Why does Boston's skyline appear unchanged from the 80s?

[PFloyd]

Originally Posted by Crawford

If he's stating something factual, then it isn't trolling. If anything, it would be the person calling for a ban who would be trolling.

He wasn't wrong re. the Chinese affected RE prices in Toronto. People can argue over the particulars, but it's true that the Toronto condo boom is heavily influenced by Chinese parking their money in a safe overseas investment, usually through family or third party.

It has been stated numerous times before, but here we go again: the massive housing construction boom in Toronto (and it really has been going almost uninterrupted since 1996) especially highrise housing is mainly due to unavailable land in the 416 area (most of it is built already), and outside in the 905 areas and beyond, the Greenbelt Conservation and the Oak Ridges Moraine areas, are intangible areas which cannot be developed! The GTA grows by more than 100,000 people every year.
Are there foreigners buying real estate in the GTA? Sure, like in any booming desirable city, but they are not by any means the driving force, not even by a long shot!
Why is that so hard to understand?

[PFloyd]

Originally Posted by JManc

I was an administrator. We also have different philosophies as to how to approach opposing views. I prefer to engage and have a dialog rather than suppress opinions I disagree with...otherwise this forum would be a boring circle jerk of people agreeing everything.

Sure, I absolutely agree with you, but in regards to this particular individual, if you look at denizen's interventions from years ago, it is very clear that his half truths and alternative facts with regards to Toronto (he never misses a chance to take a dig) amount to trolling and not normal internet forum debate. Just ask moderators LMich and KevinFromTexas. I had private conversations with both in regards to dc_denizen back in Jan 2014.

[IrishIllini]

Originally Posted by PFloyd

It has been stated numerous times before, but here we go again: the massive housing construction boom in Toronto (and it really has been going almost uninterrupted since 1996) especially highrise housing is mainly due to unavailable land in the 416 area (most of it is built already), and outside in the 905 areas and beyond, the Greenbelt Conservation and the Oak Ridges Moraine areas, are intangible areas which cannot be developed! The GTA grows by more than 100,000 people every year.
Are there foreigners buying real estate in the GTA? Sure, like in any booming desirable city, but they are not by any means the driving force, not even by a long shot!
Why is that so hard to understand?

Toronto is a unique case study. The economy isn't bad, but it's not at all reflective of housing prices. When an economy the size of Toronto's gets hooked on foreign (Chinese) money, things can go south very quickly if the money stops coming in.

People have been sounding alarm bells about Toronto's housing market for months (years?). I recall reading about prices dropping over the summer and there was mass hysteria on the internet with people screaming the party was over. Things seem to be humming along still, but I believe mortgage debt in Canada has surpassed that of the US prior to the financial crisis. It makes zero sense that Toronto has built at the rate that it has and still has a median sales price near $800k. Especially when you consider that Toronto isn't really hemmed in by anything outside of Lake Ontario and there's plenty of room for growth. There's no real economic or geographic reason for prices to be that high, which is typically the driver of sky-high real estate. It's a lot like Chicago in this case, but Chicago has a larger economy AND the benefit of being an American city, yet the RE market in Chicago is considered undervalued and median sales prices are less than 1/3 of what they are in Toronto.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by PFloyd

It has been stated numerous times before, but here we go again: the massive housing construction boom in Toronto (and it really has been going almost uninterrupted since 1996) especially highrise housing is mainly due to unavailable land in the 416 area (most of it is built already), and outside in the 905 areas and beyond, the Greenbelt Conservation and the Oak Ridges Moraine areas, are intangible areas which cannot be developed! The GTA grows by more than 100,000 people every year.
Are there foreigners buying real estate in the GTA? Sure, like in any booming desirable city, but they are not by any means the driving force, not even by a long shot!
Why is that so hard to understand?

This is essentially wrong. Toronto has particularly high RE prices for a very particular product, and that product has a very particular influence. Overseas money, particularly Chinese money, plays a huge role in local RE, especially in the core.

Toronto was not expensive, and did not have much luxury highrise condo product, until relatively recently, and that market is certainly tied to overseas investors. Toronto, Vancouver, and Miami are RE outliers in terms of international investors.

