Ottawa-Gatineau Housing Market

[Boxster]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

100K public servants... like... politicians maybe? How about CEO of crown corporation making big "performance" bonuses when they're actually in a huge hole? How about the decision makers that couldn't come up with a good idea if it bit them in the ass?

As for the NCC moving back to Wellington; the 2011 move to WEP was only temporary during renovations of the other building.

[phil235]

Originally Posted by McC

The pledge seems to include teachers, health care workers, etc., as well, so it would cover everywhere.

Is a single new idea really too much to ask for?

"Will it mean fewer teachers? It does," Mr. Hudak said answering his own question. We'll hire more nurses, we'll keep our police officers, but it will mean fewer teachers in our system."

"Mr. Hudak said it's too late to kill full-day kindergarten, the $1.5-billion a year program that will be fully implemented across Ontario this fall, but he would change it so there's no longer both a teacher and an early childhood educator in the class at the same time."


I hadn't really looked at the details until this came up here. This guy is a complete idiot. There are 30 kids in those classes. I'm pretty sure all of the research indicates that one teacher handling 30 4-year olds is the best recipe for educational success.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by phil235

Is a single new idea really too much to ask for?

"Will it mean fewer teachers? It does," Mr. Hudak said answering his own question. We'll hire more nurses, we'll keep our police officers, but it will mean fewer teachers in our system."

"Mr. Hudak said it's too late to kill full-day kindergarten, the $1.5-billion a year program that will be fully implemented across Ontario this fall, but he would change it so there's no longer both a teacher and an early childhood educator in the class at the same time."


I hadn't really looked at the details until this came up here. This guy is a complete idiot. There are 30 kids in those classes. I'm pretty sure all of the research indicates that one teacher handling 30 4-year olds is the best recipe for educational success.

His honesty is actually refreshing.

Currently in each class there is one certified teacher, making up to $90K and one Early Childhood Educator who make less than $30K (and often much less).

I would think 3 or 4 ECE's, which is more the standard in current private pre-schools, would be more effective and be much cheaper.

[McC]

surely, certified ECEs would only make less than $30K a year because they're working part time, no? (e.g., in after school programs, and special programs for PD days and summer camps and the like?)

[phil235]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

His honesty is actually refreshing.

Currently in each class there is one certified teacher, making up to $90K and one Early Childhood Educator who make less than $30K (and often much less).

I would think 3 or 4 ECE's, which is more the standard in current private pre-schools, would be more effective and be much cheaper.

Refreshing? This is Mike Harris 2.0. Perhaps you are too young to remember the divisiveness of these types of politics, but believe me, they didn't work then, and they won't work any better now.

So I take it that you are suggesting that there is no value in having a qualified teacher in these classes? That's definitely a new one. You're basically proposing that publicly-funded day care replace school for 4 and 5 year olds. This while everywhere else in the developed world is pushing the school age lower, which is consistent with the evidence that an earlier start is critical to better educational outcomes.

That's the problem with these ideas. They are presented as "common sense" to suck less engaged voters in, but they are actually so superficial that they don't stand up to even the most basic scrutiny.

By the way, using your numbers, 4 ECEs would cost the same amount as the current set up. So even the math doesn't work.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by phil235

Refreshing? This is Mike Harris 2.0. Perhaps you are too young to remember the divisiveness of these types of politics, but believe me, they didn't work then, and they won't work any better now.

So I take it that you are suggesting that there is no value in having a qualified teacher in these classes? That's definitely a new one. You're basically proposing that publicly-funded day care replace school for 4 and 5 year olds. This while everywhere else in the developed world is pushing the school age lower, which is consistent with the evidence that an earlier start is critical to better educational outcomes.

That's the problem with these ideas. They are presented as "common sense" to suck less engaged voters in, but they are actually so superficial that they don't stand up to even the most basic scrutiny.

By the way, using your numbers, 4 ECEs would cost the same amount as the current set up. So even the math doesn't work.

I don't necessarily agree with or especially trust that they will follow through with their plan, but I would prefer more caregivers and/or smaller classes than someone who is "certified". Some of the top education performers worldwide start "school" later but have universal preschool from a younger age. While 4 might be break-even and 3 would offer significant savings, it sounds more like Hudak is talking about keeping 2 caregivers. I bet they end up cancelling this year's implementation all together if they get elected.

