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View Poll Results: Are you worried about Ebola comming to Canada?
Yes. 20 23.26%
No. 63 73.26%
I'm not sure. 3 3.49%
Voters: 86. You may not vote on this poll

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  #61  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2014, 10:20 PM
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Ebola has already arrived in the developed world. We've contained it, even with that huge fuck up by the Dallas Hospital.

Unless you're a health care worker, or you have family/loved ones in West Africa, don't stress about it.
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  #62  
Old Posted Oct 14, 2014, 11:10 PM
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Originally Posted by bikegypsy View Post
It's called wisdom. Understand this: by panicking, worrying and throwing around all sorts of hypothesizes, you are only making things worst for yourself and, to be honest, are more part of the problem than anything else. By nail biting and loosing sleep you are making yourself miserable for something over which you have absolutely no control... Zilch! If it can make you feel better, think about the doctors and the researchers - among the best scientific minds in the world - who are working on both medications and a vaccine. My guess is that you haven't lived enough in order to realize that life is amazing right here, right now. Turn off your TV and go for a bike ride; it's a beautiful day.
The wha?

Who said I'm panicking, it's called being alert of my surroundings.

In fact I might personally benefit if certain procedures become the norm.


Reality is for me, being able to understand the daily events and putting numbers to those events puts me in an ideal situation to not panic.

Ebola is the top global concern of the planet right now.

Economically it's impossible to ignore.

Planning for high travel restrictions, decreased commonity prices, etc is a must.
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  #63  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2014, 1:32 PM
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While there is no reason to panic, we should be concerned and the world should be putting every possible effort into ending the epidemic in Africa while it is still manageable.

Sure, first-world health care practices can contain the virus as it is, but if this spreads to one the massive slums in an African megacity, things could really get out of hand. The virus will mutate, as all fast replicating organisms do. Whether it will become "airborne" or not, no one can say, but the possibility exists. Every time someone contracts ebola there are billions of opportunities for the virus to mutate into something more contagious.

Even if this possibility is remote--and it is--it's still a possibility. If it happens, there is no turning back. So do everything possible now to make sure it doesn't happen. I think we forget too easily that we're at the mercy of mother nature.
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  #64  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2014, 1:42 PM
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Originally Posted by flar View Post
While there is no reason to panic, we should be concerned and the world should be putting every possible effort into ending the epidemic in Africa while it is still manageable.

Sure, first-world health care practices can contain the virus as it is, but if this spreads to one the massive slums in an African megacity, things could really get out of hand. The virus will mutate, as all fast replicating organisms do. Whether it will become "airborne" or not, no one can say, but the possibility exists. Every time someone contracts ebola there are billions of opportunities for the virus to mutate into something more contagious.

Even if this possibility is remote--and it is--it's still a possibility. If it happens, there is no turning back. So do everything possible now to make sure it doesn't happen. I think we forget too easily that we're at the mercy of mother nature.
I do agree that we need to act now in Africa to save lives, but I find this conviction amongst that Ebola somehow has a destiny to mutate into something more deadly strange. I'm reasonably certain it doesn't have many closely related viruses that are more contagious in humans, and it's as much in the virus' interest to grow less deadly as to grow more contagious (it seems easier not to kill the host than to massively change the structure of the virus to allow it to survive outside a host for longer). If we want to fear mutation fear things like the flu, which spread very efficiently and have closely related viruses that are very deadly. Viruses are guided by the same evolutionary pressures as all other life forms, and have similar limitations. They might mutate faster, but unless there's evolutionary pressures they won't evolve any faster. It's like exposing a population to radiation, they'll mutate more, but that will probably just result in birth defects and cancer.

There is a possibility, but I remain fairly certain we're more likely to see the Ukrainian crisis spiral into a nuclear third world war.
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  #65  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2014, 1:58 PM
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Viruses have no intentions and have no desire to survive or propagate, and have no care whether the host lives or dies. Genetic mutations are completely random. The point is, there are billions of opportunities for the virus to mutate in every single host, which means the possibility of a disastrous mutation increases the more people get it.

