Getting Sudbury to 200,000 in 20 years

[swimmer_spe]

Paul Lefebvre says he wants city’s population to grow to 200,000 over the next 20 years

https://www.thesudburystar.com/news/...w-city-council

Our new mayor wants the city to grow from the current 166,000 to 200,000 or about 1700 per year.

Would it be as simple as growing the number of new houses and apartments by that number?
Are there things that could be done to draw people to the city outside of more homes?
What challenges could be facing the city if it grew to 200,000 that it does not face now?

[ScreamingViking]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

What challenges could be facing the city if it grew to 200,000 that it does not face now?

This is the key question. More though I think it's what challenges the city faces to grow to 200k.

Need: an economic draw (?) and better transportation connections to the GTA (which are happening, slowly... but I worry that will just drain Sudbury's economy if some things are readily available from the Toronto metro and more readily available if 69 fully becomes the 400)

[Loco101]

The last few mayors we've had in Timmins have all had goals of having our city's population grow. But even with all of the initiatives, immigration and international students our population has continued to shrink.

Sudbury is in a better position to at least keep its population stable. The city is big enough to offer a wide variety of activities and services.

Housing is an issue almost everywhere but there has been success at getting people from the GTA to move up North due to houses costing less. That has driven up prices somewhat here but nothing like in the GTA. There will need to be actual building of new housing of various types in order to increase population but there's no sign that will happen.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by ScreamingViking

This is the key question. More though I think it's what challenges the city faces to grow to 200k.

Need: an economic draw (?) and better transportation connections to the GTA (which are happening, slowly... but I worry that will just drain Sudbury's economy if some things are readily available from the Toronto metro and more readily available if 69 fully becomes the 400)

If I understand right, are you suggesting that if the 400 reached Sudbury, that would actually cause a shrink in population?

Originally Posted by Loco101

The last few mayors we've had in Timmins have all had goals of having our city's population grow. But even with all of the initiatives, immigration and international students our population has continued to shrink.

Sudbury is in a better position to at least keep its population stable. The city is big enough to offer a wide variety of activities and services.

Housing is an issue almost everywhere but there has been success at getting people from the GTA to move up North due to houses costing less. That has driven up prices somewhat here but nothing like in the GTA. There will need to be actual building of new housing of various types in order to increase population but there's no sign that will happen.

I have noticed that for at least the last 40 years, it seems Timmins has stayed the same size. Sudbury has grown, but not by a huge amount. That is why the idea of growth surprises me. However, the growth is less than 0.1% so, it isn't a crazy goal.

[ScreamingViking]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

If I understand right, are you suggesting that if the 400 reached Sudbury, that would actually cause a shrink in population?

I'm suggesting that if the freeway connection is continuous, there are things that can be provided from Toronto rather than local to Sudbury. There may be opportunities for the Sudbury region, but like a tentacle the highway may serve the "centre" more than the peripheral tip.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by ScreamingViking

I'm suggesting that if the freeway connection is continuous, there are things that can be provided from Toronto rather than local to Sudbury. There may be opportunities for the Sudbury region, but like a tentacle the highway may serve the "centre" more than the peripheral tip.

Could you give examples?
I am thinking of the mining sector and cannot think of any company moving to Toronto area. If anything, there may be the potential that some things that are in the GTA may move up to Sudbury due to lower costs.

[ScreamingViking]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Could you give examples?
I am thinking of the mining sector and cannot think of any company moving to Toronto area. If anything, there may be the potential that some things that are in the GTA may move up to Sudbury due to lower costs.

Centralization is a thing. What's a lower cost -- building a distribution centre in Sudbury, or serving the north from existing ones in the GTA using enhanced road transport? The math is not fair for the North, I'm sorry to say.

For the record, I live in a city west of Toronto. Many of our services are provided via Toronto, though we're not one of its "official" suburbs. It just makes financial sense for the companies providing those services to do so out of Toronto rather than a branch office in Hamilton.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by ScreamingViking

Centralization is a thing. What's a lower cost -- building a distribution centre in Sudbury, or serving the north from existing ones in the GTA using enhanced road transport? The math is not fair for the North, I'm sorry to say.

For the record, I live in a city west of Toronto. Many of our services are provided via Toronto, though we're not one of its "official" suburbs. It just makes financial sense for the companies providing those services to do so out of Toronto rather than a branch office in Hamilton.

If we are talking about manufacturing things for the GTA market or for their factories; I agree 100% with you. However, if we are talking manufacturing things for the mining, or forestry or other sectors that are more prevalent in Sudbury and Northern ON that financial sense no longer applies. Interestingly, some of the major manufacturers for the mining sector are in North Bay, such as Redpath. They are there due to lower cost of land.

[Innsertnamehere]

Sudbury has actually been growing at a relatively decent clip over the last few years. It's possible if current growth rates continue.