[phil235]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

I don't necessarily agree with or especially trust that they will follow through with their plan, but I would prefer more caregivers and/or smaller classes than someone who is "certified". Some of the top education performers worldwide start "school" later but have universal preschool from a younger age. While 4 might be break-even and 3 would offer significant savings, it sounds more like Hudak is talking about keeping 2 caregivers. I bet they end up cancelling this year's implementation all together if they get elected.

Well, as someone who has a child in full day kindergarden, I can tell you that there is a huge difference between a qualified teacher and an ECE. Which you might expect, given that teachers have much higher entrance standards, education requirements and professional obligations. Your characterization of "caregiver" is accurate in the case of an ECE, but not in the case of teachers.

You've got to remember that we have had JK in place for many years. To pull a teacher out of those classes and essentially delay the start of school for two years is a big downgrade in the quality of our education system.

To cancel this year's implementation would be political dynamite. How could they possibly explain that decision to the areas that miss out?

[OTSkyline]

^ Certified teachers are there to teach, not to babysit. Hiring an ECE instead of a teacher is counter-productive. If the point is simply to save money, hire 2 or 3 babysitters and there you go, the problem (according to Hudak) is solved. Although, the Government shouldn't be spending money to babysit everyone's kid, they should be spending to EDUCATE everyone's kid...

[1overcosc]

How anyone in their right mind can support this new 100k bullshit, I have no clue.

100,000 people. That's 1/7 of the entire provincial workforce, that includes everybody from cops to firefighters to doctors to nurses to teachers to professors to researchers to social workers to psychologists. That move would do absolutely nothing to balance the budget. Eliminating so many well paying jobs would kill the economy, plus create huge social problems that would make all our current problems seem like a breeze.

And this coming from the exact same man who promises to create 1 million jobs. Yes, because it's totally mathematically possible to create jobs by destroying jobs

[phil235]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

How anyone in their right mind can support this new 100k bullshit, I have no clue.

100,000 people. That's 1/7 of the entire provincial workforce, that includes everybody from cops to firefighters to doctors to nurses to teachers to professors to researchers to social workers to psychologists. That move would do absolutely nothing to balance the budget. Eliminating so many well paying jobs would kill the economy, plus create huge social problems that would make all our current problems seem like a breeze.

And this coming from the exact same man who promises to create 1 million jobs. Yes, because it's totally mathematically possible to create jobs by destroying jobs

As the Globe pointed out, he'll now need to create 1.1 million jobs.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

100,000 people. That's 1/7 of the entire provincial workforce,

Government's news release puts workforce without municipal at a little over a million (without municipal employees, which Hudak seems to count)
http://news.ontario.ca/mof/en/2012/0...otiations.html

so at most 1/10, but probably be a smaller fraction depending on how many municipal employees there are

[canabiz]

I often tune into the Real Estate & Mortgage show on CFRA on Saturday mornings with Paul Rushforth and Frank Napolitano and the guys mentioned today there are well over 2,000 condo listings right now and that does not even include new builds not listed on MLS. That's a pretty significant number and the total number of listing is fast approaching 10K.

One of the caller calling into the show also mentioned the condo rental market is quite competitive right now as some builders are renting out unsold units at cost? I don't know much about the downtown condo market but I can attest to this fact with Campanale and their stacked condos in Barrhaven (ad below is an example)

http://www.kijiji.ca/v-house-rental/...ationFlag=true

Will see how the next few months shake out as this is now the prime season for real estate transactions (military moves, nice weather etc)

[phil235]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Government's news release puts workforce without municipal at a little over a million (without municipal employees, which Hudak seems to count)
http://news.ontario.ca/mof/en/2012/0...otiations.html

so at most 1/10, but probably be a smaller fraction depending on how many municipal employees there are

Not quite sure how the provincial government would cut municipal employees, short of doing it indirectly by starving municipalities of funding.

An equally big concern is the state of public infrastructure. With big tax cuts and cuts to the public service, that infrastructure, including transit infrastructure is going to continue to be neglected.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by canabiz

I often tune into the Real Estate & Mortgage show on CFRA on Saturday mornings with Paul Rushforth and Frank Napolitano and the guys mentioned today there are well over 2,000 condo listings right now and that does not even include new builds not listed on MLS. That's a pretty significant number and the total number of listing is fast approaching 10K.