[PFloyd]

Originally Posted by Crawford

This is essentially wrong. Toronto has particularly high RE prices for a very particular product, and that product has a very particular influence. Overseas money, particularly Chinese money, plays a huge role in local RE, especially in the core.

Toronto was not expensive, and did not have much luxury highrise condo product, until relatively recently, and that market is certainly tied to overseas investors. Toronto, Vancouver, and Miami are RE outliers in terms of international investors.

Well no; in my previous statement I missed a major group that is fueling the demand: single family detached homes in the central area of the city, have become increasingly expensive (average price of a single detached house is $1.5 million). There are so many young families that have been pushed to condos, and priced out of the housing market.

[IrishIllini]

Originally Posted by PFloyd

Well no; in my previous statement I missed a major group that is fueling the demand: single family detached homes in the central area of the city, have become increasingly expensive (average price of a single detached house is $1.5 million). There are so many young families that have been pushed to condos, and priced out of the housing market.

How many detached SFHs are in the central area? I'd be genuinely shocked to learn they made up anything more than 10% of the housing stock in the central area, but I'm not familiar enough with Toronto to know off hand.

[montréaliste]

Originally Posted by IrishIllini

Toronto is a unique case study. The economy isn't bad, but it's not at all reflective of housing prices. When an economy the size of Toronto's gets hooked on foreign (Chinese) money, things can go south very quickly if the money stops coming in.

People have been sounding alarm bells about Toronto's housing market for months (years?). I recall reading about prices dropping over the summer and there was mass hysteria on the internet with people screaming the party was over. Things seem to be humming along still, but I believe mortgage debt in Canada has surpassed that of the US prior to the financial crisis. It makes zero sense that Toronto has built at the rate that it has and still has a median sales price near $800k. Especially when you consider that Toronto isn't really hemmed in by anything outside of Lake Ontario and there's plenty of room for growth. There's no real economic or geographic reason for prices to be that high, which is typically the driver of sky-high real estate. It's a lot like Chicago in this case, but Chicago has a larger economy AND the benefit of being an American city, yet the RE market in Chicago is considered undervalued and median sales prices are less than 1/3 of what they are in Toronto.

Yes well, you almost put your finger on it but skimmed over an important fact; the financial crisis.

The financial debacle in the US really effed the property values in areas like Chicago, that is, cities with negative migration. The RE sector in Canada plays by differemt rules and while I agree the prices are too high, the reason for Chicago's relatively tame pricing is tied to the well known fiasco that happened in your market.

[PFloyd]

Originally Posted by IrishIllini

How many detached SFHs are in the central area? I'd be genuinely shocked to learn they made up anything more than 10% of the housing stock in the central area, but I'm not familiar enough with Toronto to know off hand.

Don't mean to embarrass you, but you guys down south don't really like doing research about places beyond your borders-even in the age of internet!
Just Google Earth Toronto, and you will see how wrong your statement is.

[ue]

Originally Posted by IrishIllini

Toronto is a unique case study. The economy isn't bad, but it's not at all reflective of housing prices. When an economy the size of Toronto's gets hooked on foreign (Chinese) money, things can go south very quickly if the money stops coming in.

People have been sounding alarm bells about Toronto's housing market for months (years?). I recall reading about prices dropping over the summer and there was mass hysteria on the internet with people screaming the party was over. Things seem to be humming along still, but I believe mortgage debt in Canada has surpassed that of the US prior to the financial crisis. It makes zero sense that Toronto has built at the rate that it has and still has a median sales price near $800k. Especially when you consider that Toronto isn't really hemmed in by anything outside of Lake Ontario and there's plenty of room for growth. There's no real economic or geographic reason for prices to be that high, which is typically the driver of sky-high real estate. It's a lot like Chicago in this case, but Chicago has a larger economy AND the benefit of being an American city, yet the RE market in Chicago is considered undervalued and median sales prices are less than 1/3 of what they are in Toronto.

