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  #261  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2012, 4:42 PM
suburbia suburbia is offline
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Originally Posted by MalcolmTucker View Post
Things aren't close in 20 ridings. The distributions of votes is not uniform. There are distinct groups of ridings in Calgary that are very different from each other, but they are all affected by the same events, that cause them to move.

The same event won't cause different movements in different ridings within the same block, so it is unlikely having been in a block for so long, they would diverge now.
Got ya. Makes sense. I think a huge difference maker, in addition to strategic voting, will be if the younger voters come out. I haven't seen anything about demographics shared in the polls, but my sense is, the wild rose have a real hold on older male voters, but it is quite different below 40, particularly females.

I get the sense that this is going to be a long night!
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  #262  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2012, 4:49 PM
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Minority governments just lead to extortion. The NDP will draw up a wish list and demand funding in return for supporting a budget. How us that of benefit to constituents, except for those who work for a public sector untion?
That didn't happen in the last few federal minorities, and 'm not sure it will happen here. I think enough Albertans are sick of this election, and no party will want to bring down a government and start this again anytime soon.

If there is a Wildrose minority, I suspect it will be run like the federal Conservatives: They will do what they want, act like a majority government, and dare the opposition to bring them down (On the thought that they will pick up even more support).

If it's a PC minority, they might tread more carefully... it's hard to say.
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  #263  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2012, 4:54 PM
MalcolmTucker MalcolmTucker is offline
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The gender gap is around 10 points more women support the pcs, 10 points more men support wildrose.

The group with least support for the Wildrose according to last night's forum poll (not the best methodology, but the most recent public one by far) is 18-34 year olds at 30%.
The group for the lowest support for the PCs is 45-54 year olds, at 32%.
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  #264  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2012, 7:00 PM
gammell gammell is offline
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What I actually found interesting was how Leech was speaking really slowly, such that all the uneducated who needed uplifting could understand him. LOL!

Did you have any comments on the hellfire for minorities comments by the other Pastor? It was interesting how Danielle didn't denounce the statement, saying instead that it was freedom of speech. Would she call it freedom of speech if one of her own said that the oil sands should be shut down?
Leech said "lift up," not "uplift." That is, proclaim or bring to attention. Or in his own words, "We will begin to acknowledge and esteem those who have received achievements in business, in education, in the cultural arts, in the culture of the Punjabi people." That is the achievements already exist, but aren't acknowledged by the broader society and Leech thinks he can change that. Given the way that the media only cared about what the white guy said and nothing for what the Punjabi community thought, I can see a point. (As a side note, I don't know if Leech always speaks that slowly, or if that slow speech is deliberate for an ESL audience, but I would expect it's one of those two.)

As for Hunsperger, the quote that always gets truncated reads: "You see, you can live the way you were born, and if you die the way you were born then you will suffer the rest of eternity in the lake of fire, hell, a place of eternal suffering." Notice that the sentence doesn't actually mention gays, and that the preceding sentences don't either. But every media report assumes that's who he's talking about it. I don't think he was; at least not in particular. The blog post was for his church, and he turns the whole theme on himself at the end as an example: “You know, I do understand, because I was born the same way. I was born living one way and God expects me to live another way. I can’t do that on my own and that’s why Jesus Christ came so I could be changed.” Given all that, I'm pretty sure he was writing (cumbersomely) on the topic of original sin and on redemption. That is, all people are born with a "sin nature" and need to be changed by Jesus. That's basic Christianity, but it's certainly not a popular notion these days. Thus, the post. "Pastor Writes About Basic Christian Theology" isn't much of a headline, I guess.

Both Leech and Hunsperger are surprisingly clumsy communicators, but I'm pretty sure that didn't say the things that people say they said (though they are sometimes close in Leech's case). Even when they are quoted, there's always careful editing and extra context added that shapes the quotations to a particular theme. Especially in a youtube hatchet job.