Getting ebola is a hell of a lot worse than getting influenza.
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  #66  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2014, 2:18 PM
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Whether ebola can mutate into an airborne disease, well that depends on exactly what genetic change is required for that. I have nowhere near enough knowledge about microbiology to give the answer to that.
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  #67  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2014, 2:20 PM
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Originally Posted by flar View Post
Whether it will become "airborne" or not, no one can say, but the possibility exists. Every time someone contracts ebola there are billions of opportunities for the virus to mutate into something more contagious.
Ebola Will Not Become Airborne And Here Is Why

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Here is why Ebola won’t go airborne.

First, diseases in general, including viruses, do change which species they infect sometimes, and they change in virulence and the exact effects on the host, but they really don’t change their mode of transmission. At the largest evolutionary scale there have been some novelties, obviously (or there would be no variation!). I am pretty sure many of the influenza viruses are not transmitted through the air, but the only ones we bother to name and study do, and are a subset of a larger group that transmits via water. I may have that wrong (going on old personal communications here) but if I am wrong that just crosses off Influenza as a virus that changed mode of transmission. Ebola is in a large group of viruses that are actually found in plants. Obviously, there was a change in transmission at the origin of Ebola. But really, this does not happen very often. If you can think of examples please tell me. (For a non virus example, Malaria is transmitted the same way all the time even if it changes (rarely) which species it affects or otherwise evolves like crazy to stay ahead of interventions.)

In short, we expect strong phylogenetic inertia in mode of transmission.

Second, there is no in place mechanism, probably. Ebola does not infect the tissues it would need to infect to make its way into a sneeze or cough. That would require a major change.

Third, developmentally, the first step in a virus’s life cycle is getting itself into a cell. Airborne viruses need to have a key that matches a lock on the outside of respiratory tissues. So Ebola not only lacks the means for getting out through a sneeze or cough, it also lacks the ability to do much if it did.

Fourth, it is not adaptive. Yes, a virus can mutate to do something stupid and maybe get a Darwin Award, but the chances are at least somewhat reduced. Ebola is very deadly in humans. Humans and the animal vectors that may stand between fruit bats (the likely wild host) and humans are not good hosts for Ebola. The chances of Ebola evolving to infect an unsuitable host are reduced.

Phylogenetically unlikely, mechanistically unlikely, ontogenetically unlikely, adaptively unlikely. Evolution is like baseball but slightly different. Four Tinbergen Strikes and you are out.

Now, the usual arguments in favor of Ebola doing the Hollywood thing rely on references to other viruses, like Influenza. Well, Influenza is way different from Ebola in its reproduction. It has a whole way of evolving that Ebola does not have. In fact, the differences is greater than, potentially (and rarely, but not never) the difference between evolution under sexual reproduction and evolution under simple replication. If two different Influenza strains infect the same cell, they can recombine to make an entirely novel never before seen Influenza. That is a very big deal and is thought to be the primary mechanism for the evolution of novel dangerous flu strains. Ebola does not do that. Ebola can’t do that.

Ebola does not do that. That thing Influenza does.

I said that twice. Now I’ll say it another way. Using Influenza evolution as a model for Ebola evolution is like using Primate Behavior as a model for Sea Slug Behavior. In other words, it does not fit.

Will Ebola go airborne? No.
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  #68  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2014, 2:54 PM
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i am not that worried about ebola at this point, but i do find a lot of the online unflappability to ring a bit false.

it's always so numerical. and numbers, while seemingly the most objective thing to which one can possibly link one's opinions, do need some context sometimes.

what if a tribe of sasquatches moved down from the mountaintops, proved themselves real and began snatching people from the woods throughout british columbia? what if this continued for a year, and 2,000 people died and vancouver island residents could barely look towards their windows at night for fear of nearly-human faces grinning awful grins?

would this be frightening? or would people on the internet say "well strokes kill 13,283 canadians each year and i don't see you freaking out about that... maybe get a grip."

if people on the internet did say this, would they have a point? or is there room to consider novelty and shock as elements of a rational opinion?

are the only rational opinions the ones that are expressed coolly and dispassionately?

sasquatches are frightening, or would be if they were real.

so are the hemorrhagic fevers, i think.

Last edited by kool maudit; Oct 15, 2014 at 3:17 PM.
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  #69  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2014, 3:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Mongo62 View Post
I shouldn't have used the example of airborne, but that's the usual worse case scenario that people are talking about, which is why I put it in quotes. My point is that there are billions of possibilities for a disastrous mutation, whether it means a more contagious form of the virus, or a common and very mobile animal becomes a transmitter, or whatever. These are real possibilities.

