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  #21  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2018, 7:28 PM
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Originally Posted by Taeolas View Post
The 10th slot will be Halifax happening after Nova Scotia gets 1 million, and the province amalgamates the entire province into the Halifax regional Municipality.
Halifax Regional Municipality is large but Halifax CMA is unremarkable.

There's almost no development east of Halifax but there are lots of little towns and suburbs north and west of the CMA, many of which have high shares of commuters (near 50%). In that sense Halifax is one of the more "conservative" CMAs. The population might have been significantly larger with minor changes to the census divisions.

It could hit 500,000 in only a few years if parts of Hants are included. The Halifax "commutershed" is already about 500,000.

1,000,000 is very far off though. So far off that a bunch of fundamental things could easily change before then (e.g. economy tanks, booms, immigration goes way up or down) that predictions would at best be very rough.
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  #22  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2018, 7:36 PM
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At current growth rates, the Greater Golden Horseshoe could hit 10 million in about 5 years.
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  #23  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2018, 7:36 PM
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Originally Posted by Calgarian View Post
Damn, may have already broken the 10 million mark then, if Toronto was in the USA, the MSA number would likely be the GGH (or a very large portion of it) lol.

I remember somebody actually calculated Toronto's metro population using the American formula, and IIRC Toronto's "MSA" basically corresponded to the GTAH (~7.2 million today), but its "CSA" didn't quite include the entirety of the Golden Horseshoe (again, IIRC, but KW and Guelph probably wouldn't have been included).



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Originally Posted by Taeolas View Post
Now, I'm increasingly hearing talk of KWCG; so if the Grand River city wants to become the 10th Million City in Canada, absorbing Guelph might legit be a way it can pump its numbers up, but it still feels a bit like 'cheating' to get there by swallowing the neighbour.

Depends on the "how" for me. If it's a case of X% of Guelphites deciding to drive out to Kitchener for work and thus being lumped into its CMA, then it's a statistical quirk moreso than a true measure of functional metropolitan population. However, if the two cities were to develop a robust transportation system between them then it would be able to function as a cohesive, multi-nodal metro area (almost like a mini Rhine-Ruhr or something).
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  #24  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2018, 7:41 PM
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As the thread starter used the Toronto CMA I'll use that. Quebec City, Hamilton, and Winnipeg will surely get to 1 million before Toronto gets to 10 million so it boils down to whether KW can post higher growth rates than Toronto over the next 35-40 years.

I'd say it can and will. It's far harder for a big city to continue posting the same high growth rate. Not only that but Toronto will continue to get more and more expensive. Toronto growth will start moving to cheaper/less congested places as young people and immigrants find it hard to make a go of it in Toronto.

KW is ideally situated to sponge up a lot of that growth and it has a strong economy of it's own. I'll go with 10 metros of 1 million+ population will happen first. We might even get 11 or 12 metros reach that milestone.
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  #25  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2018, 7:43 PM
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Originally Posted by PEI highway guy View Post
Where does the southwestern end of the Toronto CMA finish? Mississauga? Oakville? I checked the Stats Can website a few times and have not been able to figure this out.

Oakville. Then Burlington is within Hamilton's CMA:




Though the GTA includes Burlington, as well as the Oshawa CMA but minus some of the rural areas on the fringe:

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  #26  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2018, 8:54 PM
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Originally Posted by Taeolas View Post
It was a bit of a joking response, and also an acknowledgement that Guelph seems to be increasingly pulled into the tricity group as well.

I attended UWaterloo back in the 90's, and at the time, Cambridge was barely on the radar as far as the city went. 20 years later, and it's firmly part of the Tricity area.

Now, I'm increasingly hearing talk of KWCG; so if the Grand River city wants to become the 10th Million City in Canada, absorbing Guelph might legit be a way it can pump its numbers up, but it still feels a bit like 'cheating' to get there by swallowing the neighbour.
KWCG is the future.
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  #27  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2018, 11:41 PM
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Here is another map that includes all the CMA in the goldern horseshoe

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  #28  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2018, 11:11 PM
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The continued growth of the GTA is heavily dependent on Canadian immigration policy. If current immigration rates continue, the GTA could easily reach 10 million this century, but if a future government greatly reduced immigration, or people from abroad decided they didn’t want to move to Canada anymore, the GTA would be likely to stagnate. I saw some stats not that long ago showing net intraprovincial migration out of Toronto to other Ontario CMAs such as London, Hamilton, and K-W.