The 400 running to Sudbury will be nothing but good news as a continuous freeway will make connections easier and faster. Sudbury used to be a solid 4 hours from the GTA, once the 400 is done it will be closer to 3.5.

Sudbury has long acted as the "gateway to the north" and that should help it's economy, not hinder it.

If Sudbury has to figure anything out it's its crazy dispersed population model, and cleaning up it's downtown.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

Sudbury has actually been growing at a relatively decent clip over the last few years. It's possible if current growth rates continue.

The 400 running to Sudbury will be nothing but good news as a continuous freeway will make connections easier and faster. Sudbury used to be a solid 4 hours from the GTA, once the 400 is done it will be closer to 3.5.

Sudbury has long acted as the "gateway to the north" and that should help it's economy, not hinder it.

If Sudbury has to figure anything out it's its crazy dispersed population model, and cleaning up it's downtown.

So, how do you fix this?

[thewave46]

To get Sudbury to 200,000 in 20 years.

At current growth rates (~3%) it hits ~190k in 2041 from 2021. Essentially, one would have to hit just over 4% growth in between censuses to hit 200k.

Admittedly, not exactly super-difficult.

So, what could do that? Well, an easy one would be to do what has been happening for the last little while. Cash-in on people cashing out of Southern Ontario, especially those who had family connections in this region already. Continue luring people from other places in Northern Ontario who have family ties up here to Sudbury, where they can pursue a bigger-city career but yet be within automobile travel reach of their hometown.

So yes, the 400 extension helps. So does improving Ontario Northland. Lots are still sort-of cheap and there's lots of land for SFH and mid-plexes on our arterial roads in the city.

Downtown Sudbury died awhile ago, when they foisted the Eaton Centre/super-sized redevelopment/suburbia on it. At this juncture, downtown needs human-scale redevelopment. Which means vacant blighted buildings come down and smaller-scale apartments/homes go up. It is unlikely to happen and the current culture of the city doesn't support it. So, it rots.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by thewave46

To get Sudbury to 200,000 in 20 years.

At current growth rates (~3%) it hits ~190k in 2041 from 2021. Essentially, one would have to hit just over 4% growth in between censuses to hit 200k.

Admittedly, not exactly super-difficult.

So, what could do that? Well, an easy one would be to do what has been happening for the last little while. Cash-in on people cashing out of Southern Ontario, especially those who had family connections in this region already. Continue luring people from other places in Northern Ontario who have family ties up here to Sudbury, where they can pursue a bigger-city career but yet be within automobile travel reach of their hometown.

So yes, the 400 extension helps. So does improving Ontario Northland. Lots are still sort-of cheap and there's lots of land for SFH and mid-plexes on our arterial roads in the city.

Downtown Sudbury died awhile ago, when they foisted the Eaton Centre/super-sized redevelopment/suburbia on it. At this juncture, downtown needs human-scale redevelopment. Which means vacant blighted buildings come down and smaller-scale apartments/homes go up. It is unlikely to happen and the current culture of the city doesn't support it. So, it rots.

Would you say that if the city were to find a way to revitalize the downtown core that it would be what is needed most to grow the city?

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by swimmer_spe

Would you say that if the city were to find a way to revitalize the downtown core that it would be what is needed most to grow the city?

What kind of growth do you want?

If just sheer numbers...no, downtown is a write-off. Just subsidize SFH development in the Valley/Chelmsford if the end goal is simply just to get up to a certain population number for reasons.

If you want to make reuse of an already serviced area of the city? Ok, downtown starts making more sense. It's just that what's built there isn't really conducive to repurposing. It's either too big or too single-focused on commercial for small-scale redevelopment. You have to go through the PITA of bulldozing stuff to get something that people can work with at small scale.

Land isn't that scarce in the city, nor are homes so expensive as to drive the scale of development needed to make ripping stuff down for condos/apartments really make sense. Nor is downtown a node for much other than government (now largely WFH) these days.

[ericmacm]

I think the answer is a combination of infrastructure and livability. Finishing the 400 to Sudbury is the biggest and most obvious priority for getting to this point. Improving the quality and safety of the highway connection to the rest of the network and improving travel times to/from the GTA/Barrie will make it more of an option (both for living and travel) for more people. Additionally, as part of the 400 extension, multiple additional OnRoute locations should be opened north of Barrie. Their importance and usefulness along the 401 and the 400 from Toronto-Barrie cannot be understated and they significantly improve the long-haul travel experience.

As for livability, the answer is also obvious - allowing for the development of mid-density rental buildings in most areas, higher density rental buildings in the downtown area, and opening up more lands for subdivisions, so lots of options are available for potential new residents. I do not believe that Sudbury is ready for condo developments and will find more success prioritizing rentals. I also think it would be beneficial to create some sizeable commercial/industrial zones along 69/400 and the SW/SE Bypasses. These areas won’t develop as quickly as commercial/industrial land in the GTA/GGH/SW Ontario, but it would give companies a foothold to more easily expand into Northern Ontario along its new lifeline if they want. The new proposed provincial zoning regulations should help with increasing the amount of developments that are shovel-ready. Any growth should also be directed towards the core urban area instead of Sudbury’s far-flung peripheral regions. I hope the province ends up giving Sudbury a quota for the # of new homes to build like most other cities under this new legislation.

