1. While condos are filling up, the prices are too low by far.
2. A condo needs to make sense at today's prices, not projected future prices, due to the need to presell. (In contrast, apartments can project future prices at the opening and years later.)
3. Buyers won't trust the pre-sale concept for a long time.
4. Neither will lenders. Not until demand looks rock solid.
As for the First Hill site, that might be the Polyclinic parking garage. It's not a big project, though apparently it'll be possible to build on top of it later.
On Capitol Hill, the Pike/Pine corridor might have that sort of population increase, since it's lower density (residentially) than the areas around it. Love to see neighborhoods approach true high density (say 50,000/sm plus) while retaining/growing character. Speaking of which, the 70-unit apartment project at 10th & Union is apparently starting....a protester is apparently trying to marry the building, with a wedding dress and all her friends, while it's being demolished...
1. While condos are filling up, the prices are too low by far.
2. A condo needs to make sense at today's prices, not projected future prices, due to the need to presell. (In contrast, apartments can project future prices at the opening and years later.)
3. Buyers won't trust the pre-sale concept for a long time.
4. Neither will lenders. Not until demand looks rock solid.
As for the First Hill site, that might be the Polyclinic parking garage. It's not a big project, though apparently it'll be possible to build on top of it later.
Good points about condos..........they may well slow the start of anything new.
Quote:
On Capitol Hill, the Pike/Pine corridor might have that sort of population increase, since it's lower density (residentially) than the areas around it. Love to see neighborhoods approach true high density (say 50,000/sm plus) while retaining/growing character. Speaking of which, the 70-unit apartment project at 10th & Union is apparently starting....a protester is apparently trying to marry the building, with a wedding dress and all her friends, while it's being demolished...
Most of the projects I saw under construction were along Madison..........but yeah, lots of construction in the Pike/Pine corridor. I am not sure I want density as high as 50k /sm...........that's nearly double NY City's density of 27k/sm. I would be happy with numbers between 10-20k/sm.
Capitol Hill already has a census tract over 50,000/sm, and another over 40,000/sm...combined that's everything from around Roy to somewhere south of Denny, between Broadway and I-5. The north half of First Hill and chunks of Belltown and the U-District must be at least 50,000/sm, and lots of other pockets around town are too. Infill of the current variety will get substantial areas over the 50,000 figure, though census tracts don't necessarily align well with the housing density.
A density of 10-20,000 wouldn't be much. That's townhouses. You certainly couldn't support retail or transit anywhere near the Capitol Hill level.
Manhattan has about 70,000/sm. That NY figure is skewed by Staten Island and the distant parts of Queens and the Bronx...
A lot of Capitol Hill buildings are in the 200+ unit per acre range. If you figure 150 just to be safe, and make that 90 to account for roads and parks (guessing), that's 57,600 units per acre. That assume they're a similar mix to today...lots of fairly small units. Figure 1.5 people each, or 86,400/sm if everything gets built. Not everything will get built, so 50,000 seems like a reasonable outcome.
Capitol Hill already has a census tract over 50,000/sm, and another over 40,000/sm...combined that's everything from around Roy to somewhere south of Denny, between Broadway and I-5. The north half of First Hill and chunks of Belltown and the U-District must be at least 50,000/sm, and lots of other pockets around town are too. Infill of the current variety will get substantial areas over the 50,000 figure, though census tracts don't necessarily align well with the housing density.
A density of 10-20,000 wouldn't be much. That's townhouses. You certainly couldn't support retail or transit anywhere near the Capitol Hill level.
Manhattan has about 70,000/sm. That NY figure is skewed by Staten Island and the distant parts of Queens and the Bronx...
A lot of Capitol Hill buildings are in the 200+ unit per acre range. If you figure 150 just to be safe, and make that 90 to account for roads and parks (guessing), that's 57,600 units per acre. That assume they're a similar mix to today...lots of fairly small units. Figure 1.5 people each, or 86,400/sm if everything gets built. Not everything will get built, so 50,000 seems like a reasonable outcome.
I wonder what the NYC boroughs have? It makes a difference to have two or three dense but scattered population tracks and another thing to have them stacked 5 to 10-deep, repeat, repeat. Could Seattle ever get to anything like SF or DC?
Brooklyn was about 35,000 if I recall. If you subtract the 1/3 least dense areas, maybe it would average 40,000 or 45,000?
Manhattan feels dense not because of its own residents, but because of the millions of commuters who work there also, plus tourists and shoppers. It has a lot of neighborhoods well over 100,000/sm that are fairly quiet.
Perhaps this is the missing link. An elementary school in Denny Triangle or SLU would be great. Something between Denny and Mercer? Would it be an urban school say with a playground on the roof? Or, wow, even incorporated into the new waterfront?
The size of 1200 Madison is such a welcome sight. That one-floor bank and surface parking lot are sooooo GONE! I hope some of the other long-awaited proposals on First Hill will start construction in the near future.
Note: 6th & Blanchard now has a name, "Via6".
What material is that at the base of the Colman Tower?
Perhaps this is the missing link. An elementary school in Denny Triangle or SLU would be great. Something between Denny and Mercer? Would it be an urban school say with a playground on the roof? Or, wow, even incorporated into the new waterfront?
I think they should get Bill Gates behind it..........that's not that far from his foundation headquarters.
The 440' 2nd and Pike tower is moving ahead, along with a tower in Pioneer Square - woot!
From today's DJC:
February 13, 2012
Greg Smith's big plans
By MARC STILES
Journal Staff Reporter
The newly renamed West Edge Tower project near Pike Place Market could have a boutique hotel in addition to apartments and retail, says developer Greg Smith, who is seeking equity partners.
Seattle development company Urban Visions is moving ahead on two mixed-use projects: a highrise at Second and Pike, and 200 Occidental in Pioneer Square.
I think they should get Bill Gates behind it..........that's not that far from his foundation headquarters.
That would be nice. While they're working on eradicating malaria, they could help eradicate glitches in urban livability. Might as well bring Jeff Bezos in on the discussions too.
Amazon to buy Denny Triangle property; plans 3 big office towers
In one of Seattle's biggest real-estate deals in years, Amazon.com has agreed to buy three blocks from Clise Properties and plans to build a 1 million-square-foot office tower on each.
Amazing. Bezos is either out of control or Amazon is having the mother of all growth spurts.
That, or they're entering real estate. Actually I'd love for them to do this whatever the reason. It would be a great thing even if it just lures tenants from some of those 1950s/60s mid-rise office buildings so we can convert those to residential.
I suspect this is just a purchase and any construction might be years away.
Not necessarily. Two of those blocks are around 90,000 sf and the other is nearly as big. A podium, even with accommodation for light, circulation, structure, etc., might achieve 400,000 sf or whatever. The tower could be the other 60%.
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I hope some of the other long-awaited proposals on First Hill will start construction in the near future.
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