The same people who brush off these concerns probably have a lot of unrealistic faith in science and assume a vaccine will save the day.

Look at it this way: the odds of winning the lottery are miniscule. So small that some people who think they know better ridicule those who buy lottery tickets. It's just a voluntary tax they say.

But millions of people do play the lottery and someone eventually wins the jackpot.
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  #70  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2014, 5:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kool maudit View Post
i am not that worried about ebola at this point, but i do find a lot of the online unflappability to ring a bit false.

it's always so numerical. and numbers, while seemingly the most objective thing to which one can possibly link one's opinions, do need some context sometimes.

what if a tribe of sasquatches moved down from the mountaintops, proved themselves real and began snatching people from the woods throughout british columbia? what if this continued for a year, and 2,000 people died and vancouver island residents could barely look towards their windows at night for fear of nearly-human faces grinning awful grins?

would this be frightening? or would people on the internet say "well strokes kill 13,283 canadians each year and i don't see you freaking out about that... maybe get a grip."

if people on the internet did say this, would they have a point? or is there room to consider novelty and shock as elements of a rational opinion?

are the only rational opinions the ones that are expressed coolly and dispassionately?

sasquatches are frightening, or would be if they were real.

so are the hemorrhagic fevers, i think.
It's more akin to someone being afraid of flying and pointing out that they were willing to drive to the airport which was statistically far more dangerous. Getting Ebola is far worse than getting the flu, but if you have neither and live in Canada then the flu is more likely to kill you.

On the Sasquatches front, what we have here isn't saying the people of Vancouver Island shouldn't be worried, but that if you live in Toronto or Montreal you shouldn't be barricading your house out of the belief the Sasquatches are going to steal fighter jets and start bombing major cities. We need less panic and more willingness to help the afflicted regions.
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  #71  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2014, 6:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Beedok View Post
It's more akin to someone being afraid of flying and pointing out that they were willing to drive to the airport which was statistically far more dangerous. Getting Ebola is far worse than getting the flu, but if you have neither and live in Canada then the flu is more likely to kill you.
Says who, at the current growth rate of the virus it's gonna hit canada not to far off in the future.
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  #72  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2014, 6:11 PM
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Originally Posted by flar View Post
Sure, first-world health care practices can contain the virus as it is,
This is actually a flat out lie, as is. A bit of arrogance, a bit of ignorance but mostly lies.

This goes beyond common health care practices.

There exists no common procedure for this in first world hospitals.

Yeah theoretically there is containment procedures, but the error rate is so high it's absurd to think this is an meaningful system.

At some point border lock downs and travels restrictions are crucial.

And if your smart enough to know how to do this without severely damaging world trade and maintaining civil stability, you are likely the smartest person I've ever met.

If you can read between the lines, it's quite obvious that some tough choices are right around the corner.
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  #73  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2014, 6:49 PM
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^ Nigeria & Senegal managed to stop Ebola dead in its tracks shortly after arrival through their containment procedures. If they can do that, we certainly can.
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  #74  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2014, 6:52 PM
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Just putting it out there, Ebola has not hit Asia yet, which may be another hotspot especially in large megacities. Another region the Latin Americas.
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  #75  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2014, 6:53 PM
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^ Nigeria & Senegal managed to stop Ebola dead in its tracks shortly after arrival through their containment procedures. If they can do that, we certainly can.
Once.

These episodes are now a fact of life for most of the globe.

The threat of ebola doubles in intensity every month.
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  #76  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2014, 9:18 PM
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Do Americans have any clue what they are doing? Like who the hell lets a nurse who treated an Ebola patient jump on a public airplane and travel across the country. Like nobody there seems to know what they are doing. On top of that, the nurse develops a fever before she leaves meaning there are a few people on that flight home who possibly could be at risk. Now they have to monitor those 130+ people. It just never ends with these idiots. So there's a 2nd nurse who's caught the disease , possibly more to come in the next few days... like nobody is prepared at all. They talk a big game, but the ground execution is horrible.

The US needs to get a plan in action ASAP. Everyone needs to get on the same page so this can be dealt with properly. Here's what needs to be done

1. Initiate a travel ban for all passengers traveling to and from these west Africa countries. This includes direct and in direct flights. Nobody who's been in Guinea, Sierra Leon, or Liberia can fly here. Do not ban flights for supplies, man power, etc. Just on regular people traveling for leisure. This will ensure supplies still go to these countries.