I really think that Sudbury is ripe for growth and will begin to really accelerate once Barrie/Simcoe area gets more populated, similar to what is happening with Windsor now that London and Kitchener are starting to get huge, which is a comparable travel distance from Toronto.

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by thewave46

What kind of growth do you want?

If just sheer numbers...no, downtown is a write-off. Just subsidize SFH development in the Valley/Chelmsford if the end goal is simply just to get up to a certain population number for reasons.

If you want to make reuse of an already serviced area of the city? Ok, downtown starts making more sense. It's just that what's built there isn't really conducive to repurposing. It's either too big or too single-focused on commercial for small-scale redevelopment. You have to go through the PITA of bulldozing stuff to get something that people can work with at small scale.

Land isn't that scarce in the city, nor are homes so expensive as to drive the scale of development needed to make ripping stuff down for condos/apartments really make sense. Nor is downtown a node for much other than government (now largely WFH) these days.

I am not the mayor so I do not know what he wants.

What I want would be healthy growth that increases the tax base without also increasing the costs in the city. I would much rather see a vibrant downtown than endless SFHs in the Valley. If anything, I'd like to see a 10+ story tower in the Valley instead of SFH.

[Dengler Avenue]

Now the talks about 400 get me wondering:
North Bay has been linked with a divided highway for a decade now. Why is it struggling to keep its current 54K population?

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

Now the talks about 400 get me wondering:
North Bay has been linked with a divided highway for a decade now. Why is it struggling to keep its current 54K population?

My hometown is weird....

As a kid it was 52,000 on the sign. Then it somehow got to 56,000.

In the last decade or so, there have been a few industrial places close that could have caused the drop.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

Now the talks about 400 get me wondering:
North Bay has been linked with a divided highway for a decade now. Why is it struggling to keep its current 54K population?

Because the former major employers CFB North Bay and Ontario Northland are shadows of their former selves? The university/college doesn’t pull in the students it used to? The remaining industrial base withers, leaving the province and hospital as the major employers.

I have a soft spot for North Bay. I liked living there, but it was transitioning to ‘large retirement community’, regardless of divided highway. Heck, Highway 11 was already mostly four-laned already from the city to Powassan and Huntsville southwards, so it wasn’t like Highway 69 circa the 1990s.

[Dengler Avenue]

Originally Posted by thewave46

Because the former major employers CFB North Bay and Ontario Northland are shadows of their former selves? The university/college doesn’t pull in the students it used to? The remaining industrial base withers, leaving the province and hospital as the major employers.

I have a soft spot for North Bay. I liked living there, but it was transitioning to ‘large retirement community’, regardless of divided highway. Heck, Highway 11 was already mostly four-laned already from the city to Powassan and Huntsville southwards, so it wasn’t like Highway 69 circa the 1990s.

Then these are issues that Sudbury needs to avoid. The fiasco with Laurentian U was a scary one.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

Then these are issues that Sudbury needs to avoid. The fiasco with Laurentian U was a scary one.

Sudbury and North Bay are different in certain senses, so what unduly affects one doesn't necessarily affect the other the same.

Sudbury's economy runs deeper (pardon the pun). There is literally economic activity here that can't be relocated (mines) and it is unlikely that Vale or Glencore (mining companies) will abandon billion-plus dollar smelter operations. They provide for a whole ecosystem of industrial suppliers. Now, that doesn't make the city immune to problems cause by low commodity prices, but it does sort of guarantee a private-sector industrial backbone to the city.

The other benefit to Sudbury is that the Canada Revenue Agency in Ottawa is farming out low-end, but bilingual-requirement jobs here. This is because the city has a reasonably high bilingual population and the ability to hop between federal jobs is limited here, helping retain employees. Then, there's the fact that the city acts as the regional hub for health services. Laurentian is important, but a minor player in the grand scheme of things.

North Bay's raison d'etre was centred around being a transport hub (Ontario Northland Rail/former CN line) and the location of NORAD's Canadian operations during the Cold War. They hollowed out a granite hill and built an underground base/shelter during the Cold War just for that purpose. Once the Cold War ended, the money to keep that scale of operation dried up, and the base was downsized and moved to surface.

Ontario Northland has always kind of been a marginal interest topic for the province. The industrial base of the city was always much more tenuous and could be relocated/downsized more easily. That left the Province of Ontario regional offices, hospital, and Nipissing/Canadore as the city's economic base. Great, unless the Province is having fiscal issues. At least it is attracting residents regardless of their motivation. Beats a lot of other places in Northern Ontario.