As for Danielle Smith, she's pretty clearly a libertarian. Freedom of speech and freedom of association are pretty big deals for libertarians, so it would be consistent for her to a) publicly support that member's right to hold his position and b) express the Wildrose's right to give the boot for being at odds with the party platform.
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  #265  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2012, 7:50 PM
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http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/...anielle-smith/

Chris Selley’s Full Pundit: Who’s afraid of Danielle Smith?
Chris Selley Apr 23, 2012 – 12:39 PM ET | Last Updated: Apr 23, 2012 1:36 PM ET


First to Alberta: Postmedia’s Michael Den Tandt appreciates Wildrose Party leader Danielle Smith’s stated and apparently sincere belief that people, including her candidates, “should be allowed to say what they wish, and that they should likewise individually be held to account for what they say.” We agree. We don’t think the presence of multiple “bozos,” for lack of a better term, in Canadian legislatures is a good thing; but we see only upside to said bozos being allowed to speak their minds and letting the voters decide. We also see no value in Smith publicly denouncing such candidates if she truly believes they should be allowed to spout off. That, too, is instructive for voters. That said, with regards to Wildrose candidate and evangelical pastor Allan Hunsperger, we still don’t buy the idea that attacking the Edmonton public school board for tolerating gay students on grounds that gay people will burn forever in hell constitutes a personal religious belief, rather than a political one. It’s a rather potent mixture of the two, and people have every right to be disturbed by that.

Sun Media’s Lorrie Goldstein, meanwhile, is heartened by the diminishing political returns available from pointing and shrieking at politicians who hold unpopular opinions — or even popular ones, as in the case of capital punishment — and warning that these politicians have secret plans to destroy the country/province/city/school board in question. We are heartened by this too, to a point. But an old story about a boy and a wolf comes to mind. If people completely tune out such warnings, it opens the door to extremists and, more likely, rank incompetents.

The Calgary Herald‘s Don Braid is thrilled that Alberta finally had “the passionate, full-throated, high-stakes battle many of us have hoped for since the 1970s,” but appalled by the “divisive, hate-filled, bile-spewing monstrosity” the campaign quickly became. “Only a decade ago, former Premier Ralph Klein’s native background was just an interesting fact. Now a leader has to mention it to prove she’s no racist,” he writes, referring to Smith’s post-bozo-eruption press conference. “This is not progress.” There are real, important policy differences between the Wildrose and PCs, Braid laments, but by election day they had been all but “obscured … with mud.”

On his Maclean’s blog, Colby Cosh argues it’s not inconceivable that “social liberals” might vote Wildrose despite its population of social illiberals — just as “social conservatives who want to vote for the Wildrose must somehow be prepared to tolerate voting for a pro-abortion, pro-gay premier.” Suffice to say, tough choices are in play for just about all Albertans. Polls show the Liberals falling off a cliff. And “anybody at all who wants to vote PC must be prepared to tolerate the perpetuation of a government that has taken, and aggressively hidden the evidence of, well-documented illegal kickbacks for party purposes from schools, municipalities, and healthcare,” says Cosh — an “offence [that] is objectively worse than Adscam.”
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  #266  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2012, 9:38 PM
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I'm off to the polling station, hopefully my riding stays Liberal, but I'm not getting my hopes up.
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  #267  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2012, 9:43 PM
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I have a bad feeling about tonight. I'm a Redford supporter.
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  #268  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2012, 10:29 PM
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Originally Posted by gammell View Post
As for Hunsperger, the quote that always gets truncated reads: "You see, you can live the way you were born, and if you die the way you were born then you will suffer the rest of eternity in the lake of fire, hell, a place of eternal suffering." Notice that the sentence doesn't actually mention gays, and that the preceding sentences don't either.
It was pretty clear what he was talking about. In the same post he even condemned the Edmonton public school board’s policy calling for a safe and welcoming environment for all students including lesbian, gay and transgender students.

Hunsperger, the founder of Heritage Christian Schools, he identifies public education as “godless,” meaning “profane or wicked.”

You can see why some people compare the wildrose to the Taliban. The policies are quite similar, and it is also no wonder why the women vote is much lower for them.
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  #269  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2012, 10:30 PM
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I have a bad feeling about tonight. I'm a Redford supporter.
It will all depend on the educated vote, the female vote and the youth vote. If these groups (and they are not distinct, of course) are motivated to vote, the PC's will be in.

Last edited by suburbia; Apr 23, 2012 at 10:45 PM.
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  #270  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2012, 11:26 PM
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I have a bad feeling about tonight. I'm a Redford supporter.
For Redford, tonight will be poor night. I suspect that she has all ready been told to resign unless its a PC majority. True Redford supporters (support the woman, not just the party) might as well catch hockey playoffs or go and enjoy the good weather.
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  #271  
Old Posted Apr 23, 2012, 11:45 PM
Tropics Tropics is offline
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It will all depend on the educated vote, the female vote and the youth vote. If these groups (and they are not distinct, of course) are motivated to vote, the PC's will be in.
I don't think the youth would favor the PC's. If anything most of them would be closer to the left these days. I just graduated from UofC and most of the people I talked to from university about the election were going to vote Wildrose.