As the post you quoted stated, Toronto is not just hemmed in by the lake. It is surrounded on all other sides by the Greenbelt, designed to limit sprawl, focus on sustainable development, and protect Southern Ontario farmland, which is probably the most productive farmland outside of British Columbia, and with far more area than BC has. It has a more temperate climate, allowing food that can't really be grown in the Prairies or Quebec, to be grown domestically. Canada isn't like the US, where there is an abundance of arable land. Thus in BC and Ontario, where productive, temperate farmland, in limited supply, is increasingly encroached upon, there have been limits to further urbanization, through the Greenbelt in Ontario and Agricultural Land Reserve in BC.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by ue

As the post you quoted stated, Toronto is not just hemmed in by the lake. It is surrounded on all other sides by the Greenbelt, designed to limit sprawl, focus on sustainable development, and protect Southern Ontario farmland, which is probably the most productive farmland outside of British Columbia, and with far more area than BC has.

This has nothing to do with what we're discussing. The particularly high prices for core condo product, are, to a great extent, driven by overseas money. You have Toronto condos being hawked in Hong Kong and Guangzhou. Third parties broker the product. so the ownership doesn't necessarily register as non-Canadian.

These are very particular fundamentals, shared by only a few other NA cities where there is intense foreign interest.

[PFloyd]

Originally Posted by Crawford

This has nothing to do with what we're discussing. The particularly high prices for core condo product, are, to a great extent, driven by overseas money. You have Toronto condos being hawked in Hong Kong and Guangzhou. Third parties broker the product. so the ownership doesn't necessarily register as non-Canadian.

These are very particular fundamentals, shared by only a few other NA cities where there is intense foreign interest.

Again, no. It does have everything to do with prices. Basic supply-demand, anyone? And again, no foreign buyers are still a fraction of the sales, no matter how much you insist on your Chinese 'alternate fact' - and by the way, I am only referring to Toronto. I am not that familiar with Vancouver, so I will refrain from commenting on cities I know little about. Hint, hint.

[IrishIllini]

Originally Posted by montréaliste

Yes well, you almost put your finger on it but skimmed over an important fact; the financial crisis.

The financial debacle in the US really effed the property values in areas like Chicago, that is, cities with negative migration. The RE sector in Canada plays by differemt rules and while I agree the prices are too high, the reason for Chicago's relatively tame pricing is tied to the well known fiasco that happened in your market.

This doesn't hold water. Even at the peak of the frenzy, Chicago's RE prices were mostly in line with incomes and the local economy. Some bombed out neighborhoods saw tremendous amounts of equity wiped away, but they should never have been commanding the prices they were. Hindsight is 20/20. There are also more people living in Chicagoland today than there were in 2007, even though the region's population growth has stalled in recent years.

I'd suggest that you look into Dallas, Atlanta, and Houston. All three have positive domestic migration and yet offer comparatively cheap housing compared to Toronto. All three cities have an economy comparable to Toronto. All three cities housing costs are climbing, but not by 30 percent per year. Residents of Dallas, Atlanta, and Houston looking to buy will likely see a larger percentage of their income go towards housing than existing homeowners, but it's still within reason compared to their income. That's not at all true of Toronto or Vancouver, where median sales prices are WAAAAAAY above three or four times median incomes. Could the differences in housing costs be because Canada has seen tremendous influx of big Chinese money? There's a lot of nuance, but there's no denying China has played a huge role in shaping the Canadian (Toronto/Vancouver) housing markets.

[IrishIllini]

Originally Posted by PFloyd

Don't mean to embarrass you, but you guys down south don't really like doing research about places beyond your borders-even in the age of internet!
Just Google Earth Toronto, and you will see how wrong your statement is.

What is Toronto's central area in this context? Is it old Toronto? Toronto post annexation? Is it Downtown Toronto? In the US, when someone says central Chicago or central LA, I'm thinking the center of the city, or downtown. I would be very surprised to learn that detached SFHs made up even a plurality in downtown Toronto.

[SHiRO]

Originally Posted by PFloyd

Sure, I absolutely agree with you, but in regards to this particular individual, if you look at denizen's interventions from years ago, it is very clear that his half truths and alternative facts with regards to Toronto (he never misses a chance to take a dig) amount to trolling and not normal internet forum debate. Just ask moderators LMich and KevinFromTexas. I had private conversations with both in regards to dc_denizen back in Jan 2014.

Exactely.