2. Develop stringent protocols for EVERY nurse to follow. This includes education, safety protocols, etc. No nurse should feel like they are winging it. Make sure they have all the right clothes, protective gear, etc.

3. Isolate EVERY contact of any ebola patient and monitor them. They cannot be allowed to leave the area at all.

4. Every nurse who cares for an Ebola patient can NEVER leave the area, and must be monitored for the 21 days.

5. Limit the number of nurses who care for Ebola patients

6. Focus on sending Ebola patients to quarantine centres with Ebola experts who are used to treating the disease

7. If needed, issue curfews for exposed areas (it worked in Nigeria)

If this was followed, Ebola would have 0 chance and be squashed.
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  #77  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2014, 9:28 PM
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Originally Posted by travis3000 View Post
1. Initiate a travel ban for all passengers traveling to and from these west Africa countries. This includes direct and in direct flights. Nobody who's been in Guinea, Sierra Leon, or Liberia can fly here. Do not ban flights for supplies, man power, etc. Just on regular people traveling for leisure. This will ensure supplies still go to these countries.

.
This is harder than you would think.

The unexpressed rule, is that travel bands make people feel trapped by the system.

If you do this people start trying to circumvent the system(find black market ways to leave the country)

Walk to Ivore coast and get a flight from there etc.

Managing these types of concerns are the real issue here, when you have a region of the world that is in total chaos known for corruption.
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  #78  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2014, 10:31 PM
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Most recent estimates say that the number of cases in Africa looks like it will double in 3 weeks.

It won't be long before someone with Ebola takes some tylenol to control their fevers before traveling to another country. And don't for one second think that nobody would ever lie to airport security to get out of that mess and back to Canada where they know they will get better health care if they really are sick.



What I find scary is reading some of these older WHO articles released back in April, where they start showing their concerns about the 100 or so people who died. They were alarmed over a few hundred cases. Take a look at the shit show it is today only 6 months later.
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  #79  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2014, 11:42 PM
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It will come to Canada, I'm just not worried about it spreading much... In its current state.
As has been said, it could potentially mutate into something very worrisome, and that chance increases with every person infected.
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  #80  
Old Posted Oct 16, 2014, 12:22 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by travis3000 View Post
The US needs to get a plan in action ASAP. Everyone needs to get on the same page so this can be dealt with properly. Here's what needs to be done

1. Initiate a travel ban for all passengers traveling to and from these west Africa countries. This includes direct and in direct flights. Nobody who's been in Guinea, Sierra Leon, or Liberia can fly here. Do not ban flights for supplies, man power, etc. Just on regular people traveling for leisure. This will ensure supplies still go to these countries.

2. Develop stringent protocols for EVERY nurse to follow. This includes education, safety protocols, etc. No nurse should feel like they are winging it. Make sure they have all the right clothes, protective gear, etc.

3. Isolate EVERY contact of any ebola patient and monitor them. They cannot be allowed to leave the area at all.

4. Every nurse who cares for an Ebola patient can NEVER leave the area, and must be monitored for the 21 days.

5. Limit the number of nurses who care for Ebola patients

6. Focus on sending Ebola patients to quarantine centres with Ebola experts who are used to treating the disease

7. If needed, issue curfews for exposed areas (it worked in Nigeria)

If this was followed, Ebola would have 0 chance and be squashed.
+1

I'm a physician and I agree with all of your recommendations. If we want to stop this thing dead in it's tracks, we need some draconian solutions.

The most important thing is to make sure that Ebola patients are only treated in a small handful of recognized expert treatment facilities. In Canada, there should be no more than 2-3 designated Ebola treatment centres. Any newly diagnosed patients would have to be transported to these centres for treatment.

All staff in these centres need rigorous training in established treatment protocols. The staff should be dedicated to treating Ebola patients only, and should have no contact with other patients. The staff need to be monitored rigorously, and if there is even the slightest hint that they could have been directly exposed to the virus then there should be a mandatory 21 day quarantine, strictly enforced and completely involuntary, under armed guard if necessary. No airplane junkets to Cleveland and back are to be allowed!!!

This may seem draconian, but this is a serious situation, and if we don't want this virus to get into the broader community, strict rules are necessary. To quote Spock, the good of the many outweighs the good of the few (or the one).
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