I’m not advocating one way or another about immigration, just pointing out how heavily dependent Toronto’s growth is on immigration to Canada.
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  #29  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2018, 12:53 AM
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Originally Posted by Calgarian View Post
Damn, may have already broken the 10 million mark then, if Toronto was in the USA, the MSA number would likely be the GGH (or a very large portion of it) lol.
By US standards, the Toronto MSA would include Burlington and the Oshawa CMA (since MSAs are based on upper tier municipal boundaries) with population of 6,111,072 in 2011. It would be combined with the MSAs of Hamilton, Guelph and Barrie to form the Toronto-Hamilton-Guelph-Barrie CSA which would have a population of 7,285,444.
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  #30  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2018, 3:24 AM
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Winnipeg will be next. I don't know much about Quebec City, but Hamilton has being near Toronto going for it and if GO becomes better, Hamilton economy continues to grow, I would put my money on Hamilton being #9. KWCG is growing faster than Hamilton and I think will continue to, but it's too far behind. GTA and Toronto CMA both hit 10 Million before KWCG hits 1 Million.
edit: GTA and Toronto CMA will hit 10 Million before Hamilton hits 1 Million as well.

Last edited by ZaidTrade; Sep 29, 2018 at 4:48 AM.
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  #31  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2018, 3:52 AM
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It will be close between GTA and Winnipeg, edge to GTA
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Last edited by Gdoggy; Sep 29, 2018 at 4:16 AM.
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  #32  
Old Posted Oct 4, 2018, 2:52 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HomeInMyShoes View Post
Given the growth rate in Saskatoon between 2011 and 2016 would give them a million people in 2068.
Saskatoon is the only CMA, not in the top ten, to have tripled population since 1961.
Indeed Saskatoon's million mark looks to be about 2068 if its growth rate remains consistent & if the last fifty years is any indication of it's increasing population/tripling time.



Winnipeg, Quebec City, Hamilton, & KWC will very likely hit million mark, & in that order, before Saskatoon.

Toronto reaching 10 million before KWC hitting million will likely be dependant on how Ontario commuting trends change in the coming decades, for example, one of my friend's husband commutes from just outside Birmingham to London a couple times a week and it takes less than an hour on high speed rail each way.
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  #33  
Old Posted Oct 4, 2018, 3:24 AM
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Someone forgot to move Ottawa below Edmonton on that list. Stereotypes take a long time to change I guess...
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  #34  
Old Posted Oct 5, 2018, 7:51 AM
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What I find interesting is the newish Canadians I know are moving to K-W-C while the "older stock" ones find Hamilton more appealing. For that reason I believe K-W will overtake Hamilton. It has the potential to be the next Mississauga/Brampton.
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  #35  
Old Posted Oct 5, 2018, 9:18 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by urbandreamer View Post
What I find interesting is the newish Canadians I know are moving to K-W-C while the "older stock" ones find Hamilton more appealing. For that reason I believe K-W will overtake Hamilton. It has the potential to be the next Mississauga/Brampton.
I think it’s the university. Waterloo has significant international cache and most Asian parents micromanage their kids lives about 20 years in advance. Much easier to just move to where you’ll be sending them to school.
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  #36  
Old Posted Oct 5, 2018, 11:16 AM
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Originally Posted by theman23 View Post
I think it’s the university. Waterloo has significant international cache and most Asian parents micromanage their kids lives about 20 years in advance. Much easier to just move to where you’ll be sending them to school.
Since this borders on the negative, are we even allowed to make generalizations of the sort?
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  #37  
Old Posted Oct 5, 2018, 11:51 AM
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That's not negative, just a neutral generalization.
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  #38  
Old Posted Oct 5, 2018, 12:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mistercorporate View Post
That's not negative, just a neutral generalization.
I said "borderline negative". Which I think it clearly is.
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