While most people are OK with the PC party most people are REALLY sick of their leader selections of the party. Missing out on getting Jim Dinning as the leader after Klein although he was a HUGE favorite due to the idiotic "second ballot" shennanigans, the same ones that gave us Redford.

Sorry but Alberta has gotten sick of that BS, Dinning would have been worlds better then Stalmach and we all knew it and it was Dinning we wanted. Now we get Allison Redford after Mar got over 40% on the first ballot and she got just over 18%? BS, it is a dumb system and we are getting second rate leaders of this province given this idiotic system that the PC's use. Get rid of that system, get us the BEST leaders the party has available to do the job, then we can talk. But I am sick of the BS from the PC party with this type of crap over the last 6+ years and condoning it by voting PC is simply not possible, it will just justify the same BS to keep on happening.
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  #272  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2012, 12:33 AM
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It was pretty clear what he was talking about. In the same post he even condemned the Edmonton public school board’s policy calling for a safe and welcoming environment for all students including lesbian, gay and transgender students.

Hunsperger, the founder of Heritage Christian Schools, he identifies public education as “godless,” meaning “profane or wicked.”

You can see why some people compare the wildrose to the Taliban. The policies are quite similar, and it is also no wonder why the women vote is much lower for them.
Throughout Hunsperger's post he is riffing on the theme of "born this way." Who you think "born this way" refers to depends on what you see as the controlling context. If your controlling context is the church and any familiarity with contemporary Christian theology, that post says one thing. If your controlling context is Lady Gaga and the culture wars, then that post says another thing. I understand why people got it wrong, but I still believe they got it wrong.

He condemned that school board policy because from his perspective, "they believe people were "born this way" and have a right to die this way." Continuing with his theme of "born this way" vs the need for change. The way he understands the school board philosophy statement is antithetical to Christian understanding of original sin, repentance, and redemption; which is problematic for any Christian school under the Edmonton Public School Board. Matters of sexuality are what raise the conflict, but the conflict is about the underlying philosophy. Seeing that depends again on the controlling context.

Godless, wicked, profane - that is to say, "not recognizing or obeying God." How many people here would say that the latter description is desirable for public education? Probably more than a few.

Seriously, what Wildrose policies are similar to the Taliban? Maybe they're both fans of balanced budgets, but beyond that, I can't see much similarity between a Canadian brand of fiscally conservative libertarianism and an extremely rigid mix of sharia law and Pashtun tribal codes. To make that kind of comparison is just ignorant fear-mongering from people with no sense of proportion.
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  #273  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2012, 12:38 AM
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Alberta is so funny, the fight is between right and radical I don't understand that province... Is there anything to understand?
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  #274  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2012, 12:47 AM
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^ Guy, I've lived here for 20 years altogether now, and I don't understand it.

I understand that after 40 years of Conservative rule people want a change, I don't understand why the change people seem to want are a government that is even _more_ conservative.

I don't understand why people in this very thread act as apologists for a party that tolerates _obviously_ bigoted and homophobic candidates. I don't understand why there is such a good chance these very people will form the next government.

I _do_ understand why the RoC thinks we are a bunch of inbred hicks over here.
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  #275  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2012, 12:56 AM
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^ Guy, I've lived here for 20 years altogether now, and I don't understand it.

I understand that after 40 years of Conservative rule people want a change, I don't understand why the change people seem to want are a government that is even _more_ conservative.

I don't understand why people in this very thread act as apologists for a party that tolerates _obviously_ bigoted and homophobic candidates. I don't understand why there is such a good chance these very people will form the next government.

I _do_ understand why the RoC thinks we are a bunch of inbred hicks over here.
That Wildrose Party is for sure not good for Canada unity!
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  #276  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2012, 1:06 AM
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That Wildrose Party is for sure not good for Canada unity!
How so?
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  #277  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2012, 1:07 AM
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As long as my riding remains Liberal, my corner of Edmonton will still make sense to me...
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  #278  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2012, 1:20 AM
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As long as my riding remains Liberal, my corner of Edmonton will still make sense to me...
I suspect the Alberta Liberals will be on the verge of extinction in a few hours.
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  #279  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2012, 1:52 AM
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I suspect the Alberta Liberals will be on the verge of extinction in a few hours.
I suspect you are right, though I hope you are wrong.
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  #280  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2012, 1:55 AM
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Polls are closed...here we go....
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