops after 12 December seems a bit late to add them now if they are indeed going to continue that route.

See what happens in the long term!
LAS was originally loaded all the way to February, just as DEN is. Perhaps the LAS route won't be year-round but just seasonal? I guess we'll just have to wait for the next schedule extension.
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  #8014  
Old Posted Aug 17, 2018, 1:55 AM
Acey Acey is online now
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Originally Posted by hollywoodcory View Post
They know they can sell more seats to CUN or PVR for higher fares then MEX.
The actual pricing of MEX does not reflect this, especially with CUN/PVR packages taken into consideration.
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  #8015  
Old Posted Aug 17, 2018, 3:00 AM
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Originally Posted by hollywoodcory View Post
LAS was originally loaded all the way to February, just as DEN is. Perhaps the LAS route won't be year-round but just seasonal? I guess we'll just have to wait for the next schedule extension.
I think YYC-DEN on F9 at least has the DEN hub to allow connections whereas YYC-LAS is just O&D reliant. Perhaps too much competition with WS and AC on that route.
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  #8016  
Old Posted Aug 17, 2018, 3:07 AM
Tobuz Tobuz is offline
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Originally Posted by hollywoodcory View Post
MEX was probably cut in favour of more frequencies to sun destinations. They know they can sell more seats to CUN or PVR for higher fares then MEX.
Leisure destinations are usually where you see the most price sensitive (and often cheap) fliers who don’t care about service levels, loyalty to a carrier, schedule, or other things. It’s a low margin, high volume business.

MEX is (errr, was) a:
- leisure destination — but more for the less price-sensitive “traveller” than “tourist” market, and
- a major, ‘global’ business centre
- and the hub for one of WestJet’s key partners, with connections to points across Latin America.

As WestJet evolves from a largely leisure carrier to a mainstream “big leagues” player, I would have thought that MEX would have fit in perfectly. If they are indeed dropping it in favour of a package holiday destination, ouch. The economics of the route must have been beyond dismal.

If they couldn’t make a market like that work - especially when timed nicely for WS connections at YYC across the prairie provinces - wow. That’s a big concern.

And, personally, I’m really disappointed that it’s gone. (And that I’m back to using UA via Houston, and clearing through two different customs/immigration authorities in each direction.).
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  #8017  
Old Posted Aug 17, 2018, 6:24 AM
Acey Acey is online now
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Originally Posted by Tobuz View Post
If they are indeed dropping it in favour of a package holiday destination, ouch.
To be fair, these 2 things could be independent... like I know for a fact WS was already planning upped frequencies to CUN for this winter. It doesn't directly have to mean that they are flying to CUN instead of MEX given the relatively wide range of changes throughout the network.
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  #8018  
Old Posted Aug 19, 2018, 1:07 PM
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hollywoodcory hollywoodcory is offline
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Originally Posted by Acey View Post
The actual pricing of MEX does not reflect this, especially with CUN/PVR packages taken into consideration.
Oh

I guess until they come out and say why, we won't really know why they cut MEX as it seemed the loads were pretty good.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie
I think YYC-DEN on F9 at least has the DEN hub to allow connections whereas YYC-LAS is just O&D reliant. Perhaps too much competition with WS and AC on that route.
The times aren't great for connections in DEN, as you would have to overnight there for most of them. LAS is a focus city for F9, and has better scheduled times for connections. Granted, it's terrible OTP hinders connections further too.
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  #8019  
Old Posted Aug 23, 2018, 12:48 AM
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News just out that Westjet is cutting network capacity by 6%. MEX gone from both YYC and YVR. YUL to Quebec City cancelled as well. Lots of frequency reductions across the board.
Really bad fiscal second quarter for them,as was predicted by anyone who follows the shares...
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  #8020  
Old Posted Aug 23, 2018, 1:55 PM
MalcolmTucker MalcolmTucker is offline
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Seems an over reaction to their quasi strike. Might have been just the criris-tunity the evolving management team needed to implement a more focused strategy.
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