One of the caller calling into the show also mentioned the condo rental market is quite competitive right now as some builders are renting out unsold units at cost? I don't know much about the downtown condo market but I can attest to this fact with Campanale and their stacked condos in Barrhaven (ad below is an example)

http://www.kijiji.ca/v-house-rental/...ationFlag=true

Will see how the next few months shake out as this is now the prime season for real estate transactions (military moves, nice weather etc)

Not to mention the backlog of unbuilt approvals. Just how many builds out there are approved but no sales are happening yet?

Is there a time limit that builders have to use their approvals after they get them? Or can they get a building approved and sit on that approval for decades?

[TOexpat]

This site is pretty useful for succinctly putting out some objective information on the market trends. I contrast this with the many RE agents who some how try to positively spin the current state of the market. I follow the downtown market closely and there have been some pretty dramatic price cuts on units that refuse to budge. I don't have access to actual sales, but would love to see if anything at all is moving. Seems that the same units are just sitting stagnant. If they do come off market they often just reappear a few weeks later. Would not want to be a seller right now, as there is very little reason to be optimistic.

Here is useful site:

http://www.hometeamottawa.com/stats.asp

Originally Posted by canabiz

I often tune into the Real Estate & Mortgage show on CFRA on Saturday mornings with Paul Rushforth and Frank Napolitano and the guys mentioned today there are well over 2,000 condo listings right now and that does not even include new builds not listed on MLS. That's a pretty significant number and the total number of listing is fast approaching 10K.

One of the caller calling into the show also mentioned the condo rental market is quite competitive right now as some builders are renting out unsold units at cost? I don't know much about the downtown condo market but I can attest to this fact with Campanale and their stacked condos in Barrhaven (ad below is an example)

http://www.kijiji.ca/v-house-rental/...ationFlag=true

Will see how the next few months shake out as this is now the prime season for real estate transactions (military moves, nice weather etc)

[canabiz]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Not to mention the backlog of unbuilt approvals. Just how many builds out there are approved but no sales are happening yet?

Is there a time limit that builders have to use their approvals after they get them? Or can they get a building approved and sit on that approval for decades?

I am not sure how easy it is to get this kind of information. The last thing you want to hear in this softening market is how long the builders have been sitting on a project...

Off the top of my head (my folks live in the area so I frequently drive by), I don't believe we have seen sales for the Uno Towns project on Rochester and Balsam (by Fanto Group) even though the area has been fenced off for the past couple of years.

Another project in Chinatown that didn't get off the ground is the one at the corner of Booth and Somerset Street West

http://www.obj.ca/Real-Estate/Reside...ks-and-wires/1

[canabiz]

I wonder if the softening market will have a ripple effect on the number of realtors dropping out or maybe not as we are seeing in this article.

http://business.financialpost.com/20...bubble-agents/

I know the Usher Group (one of the more well-known discount brokerage firm in the city) only had a handful of agents when we listed with them 2 years ago and now they have almost 20!

[canabiz]

The guys on the radio show this morning mentioned there are well over 2,000 condo listings on the market right now and the total number of listings are approaching 10K. It is definitely a buyers' market out there.

They also touched on the fact new college/university graduates are facing a lot of uncertainty in the job market. Yes the Baby Boomer will/should be retiring soon but we have heard about this for almost 10 years and many of them are still in the workforce, for a variety of reasons.

Lots of folks are taking on the wait-and-see approach and will wait for the provincial and federal election results before committing to big financial decisions like upsizing.

[McC]

Originally Posted by canabiz

. It is definitely a buyers' market out there.

Depends on where and at what price point, there are still multiple offer / bidding wars going on in Hintonburg and WestWelli on houses in the 5-600K range. There may be other niches where the demand is higher than the limited available supply.

[canabiz]

Originally Posted by McC

Depends on where and at what price point, there are still multiple offer / bidding wars going on in Hintonburg and WestWelli on houses in the 5-600K range. There may be other niches where the demand is higher than the limited available supply.

Yes that is true and you can also say the same thing about other desirable neighbourhoods in Ottawa, namely Glebe, Rockcliffe Park, Old Ottawa South. Properties in attractive locations will always command a premium, in good and bad times.

A timely article here regarding the public service and Ottawa economy. It's a bit of a read so I won't copy and paste here

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-...ublic-servants